The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Updating Four Incredible Enerplus Spotted Horn Wells -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46677ENERPLUS.

From an earlier post:

I've always assumed Spotted Horn was named after Chief Spotted Horn of the Assiniboine mentioned in the journal of Rudolph Friedrich Kurz, 1851 - 1852. Families' names and genealogy of native Americans have always been a challenge for me, and if I do not read their history on a regular basis, I forget the history.

Be that as it may, as I was saying Enerplus has interesting names for four new wells in Spotted Horn oil field:

• 23541,1,545, Enerplus Resources, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 704K 12/20; off line 5/20; returned to production 9/20; cum 726K 7/21; cum 748K 4/22; cum 766K 12/22; cum 788K 8/23;
  
• 23542, 1,007, Enerplus Resources, Grace 150-94-06B-07H, Spotted Horn, t2/13; cum 371K 12/20; of the four, this is the only standard two-section lateral; the other three are the much-talked about, seldom-seen three-section laterals; was off line 4/20; but seems to be back on line 5/20; cum 382K 7/21; cum 396K 4/22; cum 410K 12/22; cum 426K 11/23;
  
• 26608, 1,601, Enerplus Resources, Courage 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 655K 12/20; cum 669K 7/21; cum 682K 4/22; cum 697K 12/22; cum 716K 11/23;
  
• 26609, 1,703, Enerplus Resources, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t10/14; cum 564K 12/20; was off line 4/20 but seems to be back on line 5/20; cum 575K 7/21; cum 605K 4/22; cum 635K 12/22; cum 661K 9/23;
  

By the way, there was a "Mrs Spotted Horn Bull," a Hunkpapa Sioux who provided a fascinating oral history of that fateful day in June, 1876. 

These four incredible wells are all off line. Now why would they all be off line? Let's look at the map.

Look at all the news where there used to be only four. Wow, wow, wow.

• 40438, drl, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn.

It's too late. I'll finish these up later.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Look At This Mega-Pad -- Bigger Than Some Villages In North Dakota -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46676MRO.

I was in the process of updating this MRO pad, at this link. 

The map:

And that's when I noted two rigs in the area:

The pad to the north:

The pad to the south:

Locations with rigs on site:

• 37836, drl, MRO, Duuane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
• 40132, drl, MRO, Rogers USA 42-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay,

Not too far to the east, in Four Bears, this pad:

40169, drl, Lawson USA 11-20TFH, Four Bears,

An MRO Pad In Killdeer Soon To Be Fracked -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46675B.

This well is tracked here. It looks like this well is about to be fracked.

• 40069, drl, MRO, Graves 11-1H, Killdeer, no production data.

Lego -- Dune -- These Were Really, Really Cool In The Movie

Locator: 46674DUNE.

Movies:

• lots of thoughts on Dune: Part 2; saw it last night; can't decide what to say about it
• Washington Post; over at RogerEbert.com; 
• quick notes:   
• huge for Dune fans; not my kind of movie
  
• while watching, flashed across my mind: Star Wars, Apocalypse Now -- both so much better than Dune. 
• while watching, flashed across my mind: Bloom's The Western Canon, the Bible, Shakespeare plays;
• first Star War movies much better; 
• minimal character development in Dune; can't warm-up / connect with Dune characters
• story line: dorky; not original at all
• too many scenes too dark (as in lighting, not story line)
• dialogue: not developed
• Christopher Walken: big disappointment; doesn't seem to fit; review here;
  
• $11.37 with tax; about the price of monthly subscription to Amazon Prime 

LEGO licensing rights with several movie franchises. Now we can add Dune.

And, no, I don't / won't be collecting sets from this franchise. 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals In The News Today -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46673CF.

Cystic fibrosis:

Cystic fibrosis is a genetic condition that affects a protein in the body. 

People who have cystic fibrosis have a faulty protein that affects the body’s cells, its tissues, and the glands that make mucus and sweat. The protein: cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR).

Normal mucus is slippery and protects the airways, digestive tract, and other organs and tissues. Cystic fibrosis causes mucus to become thick and sticky. As mucus builds up, it can cause blockages, damage, or infections in affected organs. 

