New York Replaces CO2-Emission-Free Nuclear Energy With ..... Fossil Fuel -- April 27, 2022

From Powerline.

This graph might be a bit hard to understand, but ...

In just two years, the share of electricity provided by nuclear energy dropped about 12%.

To compensate for that loss of nuclear energy, faux environmentalists committed to increasing fossil fuels' share by almost exactly the same amount, 12%.

Wind dropped.

Hydro really dropped. 

And, "other renewables, increased ever so slightly. 

Now all we need is the average price of electricity over the last two years. And the amount of fuel oil being provided by Russia. 

Note: this really speaks volumes about politics, special interest groups, the economics of nuclear energy and the economics of renewable energy, the incredible challenge of -- or should we say "impossibility" of weaning "ourselves" off fossil fuel energy when fossil fuel is still so inexpensive compared to the alternatives, and, of course, we can't forget NIMBY when we talk about renewable energy. 

****************************
The Book Page

For the archives.

The books I am reading. 

A couple of these are brand new, reading for the first time, a couple relatively brand new but already reading for the second time. One is very, very old, reading for the third or fourth time.

The Battle for New York: The city at thee Heart of the American Revolution, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002. I've blogged about this book before. I am reading the book mostly to better understand the geography of this part of the country. 

The Rings of Saturn, W. G. Seebald, c. 1995. I recently blogged about this one. I just finished it, and enjoyed it so much, will start reading it all over again. I simply enjoy the writing. It's hard to believe but there's an entire blog devoted to studying W. G. Sebald.

Speak, Silence: In Search of W. G. Sebald, c. 2021. "The" biography of the author of The Ring of Saturn. I have started it but it's long, will be tough to slog through, it's not one of the better biographies I've read, at least so far. 

How The Mountains Grew: A New Geological History of North America, John Dvorak, c. 2021. Bought it "unseen" after reading a review in The WSJ. I've blogged about this one also.

The Last Days of the Dinosaurs: An Asteroid, Extinction, and the Beginning of Our World, Riley Black, c. 2022.  Released yesterday, April 26, 2022; I've just started it. Pop science. Light reading, fun, relaxing. A review over at MacMillan.

Hell's Angels, Hunter S Thompson, c. 1999. Have read several times. Brings back great memories. Not sure if I'm going to enjoy it as much as I've enjoyed it in the past. I enjoy the writing; I don't enjoy the subject any more. But provides a nice look at the 1960's, California, San Francisco. 

*************************
The Movie Page

One thing led to another and before knew it, I was reading the wiki entry for the book / movie, Farewell, My Lovely. I tried locating it on Hulu but it was not available. I believe it aired on TCM within the last month or so, so I thought I would have to wait to see it.

And, then, I thought of YouTube, and there it is. The full movie. Who would have thought. See you tomorrow; I have a movie to catch.

*****************************
Sophia -- Pick-Up Soccer

Sophia started playing soccer about three years ago, about age four. Unfortunately Covid-19 interrupted that. But she and I continued to practice. She also practiced a bit with her older sister who plays on the high school varsity team, and who played on the high school team that took "second in state" this past year (2022).

The other day, at a local park, she had a little fun, re-visiting those days. Considering she has not practiced in a long time, I was impressed with her foot work. Also, for those who follow soccer, might see her "presence" on the field as she moves to the guard the goal, early in the video. She picked this up from her older sister.

Enerplus With Four New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed; EOG Cancels Seven Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- April 27, 2022

Putin's War: Washington approves more US LNG exports for Europe. 

Gasoline demand, link here. To meet / exceed June, 2021, numbers, gasoline demand is going to have to jump about one million bpd.

