Monday, July 3, 2023

Dylan Mulvaney At Texas A&M? July 3, 2023

Locator: 45886TRACKANDFIELD. 

I'm still reviewing this video to verify it's accuracy.

Blogging may be delayed a few minutes.

I believe the video shows four races. The last heat/race is most amazing.

Texas A&M.

An engineering school.

Whatever their admissions criteria, Harvard could learn something.

Wind -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45885WIND.   

This is an interesting issue: usually with anything new, that succeeds, there are the "early adopters" and them sometime later, that "new" thing becomes mainstream. There's a tipping point.

One almost gets the feeling with regard to renewable energy, specifically, wind and solar, not only have we not reached that tipping point, but "things" appears to suggest "we" are moving backwrds, we may be moving away from renewable energy as we get to know it better.

Exhibit A.  

The concern here is that "pushback" may be part of a much wider issue.

From the link:


Generally speaking, technology "moves things forward." It is not typical for technology to "fall back" but it appears wind energy / wind turbines may be an exception.

Time will tell.

Demographics Revisited -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45884DEMOG.    

Link here.

Original post.

Three Permits Renewed — Middle Of Driving Season And WTI < $70 -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45883B.   

WTI: $69.79

Three permits renewed:

  • Whiting: three Link permits, Foreman Butte, McKenzie County;
**********
?

The bulls keep telling us that the fundamentals suggest WTI should be much higher. 

I’m beginning to wonder if the “fundamentals” are wrong?

Again, as I’ve argued since 2007, one can’t use conventional yardsticks when measuring unconventional / tight / shale.

If nothing else, look at the “efficiency” of rigs in unconventional / tight / shale plays. 

Rig counts don’t matter. Don’t take that out of context. Been saying that since 2007.

A Non-Musical Musical Interlude -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45882RUSSIA. 

There are reports that "some Russians" were sent $6 billion by the US / CIA as a special type of "GoFundMe" request to help make this happen (see below). It appeared neither Vladimir nor General Prigozhin were able to get this ball rolling without some outside funding.

There are rumors that some folks in Washington, DC, did not support this but the president stepped in and said, "Let It Be." 

So, with a "Little Help From Their Friends" in the CIA (?), the Russians "forced" a merger. 

And that, boys and girls, is how Big Finance does things.

Tomorrow: how to use a viral pandemic to "GoFundMe" to keep the US bull market going for the Big Banks on Wall Street. Spoiler alert -- it ensured the banks would "pass" the stress test so the banks could reward their shareholders with big dividend increases. ABBA helps explain it with "Gimme Gimme Gimme" and "The Winner Takes It All." 

"Money, Money, Money."

Wednesday: George Harrison, and "Taxman."

Re-posting:

*********************************
Meanwhile Putin Takes Charge:
A Corporate Takeover Of Wagner

Link to The WSJ

The story begins:

In the wake of a mutiny that almost reached Moscow, Vladimir Putin is facing a new test—managing one of the most complex corporate takeovers in history.
Inside the Wagner Group’s sealed-off glass tower headquarters in St. Petersburg, agents from the Federal Security Services, or FSB, have been scouring the offices for evidence against Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief who led last month’s insurrection.
New Kremlin-backed military contractors are launching recruiting drives on Russian social-media networks with recruitment ads to poach some of Wagner’s 30,000 mercenaries, hackers and moneymen, whom the longtime ally of President Putin deployed to Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa.
Across St. Petersburg, Russian law enforcement took computers and servers at Prigozhin’s Patriot Media Group, a key piece of a communication empire that once included the Internet Research Agency, the social-media organization that pumped millions of pro-Kremlin messages onto social-media channels and caused mayhem in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, according to staff and text messages reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. A likely new owner of Patriot Media, the messages say, is National Media Group, chaired by Alina Kabaeva, the Washington-sanctioned rhythm gymnast the U.S. government believes to be the mother of at least three of Putin’s children.

Does This Look Like A Recession? July 3, 2023

Locator: 45881ECON.  

The results are not all in yet, but ... does this look like we're in a "mild recession" (Charlie Munger) or a pre-recession? Asking for Alexa.