Cystic fibrosis used to cause death in childhood. Survival has improved because of medical discoveries and advances in newborn screening, medicines, nutrition, and lung transplants. Nearly 40,000 children and adults in the United States and more than 100,000 worldwide are now living with cystic fibrosis. Children born between 2018 and 2022 who have cystic fibrosis are expected to live an average of 56 years. 

On average, half of babies born in 2021 with cystic fibrosis are expected to reach the age of 65 or older.

Medical therapy: modulators. Now being prescribed with "triple" combos:

A class of drugs called CFTR modulators target specific defects in the CFTR protein so that the protein can work properly. CFTR modulators do not fully restore chloride flow, but they do improve the flow enough to help lessen CF symptoms. There are currently 3 types of CFTR modulators:

• potentiators (ivacaftor) 
• correctors (lumacaftor, tezacaftor, and elexacaftor) 
• amplifiers

The three different types of CFTR modulators work on distinct parts of the CFTR protein to help it work better. 

The CFTR protein is shaped like a tunnel with gates that open and close, offering access out of the cell. 

Potentiators 

Potentiators help chloride move through the CFTR protein, providing a channel to the cell surface. Potentiators hold the gate open. Potentiators work on gating, conduction, residual function, and splice mutations. Ivacaftor (brand name Kalydeco) has been approved for use in the U.S.

Correctors

Correctors help the CFTR protein form the right shape so that it is able to move to the cell surface and stay there longer. Two correctors, lumacaftor (brand name Orkambi) and tezacaftor (Symdeko), have been approved for use in the U.S. These correctors are used in combination with the potentiator ivacaftor to increase their effectiveness. 

Both lumacaftor and tezacaftor are first-generation modulators. 

This means they were the first modulators used to treat CF.

Elexacaftor is a “next-generation” modulator. This means it may be more effective than previous modulators.  

Elexacafor is combined with tezacaftor and the potentiator ivacaftor to form the brand name Trikafta. This triple combination drug allows more people with CF a variety of treatment options.

So, the "triple combo" has a potentiator and two correctors, but no amplifier.

Amplifiers

One amplifier, PTI-428, is currently being tested so this drug is not yet available. Amplifiers increase the amount of CFTR protein that a cell makes, which should help those people with CF who do not produce enough CFTR protein. The theory is that if the cells make more CFTR protein, the potentiators and correctors could allow more chloride to flow through the cell membrane. Research continues on many other next-generation CFTR modulators.

So, as I understand it, Trikafta is the "gold standard," against which new modalities are compared.

Now, a new "triple combo" in phase III trials. Link here.

Phase III trials have found CFTR modulator vanzacaftor/tezacaftor/deutivacaftor (vanza triple) to be non-inferior to TRIKAFTA® (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor) in improving cystic fibrosis lung function.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Trikafta

Vertex Pharmaceuticals: vanza triple

Vanza Triple has now been approved for Phase III trials.

 Ticker:

Doofus Hopes To Help Qatar Catch Up With US LNG Exports -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46672LNG.

DFW: without question --- this is a perfect day. 85°P; in the shade; no wind; no pollen. Occasional streaks of wispy cirrus clouds (?).  On the balcony, watching the dogs being walked to the park.

LNG:

**************
Denver

This is so cool. This is absolutely something Jerry Jones would not do with Dak Prescott.  For Jerry, it's all about the money; for others, it's all about the rings.

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Super Bugs

Link here. Next year we're going to start reading stories about highly-resistant bugs causing STDs.

This is not rocket science.

Is it bothersome that syphilis and chlamydia infections were "reduced" using this ploy but no reduction in gonorrhea?

I remember this when it was first reported, decades ago, penicillin-resistant gonorrhea. It was first reported in GIs serving in the Philippines or Okinawa -- I forget which. Probably the Philippines. Update here.

DFW Light Rail Update -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46671RAIL.

TEXRail: From the local weekly "newspaper."

Colleyville, old money, very, very conservative, anti-progress -- refused to allow TEXRail to stop in their city. 

