Wow -- Baylor -- Texas Women Take National Championship -- April 7, 2019

From ESPN:

TAMPA, Fla. -- At this time last year, Chloe Jackson was not on the Baylor women's basketball team. Today, she is its national championship savior and most outstanding player.

Jackson hit a driving layup with 3.9 seconds remaining, lifting Baylor to an 82-81 win over Notre Dame on Sunday night.

Baylor coach Kim Mulkey joins Geno Auriemma and Pat Summitt as the only coaches in women's Division I history with three or more national titles. As the final buzzer sounded, Mul

key broke down in tears as she received a full embrace from her entire staff.

Mulkey and the Lady Bears would not have gotten it without Jackson, who saved her best basketball for the Women's Final Four. Jackson hit a driving layup against Oregon with less than a minute remaining to get Baylor to the national championship game. The graduate transfer from LSU was sensational the entire game against Notre Dame, scoring a team-high 26 points as the key difference maker on both teams.

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NASCAR

How does he do it? Kyle Busch just won again. And earlier it looked like he would not win. Hamlin lost a lap due to speeding penalty entering pit.

Brother Kurt came in second.

Kyle started 12th.

Involved in a (minor) wreck the first second lap.

From NASCAR:

The race winner was involved in a multi-car crash on the second lap of the 500-lap affair, sustaining damage to the rear of his car. But he patiently worked his way back through the field. He took his first lead at lap 384.

The key to the win came late – Busch collected his third win of the season in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series and his eighth overall at Bristol Motor Speedway when he chose track position over fresh tires during the 11th and final caution of the race.

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RMDs

Baby boomers. Richest generation in US history.

Greatest generation: the parents of the boomers. The greatest generation: the first generation to leave money to their children, the boomers.

The baby boomers: 1946 - 1964.

I was born very, very early in the boomer generation.

I will start taking RMDs from IRAs soon -- not this year, not next year, but soon. Once we start taking RMDs, we will take RMDs for 26 years. And I'm at the beginning of that bow wave of those taking RMDs; I was among the early boomers.

I will most likely re-invest those RMDs.

But Uncle Sam will start to collect taxes on those RMDs.

We don't hear much talk about that, but my hunch is that by the time the peak of that bow wave hits, let's say ten years from now, the amount of money Uncle Sam collects from taxes on RMDs will not be trivial.

I thought about that (RMDs) when I read the Barron's headline and part of the story: the bull market could last another decade. 

World's Best Surfing, 2017

Catching Up On Graphics -- Nothing To See Here -- April 7, 2019

Ever since I began blogging about the Bakken I've been fascinated watching the the price of oil (whatever that means with 200+ varieties: WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, etc) and the various metrics that analysts use to track oil. Nothing seems to make sense. But that's fine. It's all fun.

Another metric: weekly US days of supply of crude oil.

I used to think that metric was important. Silly me.

US crude oil supply increasing. Price of crude oil climbing. Price of gasoline definitely climbing.

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Catching Up

After posting that graphic above, I realized I had forgotten to post two graphics, both of which I used to religiously post weekly.

Natural gas fill rate, link here, and so the year begins again:

That graph always reminds me of this song:

Wheel, Jerry Jeff Walker Gasoline demand, link here, one word: boring.

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The TV Cartoon Page

Favorite television cartoon: "Bob's Burgers."

Sophia's parents will not allow her to watch it. But it's my favorite, and Sophia knows it. 

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Flashback: It Was Jeb's Race To Lose

July 22, 2015: this seems so long ago.

It's Not The Headline That's Surprising

There are three story lines with this story. The headline: Hillary losing ground in battleground states. That headline is interesting but not as surprising as "the rest of the story." This is what is surprising:

• look at the spread head-to-head
• this is not against a generic "Republican" but against specific names (each with a lot of baggage)

But most surprising:

• it's being reported on ... CNN.

This is Jeb Bush's race to lose, and he will lose if Trump goes the Perot route.

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In the graphic above, does anyone even remember "Walker"? I don't. 

