Lightning To USB-C -- November 24, 2023

Locator: 46160APPLE.

Link here.

The world is rightfully celebrating the iPhone’s switch from Lightning to USB-C this week. 

People love to hate on Lightning — and they have good reasons to. Many of the world’s most popular devices now use USB-C ports, including Apple’s own iPads, meaning iPhone owners have been stuck toting around an extra cable just for their phone and its accessories. But if you’ve been living in the Lightning world for the past decade like I have, things have been great anyway. I’m not ashamed to say it: I’m sad that Lightning is finally going away. The Lightning Life, at least if you have an iPhone, has been convenient. Using a Lightning cable hardly requires any thought — its biggest revelation, at first, was that it could charge your phone no matter which way you plugged it in, a huge improvement over Apple’s old 30-pin connector. Plugging it into my iPhone when I’m sleepy before bed never feels like a hassle.

The connector’s small size has kept everything Lightning-related small and portable, too. Back in 2012, when Apple debuted the Lightning port on the iPhone 5, this compact size was a huge part of what made the announcement so exciting.

Lightning was 80 percent smaller than the comparatively huge 30-pin connector the iPhone had used before. That meant that Apple’s products — and the cables themselves — could look that much nicer. I can’t prove this, but I have to imagine that the iPhone 5’s sleek look was due in part to the switch to the smaller Lightning connector, and those tiny changes add up to saved space in a bag or pocket. Not only are the cords themselves easy to travel with but the Lightning standard also created a generation of reliable and portable travel accessories. It powers one of my favorite Apple devices ever: the MagSafe Duo.

In spite of Dieter Bohn’s middling impressions, I picked one up on sale and, frankly, I adore it. It’s a low-profile way for me to charge my iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods whenever I’m at my desk. When I travel, I can just fold up the MagSafe Duo and slip it into a small pocket in my backpack so that I can easily charge my devices at my final destination. And even at home, the Lightning Life has been reliable.

I never worry that Apple’s Lightning cables will randomly stop charging my devices (though I’ve been lucky to avoid some of the durability issues Lightning cables are sometimes known for). Apple’s solid magnets and the MagSafe Duo mean that my iPhone and Apple Watch almost always start charging as soon as I drop them on their charging spots — there’s no fussing around to make sure they’re aligned correctly.

Go to the link for the rest of the story.

From The Bat Cave -- S1 E3 -- November 24, 203

Locator: 46159BC1:3.

Wiki.

Be sure to read the comments.

Runaround Sue, a cover:

Back To The Bakken: No New Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- November 24, 2023

Locator: 46154B.

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $75.54.

New permits: none.

Six permits renewed

• CLR (4): four Sodbuster permits, Epping oil field, Williams County;
• Enerplus: (2)one Enduro permit and one Hobby permit, both in South Fork oil field; Dunn County;

Week 47: November 14, 2023 -- November 21, 2023

Locator: 46153TOPSTORY.

Top, top story:

• Israel-Gaza: multi-day ceasefire while hostages / POWs are released / exchanged.
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Top story

• US Senate won't confirm US military leaders; GOP senator says DOD oversteps authority
  

Top international non-story story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues; drags on and on and on; starting to take backseat to Israel-Gaza;
  
• Russia most recently invaded February 22, 2022
• the war actually goes back to 2014
  
• Israel-Hamas war: apparently "okay" to negotiate with terrorists now
• The end of an era: Apple retires the Lightning cable; all charging cables not USB-C.
  

Top international energy story:

• OPEC in disarray; production quotas at issue as price off oil continues to fall;
  

Top national non-energy story:

• US on-line shopping smashes Black Friday records;

Top national energy story:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

• Geoff Simon's quick links.

Bakken economy:

• holding in there -- active rigs running about 36;

Commentary:

The VIX: Hits A 52-Week Low -- November 24, 2023

Locator: 46152VIX.

The all-time low for the VIX was about 10.

Today: hit a 52-week low.