 Amtrak: link here. To add a million seats.

Project For The Day -- Jackie Kennedy -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46670BOOKS.

My "fun book" for the week. There were multiple reasons for choosing this book. Perhaps the number one reason: as a travelogue and geography lesson for that area between McLean, VA, up to Manhattan, and then up the Hudson River Valley to Vassar, an area that has always intrigued me and where I have spent some of the best days of my young life, also coming of age.

A lot of this happened in the early 50's. I was born in 1951. 

Poughkeepsie, NY:

On the second page, a description of her trip from Vassar to her stepfather's McLean, VA, estate, via train.

• a 25-minute bus ride from Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY,
• train to NYC; transfer from Grand Central Station to Pennsylvania station
• train to Washington, DC, and then a short bus ride to McLean or thereabouts, I suppose

The estate:

The book: Camera Girl: The Coming of Age of Jackie Bouvier Kennedy, Carl Sferrazza Anthony, c. 2023.

The first two pages:

Then, while dating, not yet married:

Jackie's Vietnam Report that she completed for the senator:

Active Rigs Jump To 42 — March 4, 2024

Locator: 46669B.

Updates

March 4, 2024: this is so funny. Last night / yesterday I wrote the "original post" but left it in draft form. I was a bit unsure whether I should post it. Well, AAPL dropped significantly today. It made decision-making so much easier. Amazing.  

March 4, 2024: wow, I'm in a good mood. Watching Dune: Part 2 last night -- by myself -- gave me a bit of time to reflect. Two overriding thoughts.

First, the heroes in Dune: Part 2 all make-believe and then I reflected on watching Caitlin Clark in real time break breaking Pete Maravich's NCAA scoring record set 56 years ago. Caitlin Clark: not make believe. Real. And I saw it in real time, and I saw history being made. Dune: Part 2 -- fun, but not real.

The second overriding thought is much more difficult to articulate. It has to do with "originality." Harold Bloom argues it is difficult to find "original literature." It's rare to find anything that can't be traced back to the Bible, the Iliad / Odyssey, Beowulf, or the Shakespeare plays. 

I am so fortunate that I read so much between 2000 and 2007. I pretty much went off the grid those seven years and was definitely off the grid from 2004 to 2007 and all I did was sit by the pool in our apartment complex in Alamo Heights in San Antonio, TX, and read. And I read everything. Dune? Story line was simply stolen from the Bible and the Mideast. Nothing original at all, and incredibly boring from that aspect.

March 4, 2024: one of my family members said she was getting pressure from her financial advisor to sell some of her Apple and asked me for my thoughts. I won't say what I told her but it was a great opportunity to reflect on the whole "investing" thing.  

March 4, 2024: never quit reading. I never thought I would pick up a biography of Jackie Kennedy but here I am, having checked out a book from the local library on Ms Kennedy and absolutely loving it. Not so much about her but so much about the geography of northeastern seaboard of which I know little; and, the "picture" of what the US looked like in 1951.

March 4, 2024: hey, speaking of which. Some people have trouble with the SCOTUS ruling regarding Trump. 

They begrudgingly agree that the SCOTUS made the right decision with regard to putting Trump back on the Colorado ballot but disagreed with SCOTUS going much farther than was needed. I was disappointed with ACB (a staunch conservative) joining the three liberal justices in writing a dissenting opinion suggesting the court went farther than it needed. That tells me all I need to know. Folks don't understand how the legal system is supposed to work. But machts nicht, the court made the right decision, and the non-concurring justices can whine all they want. Link here.

Original Post

I’ve been looking forward to March for more than three months now. The 3rd, 6th, 9th, and 12th months of the year are the last months of their respective quarters and also the best months by far for receiving dividends.

I have my bucket list of equities I had planned to purchase with the current month’s dividends but now that they are starting to show up in my brokerage account I’m paralyzed with anxiety. I’ve never paid attention to all this in the past, and now that I am, it’s downright scary. It was so much easier when I only had $100 to invest.

**********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.79.

Active Rigs: 42.

