EV Rust Belt -- March 31, 2026

Locator: 50382EVS.

Interesting, huh? High gasoline prices won't rescue EVs this time around. 

Ticker: Rivian -- 

Back to GM:

 

And Ford?

Unbelievable -- The Day The Music Died -- February 6, 2026

Locator: 49922EVS.

This $26 billion financial hit --  mainstream media suggests this happened overnight but it's been going on for quite some time now. Check "STLA" and set time frame to "five years" or "max." There's no way this can be sugar-coated.

Link here. 

Link here.

The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49914EVS. 

Link here. 

And then BYD:

**********************
And, Then, Of Course, There's Rivian

Link here. 

The downgrade hits Rivian stock at a vulnerable moment. The company just reported 2025 deliveries of 42,247 vehicles, down 18% from the prior year and slightly below Wall Street’s forecast.

EVs: The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49908EVS.

For EVs, the day the music died:

Investing, Part 2 -- February 2, 2026

Locator: 49882MARKET.  

At / near the close:

DIS: worst performer on the Dow. Dropped 7% today. Evenso, it's amazing how much time CNBC spends on DIS. Now, on top of everything else, Bob Iger is checking out. Lame Duck.

AAPL: huge day.

PLUG: for me, this is the second biggest story of the day.

BYD: this is the biggest story of the day. The day the music died.  

GLW: up $8.55. I still remember how I discovered GLW. It was watching Apple (AAPL).

CAT: up $34 today. P/E: 37. Rule-of-forty: 31%.

MU: company’s rule-of-forty has recently exceeded 50 - 60%. 

The Day The Music Died -- GM's Sales Surge -- GM's Earnings Surge -- The End Of GM's Hobby Horse -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49859EVS.

Still lots of EV losses.

General Motors reported a $3.3 billion net loss in 4Q25, largely driven by over $7 billion in charges and special, noncash impairment charges related to restructuring its electric vehicle (EV) strategy, cutting production, and canceling supplier contracts. Despite this, adjusted earnings remained strong at $2.8 billion due to solid ICE vehicle performance.

Takeway: this show absolutely how much money GM makes on ICE vehicles.  

**********************
Still One Of My Favorites

Link here. 

Today: 

• the third angle, The Third Man -- perhaps my favorite movie -- perhaps even better than Casablanca. 
• The Third Man theme, link here.

Like TYWKIWDBI, we both started our blogs in 2007. Interesting, huh? I deleted all posts from 2007 through 2008, and started fresh sometime in 2009. But I started blogging in 2007.

Link here. 

Directory.

The Year The Music Died -- January 22, 2026

Locator: 49788EVS. 

Link here. 

Automobile Sales -- January, 2026, Data -- The Day The Music Died -- Posted January 2, 2025

Locator: 49784EVS.

EV: reminder -- tax credits, etc, ended September 30, 2025 --  

• coincided with end of 3W25
• coincided with end of US federal government fiscal year

4Q25 data -- first quarter in which tax credits were no longer available. Decrease in sales were expected, and percentage decline would have been exaggerated by surge of buying in 3Q25 before tax credits were no longer available.  

Tesla, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

• delivered 418,227 vehicles
• down from 495,570 deliveries from one year ago
• below the consensus estimate: 440,907
• TSLA: shares down 1.2%
• so, 
• estimate: 441,000
• actual: < 420,000
• 5% worse than expected, and 
• down 16% from one year ago  

Rivian, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

• delivered 9,745 vehicles (these numbers are atrocious)
• down from 14,183 deliveries from one year ago
• consensus estimate not provided
• RIVN: shares down 2.2%
• so, 
• one year ago: 14,183
• this quarter: 9,745 
• down 31% from one year ago  
• history: it appears that Rivian recorded an all-time high of 13,201 deliveries 3Q25
• for perspective, 12,640 deliveries, 2Q23
• overall 2025 performance
• delivered 42,247 vehicles vs 51,579, full year 2024
• an 18% decrease from 2024, slightly below analyst expectations
• 2024, full year: 51,579. 
• 3Q: 13,201 or 31% (straight line would have been 25%)
• 4Q: 9,745 or or 23%
• 9,745 extrapolates an rate of 38,980, or  
• 92% of total deliveries, 2025
• 75% of total deliveries, 2024 
• one wonders how they will spin this; three more years of Trump.  

