Jobs Report -- September 29, 2016

Claims rose to 254,000. And here. Well below the 260,000 forecast. Four-week moving average, down from 258,500 previously, at 256,000.

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Individual Health Insurance Premiums Soar -- Duluth News Tribune

Link here.  Data points:

• Minnesota: private health care insurance premiums to rise 67% next year
• follows BC/BS announcement earlier this summer it was eliminating all but one of its individual health policies
• insurance regulators: "premium increases are unacceptable but nothing they can do"

 

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Consumer Spending Drops; "Clouds" Federal Reserve Rate Hike Decision --  Reuters

Link here.  Data points:

• US consumer spending fell in August for the first time in seven months
• inflation showed "cautious signs of accelerating"
• US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity
• spending fell 0.1% (after accounting for inflation); analysts had expected a 0.1% gain

Not to worry: once higher gasoline prices kick in, consumer spending will increase. 

North Fork Oil Field

North Fork oil field is literally in the heart of the Bakken, about 10 miles southeast of Watford City. It is the most irregularly shaped oil field I have "reviewed" to date. It is about 40 sections -- squeezed in between Croff, Bear Den, Haystack Butte, Pembroke, Siverston, and Pershing -- all very good fields, and just south of the heart of the Bakken, the northeast corner of McKenzie County.

Permits

2016
32634, PNC, Abraxas, Yellowstone Boxer 1H, North Fork,
32633, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 2H, North Fork,
32632, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 3H, North Fork,
32631, conf, Abraxas, Yellowstone 4H, North Fork,


2015 (list is complete)
32100, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 9H, North Fork,
32099, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 8H, North Fork,
32098, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 7H, North Fork,
32097, conf, Abraxas, Stenehjem 6H, North Fork,
32071, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork,
32070, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork,
32069, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34A, North Fork,
32068, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork,
32067, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork,
32066, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34C, North Fork,
32065, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork,
32064, EXP, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34G, North Fork,
31524, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 31X-28DXA, North Fork,
31392, PNC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-17H, North Fork,
31168, PNC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 3-18-17H, North Fork,
31167, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 15H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 17 days;
31166, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 14H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 16 days;
31165, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 13H, North Fork, did produce 11K bbls over first 15 days;
31164, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 12H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 12 days;
31163, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 11H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 8 days;
31162, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 10H, North Fork, did produce 6K bbls over first 9 days;
30925, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 TFH, North Fork,
30922, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9 MBH, North Fork,
30911, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 24-9 TFH, North Fork,
30870, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, North Fork,
30872, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 MBH-3SH, North Fork,
31020, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9MTFH-ULW, North Fork,
30924, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 MBH, North Fork,
30923, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH, North Fork,
30916, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 MBH-ULW, North Fork,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH, North Fork,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH, North Fork,
30910, conf, BR, Curtis 24-9 MBH, North Fork,
30871, conf, BR, Curtis 21-16 TFH-3NH, North Fork,
30869, conf, BR, Curtis 21-16 MBH-2NH, North Fork,
30487, conf, BR, Merton 14010TFH, North Fork,
30486, conf, BR, Merton 14-10MBH, North Fork,
30485, conf, BR, Jerome 14-10MBH, North Fork,

2014 (list is complete)
30282, 2,806, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, North Fork, 27 stages; 5 million lbs; t9/16; cum 71K 2/17;
30281, 3,487, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, 26 stages, 5.2 million bls, did produce 2K bbls over first 13 days; t9/16; cum 86K 2/17;
30280, 3,327, BR, Merton 21-15TFH, North Fork, 4 sections, 26 stages; 11.7 million lbs, t9/16; cum 93K 2/17;
30223, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15TFH, North Fork,
30222, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork,
30221, conf, BR, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork,
29990, 686, Abraxas, Stenehjem 5H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 84K 7/16; only 9 days in 7/16;
29780, 745, Abraxas, Ravin 8H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 103K 8/16;
29779, 833, Abraxas, Sten-Rav 1H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 96K 7/16;
28794, 922, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-5H, North Fork, t4/15; cum 128K 7/16;
28793, 890, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-6H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 118K 7/16;
28792, 993, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-7H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 12K 7/16;
28791, 923, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-8H, North Fork, t6/15; cum 118K 7/16;
28393, 1,328, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9G, North Fork, t4/15; cum 80K 7/16;
28392, 1,705, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9D, North Fork, t4/15; cum 104K 7/16;
28391, 1,163, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9H, North Fork, t4/15; cum 96K 7/16;
28323, 917, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-4H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 132K 7/16; off-line as of 6/16;
28322, 950, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-3H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 143K 7/16; off-line as of 6/16;
28321, 788, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-2H, North Fork, t12/14; cum 96K 7/16; off-line as of 7/16;