Aramco's True Breakeven Price -- Oilprice -- April 7, 2019

Updates

April 8, 2019: in the original post I wrote that I assumed Saudi Arabia could increase the size of its bond sale. Apparently it did:

Original Post

Before we get started, my two cents: the budget requirements for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is more important / more relevant than the "true" breakeven price.

From oilprice. Datapoints:

• Aramco information becoming available after the company's bond offering this past week; bond offering --
• $30 billion demand
• proposed offering: $10 billion
• one assumes they increase the size of the offering
• data from the bond filing
• Aramco, 2018, world's most profitable company
• earnings: $111 billion
• revenue: $356 billion
• free cash flow: $76 billion 
• Brent averaged $71.34/bbl
• Apple, second most profitable: $$60 billion
• ExxonMobil: $21 billion
• but note: Saudi Aramco struggled to break even in 2016 when Brent crude averaged about $45 / bbl
• net income: $13 billion
• free cash flow: $2 billion
• conclusion: Aramco's breakeven price is just about $40/bbl
• this author called OPEC's 2016 to open the spigot a "trillion dollar miscalculation"
• I called it a "trillion dollar mistake"
• author's bottom line: "we will likely never again see an extended period of time with world oil prices below $45, because OPEC will have to take action at that point to prop up prices as the cartel did in 2016 

It would be interesting to see some analysis of this. It's hard to believe that the breakeven price for Aramco is $45/bbl when all these years we've been told lifting costs for Saudi Arabia have been around $10/bbl. Something tells me there may be more to this story. As a starting point, does the $45/bbl breakeven cost include the "taxes" the company must pay to the government?

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M*A*S*H Theme Song

Texas Tech Wil Play For The Championship -- Having Trounced Top-Seeded Michigan State -- That Is All -- April 7, 2019 -- Oh, Yes, And A Tesla Re-Posting

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

This deserves to be re-posted:

Tesla: from SeekingAlpha this morning -- (archived) --

• Tesla is moving from a supply constrained into a demand constrained market for the Model 3.
• The North American backlog for the higher priced variants was exhausted in Q4 of 2018.
• Since then, Tesla has been able to pull other demand levers such as the MR, the EU, and China backlog and the SR variant.
• However, these are creating only short-term pockets of demand, the question of whether there is enough sustained demand for 7,000 or even 5,000/week production remains unanswered.

Tesla: After posting the above, a reader sent me a link to a podcast from the Montana Skeptic re: Tesla. One must absolutely listen to this podcast. The SeekingAlpha link above dovetails perfectly with this podcast at ZeroHedge. 

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The Book Page

One of my favorite books, on my "top shelf": The Mistaken Extinction: Dinosaur Evolution and the Origin of Birds, Lowell Dingus and Timothy Rowe, c. 1998.

With all the current excitement coming out of Bowman, ND, and the Hell Creek Formation this past week, I thought it best to pull it down and review some sections.

In cartoon drawings of evolution, of our ancestors migrating from the ocean to land, we always see a linear progression: fish to amphibians to reptiles to mammals to man.

It was not linear and amphibians are not on the line between fish and reptiles.

There were at least four challenges moving from the sea to land:

• respiration: obvious
• locomotion: on which almost "everyone" seems to focus
• reproduction: the need to keep eggs moist or viable, either internally or externally
• predation: eat or be eaten

The problem of reproduction, how to keep eggs moist or viable, either internally or externally, was "solved" two different ways. Amphibians had one solution; non-amphibians had another solution. Non-amphibians were called amniotes; amniote embryos, whether laid as eggs or carried by the female, are protected and aided by several extensive membranes.

So, that's one "biggie." Solving the "egg" problem two different ways: the amphibians did it one way and the amniotes did it a different way. We did not evolve from amphibians but amphibians and amniotes evolved from a common tetrapod ancestor. 

 The amniotes comprised at least five groups, some extinct, some still living: "reptilia" and mammals. "Reptilia" is sort of a grab-bag grouping of any tetrapod that is not amphibian or mammal. 

