Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Pfizer -- May 3, 2022

Link here.


PFE
: profit, revenue soar on Covid-19 vaccine sales (EUA and Comirnaty).

Dividend history:


Disclaimer
: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here
.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Busy, Busy Day Tomorrow -- May 3, 2022

This Wednesday, link here:

Spare Capacity? What Spare Capacity? May 3, 2022

Link here.

US days of crude oil, supply, link here:

  • at 26.4 days, still above the historic norm, late 1990s to 2014.

SCCO Increases Dividend -- Reports May 4, 2022

Current dividend for SCCO:

  • $1.00, record date, 2/15/22; pay date, 3/2/22

One can see dividend history here.

I hope I'm not misreading this. From daily dividend announcements today

  • Dividend increase to $1.25, record date 5/17/22 and pay date of 5/31/22.

That's a 25% increase in the dividend.

Earnings?

Yahoo!Finance calendar says earning should have been announced at 4:00 p.m. today, May 3, 2022, but I haven't seen them yet. Over at nasdaq.com, the company is to report earnings tomorrow, May 4, 2022, time unannounced. Estimates, EPS of 98 cents; same quarter last year, 99 cents.

So, that's all I know.

Headlines:

  • Southern Copper Cuajone mine back to full output as protester talks loom
  • Southern Copper reports 10% copper production decline in 1Q22
  • says net income up on higher metal prices

Back of the proverbial envelope:

  • today's close: $62.76; up 1.4%
  • 52-week high: $83.29
  • pays 6.37% ($4/62.76)
  • with increase, $5/62.76 = 8%
  • going the other way:
  • $5 is 6.37% of what? $78

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

North Texas. DFW.. 100°F This Weekend? -- May 3, 2022

Link here. There will be rolling brownouts. I’ll be swimming.

Destiny With Default -- May 3, 2022

Invasion: end of February, 2022.

May, 2022: sanctions have barely had time to impact Russia and here we have an update of Russia's destiny with default, link here:

Vladimir Putin has been forced to raid Russia’s dollar reserves to pay creditors in a U-turn that has staved off the country’s first international default since the Bolshevik revolution.

Investors started to receive $650m of late payments on two bonds on Tuesday as part of a last-gasp bid to avoid a formal default before a deadline elapsed on Wednesday.

The interest payments on the bonds have faced intense scrutiny since the Kremlin missed them in early April after the money was caught up in Western sanctions.

Those dollars would be desperately needed to buy "stuff" to keep rigs operating in the oil fields, assuming Russia can even buy western goods. Probably not. But "spending" dollars to meet bond debts suggests how bad things are in Russia.  

The bigger risk: no dollars? Not being able to buy wheat if there's a "food crisis."

Four New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed -- May 3, 2022

And it begins:

Energy transition is dead (we just don't know it) -- Peter Zeihan:

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

NOG:

The Bakken is back: link here.


Active rigs:

$103.50
5/3/202205/03/202105/03/202005/03/201905/03/2018
Active Rigs3816306362

Four new permits, #38922 - #38925, inclusive:

  • Operators: Oasis (3), Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Todd (Williams); Murphy Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Lime Rock has a single permit for a well in Murphy Creek,
      •  to be sited in NWNW 17-143-95; 554 FNL and 448 FWL
    • Oasis has three permits inside Williston city limits, SWSE 22-154-101; 
      • it looks like the Kestrel wells will be sited just south of Williston city limits, unless the city boundaries have been extended; the horizontals, I assume, will run south of the city, under the river;
      • to be sited between 939 FSL and 948 FSL and between 2255 FEL and 2320 FEL;

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • BR (8): one Ole permit (McKenzie); two Patton permits (Dunn); two Sandie permits (McKenzie), two Shafer permits (McKenzie), and one Croff permit (McKenzie),
  • Rimrock (8): four Skunk Creek permits (Dunn); three FBIR Johnson permits (Dunn); and, one Two Shields Butte permit (Dunn)

Seven EOG wells were acquired by Prima Exploration, all in Mountrail County:

  • 18150: Clearwater
  • 18648: Clearwater
  • 19479: Clayton
  • 17780: Crowfoot
  • 18669: Crowfoot
  • 18391: James Hill
  • 18585: James Hill

Everything But The Bakken -- May 3, 2022

Earnings

AMD:

PFE: profit, revenue soar on Covid-19 vaccine sales (EUA and Comirnaty).