2013 (list is complete)
26885, 1,141, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-4H, North Fork, t10/14; cum 66K 12/14;
26884, 1,395, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-5H, North Fork, t8/14; cum 85K 12/14;
26883, 1,594, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-6H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 88K 12/14;
26882, 1,473, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-7H, North Fork, t9/14; cum 75K 12/14;
26639, EXP, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13E, North Fork
25433, 783, Slawson, Mauser Federal 7-18-17H, North Fork, t11/13; cum 135K 7/16; 0 days in 7/16; 23 days in 6/16;
25432, 720, Slawson, Mauser Federal 4-18-17TFH, North Fork, t11/13; cum 144K 7/16; only 5 days in 7/16;
25202, SI/NC, BR, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, 4 sections, North Fork, produced 7K bbls over first 19 days;
25201, 3,360, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, 4 sections, North Fork, t8/16; cum 11K over first 25 days;
25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, 4 sections, North Fork, 24 stages; 4.7 million lbs, t8/16; cum --
25199, 2,928, BR, Merton 21-15mBH 2NH, 4 sections, North Fork, 30 stages; 5.7 million lbs, t8/16; cum --

2012 (list is complete)
23893, 859, Slawson, Mauser Federal 1-18-17TFH, North Fork, t11/13; cum 123K 7/16; only 7 days in 7/16; 13 days in 6/16; 25 days in 5/16;
23266, 1,849, XTO, Mariana Trust 12X-20H, North Fork, t3/13; cum 146K 7/16; only 3 days 6/16; 14 days 5/15; back on line 7/16;
22996, 761, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-3H, North Fork, t10/12; cum 132K 12/14;
22995, 1,160, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-1H, North Fork, t6/14; cum 94K 12/14;
22994, 1,049, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-4H, North Fork, t5/14; cum 105K 12/14;
22993, 790, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-2H, North Fork, t6/14; cum 89K 12/14;

2011 (list is complete)
21995, 706, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-3H, North Fork, t2/13; cum 76K 12/14;
21994, 658, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-2H, North Fork, t2/13; cum 55K 12/14;
20767, PNC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-11,
20725, PNC, XTO, Cherry Creek Federal 11X-15B,
20724, PNC, XTO, Johnson Federal 11X-15B,
20706, PNC, BR, Jerome 31-15TFH-2SH, 
20705, PNC, BR, Merton 31-15TFH-3NH, 
20704, PNC, BR, Jerome 31-15MBH-3SH, 
20703, PNC, BR, Merton 31-15MBH-2NH, 
20501, 1,801, XTO, Wolff 13-24ENH, t8/11; cum 194K 7/16; only 17 days 6/16;  

Earlier:
19331, PNC, Bakken, North Fork,
19237, 862, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-1H, Bakken, North Fork, t7/11; cum 130K 8/16; pretty much off-line since 4/16; no production all of 7/16 - 8/16;
19054, 1,008, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-1H, North Fork, t1/11; cum 194K 8/16;

BR With Four New Veeder Permits -- September 29, 2016

Active rigs:

	9/29/2016	09/29/2015	09/29/2014	09/29/2013	09/29/2012
Active Rigs	34	69	186	184	190

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
32472, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21D, Heart Butte, no production data,

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 32282, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21CXD, Heart Butte, no production data,

One producing well reported at completed (DUC):

• 25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, 4 sections, North Fork, t8/16; cum --

Four new permits:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
• Comments:

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DUCs

Over at the Discussion Group, a reader had a question about DUCs. I provided my 2-cents worth. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

Saudi Arabia, OPEC Announce Cut; Two Hotels In Williston To Close -- September 29, 2016

Minimal blogging through the weekend; traveling. 