I think it's easy for youngsters to "define" and give examples of amphibians and mammals. It is much more difficult to "define" reptiles, though it's easy to come up with examples.

After much difficulty trying to define "reptilia" by what they are, I finally gave up and, instead, defined them by what they are not. "Reptilia" are tetrapods that are neither amphibians nor mammals. And if one doesn't know what a tetrapod is, then "reptiles" are "animals" (in the sense that most five-year-olds define animals) that are not fish, amphibians or mammals. 

Predation: one of the big differences between fish and tetrapods that evolved into reptiles -- "the earliest amniotes have the beginnings of a sophisticated joint between the head and neck, enabling the head to bend and twist form side to side, and to take items from the ground." -- Dingus and Rowe, p. 155. It is interesting to note that frogs, the quintessential (?) amphibian, have no neck, so they cannot turn their head. Only one species of frog has teeth in its lower and upper jaws.

Of the reptilia, we know that birds are warm-blooded. Dinosaurs? Apparently the jury is still out on this one, but the evidence seems to be accumulating that at least some (all?) were warm-blooded. 

If so, the quality of warm-bloodedness is an example of convergent evolution, or saying it another way: warm-bloodedness evolved independently at least twice. (Another example is the eye: the eye in the octopus evolved independently from the eye in tetrapods.)

From Dingus and Rowe, page 156: "Large brains and endothermy are points of resemblance between birds and mammals that evolved convergently within different hierarchies of amniote phylogeny."

****************************

Egg-Laying Mammals

Later, while trying to sort out the last common ancestor before branching off to amphibians and mammals, I pictured that the missing link must be an egg-laying tetrapod. I'm sure there are many scientific articles on this but I'm still looking. One possibility: the egg-laying tetrapod laid eggs on the ground (or in a tree, etc) but those terrestrial eggs were subject to terrestrial predators. Could it be possible that the amphibians were siblings of egg-laying reptile-like mammals but evaded predators on land by returning to the water. 

This is the theory regarding the platypus, the marsupial, and the placental. All three had a common ancestor but the platypus "broke away" long before the marsupial and the placental separated. The last common ancestor lived on land, but the platypus returned to the water to escape land-based predators.

Wow, This Gets Tedious -- But Someone Has To Do It -- April 7, 2019

Let's see. Is Easter just around the corner?

I'm trying to recall how often we experienced snow/blizzards in Williston at Easter when I was growing up.

Never.

Just joking. I'm sure it happened frequently. I just don't recall any that stood out.

But now, with just twelve years before the end of the earth due to anthropogenic global warming, expect blizzards in the heartland, from iceage now:

Accuweather meteorologists warn of possible heavy snow and damaging winds, even blizzard conditions, from southeastern Montana to Colorado from Tuesday into Wednesday.

They warn that snowfall could “reach or exceed a foot across either the northern or central Plains, depending on the track of the storm.” Snow may also streak along a narrow swath into the Great Lakes, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins. The storm “is likely to cause severe travel problems in the heartland.”

No mountains in southeastern Montana as far as I know so I suppose we're not talking about high elevation snowstorms.

Wow, it's taking forever for this year's winter to end. Didn't "P. Phil" tell us winter was over months ago? Back in February?

And that was as good a reason as any to stop Amazon from building HQ2 in Long Island City, along with 25,000 jobs, and billions in revenue.

Easter:

• go back to the spring equinox
• wait for the first full moon following the spring equinox
• then, Easter, will be the first Sunday after that first full moon after the spring equinox. Easy-peasy
• is that correct; doing that from memory just for the fun of it

A Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 7, 2019

The well:

• 31500, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA , Charlson, no production data, 

The graphic:

The wells in the graphic (to be completed later):

16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson; Three Forks, 640 acres; no frack data; t7/07; cum 642K 2/19; no jump in production; not taken off line; "targeted the fractured porosity of the Three Forks twenty feet below the base of the lower Bakken shale; a connection gas of 10,000 units at 10,726 feet, maxing out the Pason Gas Detector; a 35-foot flare;

