The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/07/23

I do not have access to my e-mail account that I use for the account associated with the blog.
I will not be receiving any e-mail for an undetermined period of time. I'm not sure yet if I can moderate comments for the blog without e-mail access.
But if you are e-mailing me or if you send a comment for the blog, I won't be seeing it. I'm not purposely ignoring you. The problem is being worked. We will know more tomorrow.
The blog, fortunately, is not affected.

The Yahoo! folks have been wonderful, incredible. They have a fix to get my e-mail account re-established, but I have not re-established the account. My biggest concern was whether the account had been hacked. The Yahoo! folks did not specifically address that issue, and I'm not sure they would be allowed to, but based on our lengthy conversations, it is clear my e-mail account was not compromised. Knowing my accounts have not been hacked, I’m greatly relieved but it raises the question whether associating an e-mail address with a blog is a smart practice.

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Back to the Bakken

Locator: 45977B.

WTI: $76.89. The API, today, reported a whopping increase in the amount of crude oil in commercial storage. We'll see what the EIA numbers show tomorrow. Most disappointing -- no analysis / comments why inventories surged. I'll talk about investing opportunities later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Active rigs: 32.

Six new permits, #40323 - #40328, inclusive:

Operators: Petro-Hunt (4); MRO; Grayson Mill;
Fields: Little Knife (Billings); Reunion Bay (Mountrail); Siverston (McKenzie)
Comments:

Petro-Hunt has permits for four State 144-98-16 wells, SESW 9-144-98,

to be sited 410 FSL and between 1875 FWL and 2015 FWL

MRO has one permit for a Westerdahl well, SESE 11-151-93;

to be sited 315 FSL and 1045 FEL;

Grayson Mill has one permit for another Hovland well, NWNE 26-150-99;

to be sited 352 FNL and 2113 FEL;

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:

37472, 1365, SOGC (Sinclair), Saetz Federal 3-36H,

Six permits renewed:

CLR, four Durham wells, one Goodson peermit; one Dalin permit, Divide and McKenzie counties

Off The Net For Awhile -- Sophia And I Are Off To The Park -- November 7, 2023

Locator: 45976INV.

Parting shot:

Sophia's plan for the day:

Four Big Stories On CNBC This Morning -- November 7, 2023

Locator: 45975INV.

WTI: plummets: drops $2.50 / bbls; now trading around $78. What happened to Mideast war, Iran-saber-rattling, $150-oil? Is this a Goldilocks economy for average American? Bidenomics?

Four big stories being followed on CNBC this morning:

chip stocks: surging
EV prices being slashed
used car prices dropping
household debt not an issue; has come way down since Covid-19 days;

Market after this news:

Dow: up 60 points
NASDAQ: up 130 points
S&P 500: up 30 points

Used car pricing: so you had to wait a year ... well, la de da ...

sedans down 16% y/y here in Texas
crossovers: down 10% year/year in Texas
EVs: some of the biggest price declines here in Texas

Used car pricing: "a more normalized market" -- CNBC -- national data out today

y/y: down 4%
m/m: down 3%

Used car pricing, Austin, TX, link here:

Think Or Swim -- Now Part Of Schwab -- November 7, 2023

Locator: 45974INV.

Schwab is doing some incredible things.

The TD Ameritrade acquisition is behind them. It was rocky, but it's over. It only gets better from here.

It turns out, according to my Schwab broker, the TD Ameritrade trading platform was better than Schwab's. I did not know that. I don't trade, only invest, so the "trading platform" is something I never looked at.

Think Or Swim is now part of Schwab.

Empirical Wealth Management is now partnered exclusively (?) with Schwab.

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Higher For Longer

First rate cut: market is looking at June, 2024, as the first rate cut.

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AAPL

From August 4, 2018.

I still get a kick out of folks discussing 4% vs 4.5% returns no bonds, Treasuries, etc.

Abbreviated disclaimer (full disclaimer at the "welcome"):

This is not an investment site.

Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done for my benefit. I don't expect others to read anything I post nor do I expect others to agree on anything I post. I started the blog to help me remember things since I have such a poor memory.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

No E-Mail Access -- November 7, 2023

Locator: 45973ARCH.

Three things:

I'm considering a new e-mail account;
it is interesting, except for "social media," it appears I really don't need e-mail;
two-step verification for all my accounts use methods other than e-mail.

I do not have access to my e-mail account that I use for the account associated with the blog.

I will not be receiving any e-mail for an undetermined period of time. I'm not sure yet if I can moderate comments for the blog without e-mail access.

But if you are e-mailing me or if you send a comment for the blog, I won't be seeing it. I'm not purposely ignoring you. The problem is being worked. We will know more tomorrow.

The blog, fortunately, is not affected.

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Chattajack 2023

Chattanooga, TN, downtown, riverfront.

One Well Comes Off Confidential List Today -- Used Car Inflation -- Transitory? November 7, 2023

Locator: 45972GASOLINE.

Gasoline prices continue to fall:

Used car pricing: so you had to wait a year ... well, la de da ...

sedans down 16% y/y here in Texas
crossovers: down 10% year/year in Texas
EVs: some of the biggest price declines here in Texas

Used car pricing: "a more normalized market" -- CNBC -- national data out today

y/y: down 4%
m/m: down 3%

Used car pricing, Austin, TX, link here:

Rentals in Texas: deflation being reported, particularly in Austin.

Personal investing:

bought: AAPL
bought: MSFT [I bought MSFT at the open; at 12:17 p.m. it was noted that MSFT just hit an all-time high.]
bought: NVDA
will sell today: --

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.36.

Wednesday, November 8, 2023: 104 for the month; 104 for the quarter, 674 for the year
38097, conf, Enerplus, Narwhal 148-94-05D-06H,
38096, conf, Enerplus, Brydes 148-93-05D-06H, Bryde's whale;

Tuesday, November 7, 2023: 102 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 672 for the year
39600, conf, CLR, Brooks 8-9H1,

RBN Energy: why western Canada's heavy oil discount has widened again. Archived.

The price discount for Western Canada’s benchmark heavy crude oil has seen yet another widening in the past few months. Increased pipeline access to the U.S. was believed to be the key to solving this problem in the long term, but more recent fundamental developments surrounding pipeline egress, refinery demand and increasing heavy oil supplies demonstrate that larger discounts can — and do — still happen. This problem could persist for several more months until a better balance is achieved in downstream markets. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest drivers of the wider price discounts for Western Canada’s heavy oil.

The twists and turns in the pricing saga of Western Canada’s heavy crude oil marker, Western Canadian Select (WCS), are seemingly endless. Used as the benchmark for heavy crude pricing, its value at the price hub of Hardisty, AB, is determined as a discount to the price of light crude oil benchmark WTI at Cushing, OK. The magnitude of that discount is a very important determinant in the price netback realized by heavy oil producers, which account for about 80% of all the crude produced in Western Canada. With that kind of weighting, the price of WCS and its discount is a very big deal.