BAX:  increases dividend.


F:

MPC:

Apple: longtime Ford engineer joins Apple car team.

Desi Ujkashevic has been with Ford for over 30 years, and she has expertise in safety systems, engineering design deliverables, body interior engineering, and more.

Apple is said to be aiming for a 2025 launch, but issues with the car development could push the project back to as late as 2028. 

It's gonna be a really, really thin car.

Hood: link here

Spring Note From Mr Vern Whitten -- Unofficial Official/Honorary Photographer For The Blog -- LOL -- May 3, 2022

This is pretty cool. 

Vern Whitten has shared a lot of great albums of the Bakken, North Dakota, and Minnesota over the years. 

This spring Mr Whitten has done something a bit different: how he can "fix" photos.

This is very, very clever. I was immediately of our photos from our family reunion last summer in Montana -- how they could be improved.

Check this out. Pretty cool.

From Mr Whitten -- 

Good evening -- 

Is it possible to get more than 80 people to smile, open their eyes, and pay attention for a photo all at the same time? Welcome to tripod tricks and more, and see for yourself: 

https://www.vernwhittenphotography.com/photofix 

 Got a favorite photo that needs help? Let me know. We fix photos. 

Vern would love to hear from you.

There is a tag at the bottom of the post; click on it to see more of Vern's photos of the Bakken. 

Mr Whitten would love to hear from you. 

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com

(701) 261-7658

Natural Gas At $8 -- Perfect Storm -- May 3, 2022

For the archives. I have little interest whether its $4, $8, or $20 (not to be taken out of context). I think the story is fascinating. And the story is only going to get more interesting. 

I'm still taken by the irony of all of this. Had the US government killed the natural gas industry like it has killed the crude oil pipeline story, Europe would be in a huge world of pain. 

Only through serendipity were all those export terminals approved and constructed between 2016 and 2021, and now new projects will pretty much be rushed through the approval process as long as they are not in the backyard of any really important person.

LNG maintenance reduced gas export volumes in April by 8%, according to Refinitiv vessel tracking data, as Sempra (SRE) and Freeport LNG both took trains down for 2-3 weeks of maintenance
However, as maintenance wraps up in May, export volumes are set to accelerate. Outside the US, Chevron and BP both flagged falling international LNG production volumes in Q2
Maintenance outside the US is likely to increase reliance Gulf of Mexico exports into Europe during the quarter.

Domestically, it's still early in the earnings season; however, gas producer SM Energy flagged falling Q2 production volumes. Pioneer, Diamondback and Hess's US business all flagged declining Q2 volumes as well. While the latter three are more economically exposed to oil, each company produces a significant portion of associated gas.

Although US natural gas supply growth is curtailed, or declining temporarily, demand is strong. A heat wave has led the Energy Reliability Council of Texas "ERCOT" to forecast record seasonal demand for power this weekend. Meanwhile, alternative fuel sources, namely coal, are becoming increasingly expensive. It's well understood that seaborne thermal coal prices have reached record levels following Russia's invasion of Ukraine; however, US in-basin pricing is also hitting decade highs east of the Mississippi (ARLP) (ARCH).

US Shale With Plethora Of Problems -- David Messler -- May 3, 2022

Getting back to this story that was posted  late last night:

Another great article by David Messler. I'll link it now for night owls (is that not redundant), snowy owls and barn owls in time zones different than mine, and will come back to the article tomorrow. 

It's a great article, but I do have a pet peeve with one of the sub-themes. 

The article was very long; I scanned through it quickly. It came down to three issues:

  • rig count;
  • DUCs;
  • work force.

Of the three, rig count seemed to be the major theme, and in a sense all three were intertwined -- rig count, DUCs, and work force.

Working backwards, lack of work force --> unable to increase drilling rigs --> more reliance on DUCs. 

I was going to write more about this, including my pet peeve with articles like this, but I'm getting tired of this. It become tedious. I might come back to this. But not now. Too much to do.