Re-posting.

Locator: 45874AUTO.

*************************
Stellantis 

Pricing, link here:

Link here.

Higher sales of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan and Jeep Compass and Dodge Durango SUVs pushed Stellantis’ second-quarter U.S. new vehicle sales up 6.4% from a year earlier. The uptick is another sign of demand for new vehicles rebounding, as inventories of cars and trucks improve from historically low levels during the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain problems. [Those in bold are high-end models.]

Stellantis’ sales increase is expected to be among the lowest of the second quarter, according to auto industry forecasters who project industry sales to have increased 16% to 18% during that time compared with a year earlier.

*************************
Rivian

RIVN: shares surges 2Q23 sales come in better than forecast.


*********************************************
American Legacy: Ford vs Chevy

Ford vs Chevy, 1Q23
: link here.

  • y/y -- cars sold:
    • Chevy: up 16%
    • Ford: up 11%
    • Tesla: up 83%
  • total vehicles sold in 1Q23:
    • Chevy: 398,141
    • Ford: 456,972
    • Tesla: 422,900 (in 2Q23: 466,140)

All car sales here: link here.

Tesla: update here.

Market:

  • Tesla: $820 billion
  • Ford: $60 billion, pays 4%
  • GMC: $53 billion, pays 1%

*********************************
More, pending.

Forbes, US auto sales will likely gain in June, 2023, on bigger inventory, pent-up demand.

  • the large sales increase vs. a year ago is due to pent-up consumer demand, a modest return to incentives, and a bigger inventory of new cars and trucks, as the auto industry gradually recovers from a shortage of computer chips
  • this is why JPow raising rates will make things worse:
  • S&P Global Mobility predicts new, light-vehicle sales volume in June to reach 1.38 million units. That would be an increase of 17% compared with June 2022. For the second quarter, its forecast is about 4.1 million units, up 16.5%. For the first half, that would mean sales of 7.7 million, up about 12%. 
  • Edmunds had a similar estimate for the second quarter of about 4 million, up 16.1%. 
  • automakers in the U.S. market report quarterly sales on Wednesday, July 5.

************************
Sell In May, Go Away

So, What Do I Call This Post? July 3, 2023

Locator: 45880B. 

June 18, 2023, was my "storied" post for Tesla. One of my best "calls" ever. LOL. 

On Friday, June 16, 2023, TSLA was trading at $260 / share.

Today: at $280, up $18 today; up 7%. 

Six months ago, January 3, 2023: $110 -- just saying. 

I'm not  even going to look at NVDA.

*****************************
The Book Page

Cells To Civilizations: The Principles of Change that Shape Life, Enrico Coen, c. 2012. 576.8COE.

Notes.

I think about these things a lot.

One: those little roly-poly bugs you see every summer in the cool recesses of your home -- they have the same DNA material, the same genetic material that started it all more than 3.5 billion years ago.

Two: Mars and Venus keep showing up, right on schedule, night after night after night, for billions of years. 

Three: how tricky it is for modern civilizations -- which took thousands of years to evolve -- to not slip into chaos. 

Four: France.

GDPNow -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45879ECON. 

Link here.

**************************
The Book Page

Queen Isabella: Treachery, Adultery, And Murder In Medieval England, Alison Weir, c. 2005. BISA. [Biography: ISA].

Notes

Newgate Street, London.

Ruins of Christ Church (WWII blitz); the site of Christ's Hospital, the Blue Coat School founded by Edward VI in the 16th century; destroyed during the Great Fire of 1666, and rebuilt by Christopher Wren.

From wiki

Christ Church Greyfriars, also known as Christ Church Newgate Street, was a church in Newgate Street, opposite St Paul's Cathedral in the City of London. 

Established as a monastic church in the thirteenth century, it became a parish church after the Dissolution of the Monasteries. Following its destruction in the Great Fire of London of 1666, it was rebuilt to the designs of Sir Christopher Wren. Except for the tower, the church was largely destroyed by bombing during the Second World War. The decision was made not to rebuild the church; the ruins are now a public garden. Steeple finished in 1704.

