Friday, February 20, 2015

West Coast Dockworkers Contract -- Tentative -- February 20, 2015

Tweeting now:
  • White House calls news of a tentative contract for West Coast dockworkers a 'huge relief' for US economy and businesses affected by labor dispute - @Reuters
  • An Australian nurse will reportedly undergo a highly precautionary 21-day observation period in the UK following possible exposure to Ebola - @7NewsSydney
At least it's hard to catch.

Large Man Camp Closing In Williams County -- February 20, 2015

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Capital Lodge, located on Highway 2 between Tioga and Ray, says its best years as an industrial camp for 1,100 workers are likely over. It wants to downsize and become a commercial hotel-style operation.
Williams County commissioners denied a zoning change last week. Now, the lodging’s CEO says it will sell and relocate about one-third of its manufactured units -- probably to McKenzie County -- hunker down and see what the future holds.
Capital Lodge is one of the larger man camps in the Bakken business.
The five-year-old venture represents a private investment in excess of $30 million, with 140 manufactured units, 1,100 licensed beds, waste water treatment and lagoon, and a supersized dining and recreation dome. About 300 workers are using the facility.
Much, more at the link. The story will likely be archived at the source.

Random Observations Made Over At Carpe Diem Regarding Williston, North Dakota -- February 20, 2015

I was watching re-runs of "Columbo" (DVD) when I caught this interesting tidbit over at Carpe Diem. This particular entry should be of interest to Willistonites.

There were two graphics concerning demographics of US young adults, aged 18 - 34. The data should be of interest to the general population but then this, seemingly just out of the blue.
The bottom chart above (at the linked article) displays an interesting comparison of the top 20 metro areas (wotj populations above 400,000) ranked by median annual earnings (in 2013 dollars) for full-time workers ages 18-34 in 1980 and 2009-2013. Some observations:
1. In 1980, three Michigan cities (Flint, Detroit and Grand Rapids) ranked among the top 20 US metro areas for the highest median incomes for young adults, and Flint and Detroit were ranked No. 1 and No. 2. In 1980, young people working full-time in Flint and Detroit, thanks to an 80% market share for the Big 3 and the above-market wages of the UAW, had higher median annual incomes than their counterparts in all other major US cities .....

2....

3.....

4. Not surprisingly, more than half (11) of the top 20 metro areas with the highest median incomes for Americans ages 18-34 in 1980 were in Midwest or Rust Belt states. By 2009-2013, only three of the top 20 metro areas by income for young Americans were in Midwest or Rust Belt states: Minneapolis-St. Paul, Chicago and Des Moines (and none of those cities have a strong manufacturing base), and almost all of the top 20 metros by income for young Americans were in East Coast or West Coast states.
5. In 1980, 1990 and 2000, Williston, North Dakota wasn’t even included in the Census Bureau list of US metro areas. But by 2009-2013 Williston ranked as the sixth highest-income city in the US (for cities of all sizes) for young adults with median income of $46,081, just slightly behind Washington, DC at $47,380, San Francisco ($47,426) and San Jose ($51,149).
The median income for the millennial generation working in Williston is higher than the median incomes in Boston ($44,548), New York City ($42,108)and Seattle ($41,167).
It’s another amazing sign of shale prosperity that young Americans today are earning incomes in Williston, North Dakota, in the epicenter of the Bakken Oil fields, that are comparable to the median incomes of their counterparts in Washington, DC and San Francisco.
Who wudda thought?

Week 7: February 15, 2015 -- February 21, 2015

Operations
Active rigs slump below 130; now at 127
Halcon's proved reserves up 60%; Bakken contributes 74%

Fracking
Halo effect, case study
It's going to be a busy June, 2015

Pipelines
The Keystone company (TransCanada) wants new pipeline to move Bakken oil TO Canada

Derailments
West Virginia derailment; no serious injuries; also here;

Fires, mishaps
Non-injury well fire in/near Watford City

Bakken Economy
North Dakota moves to #2 in export growth

Miscellaneous
North Dakota #1 in freedom among 57 US states

Slump in oil prices
Zeits' crude oil review

Bakken_101
Whiting's "U" Designation

North Dakota Reports 2nd Highest Annual Export Growth Among All 57 States -- February 20, 2015

Another first for North Dakota, Bakken.com is reporting:
North Dakota has broken its export record for the year of 2014, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Last year the state exported $5.3 billion worth of commodities, a 42 percent increase from 2013.
Last year overall U.S. exports increased by a mere 3 percent. With North Dakota’s 42 percent increase, the state had the second highest annual export growth among all 50 states in 2014. Not surprising is the value of mineral fuels and oil product exportation exceeded the value of other exported goods. The majority of it was shipped to Canada via pipelines.
Mineral fuels and oil products netted $2.7 billion, more than double the 2013 amount. Next on the list was front end loaders, which saw an 8 percent increase from 2013 at $296 million. Wheat exports also increased by $141 million, or 28 percent, while soybean exports grew by $109 million, a 123 percent increase from the previous year.

