Locator: 46746ARCHIVES.
The Grammys -- 2024.
I think there was something for everyone.
But for me, one special "moment."
That's all I'll say. I don't need the push back.
*********************************
Tunnel
*******************
The Sports Page
Major League Soccer.
World Cup.
NYC.
Dallas.
Perfect, perfect choice.
Inspired.
*********************
Music Again
An Amazon Original.
It's been out for years.
It's worth the annual subscription.
The Music of 007.
Locator: 46745CLR.
Tell that to Harold Hamm.
Remember, "they" don't drill wells with EURs less than a million bbls.
Locator: 46744QUALE.
The CLR Quale / Quale Federal wells are tracked here.
Coming off confidential list this next week.
The wells:
The maps:
Production history for earlier Quale wells:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 11-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 10-2023 | 26 | 1437 | 1625 | 998 | 4001 | 3670 | 0 |
| SANISH | 9-2023 | 30 | 1890 | 1870 | 1493 | 5323 | 4918 | 0 |
| SANISH | 8-2023 | 31 | 2137 | 2143 | 1598 | 5390 | 4971 | 0 |
| SANISH | 7-2023 | 31 | 2068 | 2080 | 1599 | 3998 | 3579 | 0 |
| SANISH | 6-2023 | 21 | 1181 | 1294 | 736 | 2355 | 2092 | 0 |
| SANISH | 5-2023 | 31 | 2020 | 1870 | 1445 | 5235 | 4816 | 0 |
| SANISH | 4-2023 | 30 | 2016 | 2096 | 1534 | 5250 | 4853 | 0 |
| SANISH | 3-2023 | 31 | 2206 | 2125 | 1733 | 5324 | 4917 | 0 |
| SANISH | 2-2023 | 28 | 2178 | 2177 | 1746 | 5218 | 4840 | 0 |
Locator: 46743ECON.
Updates
February 5, 2024: CAT surges.
Original Post
I don't have the energy to tackle this debate tonight.
But I don't want to lose it. So I will link the two op-eds and come back to them later (perhaps).
Regardless, these will be nice for the archives.
First, my two cents with regard to the economy:
Now, The WSJ, link here, in response to Paul Krugman, below.
Her lead?
It's all about budget airlines. Apparently that's where most Americans now spend their money.
In case you missed the White House memo, the U.S. economy is fantastic. It’s never been better. Stock prices and jobs are booming. Inflation and mortgage rates are falling. Happy days are here again. Yet many Americans remain unhappy. What gives?
One explanation could be that government measures of inflation don’t fully reflect rising prices. Sure, headline inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but these statistics can be deceiving.
Shrinkflation, paying the same price for noticeably smaller quantities of the same thing, isn’t appearing only in the grocery aisle. It’s everywhere. Americans may be paying around the same prices as they did a year ago, but they are often getting less.
Take airline fares, which the Labor Department’s consumer-price index shows fell 9.4% during 2023. That sounds nice, until you consider that the calculation heavily weighs the “lowest available fare” for a trip—typically offered by budget airlines, which require customers to pay more to bring a carry-on and select a seat in basic economy. Flyers also get less legroom and a charge for beverages or snacks.
Now, NYT, link here.
Krugmans' lead:
Contrary to what you may have heard, this is not a “Goldilocks economy” — get your children’s stories right, folks!
Goldilocks found a bowl of porridge that was neither too hot nor too cold.
We have an economy that is both piping hot (in terms of growth and job creation) and refreshingly cool (in terms of inflation).
Hence the Fed’s dilemma. It increased interest rates in an attempt to reduce inflation, even though this risked causing a recession.
Now that inflation has plunged, should it quickly reverse those rate hikes, or should rates remain high because we have not, in fact, had a recession (yet)? I believe that the risk of an economic slowdown is much higher than that of resurgent inflation and that rate cuts should come sooner rather than later.
But that’s not the kind of argument that’s going to be settled on the opinion pages. What I want to talk about, instead, is what the good economic news says about policy and politics.
*******************************
Street Cred
Allysia Finley:
Paul Krugman:
Paul Robin Krugman born February 28, 1953, is an American economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and a columnist for The New York Times. In 2008, Krugman was the sole winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to new trade theory and new economic geography. The Prize Committee cited Krugman's work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic distribution of economic activity, by examining the effects of economies of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services.