**********************
Avian Flu Update

Be glad you aren't a chicken:

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The Book Page 

Wow, talk about coincidental. I mentioned the other day I was in my "Richard III" phase and reading Chris Skidmore's biography of Richard III. This past week I finished as much of the book as I wanted, saying it can now be returned to the library. I've sent for my own copy, so I can mark it up as I read it.

Well, today, of all things, The WSJ has a book review regarding Richard III and the "two princes in The Tower" that disappeared around the time Richard III took the throne. The twins were in line for the throne, ahead of Richard (III).

Link here. 

I have no plans to read the book. It doesn't matter whether Richard III killed them or not -- they disappeared and had no impact on the rest of British history. It's a nonstory.

I'm not even curious. Anyone who knows the history of the British royal family between  the years 1300 and 1700 knows this story has no legs. 

What is so much more interesting is sorting out the history of the Neville family beginning in 1200, or thereabouts, and following the family through Sir Henry Neville. My random notes on the subject are posted here. It's interesting that Brenda James hasn't released a biography of the Neville family.

Whatever.

I'm done with British royalty for now. I've moved on to Edith Wharton. Just beginning. Notes on Hermione Lee's biography of Edith Wharton are here.

Now, We Have A Nitrogen Problem -- Friday -- November 24, 2023

Locator: 46151B.

My favorite topic (after the Bakken): this is what I find most interesting about this chart: for those "following" Buffett, buying PRG anytime in the past ten years would have been a no-brainer. Could you have seen this a few years ago? Sure, check out the five-year time scale. How about a year ago? Check out the one-year time scale. And one could have done this anywhere along the line in real-time.

Same would hold true for AAPL, but perhaps on a shorter time scale. I'm curious. Let's compare AAPL with PGR over five years:

So, there you have it. Why the greatest investor of all time bought AAPL and not PGR.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.08.

Sunday, November 26, 2023: 135 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 705 for the year
38781, conf, Oasis Peregrine 54001 442-24 3B,
37108, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3C UTFH,

Saturday, November 25, 2023: 133 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 703 for the year
39144, conf, Enerplus LK Bice 147-96-6-31-1H,

Friday, November 24, 2023: 132 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 702 for the year
39773, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 3-18H1,
38782, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 4B,
38780, conf, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 2B,

RBN Energy: high-nitroen Permian natural gas mucks up Texas gulf coast LNG feedgas. I've not heard this to be a problem with Bakken oil.

There’s a lot of nitrogen out there — it’s the seventh-most common element in the universe and the Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen (and only 21% oxygen). And there’s certainly nothing new about nitrogen in the production, processing and delivery of natural gas. That’s because all natural gas contains at least a little nitrogen.

But lately, the nitrogen content in some U.S. natural gas has become a real headache, and it’s getting worse.

There are two things going on.

First, a few counties in the Permian’s Midland Basin produce gas with unusually high nitrogen content, and those same counties have been the Midland’s fastest-growing production area the past few years.

Second, there’s the LNG angle.

LNG is by far the fastest-growing demand sector for U.S. gas.

LNG terminals here in the U.S. and buyers of U.S. LNG don’t like nitrogen one little bit. As an inert gas (meaning it does not burn), nitrogen lowers the heating value of the LNG and takes up room (lowers the effective capacity) in the terminal’s liquefaction train.

Bottom line, nitrogen generally mucks up the process of liquefying, transporting and consuming LNG, which means that nitrogen is a considerably more problematic issue for LNG terminals than for most domestic gas consumers. So as the LNG sector increases as a fraction of total U.S. demand, the nitrogen issue really comes to the fore. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore why high nitrogen content in gas is happening now, why it matters and how bad it could get.

Headlines - November 24, 2023

Locator: 46150B.

Black Friday: private poll — 100% of respondents already burned out with Black Friday ads. Size of polled group? One. Me.

Lego: front page WSJ story.

Whiskey: Michter’s first. Interesting dots to connect. Connects back to Mitch McConnell. Unrelated link here.

Nividia: another buying opportunity today for investors with 30-day horizon.

