The Early Data Is In -- Unless I'm Misreading This -- EVs Had A Great February -- Tesla Did Better Than Expected -- March 1, 2018

Updates

March 5, 2018: cars/week continue to tick down ...

March 3, 2018: terrifying ... Elon Musk ...

March 3, 2018: compare with graphic at bottom of this post --

March 2, 2018:

Original Post 

Sales/deliveries for a few EV makes/models have been reported. It will probably be mid-week next week before we see the full list. But unless I'm missing something, the numbers look pretty good for the EVs:

So, we'll have to wait to see what the pundits say about Tesla's sales. Tesla Model 3 beat out Chevy Bolt and Chevy Volt combined: 2,485 vs 2,407. That surprises me.

Year-over-year:

Last year, February, by far was the worst month for Chevy Bolt, selling only 952 vehicles. Chevy Bolt's best month was December, 2017, selling 3,227 vehicles. Bolt sales my be more sensitive to the month; I don't know. I doubt Tesla deliveries are affected by the month; the backorder number is huge; it's simply a matter of what Tesla can produce.

Having said that, February was one of the better months in 2017 for the Chevy Volt.

We will have to wait a few more months, a few more quarters to get a better picture. For me, right now, it seems a bit muddled and not quite as bad as some of us had forecast -- at least in terms of units sold/delivered.

From a post just a couple of days ago:

Chart of the day:

So, let's see. From the table above, Tesla delivered 4,485 vehicles (S, 3, and X) in February. That works out to about 1,000 cars / week -- exactly what @TeslaCharts forecast.

Forecast For 3Q15 GDP Drops Again -- October 19, 2015; Job Watch; Maybe Green Energy Jobs Will Move The Needle

Active rigs:

	10/19/2015	10/19/2014	10/19/2013	10/19/2012	10/19/2011
Active Rigs	66	190	184	186	198

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GDPNow:

The GDPNow model nowcast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 0.9 percent on October 14, down from 1.0 percent on October 9. The model's nowcast for real consumer spending growth in the third quarter fell from 3.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was partly offset by an 0.1 percentage point increase in the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth following this morning's update on retail inventories from the Census Bureau.

It will be interesting to see if new housing data changes the forecast.

U.S. homebuilders have not felt this good about their business in a decade. Sentiment jumped 3 points in October to a level of 64 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The index stood at 54 last October.

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Maybe Green Energy Jobs Will Move The Needle

From "Lackluster" To "Dismal" In One Administration

Is the Labor Department preparing us for some "bad" news? CNBC is reporting:

Evidence is mounting that the jobs recovery's best days are in the rear view mirror.

Recent Labor Department indicators show that the employment market is tightening, with both fewer job openings and workers willing to leave their current jobs for better environs. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, released last week, adds to signs that the market is maturing, and signals to Wall Street that hopes for future blockbuster nonfarm payrolls reports should be tempered.

"Don't expect the employment situation report to print nonfarm payrolls above 200,000 going forward," market strategists at New York-based brokerage Convergex said in a report. "The last two readings fell below that threshold and, unless more highly educated individuals enter the workforce, it's likely to stay there."

Indeed, the most recent payrolls reports have been lackluster, to say the least.

The September number showed just 142,000 new positions created, far less than the more than 200,000 economists had expected. August was even worse, with just 136,000 jobs, and though July's came in at a more respectable 223,000, that number was revised down from 245,000.

Paul Krugman has a solution. More deficit spending.

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Green Energy EVs

Where do we stand on "EVs for the masses?" Yahoo is reporting on the GM Bolt:

• "the Bolt: first EV with the range of a Tesla at a Chevrolet price" -- GM
•  starting price: $37,000 (federal tax credit can bring it down to under $30,000)
• charging times should improve -- a fast-charge might come down to only 45 minutes
• current battery costs: $145/kwh -- close to Tesla's
• by 2020, could fall to $100/kwh
• Tesla's Model 3 will target similar audience as that of the Bolt: $40,000 or less, 200-mile range
• Tesla Model 3 due in 2017, though Tesla usually runs behind schedule
• by the time the Model 3 debuts, the Chevy Bolt should already be on the road

Comments at the link:

• 2015 Ford Fiesta: 50 mpg/commute, $18K vs $30K for a Bolt
• Tesla is building a battery factory for $6 billion; where is GM getting their batteries? possibly here;
• Chevy Spark: $14K; 40 mpg; a lot of free electricity to make the Bolt work
• the US: we ban the use of 40-watt lightbulb but give a huge tax credit for someone buying an EV that siphons 85,000 watt-hours out of one's home
• Chevy Bolt: no charging infrastructure
• 45-minute fast re-charge time on a 250-mile trip?
• wasn't the Tesla Model 3 supposed to come in under $35,000; now it's $40,000
• just in time for $2 gasoline