Krugman was previously a professor of economics at MIT, and, later, at Princeton University. He retired from Princeton in June 2015, and holds the title of professor emeritus there. He also holds the title of Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics. Krugman was President of the Eastern Economic Association in 2010, and is among the most influential economists in the world. He is known in academia for his work on international economics (including trade theory and international finance), economic geography, liquidity traps, and currency crises.
Krugman is the author or editor of 27 books, including scholarly works, textbooks, and books for a more general audience, and has published over 200 scholarly articles in professional journals and edited volumes. He has also written several hundred columns on economic and political issues for The New York Times, Fortune and Slate. A 2011 survey of economics professors named him their favorite living economist under the age of 60. According to the Open Syllabus Project, Krugman is the second most frequently cited author on college syllabi for economics courses. As a commentator, Krugman has written on a wide range of economic issues including income distribution, taxation, macroeconomics, and international economics. Krugman considers himself a modern liberal, referring to his books, his blog on The New York Times, and his 2007 book The Conscience of a Liberal. His popular commentary has attracted widespread praise and criticism.
Locator: 46740OASIS.
Coming off confidential list this next week:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 24907 | 16281 |
| 11-2023 | 20825 | 13254 |
| 10-2023 | 24319 | 15279 |
| 9-2023 | 22008 | 12709 |
| 8-2023 | 7393 | 4546 |
Halo effect: some subtle hint.
The maps:
Locator: 46739ERF.
Wells coming off confidential list this next week:
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 10430 | 10418 |
| 11-2023 | 23105 | 20284 |
| 10-2023 | 27121 | 21276 |
| 9-2023 | 23381 | 21336 |
| 8-2023 | 7306 | 6158 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 15110 | 14311 |
| 11-2023 | 17115 | 14583 |
| 10-2023 | 21273 | 16772 |
| 9-2023 | 28472 | 22071 |
| 8-2023 | 16923 | 7731 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 28681 | 18528 |
| 11-2023 | 27507 | 16991 |
| 10-2023 | 28936 | 21930 |
| 9-2023 | 28494 | 23081 |
| 8-2023 | 9860 | 4942 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 23500 | 23113 |
| 11-2023 | 25123 | 21613 |
| 10-2023 | 27074 | 21220 |
| 9-2023 | 34925 | 26158 |
| 8-2023 | 18172 | 8616 |
The maps:
Well of interest;
Locator: 46738TECH.
With regard to the Vision Pro story below, here's the link to the full story.
Tech headlines that caught my attention and my two cents worth.
The Chinese have no one to blame but themselves:
All that talk about a chip glut in 2024? By the way, "AI chip" = Nvidia.
I think folks will be surprised to see how much consumers are willing to spend on the Vision Pro. This reminds me of the huge amount of money folks spent on personal dark rooms back in the 1960s and 1970s. as a percent of their disposable income. And then the sound rooms and personal recording studios in the 1970s and the 1980s.
Just wait until Taylor Swift starts optimizing her ERAS II tour for the Vision Pro.
Bicycles?
Apple's Tower of Power, no monitor, no keyboard, no mouse, not mobile, $8,000:
Apple monitor -- which is my #1 "desire." LOL. $6,000:
NFL quarterbacks and wide receivers:
Check out price of ocean-going cruises for a couple.
My favorite chart:
*********************
Engineers In The Field Are Going To Love The Vision Pro
For preventive maintenance.
I don't have time to talk about it now, but trust me on this one.
Locator: 46737BOOKS.
Tag: Covid, Covid-19, Fauci
I stumbled across A History of the Jews in America, Howard M. Sachar, c. 1992, in a used bookstore in Nashville, TN, some months ago.
Some time earlier I had run across to Simon Schama's The Story of the Jews, Volume Two, 1492 - 1900, or maybe it was Volume 1. Probably Volume 1 which I subsequently gave to my son-in-law as a Christmas present. He's a pastor at a small church outside Portland, Oregon.
Incredible book.
That led me to Simon Schama's most recent: Foreign Bodies: Pandemics, Vaccines, and the Health of Nations, published September 19, 2023.
That led me to Waldemar Haffkine,
... a Russian-French bacteriologist known for his pioneering work in vaccines. Haffkine was educated at the Imperial Novorossiya University and later emigrated first to Switzerland, then to France, working at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, where he developed a cholera vaccine that he tried out successfully in India.