This church was originally built in 1225; later endowed and reconstructed through the generosity off pious medieval queens; 14th century, the royal mausoleum rivaled Westminster Abbey as the resting place of crowned heads. The splendors long gone, disappeared after Henry VIII dissolved the monastery in 1538, during the Reformation.

One of those buried in Greyfriars Church at Newgate, and whose tomb was lost, was Isabella of France, Edward II's queen, one off the most notorious femmes fatales in history.

One of her favored residences: Castle Rising in Norfolk.

Followed elsewhere; see link above.


Hydrogen Generation -- Reality Sucks -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45878H2. 

Hydrogen is tracked here.

July 3, 2023: hydrogen energy requires a lot of .... water. And the sites around the world being proposed for hydrogen generation don't have a lot of ... water. Link here.

*********************
The Book Today

Sophia Tolstoy: A Biography, Alexandra Popff, c. 2010.

Notes.

The Plane That The Wagner Group Brought Down That Caused All The Fuss -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45877UKRAINE. 

Old news: Wagner Group shoots down Putin's vaunted AWACS plane, the IL-22M.

The Russian IL-18.

This is what caused all the fuss:

In its move to advance north of Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow Saturday, Wagner forces shot down a "high value" Russian IL-22M airborne command post aircraft outside the town of Bugaevka, killing its crew and destroying one of the 12 "special mission aircraft."

From wiki, the Russian IL-22. The Russian inventory: 12. The number that are operational: unknown. The number that can actually fly: unknown.



From wiki, the Russian IL-18:

Other sources:

  • Aviation Week:
  • EurAsian: within their inventory, the crew would have been among the best, the most experienced:

*********************************
Meanwhile Putin Takes Charge:
A Corporate Takeover Of Wagner

Link to The WSJ

The story begins:

In the wake of a mutiny that almost reached Moscow, Vladimir Putin is facing a new test—managing one of the most complex corporate takeovers in history.
Inside the Wagner Group’s sealed-off glass tower headquarters in St. Petersburg, agents from the Federal Security Services, or FSB, have been scouring the offices for evidence against Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief who led last month’s insurrection.
New Kremlin-backed military contractors are launching recruiting drives on Russian social-media networks with recruitment ads to poach some of Wagner’s 30,000 mercenaries, hackers and moneymen, whom the longtime ally of President Putin deployed to Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa.
Across St. Petersburg, Russian law enforcement took computers and servers at Prigozhin’s Patriot Media Group, a key piece of a communication empire that once included the Internet Research Agency, the social-media organization that pumped millions of pro-Kremlin messages onto social-media channels and caused mayhem in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, according to staff and text messages reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. A likely new owner of Patriot Media, the messages say, is National Media Group, chaired by Alina Kabaeva, the Washington-sanctioned rhythm gymnast the U.S. government believes to be the mother of at least three of Putin’s children.

NVDA -- Again -- This Is Not An Investing Site -- Helps Me Follow Technology -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45876INV.

Link here.

Re-posting:

Locator: 44844ECON. 

Locator: 44746INV.
Locator: 44746CHIPS.  

Updates  

June 7, 2023:

Later, 9:17 p.m. CT: others think differently — https://twitter.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/1661490357043884033.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here. Note the margins.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here.

Later, 6:08 p.m. CT: link here.

Original Post

Shares up almost 10% after-hours; up $35; trading at $338.

Numbers exciting;

  • EPS: $1.09 vs $0.92. Whisper numbers: 97 cents.Revenues: $7.19 billion vs 6.52
  • Gross margins: 70% vs 64 - 68%.
  • Forecasts 2Q23 revenue significantly above estimates.

Later: shares now up about 14%.

All-time highs.

Trending toward being up 15%. 

Others:

  • AMD: up $6.
  • TSM: up $4 after hours.

NVDA:


And, oh, by the way, WTI settles above $74.

Now, 3:32 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up almost $50 / share
  • up almost 16%
  • all-time high
  • Jim Cramer needs to do a victory lap (or two or three)

Now, 3:34 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up $51 / share; up 17% after hours;

"Starting to lift the other boats."