Fourteen (14) New Permits -- February 20, 2015; Active Rigs Hold Steady At 127

Five (5) permits canceled: four were Bakken Hunter permits, all in Divide County (Mountaineer, Flamingo, Teal, and Heron; one was a Denbury Onshore permit, a CHSU permit in Bowman County.

Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 26756, 239, Hess, GN-Flaten-158-98-324H-1, Rainbow, t2/15; cum --
  • 27440, 284, Hess, GN-Champ-159-98-3229H-1, Big Stone, t2/15; cum --
  • 27771, 586, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0708H, Beaver Lodge, t1/15; cum --
  • 28300, 1,818, XTO, Omlid 41X-13D, Siverston, t2/15; cum --
Wells that came off the confidential list today have been posted; daily update here and at the sidebar at the right.

Active rigs:


2/20/201502/20/201402/20/201302/20/201202/20/2011
Active Rigs127183184200171

This well came off the confidential list today; it was a wildcat. Based on its location, I thought the Madison would have been the target; in fact, the target was the middle Bakken, and fairly shallow, which makes sense based on its location --
  • 28571, drl, Roff Operating Company, Osterberg 2-16 H1, wildcat, far north, and east, about 6 miles northwest of Mohall, near Little Deep Creek oil field, a Madison formation area; if a good well, might extend Little Deep Creek east, , no production data; very, very interesting -- the geologist's report states that the target was the middle Bakken; that the wellbore entered the middle Bakken target at 6,350 feet (shallow); oil present; gas values ranged between 50 and 100; the dipping suggests that anticlinal oil trapping structures could exist and be exploited; awaiting fracture/completion; spud August 20; ceased drilling September 13; total drilling days, 26; short lateral (640 acres);
Fourteen (14) new permits--
  • Operators: XTO (7), Slawson (5), Statoil (2),
  • Fields: Heart Buttte (Dunn), Haystack Butte (Dunn), Big Bend (Mountrail),  East Fork (Williams), 
  • Comments:
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Remember how I said that no matter how bad today is, it will all be offset by Trader Joe's opening in Southlake, TX, today.

I should not have said that.

My hard drive crashed this morning. The computer is currently at the Apple Store (Southlake, TX) and will be ready later today. Fortunately everything was backed up. No loss of data.

I will not be caught up until later today, maybe not until tomorrow, due to family obligations, also.

I'm in a great mood. The hard drive crash turned out not to be a big deal; just time consuming, but I learned a bit and that's the silver lining.

Update: great news! The hard drive is intact. It was the cable to the hard drive. Cable replaced; nothing lost. However, I will not be caught up until late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Enerplus Shines; Deere Slumps -- February 27, 2015

Reporting today:

Deere (DE), forecast 83 cents: net income was $386.8 million, or $1.12 per share, for the quarter that ended Jan. 31., the equipment-maker's first fiscal quarter of 2015.
That was a drop of 43% from the year-earlier net income of $681.1 million, or $1.81 per share.
Worldwide revenues for the first quarter decreased 17%, to $6.383 billion, compared with $7.654 billion last year.
Deere's ag business slumped, but other operations were strong.
Analysts had expected the profit tumble, so the stock didn't plunge in pre-market trades. It fell as low as $90.16, but recovered a bit and was trading around $91, off less than 1% from the previous close of $91.71.
Interestingly enough, I think I read the other day Warren Buffett took a position in Deere a few months ago. 

Enerplus Corp (ERF.TO), forecast 21 cents, before market open;
4th Quarter 2014: Despite the fall in commodity prices, funds flow was essentially unchanged quarter over quarter at $213 million due to higher production volumes and the strength of our hedging program.
Production continued to grow during the fourth quarter averaging approximately 105,600 BOE per day, up modestly from the previous quarter despite the sale of non-core production completed on September 30, 2014. Compared to the same period in 2013, fourth quarter production was up 12%.
We continued to see strong performance from our Bakken/Three Forks properties in North Dakota with average production increasing by 2,900 BOE per day from the previous quarter.
Crude oil and natural gas liquids accounted for 44% of fourth quarter volumes.
Natural gas production from the Marcellus increased 5% from the previous quarter, despite an average of 6,000 – 7,000 BOE per day of production voluntarily curtailed to preserve value in this low natural gas price environment.
Overall, corporate natural gas production declined slightly quarter over quarter primarily as a result of non-core Canadian natural gas asset sales.
Cash operating costs increased marginally from the third quarter to $10.75 per BOE due to continued production curtailments on our lower operating cost Marcellus properties. General and administrative expenses also increased quarter over quarter to $2.62 per BOE as a result of severance costs incurred in the quarter. We invested $181 million in capital projects during the quarter, down from $208 million in the previous quarter, primarily as a result of a slowdown in activity in the Marcellus. Over three quarters of the spending was directed to oil projects with a total of 25 net wells drilled and 18 net wells brought on-stream. Our adjusted payout ratio decreased to 113% compared to 122% in the previous quarter, driven by lower capital spending in the fourth quarter.