OpenAI: something really scary “discovered” by Sam Altman? The buzzword: unnerving. Momentous jump forward: artificial general intelligence (AGI). I would love to say more but I can’t articulate it and I would get too much pushback. 

Hint: it’s already been discussed on the blog. It has to do with this: Altman presented his “machine” with a math question — a simple math question from a middle-school textbook — but did not provide the “machine” with code to solve it.The “machine” came up with a novel way — never before seen” approach — to solving the math problems. The machine refused to give up its answer (thinking process). 

My first thoughts? The Rosetta Stone on steroids. Einstein’s breakthroughs. The Periodic Table and Mendeleev. August Kekulé visualizing the structure of benzene. An ornithologist’s model of DNA. What Covid-19 might have been but wasn’t.

“Open the door, Hal.”

Black Friday: with same day delivery, does Black Friday even matter any more? Consumers know prices will drop the longer they wait. Could “Amazon” shoppers opt for quiet Christmas on December 25th and opening presents on December 28th? Why not order gifts as a family Christmas Eve and open them on Boxing Day as they arrive?

Elephant learning: some find it hard to cancel. Be careful. For my daughter.

Economy: services inflation is the problem, not products inflation. 

Citi chief economist: still projecting a recession sooner than later (2024). Confounding: productivity numbers in US have been great. CAPEX: 2023 inflow was the largest in 50 years. But: consumer sentiment —  4ourth consecutive monthly decline.

Calendar: 31 days between Black Friday and Christmas. Almost as long as possible. Next year: 26 days. Black Friday: largest shopping day but not biggest spending day. Biggest spending day? Saturday before Christmas, just like last year. Everyone is working x increased wages (UAW) = increased spending. 

Products inflation is over. Exhibit A: eggs. 

Finland: oh-oh. Bizarre but written by Charles Kennedy so a must-read.

Nissan: UK EV investment.

On-line searches, Black Friday: top three jn this order — Target, Walmart, Lowe’s. When I don’t see Amazon at #1, I wonder what “they” were measuring.

Barnes and Noble: continues to expand. Huge turnaround story. Complete autonomy to local managers. Wow! Really, really noticeable here in our highly conservative, right-wing, anti-Semitic locale. That’s not meant to be inflammatory. My comment is either accurate or huge perception. Not mutually exclusive. Having said that, I think there’s another reason for B&N’s (perceived) turnaround. Location, location, location. And … timing.

Tech rally: not over. Exciting. Amazing.

Bored/boring? Suggestions. Okay. 

Even I couldn’t make this stuff up. After reading this, I’m willing to stay boring. But I’m certainly not bored. Not enough hours in the day to do everything I want to do. Top of my list? 5ive-day road trips. Have done three (?) in past year. Several already planned for 2024 and one last one in 2023. Plus one last AA round trip in December.

Portland: can downtown survive?

QR codes today? CNBC caught this story earlier this week. Truly amazing. We will be reporting from the Bat Cave.

When Amazon struck its 11-year deal for “Thursday Night Football” in 2021 at an annual cost of $1.2 billion, it sought an additional game to make up for not having one on Thanksgiving or in the last week of the season. 

After its first season in 2022, Amazon and the league agreed to create a Black Friday game. Amazon is making a football feast out of the game with an extended pregame show and celebrity chef David Chang on hand as well to tell viewers how to make the most of those Thanksgiving leftovers. After the game, Amazon is streaming a Garth Brooks concert.

QR codes today? Link here. [Later: watching the game from the Bat Cave. Already one QR code for a LEGO set reduced from $499 too $399. It is amazing all the specials, advertising, use of drones. Amazon is setting a new standard for streaming a football game -- the pre-game, now.]

Market: pre-market trading — more good news? Perhaps. But overall? Scary. Numbers look good but narrative is very concerning. It’s not good news if Fed cuts rates.

Gaza: 4our-day cease-fire has started and “seems to be holding.” That settles that: it's okay to negotiate with terrorists. Are we starting to see Israel’s transition to “police-stating” / quasi-annexing northern Gaza?