16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, Three Forks, 640 acres (short lateral) no frack data, t10/06; cum 1.715 million bbls 2/19; no jump in production; not taken off line;


16693, 300, t8/08; cum 59K 2/19; off line as of 2/19; lousy well;


16941, 360, t1/09; cum 71K 2/19; not taken off line; lousy well;


17050, 391, t3/09; cum 180K 2/19;

31497,
31498,
31500, see above;

31491,
31490,
20355, 1,127, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1A-7-2H, Charlson, t2/13; cum 158K 2/19; not taken off line; no jump in production;
31492,

Initial Production Data For Selected Wells Coming Off The Confidential Well This Next Week -- April 7, 2019

Initial production numbers from selected wells coming off the confidential list this next week. The full list of wells coming off the confidential list this week can be found here. 

35036, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1TFH,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	11620	8803
1-2019	15460	12746
12-2018	18044	17202
11-2018	18548	20765
10-2018	10907	10425

34501, conf, EOG, Austin 74-1929H, Parshall,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	10344	229
1-2019	11258	13
12-2018	5670	0
11-2018	14683	3201
10-2018	9226	2402

30744, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5501 14-4 8BX, Tyrone, just north of Williston,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	11808	8174
1-2019	17744	14337
12-2018	18578	12495
11-2018	18970	14014
10-2018	13564	9431

34810, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 1TFH, Epping,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	25620	0
1-2019	37942	38738
12-2018	48540	51651
11-2018	27923	15248

34809, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 2H, Epping,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	17139	0
1-2019	25373	29406
12-2018	37878	36787
11-2018	24444	12352

34808, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 3TFH, Epping,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	9635	0
1-2019	21069	26410
12-2018	26424	28080
11-2018	28378	21987

34807, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 4H, Epping,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	24010	0
1-2019	33074	37280
12-2018	38499	38076
11-2018	40581	25500

34806, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 5TFH, Epping, just northeast of Williston --

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	14079	0
1-2019	22014	27074
12-2018	32846	34310
11-2018	28697	20118

30006, conf, Oasis, Harbour 5501 14-4 7B, Tyrone, just north of Williston --

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2019	12781	6513
1-2019	19357	13425
12-2018	21297	17056
11-2018	13264	9768
10-2018	10578	8852

The Excitement Of Pad Drilling -- Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 7, 2019

My favorite part of the week: looking at the wells coming off the confidential list. Here are those wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

Monday, April 15, 2019 -- memo to self -- IRS filing deadline: 55 wells for the month; 55 wells for the quarter
34315, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23F,
30860, conf, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW,

Sunday, April 14, 2019: 53 wells for the month; 53 wells for the quarter
35036, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1TFH, White Earth, a nice well; 
34985, conf, XTO, Roxy 21X-6EXH, West Capa, , no production data,
34501, conf, EOG, Austin 74-1929H, Parshall, producing,
34316, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23G, North Fork, no production data,
33688, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 2-19-18-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
32929, conf, Sinclair Oil, Sinclair State 7-36H, Robinson Lake, no production data,

Saturday, April 13, 2019: 47 wells for the month; 47 wells for the quarter
34986, conf, XTO, Roxy 21X-6AXD, West Capa, no production data,
34317, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23D, North Fork, no production data,
33937, conf, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal, no production data,
33687, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 2-30-31-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
31500, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-7H, Charlson, no production data,
30744, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5501 14-4 8BX, Tyrone, a nice well;

Friday, April 12, 2019 -- we missed "Fridaythethirteenth" by one day; out-of-town guests arrive: 41 wells for the month; 41 wells for the quarter
35270, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase 1TFH, Spotted Horn, no production data,
34810, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 1TFH, Epping, a nice well;
34809, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 2H, Epping, a nice well;
34808, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 3TFH, Epping, a nice well;
34807, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 4H, Epping, a nice well;
34806, conf, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 5TFH, Epping, a nice well;
34318, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23H, North Fork, no production data,
33686, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 6-19-18-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Thursday, April 11, 2019: 33 wells for the month; 33 wells for the quarter
33685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 6-30-31-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
30006, conf, Oasis, Harbour 5501 14-4 7B,  Tyrone, producing, 