***************************
BYD

Sales decline y/y (fourth quarter).

Full-year sales at 4.6 million met their revised target.

Surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer overtaking Tesla.

Unlike Tesla and Rivian (both pure-play EVs), 50% of BYD's sales are BEVs; 50% are PHEV (fake EVs).

Chinese market is saturated; reports strong export performance. 

Just Breaking -- WSJ -- Where Does One Even Begin? The Day The Music Died -- December 15, 2025

Locator: 49711FORD.

Updates

December 16, 2025: but Ford isn't giving up on EVs. Memo for record -- Ford will discontinue current Lightning F-150 (with poor towing capability and 300-mile range) to F-150 on steroids (towing capacity of a "locomotive" and a 700-mile range). Why don't we have this today? 

December 16, 2025:  

December 16, 2025:

December 16, 2025: Kentucky battery plant -- all 1,600 jobs cut. Link here.

Original Post

Lightning F-150: one of the best-selling EVs by many accounts prior to today. Will completely stop building the Lightning.

Appears to have been posted by The WSJ just after the market closed for the day.

Front page: 

This is all AI had moments before the close:

This is all old news; all AI had at the close of business today:

But they still can't quit altogether. Note last paragraph in the lede from The WSJ today:

Ford said Monday it expects to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. [Amazing how they round this to come in under $20 billion.]

The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.  

Ford, which has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023, said it would bolster its lineup of gas-powered vehicles while shifting to hybrid and so-called extended-range electric vehicles that include onboard gasoline engines. [Fake EVs.]

The goal is to pull back from loss-making assets and redeploy capital designated for EVs to models with higher profitability. 

“Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting,” Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley said in an interview. “We now know enough about the U.S. market where we have a lot more certainty in this second inning” of reduced-emissions powertrains, he said. ["... will never make money." Large EVs have large margins; small EVs have small margins.]

Regulatory changes and lackluster demand from Americans are forcing U.S. automakers to abandon plans to quickly step to an electric-vehicle future. Ford, which had bet big on EV, is now making one of the industry’s biggest changes to its business.

The company said it remains on track to produce a $30,000 EV pickup for sale by 2027, which the company says will be the first in a new string of low-cost EVs. “Now this is the core of our EV strategy in America,” Farley said. “We’ve got to land the plane.”

Ticker F today: mostly flat. Full year -- trading near its one-year high -- 

Lucid: lost another 6% today and for the year is down almost 60%. The back stop for this company: Saudi Arabia, the country (PIF)

Rivian: actually doing quite well for the year. The backstop for this company: Amazon, holds 13% of the stock. VW committed to using the technology. Saudi group invested. 

Tesla: not unexpected in light of Ford's news. TSLA up $16, almost 4%. 

Random Note On EVs -- The Day The Music Stopped -- December 11, 2025

Locator: 49688EVS. 

Autos.

Who would have predicted this two years ago?

They will try to spin it the best they can, but the short answer is this: both Farley and Barra blew it when it came to EVs. 

 

Link here. 

*****************************
Meanwhile, Rivian Fell Another 6% Today

Tuesday -- December 2, 2025

Locator: 49588B.

Google: analysis over at x. Link here. Note: I've never invested directly in Google. I assume some of my managed accounts and ETFs hold GOOG. Market cap: $3.8 trillion. Contributor says GOOG needs to be seen as a $4 trillion market cap company.

EVs: absolutely not unexpected. Link here. 

Rivian: upbeat analysis. Link here. 

XOM: eyes Lukoil's huge Iraqi oilfield as US sanctions forces sales. 

MU: flashback. Probably one of my best posts on Micron ever. Link here. Recent, link here. Dell. 

****************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $59.20.

New wells reporting:

Wednesday, December 3, 2025: 9 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 716 for the year,

• 41775, conf, CLR, Rose Federal 3-34H
• 41774, conf, CLR, Rose Federal 2-34H, 
• 41222, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 4H, 
• 41221, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 3H, 
• 41220, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 1H, 
• 41138, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 2H, 
• 41025, conf, Devon Energy, Helling 16-21 5H, 
• 36701, conf, BR, Muri 2D-UTFH, 

Tuesday, December 2, 2025: 1 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 708 for the year,

• None.