Did Oil And Imported LNG Save New England This Winter? -- February 20, 2015

Updates

Later, 3:30 p.m. CT: Reuters reports that heating oil spikes as severe cold crimps U.S. refining --
The heating oil rally came after Phillips 66 began experiencing extended delays in restarting a crude unit at its 238,000-barrel-per-day Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, according to person familiar with the facility's operations.
In Trainer, Pennsylvania, Delta Refinery said the facility's cooling system, which normally draws water from the Delaware River, is partly frozen, and it had shut a fluid catalytic cracking unit.
Intelligence group Genscape reported that Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc shut down a vacuum distillation unit at the Girard Point section of the 335,000 bpd refinery in Philadelphia.

Original Post 
Yesterday it was noted that the electric grid in the northeast is likely to "hold" this winter -- despite a brutal winter. In addition, the natural gas fill rate was "better" than the 5-year average. This was not predicted; it did not make sense to me; I simply reported it -- praised the oil and gas industry for their resourcefulness -- but never understood it. Now RBN Energy provides an answer. Very, very interesting. 

RBN Energy: did oil and imported LNG save New England this winter? This is an incredibly interesting story. I will post it again as a stand-alone. In addition, a reminder: these articles are archived at the source.
The much-discussed shortfall in natural gas pipeline capacity into New England has been largely mitigated this winter because generators—encouraged by low oil prices and incentives to lock in backup supplies of oil and LNG—are ready, willing and able to switch their dual-fuel power plants away from pipeline natural gas and onto oil and LNG-sourced gas if market conditions warrant.
But now that prices for those fuels are more attractive, could switching to oil and imported LNG during winter’s coldest days and nights actually be a longer term solution to New England’s pipeline capacity problem instead of just a stopgap until new pipelines are built?
Today, we begin a look at the changing economics of burning oil and LNG-sourced gas to help power New England when the region turns arctic, and what they may mean for proposed pipeline expansion projects.
This winter has provided some déjà vu to the power generation and fuel supply sectors in New England. As the season approached, oil (which was once, with coal, a fuel of choice for generators in the region) was being delivered to and stockpiled at the significant number of power plants in the region that can run on either natural gas or oil. More recently, imports of liquefied natural gas into the region’s LNG-receiving terminals spiked, with the expectation that LNG—like oil—will supplement and even displace gas piped into New England from the south and west when doing so makes economic sense. New England’s electricity market is highly competitive, and up-to-the-moment information about the degree to which oil (and LNG-sourced gas) is displacing piped-in gas for power generation is scarce.
But, as we’ll get to in a moment, there are signs that this winter oil and imported LNG are playing out-sized roles.

Friday -- February 20, 2015

Active rigs:


2/20/201502/20/201402/20/201302/20/201202/20/2011
Active Rigs127183184200171


RBN Energy: did oil and imported LNG save New England this winter? This is an incredibly interesting story. I will post it again as a stand-alone. In addition, a reminder: these articles are archived at the source.
The much-discussed shortfall in natural gas pipeline capacity into New England has been largely mitigated this winter because generators—encouraged by low oil prices and incentives to lock in backup supplies of oil and LNG—are ready, willing and able to switch their dual-fuel power plants away from pipeline natural gas and onto oil and LNG-sourced gas if market conditions warrant.
But now that prices for those fuels are more attractive, could switching to oil and imported LNG during winter’s coldest days and nights actually be a longer term solution to New England’s pipeline capacity problem instead of just a stopgap until new pipelines are built? Today, we begin a look at the changing economics of burning oil and LNG-sourced gas to help power New England when the region turns arctic, and what they may mean for proposed pipeline expansion projects.
This winter has provided some déjà vu to the power generation and fuel supply sectors in New England. As the season approached, oil (which was once, with coal, a fuel of choice for generators in the region) was being delivered to and stockpiled at the significant number of power plants in the region that can run on either natural gas or oil. More recently, imports of liquefied natural gas into the region’s LNG-receiving terminals spiked, with the expectation that LNG—like oil—will supplement and even displace gas piped into New England from the south and west when doing so makes economic sense. New England’s electricity market is highly competitive, and up-to-the-moment information about the degree to which oil (and LNG-sourced gas) is displacing piped-in gas for power generation is scarce. But, as we’ll get to in a moment, there are signs that this winter oil and imported LNG are playing out-sized roles.