********************
The Book Page

Christ of Saint John of the Cross.

Link here.

Norway: Energy Transition Meets Reality -- Not Gonna Happen In My Investing Lifetime -- May 3, 2022

Re-posting; this regards arguably the "most green" country in the world.

Norway: rocky road ahead for Norway's $1.2 trillion wealth fund:

  • Norway ordered the fund to first freeze and then divest its Russian assets, worth some 27 billion crowns ($2.85 billion) and equivalent to 0.2% of its total value at the end of 2021, after Moscow began its “special military operation” in Ukraine.However, the fund has not yet begun selling,
  • fund manager said, adding that he did not know when this would be possible as the Moscow market was not functioning well with traded volumes not large enough for its needs.
  • remember all those stories that this wealth fund was going to dump oil stocks; go "all" green? Look at this:
    • the fund took its first ever direct stake in a renewable energy project, a Dutch wind farm, in April last year, but has not done so since.
    • even though the fund has a mandate from parliament to invest up to 2% of its total value in renewables, it would take some time as competition was fierce and “good prospects (are) hard to find” 

Clearing Out A Very, Very Cluttered, Overflowing In-Box; Norway: Reality Sucks -- Energy Transition Meets Reality -- May 3, 2022

NIO: in trouble. Related to Covid-19 factory shutdowns. Transitory or deeper problems?

  • NIO’s April deliveries dropped off steeply.
  • Year-over-year delivery growth went negative for the first time.

EVs, Barron's: combined, the three delivered about 18,000 vehicles in April. 

  • That's the worse monthly result since 2021 --  NIO, Li, xPeng. Link here

Oil:

Norway: rocky road ahead for Norway's $1.2 trillion wealth fund:

  • Norway ordered the fund to first freeze and then divest its Russian assets, worth some 27 billion crowns ($2.85 billion) and equivalent to 0.2% of its total value at the end of 2021, after Moscow began its “special military operation” in Ukraine.However, the fund has not yet begun selling,
  • fund manager said, adding that he did not know when this would be possible as the Moscow market was not functioning well with traded volumes not large enough for its needs.
  • remember all those stories that this wealth fund was going to dump oil stocks; go "all" green? Look at this:
    • the fund took its first ever direct stake in a renewable energy project, a Dutch wind farm, in April last year, but has not done so since.
    • even though the fund has a mandate from parliament to invest up to 2% of its total value in renewables, it would take some time as competition was fierce and “good prospects (are) hard to find” 

Buffett / CVX: why Buffett bought Chevron 

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 3, 2022

Buffett / CVX: why Buffett bought Chevron

Marginal barrel: not likely coming from US in the future.

ISO NE, link here: early Tuesday morning

  • demand: 12,709 MW, moderate
  • 6th decile; $120 / MHh
  • marginal fuel: natural gas but hydro demand at 14%
  • wind: a pitiful 0.07 x 0.06 = 0.4% -- in other words, "no" wind this morning

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Blizzard, aftermath: electricity still out for many in the Bakken

ND coal plant: stayin' alive!

  • ND's largest coal-fired power plant has new owner; Bismarck-based Rainbow Energy finalizes purchase of Coal Creek Station; 1,150-megawatt power plant.

Active rigs:

$103.90
5/3/202205/03/202105/03/202005/03/201905/03/2018
Active Rigs3816306362

Tuesday, May 3, 2022: 10 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 235 for one year

  • 37668, conf, Whiting, Lacey 14-3-2XH, nnice well, Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 100K 3/22;
  • 30260, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-2, Alkali Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy: trio of projects target carbon capture from midwest ethanol plants, part 8.

Carbon-capture projects have been slow to take root in the U.S., but that may be changing as a number of companies are now advancing plans to capture the carbon dioxide that results from ethanol production in the Midwest. Ethanol plants are an obvious choice, given that the CO2 resulting from ethanol fermentation is highly concentrated, which makes capturing it more efficient (and less expensive) compared to many other industrial processes. But while the relative ease and economy of capturing those emissions might seem like a no-brainer, convincing the public to go along with those plans has been more difficult. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what’s being planned.