At 3:36 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up $57 / share; up 19%;

Market cap bigger than BRK.

NVDA: flash -- for a moment -- up over 20%.

Meanwhile:

  • DIS: down for the day
  • TSLA: down for the day
  • OXY: down for the day
  • QCOM: down for the day
  • Snowflake: plummets -- this was Warren Buffett's tech pick.

You can lead horses to water ....

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

This is how it will end for the after-market today, NVDA:

  • up 20%; up $60 /share
  • market cap: $902 billion 

Only one question: how did Warren miss this one?  

  • He picked Snowflake (SNOW plummets today) and bought/sold TSM when he got "cold feet" -- "denying" his own adage, "be greedy when others are fearful."
  • or maybe not, was he "fearful when others were greedy?"

After earnings release, The WSJ:

And, if you read the article, one will see how some big challenges slowed Nvidia down this last quarter, most of which will be resolved going forward.

GDPNow -- June 30, 2023

Locator: 45875ECON.

Link here.

Car Talk -- Does This Look Like A Recession To You? June, 2023

Locator: 45874AUTO.

UPDATES

*********************
GM

Since the original post from a couple of days ago,  social media is providing a bit of granularity.

The links:

*************************
Stellantis 

Link here.

Higher sales of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan and Jeep Compass and Dodge Durango SUVs pushed Stellantis’ second-quarter U.S. new vehicle sales up 6.4% from a year earlier. The uptick is another sign of demand for new vehicles rebounding, as inventories of cars and trucks improve from historically low levels during the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain problems. [Those in bold are high-end models.]

Stellantis’ sales increase is expected to be among the lowest of the second quarter, according to auto industry forecasters who project industry sales to have increased 16% to 18% during that time compared with a year earlier.

*************************
Rivian

RIVN: shares surges 2Q23 sales come in better than forecast.


ORIGINAL POST
 
*********************************************
American Legacy: Ford vs Chevy

Ford vs Chevy, 1Q23
: link here.

  • y/y -- cars sold:
    • Chevy: up 16%
    • Ford: up 11%
    • Tesla: up 83%
  • total vehicles sold in 1Q23:
    • Chevy: 398,141
    • Ford: 456,972
    • Tesla: 422,900 (in 2Q23: 466,140)

Market:

  • Tesla: $820 billion
  • Ford: $60 billion, pays 4%
  • GMC: $53 billion, pays 1%

All car sales here: link here.

*******************************
Tesla

Tesla: update here.

China: Tesla production jumps 20%. Link here.

 

*********************************
More, pending.

Forbes, US auto sales will likely gain in June, 2023, on bigger inventory, pent-up demand.

  • the large sales increase vs. a year ago is due to pent-up consumer demand, a modest return to incentives, and a bigger inventory of new cars and trucks, as the auto industry gradually recovers from a shortage of computer chips
  • this is why JPow raising rates will make things worse:
  • S&P Global Mobility predicts new, light-vehicle sales volume in June to reach 1.38 million units. That would be an increase of 17% compared with June 2022. For the second quarter, its forecast is about 4.1 million units, up 16.5%. For the first half, that would mean sales of 7.7 million, up about 12%. 
  • Edmunds had a similar estimate for the second quarter of about 4 million, up 16.1%. 
  • automakers in the U.S. market report quarterly sales on Wednesday, July 5.

Busy, Busy, Monday -- Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today, Weekend -- July 3, 2023

Locator: 45873B.  

Car sales, June, pending.

Wagner Group: where are they?

The Southern Surge: what's happening?

Tech, Nvidia. Again.

Sports over the weekend: NASCAR, PGA. Ricky Fowler wins Rocket Mortgage, how fitting.

Later: a reader wrote to say he/she had not seen any note about NASCAR over the weekend, wondering if he/she had missed a note. My very quick reply:

No, haven't posted anything. May not get to it. NASCAR was a mess over the weekend. As you know. [The reader was from Chicago, where the race was held ... billed as "the Chicago street race."]