Wednesday, April 10, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 31 wells for the quarter
33684, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 3-19-18-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
33683, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 3-30-31-157-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Tuesday, April 9, 2019: 29 wells for the month; 29 wells for the quarter
33682, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 7-19-18-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,3
35215, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5EXH, Haystack Butte, no production data,

Monday April 8, 2019: 27 wells for the month; 27 wells for the quarter
35216, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, no production data, 
33681, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 7-30-31-157N-99W TFH,  Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Sunday, April 7, 2019: 25 wells for the month; 25 wells for the quarter
30933, conf, Armstrong Operating, Pederson 33-3, Hamlet,, no production data, 

Saturday, April 6, 2019: 24 wells for the month; 24 wells for the quarter
35217, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, North Fork, no production data, 
34999, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jaeger State 2-34-26H-144-97L, Cabernet, producing, 
34620, conf, Enerplus Camelia 148-94-16CH, Eagle Nest, producing, 
33665, conf, MRO, Wilkinson USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, producing, 

Dinosaurs -- A Reader Writes -- April 7, 2019

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. It will be difficult to separate my thoughts/comments from those of others.

Before I get started, I thought the science was settled, that the dinosaurs died off suddenly and catastrophically, but apparently that it still being highly debated. Not everyone agrees. That's why all the recent excitement coming out of Bowman, ND. And then I thought: oh, yes, that's correct: the only really "settled science" is anthropogenic global warming and we have only twelve years left." 

Again, I thought the science was settled about the demise of the dinosaurs. That's why the recent New Yorker article did not particularly excite me until I started paying attention.

So, here goes.

The #1 post trending on this blog, "The Million Dollar Way," is the post about the recent dinosaur excitement in North Dakota.

I've posted a number of notes about the story. One reader has spent considerable time in the Hell Creek formation as a volunteer working for one (or more?) paleontologists. He wrote me and I paraphrased in some cases, hoping I did not mis-quote / mis-state what he was saying. In addition, I've interspersed my own comments, but I think we are on the same page:

Among researchers, the "jealousy is terrible," the competition is fierce; "publish or perish" is not a trivial issue. Among all branches of science, paleontology may be one of the most competitive: the rewards can be huge -- after twenty years of digging a paleontologist could be an overnight-millionaire if he/she discovers an intact, huge T rex to be sold for top dollar.

The whole "field work" process is incredibly inefficient: sites are remote, just to get to nearest airfield; and then a couple of days drying to the site; thunderstorms make the off-roading impossible; and, then, short digging season in states like Montana, and the Dakotas.

Access is incredibly challenging: there's a reason ranchers and farmers in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota live there and have decided to stay -- they don't like to be bothered by humanity (don't take that out of context).

The reader was particularly "proud" (I'm using that word, not the reader) that as a volunteer, non-professional he and his wife found a site -- now named after them -- that contains Peurcan I (Paleocene) mammal fossil teeth right down almost to the K/T boundary.

To get a feeling of the importance of this finding wade through this pdf:

https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D85D9256/download

In that very long, exceedingly difficult article for a novice to read, "Peurcan" is mentioned twice, both on the same page. Do a google search and see how difficult it is to find anything regarding this term.

In that 2012 article, the researchers discuss the demise of the dinosaurs at the K/T boundary, and state, on page 149 of that article, that some researchers have "concluded that the terminal Cretaceous (K) extinctions were gradual and may have occurred over a period of time ranging from several years to hundreds of thousands of years." [That's why the article in The New Yorker is so incredibly fascinating and has gained so much interest. Those who accept the catastrophic, sudden demise of dinosaurs are looking for the "smoking gun" and think they have found it in Bowman, ND.]

The reader noted that the mammals he and his wife discovered were not even "supposed to be in North Dakota at this time. Instead they were limited to sites found in southern New Mexico."

The reader noted that they had "no research money" because "no prospective donor had any reason to believe there was anything there." Again, that takes me back to my original comment that this reminds me of Harold Hamm and the Bakken.