He is recognized as the first microbiologist who developed and used vaccines against cholera and bubonic plague. He tested the vaccines on himself. Joseph Lister, named him "a saviour of humanity".
That led me to Éllie Metchnikoff,
... a zoologist from the Russian Empire of Moldavian noble ancestry best known for his pioneering research in immunology and thanatology (study of death).
He and Paul Ehrlich were jointly awarded the 1908 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine "in recognition of their work on immunity."
Mechnikov was born in a region of the Russian Empire that is today part of modern-day Ukraine to a Moldavian noble father and a Ukrainian-Jewish mother, and later on continued his career in France.
Given this complex heritage, five different nations and peoples lay claim to Metchnikoff. Despite having a mother of Jewish origin, he was baptized Russian Orthodox, although he later became an atheist.
Honoured as the "father of innate immunity", Metchnikoff was the first to discover a process of immunity called phagocytosis and the cell responsible for it, called phagocyte, specifically macrophage, in 1882. This discovery turned out to be the major defence mechanism in innate immunity, as well as the foundation of the concept of cell-mediated immunity, while Ehrlich established the concept of humoral immunity to complete the principles of immune system. Their works are regarded as the foundation of the science of immunology.
And that led me to Paul Ehrlich,
... a Nobel Prize-winning German physician and scientist who worked in the fields of hematology, immunology, and antimicrobial chemotherapy. Among his foremost achievements were finding a cure for syphilis in 1909 and inventing the precursor technique to Gram staining bacteria. The methods he developed for staining tissue made it possible to distinguish between different types of blood cells, which led to the ability to diagnose numerous blood diseases. His laboratory discovered arsphenamine (Salvarsan), the first effective medicinal treatment for syphilis, thereby initiating and also naming the concept of chemotherapy. Ehrlich popularized the concept of a magic bullet. He also made a decisive contribution to the development of an antiserum to combat diphtheria and conceived a method for standardizing therapeutic serums.[1]
And of course that led me to Albert Ludwig Sigesmund Neisseer,
... a German physician who discovered the causative agent of gonorrhea, a strain of bacteria that was named in his honour (Neisseria gonorrhoeae).
Neisser was born in the Silesian town of Schweidnitz (now Świdnica, in Poland), the son of a well-known Jewish physician, Moritz Neisser. After he completed the elementary school in Münsterberg, Neisser enrolled in the St. Maria Magdalena School in Breslau (now Wrocław, in Poland). In this school, he was a contemporary of another great name in the history of medicine, Paul Ehrlich. He obtained the Abitur in 1872.
Neisser began to study medicine at the University of Breslau, but later moved to Erlangen, Bavaria, Germany, completing his studies in 1877.
Initially Neisser wanted to be an internist, but did not find a suitable place. He found work, however as an assistant of the dermatologist Oskar Simon (1845–1892), concentrating on sexually transmitted diseases and leprosy.
During the following two years he studied and obtained experimental evidence about the pathogen for gonorrhea, Neisseria gonorrhoeae.
Neisser was also the co-discoverer of the causative agent of leprosy. In 1879 the Norwegian physician Gerhard Armauer Hansen gave to young Neisser (who had visited him in Norway to examine some 100 leprosy patients) some tissue samples of his patients. Neisser successfully stained the bacteria and announced his findings in 1880, claiming to have discovered the pathogenesis of leprosy. There was some conflict between Neisser and Hansen, because Hansen had failed to culture the organism and demonstrate unequivocally its link to leprosy, although he had observed the bacterium since 1872.
Where links are not provided, go to wiki.
Locator: 46736HEB.
I easily could have added this story as an add-on at another blog, but this story is so big for us in north Texas (aka DFW), it deserves a stand-alone blog.
The only thing I can compare HEB to is the Grand Old Oprey in Nashville.
Locator: 46735ECON.
There's hardly any reason to write any more about last week's numbers, but for the archives:
Carl:
Burnt orange: color of University of Texas - Austin.
By the way, at that same link, MarketWatch writers are now suggesting what I've been saying for quite some time -- no landing, hard or soft, but rather, a "touch and go."
If in hindsight we do have / did have a "touch and go," it looks like it occurred in 4Q23.
******************************
The Sports Page
The Philly Special.
Many analysts have since called the play one of the gutsiest play-calls in Super Bowl history.