RBN Energy: Targa continues its sour-gas expansion with stakeholder deal. Archived. 

Few parts of the gas gathering and processing sector have been hotter lately than the Northern Delaware Basin, where crude-oil-focused wells rock also generate large volumes of sour associated gas packed with hydrogen sulfur (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Targa Resources, already the largest sour gas processor in the Permian, doubled down on that specialty on December 1 with the announcement that it will acquire Stakeholder Midstream, another player in that space, for a cool $1.25 billion. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the deal and the assets that come with it.

In our recent three-part blog series on sour gas processors in southeastern New Mexico and the counties just east of there in West Texas, we said the Permian’s Northern Delaware is the epicenter of U.S. crude oil production growth, with New Mexico’s Eddy and Lea counties accounting for an astounding 52% of U.S. production growth from 2020-24, a four-year gain of nearly 1 MMb/d in just two counties. That growth, which has continued through the first 11 months of 2025, came as a result of producers like EOG Resources, Devon Energy, Mewbourne Oil, Occidental Petroleum and Matador Resources perfecting their drilling-and-completion techniques and — with their midstream partners — solving the area’s #1 challenge: dealing with elevated levels of H2S and CO2 in much of the associated gas that emerges from many wells there.

We also looked at how high the H2S and CO2 concentrations can be and the approaches midstream companies can use to bring down those levels. Generally speaking, the most effective way to slash H2S and CO2 content in associated gas is to run the gas through a centralized amine treatment facility, then compress the resulting H2S/CO2 mix into a supercritical liquid and inject it into an acid gas injection (AGI) well for permanent sequestration. (A bonus: The CO2 sequestration can provide federal tax credits.)

Sensing a unique opportunity, Targa Resources over the past few years has been expanding its gas gathering and processing presence in the Northern Delaware through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth. Targa, the region’s largest treater of sour gas, currently has a total of 2.3 Bcf/d of centralized amine treatment capacity in the basin, including 920 MMcf/d at its Red Hills sour gas treating and processing complex in southern Lea County (blue triangle near center of Figure 1 below) and 850 MMcf/d at its Bull Moose facility across the state line in Winkler County, TX. The company also has seven AGI wells (brown dots) with the capacity to inject a total of more than 30 MMcf/d of liquefied H2S/CO2.

A Most Interesting Phenomenon -- Record High Price For New Cars -- Yet Sales Remain Strong -- November 23, 2025

Locator: 49785AUTOS.

I think this is incredibly bullish. It would be interesting to see the demographics: what demographic accounts for these numbers? 

But then this.  

Random Note On The Ford F-150 Lightning -- November 16, 2025

Locator: 49728EVS.

For the archives. There is a huge misreading / misinterpretation of the data by the author.

Link here. 

Hint: I've walked across the street to check out the newest Tesla out of curiosity. But I was, in no way interested / interested in buying a Tesla.

In the old days, people would flock to grotesque "features" at circuses, but that doesn't mean they were were "interested" in them as something they would want to adopt, marry, or bring home to the kids.

EV Sales -- November 10, 2025

Locator: 49384EVS.

The stories below tell me two things:

• the pie (global EV sales) may or may not be getting bigger but more automakers are entering the sector, certainly leading to more competition, and perhaps smaller slices of the pie for the automakers;
• in the US, presence or absence of tax credits will make or break many EV manufacturers. 

Link here. 

Link here. 

Link here. 

Link here. 

 

 

 

The Day The Music Died -- Rivian Cuts 4% Of It Workforce -- October 23, 2025

Locator: 49483EVS.

Link here. 

A month ago, the company did a smaller round of layoffs, affecting 1.5% of its workforce. It said the move was to reduce costs ahead of the launch of a more affordable sport-utility vehicle next year. 

Rivian and other EV manufacturers are being hit hard by the pullback in policies that supported the adoption of electric vehicles. The end of a $7,500 federal tax credit for consumers buying EVs is expected to tank sales. 

The policy changes have derailed the sales of compliance credits that have been an important source of profitability for Rivian and others. Rivian has said that the changes could result in an estimated $100 million in revenue being held up. 