The reader says that the discovery of this particular site was based on the fossil remains of large terrestrial turtles. The mammalian fossils showed up when the reader and his wife were screen-washing the matrix in a controlled fashion all the way down to the K/T boundary. With the help of other volunteers and students/faculty from several field schools, they washed over 2,400 lbs (more than a ton) of matrix.

Prior to this time, the state of North Dakota has one (1) Peurcan mammal fossil in its entire fossil collection; by last year, the reader's small group of "diggers" had found 178 Peurcan mammal fossils.

Apparently folks thought this site was all an anomaly. The reader -- and I can almost see him rolling his eyes -- took a short walk -- two miles to the southeast of the original site and found a similar outpouring of Peurcan fossils.

Two other links, wiki:

• the evolution of mammals:
• therapsids

Other links:

• placental mammal diversification and the C-T boundary; 2003
• mass extinction of birds at the K-Pg boundary, 2011 
• The effect of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) (formerly Cretaceous–Tertiary, K–T) mass extinction on avian evolution is debated, primarily because of the poor fossil record of Late Cretaceous birds. In particular, it remains unclear whether archaic birds became extinct gradually over the course of the Cretaceous or whether they remained diverse up to the end of the Cretaceous and perished in the K–Pg mass extinction. 
• mammalian distal humerus fossils from eastern Montana with implications for the C-Pg mass extinction and adaptive radiation of placentals; link here; 
• much easier to read, "Crossing the Boundary," Chapter 15, The Mistaken Extinction, Lowell Dingus and Timothy Rowe, 1998, link here;  [I have this book on my "top shelf"]

I think it's a fascinating story. Part of the reason for sharing all this: I hope the reader has a scrapbook of all this to pass down to his great-grandchildren.

The other reason for writing all this: it helps me understand better what's going on so Sophia and I have something to discuss when I drive her to TutorTime.

Random Look At GDP -- April 7, 2019

In all the years I've been blogging about the Bakken, I don't think I've spent much time on the GDP of North Dakota.

Some links and data points (some figures rounded):

• February 26, 2019, 3Q18, North Dakota GDP, FRED: $56 billion 
• recent low: $51 billion, 1Q16
• recent high: $60 billion 4Q14
• ND economy barely affected by recession, 2007 - 2009 timeframe
• Bakken hits its stride, 2012, GDP of $53 billion, 4Q12
• 2Q09: a GDP of only $31 billion
• so, in round numbers, 30-second sound bite
• ND GDP with the Bakken: $50 billion - $60 billion
• ND GDP before the Bakken: $25 billion - $30 billion
• ND GPD as percentage of the US GDP: 
• ND ranks number 46 or thereabouts
• ND GDP represents 0.29% of US GDP
• South Dakota GDP, February 26, 2019, FRED, 3Q18: $52 billion
• even without oil, SD GDP almost matches that of North Dakota
• I never would have guessed
• steady, almost predictable growth since 2009
• Same period, same source: FRED, 3Q18 (again, rounded)
• MN: $370 billion
• MT: $50 billion
• IA: $190 billion
• CA: $3 trillion; the growth since 2009 really has been spectacular; the first trillion is always the hardest
• TX: $1.8 trillion
• NY: $1.7 trillion
• FL: $1 trillion

US GDP: link here (same source), $21 trillion

Comments regarding changes in GDP:

• of the few states at which I looked, ND has had some of the greatest swings in GDP rate of growth (up or down)
• perhaps the only other state with such wide swings: Oklahoma
• the other major "oil" state Louisiana has wide swings
• another state with wide swings: NM
• a state hit particularly hard by the 2007 - 2009 recession, Wyoming, has not recovered;
• Colorado has had a spectacular rise in GDP since 2009; minimally affected by the 2007 - 2009 recession; it will be interesting to check Colorado's change in GDP now that the oil industry is dead
• CT shows signs of vibrant life since 2016; very, very interesting
• MI: doing very, very well; things looked a little dicey in 2016, but after 2016, took a huge move to the upside