Five new permits, #40560 - #40564, inclusive:

• Operators: Slawson (3), Empire North Dakota, and MRO
• Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Starbuck (Bottineau); and, Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for a Prowler well, a Payara well, and a Snoop Alley well, NWNW 21-152-91; 
• to be sited 1001 FNL and at 360-, 410-, and 510-FWL;
• Empire has a permit for a Sandpiper well, SESE 29-161-78l
• to be sited 1050 FSL and 1100 FEL;
• MRO has a permit for a Whitaker well, SWSE 11-145-94, 
• to be sited 593 FSL and 1710 FEL;

Well of interest:

• 17875, 608, MRO, Lily 24-11H, Bailey, t7/09; cum 231K 12/23;

Weekly Personal Note -- March 3, 2024

Locator: 46662ARCHIVES.

*******************************
Inflation Watch

Groceries: food prices coming down very, very quickly in our neighborhood. Mentioned that yesterday. Now, today, to pick up some things I forgot yesterday, all at Target, the high-cost choice in our area.

• white bread: $1.39
• Spam: on sale at $3.49; regular price, $3.79
• eggs still expensive at $2.79 / dozen; can find them elsewhere for $1.99 / dozen; but don't need any today
• Unfortunately I don't need any of these and didn't buy but it was hard to pass up:

• Campbell's soup? I'm used to paying $1.79 for some choices; now down to a dollar:

• CNBC says $7 for dry cereal in NYC. How about $4.50?

• Oreos. Last time I bought Oreas, years ago, $2.50. Refused to buy them when they went over $2.50 but I continued to follow. Aghast when they went over $5.00 -- only Girl Scout cookies were / are more expensive. But, now, down to $4.00. From $5.19 to $4.00 that's almost a 25% drop in price.

***************************
Family Notes
For The Archives

See this post for background. 

This is an indulgence I would prefer not to do. I don't "do" Facebook so this is my way of keeping friends and family informed of personal events.

Illness: I can't provide the name of the individual right now -- maybe a year from now -- but we came very, very close to losing an extended family member this past week. 

Some might think I'm being a bit dramatic, but I don't think so. Hospitalized with a diagnosis of rule out kidney abscess, diagnosed with severe bilateral pyelonephritis, viral pneumonitis, influenza B, and EV virus (infectious mono). Covid-19 negative. Two week illness; three-day hospitalization; back home this weekend. 

Weather: 90°P weather earlier this week, then winter came roaring back for two days; now back to 80°P this weekend.

More weather: there is a push to change the term "Fahrenheit" to something easier to spell and something more appropriate for US weather. 

Some would like to see "Patriot" degrees. So, today, not 80°F but rather 80°P or 80 degrees Patriot. LOL. The conversion rate "F" to "P" much easier than from "F" to "C."

Birthdays:

• May is in Portland, OR, celebrating birthdays for Judah and Levi. Four years old.
• Carl and Ruth's great-grandchildren birthdays this month: Judah, Levi, Kaitlyn, Gemma, and Avery.

Economic activity: in the DFW area seems to be incredible. 

May and I spent the four-day weekend, about two weeks ago in San Antonio.

Driving through Ft Worth was amazing, and the growth around Rose Glen was amazing.

Absolutely zero talk here in Texas about the "southern surge" including almost no mention of the immigration issue on all the political advertising now going on. If there is any mention of the immigration issue in political ads, it's less than what it was four years ago, even with the dueling visits by a president in his ninth decade of life and an opponent in his eighth decade of life. Is that right? 

Apple's March Hardware Announcements -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46664AAPL.

It was rumored that the announcements would come in March, but I don't think anyone thought the announcements would come this early in the month. Only March 4th. Wow.

Apple M3: announcements this morning. 

Somewhat of a surprise how early in March announcements made.M3 MacBook Air available for pre-order. A bit confusing but prices possibly slightly lower than previous models. With improvements (not best word) definitely much cheaper. Will fly off the shelves; will be #1 computer for college students this fall.

The Verge: link here. 

Others:

• 13-inch M1 discontinued, but still available at $749.
• supports more external displays than the M3 MacBook Pro; wow!
• new models announced.