The play was described by NFL Films as "a play that the Eagles had never called before, run on 4th down by an undrafted rookie running back pitching the football to a third-string tight end who had never attempted an NFL pass before, throwing to a backup quarterback who had never caught an NFL (or college) pass before, on the biggest stage for football."
Locator: 46734B.
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 19056 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 18676 | 14275 |
| 10-2023 | 18746 | 14359 |
| 9-2023 | 33607 | 9472 |
| 8-2023 | 23096 | 5415 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 24907 | 16281 |
| 11-2023 | 20825 | 13254 |
| 10-2023 | 24319 | 15279 |
| 9-2023 | 22008 | 12709 |
| 8-2023 | 7393 | 4546 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 10430 | 10418 |
| 11-2023 | 23105 | 20284 |
| 10-2023 | 27121 | 21276 |
| 9-2023 | 23381 | 21336 |
| 8-2023 | 7306 | 6158 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 14185 | 27684 |
| 11-2023 | 17757 | 25684 |
| 10-2023 | 21891 | 27875 |
| 9-2023 | 28073 | 30570 |
| 8-2023 | 15403 | 7462 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 15110 | 14311 |
| 11-2023 | 17115 | 14583 |
| 10-2023 | 21273 | 16772 |
| 9-2023 | 28472 | 22071 |
| 8-2023 | 16923 | 7731 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 12792 | 26649 |
| 11-2023 | 16483 | 25812 |
| 10-2023 | 19823 | 23990 |
| 9-2023 | 21891 | 22425 |
| 8-2023 | 13344 | 6981 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 13450 | 25814 |
| 11-2023 | 18005 | 26359 |
| 10-2023 | 22154 | 27147 |
| 9-2023 | 26173 | 27694 |
| 8-2023 | 16258 | 9484 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 9649 | 20649 |
| 11-2023 | 18710 | 32817 |
| 10-2023 | 21950 | 34251 |
| 9-2023 | 28085 | 33331 |
| 8-2023 | 18127 | 8858 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 28681 | 18528 |
| 11-2023 | 27507 | 16991 |
| 10-2023 | 28936 | 21930 |
| 9-2023 | 28494 | 23081 |
| 8-2023 | 9860 | 4942 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 23500 | 23113 |
| 11-2023 | 25123 | 21613 |
| 10-2023 | 27074 | 21220 |
| 9-2023 | 34925 | 26158 |
| 8-2023 | 18172 | 8616 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 12742 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 13565 | 23392 |
| 10-2023 | 23335 | 39024 |
| 9-2023 | 12227 | 18915 |
| 8-2023 | 28954 | 59163 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 13061 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 15511 | 26461 |
| 10-2023 | 13448 | 18551 |
| 9-2023 | 23480 | 31691 |
| 8-2023 | 37011 | 7300 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 18597 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 18707 | 27547 |
| 10-2023 | 21251 | 19196 |
| 9-2023 | 31464 | 56738 |
| 8-2023 | 45770 | 82894 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 16826 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 14398 | 11203 |
| 10-2023 | 13117 | 9467 |
| 9-2023 | 17175 | 14416 |
| 8-2023 | 18759 | 10921 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 15983 | 19437 |
| 11-2023 | 15476 | 14942 |
| 10-2023 | 13768 | 12170 |
| 9-2023 | 16957 | 15602 |
| 8-2023 | 13188 | 11622 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 21957 | 20110 |
| 11-2023 | 25634 | 23171 |
| 10-2023 | 31293 | 25409 |
| 9-2023 | 37194 | 32352 |
| 8-2023 | 53577 | 47538 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 18872 | 16072 |
| 11-2023 | 24046 | 20155 |
| 10-2023 | 37178 | 28641 |
| 9-2023 | 22619 | 17870 |
| 8-2023 | 32867 | 26278 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 22370 | 18738 |
| 11-2023 | 25431 | 20996 |
| 10-2023 | 28279 | 22026 |
| 9-2023 | 40214 | 29381 |
| 8-2023 | 40070 | 35559 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 25831 | 21682 |
| 11-2023 | 29412 | 24145 |
| 10-2023 | 36468 | 27439 |
| 9-2023 | 38759 | 33889 |
| 8-2023 | 51623 | 43746 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 11972 | 0 |
| 11-2023 | 13971 | 12716 |
| 10-2023 | 12010 | 9995 |
| 9-2023 | 17314 | 16536 |
| 8-2023 | 23603 | 16489 |