Earnings released today, of interest:

• AMGN (after market close: forecast; $4.15)
• beat on both top and bottom line
• EPS: reported $4.25 vs $4.13 forecast
• revenue: reported $6.24 billion vs $6.11 forecast
  
• AR (Antero Resources) (forecast: $1.12)
• a loss of 50 cents / diluted share compared to a loss of 5 cents per prior year period
• net income: $1.15 per diluted share compared to 62 cents per diluted share in prior period
  
• Boeing (forecast: -27 cents); stock fell 5% yesterday; today, pre-market today, down 3%;
• EPS: miss; holy mackerel; reported, -$2.75 vs -25 cents; surprise: -1,022%
• revenue: miss; reported $13.99 billion vs expected $15.9 billion; surprise: -12%
• is pausing 777X production; doesn't expect deliveries until 2025
• ramping up the 737Max to 31 / month in the next quarter
  
• CP (Canadian Pacific)
• NSC (Norfolk Southern Corp) (forecast: $2.92); 
• stock fell 2% yesterday; up 2.7% today; up $6.90; trading at $262.53
  
• HES (before market open; forecast: $1.13)
• EPS: pending
• revenue: a huge 15.6% beat; reported $2.37 billion vs $2.05 billion forecast
  
• QCOM (forecast: $2.91) -- see CNBC.
  
• EPS: $3.21 vs $2.91 expected; up 69% y/y
• revenue: $11.16 billion vs $10.60 billion expected; up 41% y/y
• chip sales, $9.55 billion vs $8.86 expected; up 52% y/y
• guidance slightly higher than forecast
  
• F (Ford) (forecast: 37 cents)
• in-line
• net profit dragged down by its stake in Rivian (EVs)
• Rivian stock lost 52% of its market cap during the first quarter
• Ford's stake: was $10.6 billion; now, $5.1 billion
• adjusted loss:
• excluded that $5.4 billion Rivian loss
• net loss, including Rivian: a loss of $3.1 billion
• adjusted EPS, reported 38 cents vs 37 cents
• revenue, reported $32.1 billion vs $31.13 billion
  

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Shale oil: three US shale producers are raising production: CLR, Hess, Matador. 

Active rigs:

$102.00	4/27/2022	04/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018
Active Rigs	37	16	30	64	62

Four new permits, #38903 - #38906, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County);
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for four MC-Kudrna wells in SWSE 10-144-95; 
• to be sited 222 FSl and between 1525 FEL and 1354 FEL; 

Eleven permits renewed:

• Enerplus (5): four LK-Hamilton permits, and one Madrigal permit, all in Dunn County
• Rimrock (3): three Two Shields butte permits in Dunn County
• Sinclair (3): three Lizzie Rae permits in McKenzie County.

Eight permits canceled:

• EOG (7): five Ross permits and two Burke permits, all in Mountrail County (wow, this has to irritate a number of small mom-and-pop mineral owners.
• Enerplus: one Anole permit in McKenzie County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35754, 2,548, XTO Energy, Tom State 34X-1A, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  

And What Did The Analysis Show? April 27, 2022

From Fox News:

California lawmakers appear unlikely to pause the annual summer increase in the state's gasoline tax ahead of a May 1 deadline, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said on Monday.

The increase will go from 51 cents / gallon to 53.9 cents / gallon.

I was not going to post the story, considering it "not" news on so many levels, but then I read this, a "cut and paste" from the article:

"California already has the nation's highest gas tax at 51 cents per gallon.

The levy will rise to 53.9 cents per gallon at the beginning of July. Still, an analysis from LAO found it would only save drivers about 3 cents per gallon."

"An analysis"? LOL. It was simple arithmetic:

     53.9

    -51.0

        2.9 cents

That would be about right. About 3 cents less if they didn't increase the tax. I can't make this stuff up. No wonder Californians are in trouble.

Two Big Stories In Social Media Today -- April 27, 2022

BRK: Charlie Munger to announce retirement. This will be his last annual meeting. 

Currency:

• Euro collapsing.
• US dollar surging.
• implications:
• smarter folks than I will weigh in on that
• my thoughts? I will keep them to myself
  

By the way:

• back to BRK
• if Charlie Munger announces his retirement, so will his boss

The BRK notes are simply unsourced comments at twitter. We'll see. 