Rivian’s vehicle sales grew 32% to 13,201 vehicles in the third quarter, but the company narrowed its delivery guidance for the full year to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles after previously forecasting as many as 46,000 deliveries. Rivian reports its full quarterly earnings on November 4, 2025.

Re-Sale Value Of EVs -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49270EVS. 

Tag: POVs re-sale used cars underwater depreciation 

We've talked about this before; I can't find the original post regarding depreciation of cars, in general, and EVs in particular.  

From July 20, 2019: This was back in 2019 -- wow --

This was a big story on CNBC this morning after Tesla's numbers came out: 

*****************************
The Movie Page

Link here. 

Owen Wilson's five favorite Owen Wilson films.  

The Day The Music Died -- October 1, 2025

Locator: 49264EVS.   

This note from Ford today. Link here. 

When you think about this, it's amazing how fast things can change.

It's also amazing how much the EV manufacturers depended on the federal / state incentives. 

GM reported healthy growth during 3Q25. Shares increased 0.6% or 37 cents.

US pharmaceutical shares surged today.

Musk is now worth one-half trillion dollars on paper. He really doesn't have that much cash in his billfold.

Why I Love To Blog -- That Ariya Story Update? I First Posted About The Ariya In 2022 Along With Buggigieg -- September 21, 2025

Locator: 49175EVS.

This just shows how long it takes for EV manufacturers to ramp up and how a new administration can completely disrupt plans. And then when Trump is out of office, it's very possible, EVs will be back in vogue.  

From July 23, 2022, link here:

 

And, The WSJ  -- "The Upside-Down Logic of Electric SUVs."  

From the other day, September 20, 2025, link here: 

The Day The Music Died -- September 20, 2025

Locator: 49167EVS.

Breaking: Texas Tech (#17) absolutely annihilates Utah (#16). Led by freshman quarterback. Texas Tech makes a statement, 34 - 10. 

Updates 

October 1, 2025: Ford's monthly sales results, the end of the EV federal subsidies, and Ford's assessment of EVs now. Link here.

September 25, 2025: Honda to end production of Acura EV assembled by GM in US (GM's Spring Hill assembly plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, about an hour south of Nashville).

September 22, 2025: EVs reality check. Canada. Link here.

September 21, 2025: it's gonna take longer than expected. Link here. 

September 21, 2025: BRK / Warren Buffett completely drops out of Chinese EV market -- a Charlie Munger recommendation -- link here.

Original Post

Now back to regular programming:

Two big stories just off the radar scope. Stories dwarfed by all the tech stories coming out of the US. The gap between the US and the EU continues to widen. 

Porsche (VW): will scrap planned release of a new range of electric vehicles; link here.

Volkswagen has warned of a €5.1bn hit to its operating profits this year after its sports-car maker Porsche said it would delay the rollout of its electric vehicles and prolong internal combustion engine products. 

Europe’s largest carmaker is lowering its annual profit guidance for the second time this year, blaming “a dramatically declining demand” for luxury goods in China and a 15 per cent US tariff on vehicles imported from Europe.

EU vows to deliver 2035 climate target before COP30. Link here. But the story is in the fine print. The EU continues to deindustrialize, does it even matter any more?

• countries couldn't come to solid agreement; to save face, agreed on a "vague statement" of intent in lieu of a new plan mandated by the Paris Agreement 
• from the linked article:

The European Union’s leaders will arrive at a global climate summit next week with a vague promise to soon deliver a new emissions-cutting target after ministers struck a face-saving deal Thursday evening.

The United Nations has called on world leaders to present their climate plans for 2035, a requirement under the 2015 Paris Agreement, at a meeting in New York next Wednesday.

But EU governments have struggled to find the consensus required to agree on the plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) in U.N. jargon. Earlier this week they acknowledged they would miss the end-September deadline for the new targets.

To avoid showing up empty-handed in New York, countries resorted to drafting a “statement of intent.”

Other news:

• Ram cancels all plans to make an electric 1500 pickup; link here.
• carries on with massive V6 plug-in hybrid version instead
• Nissan halves LEAF production before launch; 
• cancels the Ariya in the US; link here. Link here.