Saturday, the "junior" event cut short due rain and decision made later not to finish it on Sunday. Then, the "senior" event, on-again, off-again all Sunday due to rain / flooding -- and finally started late in the day by which time I was celebrating Sophia's birthday.

At least that's what I think happened. By that time I had turned to the PGA and watched Ricky Fowler's "historic" win.

GDPNow: June 30, 2023.

I-LL 22M: Say what? See this.

BUD:

Opera:

Wind: hurting.

Tyson: to remove advertising tagline re: chicken. "No antibiotics ever." No longer true.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.41.

Tuesday, July 4, 2023: 48 for the month; 156 for the quarter, 411 for the year
39438, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12-1H,
39426, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 9-32H1,

Monday, July 3, 2023: 46 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 409 for the year
35680, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-27-34-4MBH,

Sunday, July 2, 2023: 45 for the month; 153 for the quarter, 408 for the year
39425, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 8-32H,
37898, conf, BR, Lillibridge 2A MBH,
35679, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-27-34-3MBH,

Saturday, July 1, 2023: 42 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 405 for the year
39424, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 7-32H1,
35678, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-227-34-2MBH,

RBN Energy: with many steps required, mining projects face trickiest path to approval, part 4.

When it comes to large-scale energy and infrastructure projects, permitting can sometimes look like a game of Whack-a-Mole, where efforts to conclude the process are continually frustrated by issues that appear (and then sometimes reappear again and again), encompassing everything from environmental reviews and the vagaries of different federal agencies to legal challenges and public (and political) opposition. But if the difficulties in building a new pipeline, transmission line, or solar farm seem immense, they pale in comparison to what developers of mining projects can face. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why mining projects take so long to develop, the unique challenges of the permitting process, and some ways that it might be improved.

Permitting for large-scale infrastructure projects can be a complicated, drawn-out process that is often easier said than done. The permitting process can drag on for years — such as with Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the poster child for today’s permitting challenges — and prevent some from ever becoming a reality. As an example of how long the process can take, the TransWest Express Transmission Project, which will move 3,000 megawatts (MW) of Wyoming’s wind-generated electricity to utilities in more densely populated regions of the Desert Southwest. Even though it’s a straightforward idea, the project didn’t receive final federal approval until April — 18 years after it was first proposed — and serves as a prime example of how long the permitting process can take. New transmission lines are critically important for the development of wind- and solar-powered generation, which are increasingly running into more permitting issues at the local level as they grow in scale and move closer to populated areas.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 2, 2023

Locator: 45872B.  

The wells:

  • 39395, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 2-29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL, Church, no production data,
  • 38683, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513HH-4, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20233126560508
3-20231631028726
2-20232536162399
1-20233512171572
  • 37404, conf, Liberty Resources, Esther 158-93-28-33-20MBH, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231551821499
3-20231805521590
2-20231900420131
1-20231692718490
  • 37364, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson 158-93-27-34-1MBH, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231574119469
3-20232186324877
2-20231616919505
1-20231763121239
  • 39175, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data.
  • 38944, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-32-29H, Sather Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231469313803
3-20231576914520
2-2023173290
1-20231028211164
  • 39442, conf,  Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 5H, Burg, no production data,
  • 39176, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data.
  • 39441, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 4H, Burg, no production data,
  • 39178, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H, Dollar Joe, no production data.
  • 39440, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 3TFH, Burg, no production data,
  • 36567, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 13-18-17-16HU, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 39439, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12-2H, Burg, no production data,
  • 36568, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 13-18-16H3A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 39438, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12-1H, Burg, no production data,
  • 39426, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 9-32H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 35680, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-27-34-4MBH, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231996222304
3-20231780818640
2-20232404825694
1-20233517138247
  • 39425, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 8-32H, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 37898, conf, BR, Lillibridge 2A MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 35679, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-27-34-3MBH, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231940322178
3-20232121122177
2-20231703617598
1-20233573115820
  • 39424, conf, CLR, Bice Federal 7-32H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 35678, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson E 158-93-227-34-2MBH, Enget Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20231568217937
3-20231741818533
2-20231655719500
1-20233472638211