Screenshots from Apple.com:

Monday, Monday -- March 4, 2024

Locator: 46670B.

Crawfish App: up and running; free. Crawfish now available in our area, running $9 to $12 / pound. 

Apple iPhone: simply amazing; every day it seems I find another incredible feature that makes my life so much easier.

Apple M3: announcements this morning. 

Somewhat of a surprise how early in March announcements made.M3 MacBook Air available for pre-order. A bit confusing but prices possibly slightly lower than previous models. With improvements (not best word) definitely much cheaper. Will fly off the shelves; will be #1 computer for college students this fall.

Breakeven: Saudi, Qatar:

Sports:

• basketball
• that Iowa - Ohio game was huge, yesterday; I'm hoping I can find it again, re-airing;
• average ticket price for yesterday's game: $546
  
• watching highlights now 
• Caitlin looking to sign with Indiana Fever; their season tickets already rising
  
• women's March Madness begins March 20, 2024
• Vanderbilt, SEC, on the bubble, as they say
  
• men's: begins March 19, 2024
  

• rain-delayed PGA tournament concluded this morning
• leader started on 8th hole
• incredible: aired on Golf Channel to which I don’t subscribe and aired on Hulu (via Amazon Fire Stick on Philips big screen bought years ago at Walmart). 
• Austin Eckroat, champion, by three strokes, first time winner at PGA tournament; automatic invite to Master’s later this year. Set all kind of records despite bogey on 14th; 50th start. Hadn’t won an event since 2019.
• elsewhere: $250,000 penalty for playing too slowly; article also explains why we didn’t see some big name players at this weekend’s PGA tournament.

Movies:

• lots of thoughts on Dune: Part 2; saw it last night; can't decide what to say about it
• Washington Post; over at RogerEbert.com; 
• quick notes:   
• huge for Dune fans; not my kind of movie
  
• while watching, flashed across my mind: Star Wars, Apocalypse Now -- both so much better than Dune. 
• while watching, flashed across my mind: Bloom's The Western Canon, the Bible, Shakespeare plays;
• first Star War movies much better; 
• minimal character development in Dune; can't warm-up / connect with Dune characters
• story line: dorky; not original at all
• too many scenes too dark (as in lighting, not story line)
• dialogue: not developed
• Christopher Walken: big disappointment; doesn't seem to fit; review here;
  
• $11.37 with tax; about the price of monthly subscription to Amazon Prime
  

Literature:

• Stuff Jeff Reads; looks like his last post was in 2022; Tristram Shandy; The Western Canon;
• Harold Bloom obit -- October 13, 2019; updated November 1, 2019; NYT; 

Personal investing: lots of dividend cash this month, but for now, holding; honestly can't decide

• after two years of re-balancing the portfolio, not sure what to do next
• will wait to see what Jim Cramer says this a.m.; panelists at "Half-Time Report" 

Dow 30 components, today, pre-market: link here.

Two tickers, I guess we'll start with the "A"s today: 

Ford monthly sales: F up 4% today.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: it's Monday, WTI is down; trading at $79.43.

Tuesday, March 5, 2024: 91 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
None.

Monday, March 4, 2024: 91 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
36282, conf, Enerplus, Warthog 149-93-31D-30H-TF,

Sunday, March 3, 2024: 90 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year
40006, conf, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30H,
36280, conf, Enerplus, Meerkat 149-93-31D-30H,

Saturday, March 2, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: with brutally. bearish fundamentals, how low could natural gas prices go?

It’s been a devastating few weeks for the natural gas market. Sure, Shale Era abundance was supposed to keep gas prices from skyrocketing — and it generally has. But seriously? Henry Hub gas sinking below $2/MMBtu — and staying there, in the depths of the winter heating season? Prices have stabilized a little in recent days as a few E&Ps announced cutbacks in capex and gas-focused drilling, but gas-storage levels are abnormally high, coal-plant retirements have trimmed opportunities for coal-to-gas switching, and any significant gains in LNG exports aren’t going to happen until this time next year. With all that, you’ve gotta ask — as we do in today’s RBN blog — how low could natural gas prices go?