Active rigs:

	9/29/2016	09/29/2015	09/29/2014	09/29/2013	09/29/2012
Active Rigs	34	69	186	184	190

RBN Energy: US DUCs.

At long last, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported an “official” estimate of the U.S. drilled-and-uncompleted well (DUC) inventory as part of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report.  DUCs are a critical factor in forecasting production trends, as many of these wells are likely to be some of the first to come online as soon as prices move higher and thus have the potential to boost production quicker and easier than would otherwise be the case. However, the number of DUCs has been a difficult thing to measure, though not for lack of trying. There are, in fact, widely varying counts from many different sources circulating in the industry. Today, we begin a short series on these latest DUC counts and their potential implications.

Drilled-and-uncompleted wells, or DUCs, aren’t a new phenomenon. In fact, producers have always carried an inventory of DUCs. But in the environment of low prices and slashed capital budgets the market has been experiencing for the past 20 months or so, DUCs have taken on new relevance, not only as a tool for producers to manage their lease agreements and rig activity, but also as a control valve for production volumes, whether it is to defer supply to a future date or to quickly and economically turn on new production as prices rebound and/or as pipeline capacity is built. You can imagine, then, how without an accurate estimate of DUCs and the rate of actual completions, the current market is ripe for underestimating future production volumes that solely rely on existing and newly drilled wells.

Saudi Arabia's trillion dollar mistake. CNBC.  From WSJ.

Sources told Reuters that OPEC hammered out a deal on Wednesday to reduce the cartel's production to 32.5 million barrels per day from around 33.24 million, with output levels for each member to be determined in November.

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Hoboken Commuter Train Crash

Updates

October 1, 2016: I remember when this story first broke. Every update in the first 12 hours said that the engineer was cooperating with law enforcement. Now, we learn that as of today, investigators have still not talked with the engineer, and that asbestos concerns in the terminal has slowed down the investigation. The investigation is expected to last a full year. 

Original Post 

At least one dead; 70+ injured; in commuter train accident, Hoboken, NJ. Thank goodness it did not involve Bakken crude oil. I wonder if NY/NJ governors will ban commuter trains which have now killed more Americans than CBR carrying Bakken oil. Or any oil for that matter. All that technology being spent on "driverless cars" seems to be a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. Maybe they should be working on "driveless" technology for killer kommuter trains. Latest: the killer kommuter konductor had "health problems." (TV report, McDonald's, crawler, 12:16 p.m. Central Time.)

By the way, FWIW, another Tesla "on auto-pilot" crashes -- this one on German autobahn. 

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Bakken Economy

Two Williston Hotels Closing

The Dickinson Press:

The Missouri Flats Inn, once featured on a TV reality show “Hotel Impossible,” and the Marquis Plaza and Suites will be closing their doors this week.

In addition, it appears that man-camps in the Williston area, including the large one near Tioga, have closes. I can't say for sure, but I saw no vehicles parked at any man-camps in the Williston area (there may have some minor exceptions). The man-camp on the Alexander bypass appeared closed (hard to say) but "rooms" were advertised at $24.99/ night. My understanding is that man-camps in Williston were to be closed by September 1, 2016, but there was some question regarding compliance. In flux. Perhaps a local newspaper will provide updates.

It appear the El Rancho Motel is closed pending a sale (again, I do not know for sure). The co-located restaurant remains open.

For some notes and photos of the hotel boom in North Dakota at the height of the boom:

• photos of several hotels, motels in Williston

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The Market

Mid-day trading: Dow 30 down 162 points. Oil up the past two days on OPEC's announcement: up to $47.69 (which is no better than $40 for Saudi Arabia).