************************
Kenny Rogers

The Gambler, Kenny Rogers

A Historic Day For The US -- Out Of The Pandemic -- Fauci -- April 27, 2022

In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. I often mis-read things. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

As you go through this note, remember: the number of deaths -- from all causes -- increased by 20% year-over-year, 2020 over 2019. I think a lot of folks forget that. For me, I easily could have been a statistic but I had two good years with granddaughter Sophia. My wife with several co-morbidities is also a survivor. 

In round numbers from memory:

• the US generally has about 2.75 million deaths from all causes;
• in 2020, the year of the plague, the number of US deaths from all causes, jumped from 2.75 to 3.4 million deaths:
• roughly 30% of deaths from all causes were due to infectious lung diseases
• back-of-the-napkin:
• (3.4 million - 2.75 million)/2.75 million = 24% jump in all deaths, year-over-year into the plague year; deaths from "usual" causes did not increase
  
• (3.4 million -2.75 million) * 0.30 = 195,000 deaths due to infectious lung diseases and almost none of them bacterial pneumonia, leaving a viral pneumonia
• just think how better off we are with all the anti-viral medications coming available!

Before we begin, this from August, 2021:

Now, fast forward to April 27, 2022. Almost two years to the day since the lock downs began. Very similar to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 - 1920. The pandemic is over for the US: Dr Fauci.

I posted an update earlier this morning with much of the Covid news coming out today. There were several takeaways but I won't repeat them here.

What I find most interesting is looking back on the Covid-19 and "seasonal flu" data compiled by the CDC during the last five years or so. 

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  

From the CDC site today.

I think this is the most interesting graphic. Even Sophia, seven years old, with a little help from an adult, could interpret this graph:

Comments:

• hospitalizations due to "influenza" -- laboratory diagnosed; probably does not include Covid-19; simply "seasonal flu"
• for the past seven seasons, 2016 - 2017 to 2021 - 2022 to date, inclusive.
• the year of the plague, 2020-2021: lowest rate ever; absolutely amazing; there will be much discussion over at the CDC on this one;
• current year, to date, is running higher than 2011 - 2012 (but just barely) and higher than 2020 - 2021, but well below all previous years, and by quite a bit
• 2017 - 2018 was particularly bad.

This is my second favorite graphic, influenza- ("flu," "seasonal flu") pediatric deaths:

Comments:

• this is simply phenomenal
• from the 20th week in 2020 (the year of the plague) to the 45th week of the following year, 2021, there was one pediatric death recorded in the entire US associated with influenza; 
• this includes all the undocumented children crossing the southern border, and housed closely together;
• this includes all the kids with severely compromised immune systems, particularly cancer (think leukemia)
  
• during the past winter, it appears there were 20 such deaths in the entire United States;
• none have been reported in the current last couple of weeks
• compare the last "clump" with the two larger "clumps" in 2018 - 2019 and 2019 - the fourteenth week of 2020 (pre-Covid)!

After that, you can scroll through the CDC site and check out the other graphs and charts.

This would be my third favorite: this is all deaths due to pneumonia, influenza ("flu," "seasonal flu"), and Covid-19.

Comments:

• the CDC has separated the deaths by PIC "code" (pneumonia, influenza, Covid-19);
• because many folks question correct coding, let's forget about the specific cause (code) and just lump everything together
• it was the 14th week of 2020 (or thereabouts) when the lock downs began;
• prior to that: three small yellow "clumps": percent of all deaths due to PIC
• look at the small percentage: at worse (2018): 2%
• at best, 2019, about 1%, maybe slightly less
• then, in 2020, upwards of 30% - 35% of all US deaths due to PIC
• imagine had we done nothing -- no social distancing, no masking (early on) and no vaccines (later on) how angry Americans would have been with this data; and having done nothing, it definitely would have been worse, probably much worse (even if social distancing and testing/quarantining) were all we had
• back to specific codes: although one can question the accuracy of diagnosing ("flu" vs "Covid") it's hard to believe the entire US health sector conspired to show so few "flu" deaths that no "yellow" made the chart after the 14th week of 2020
• if this chart doesn't get one's attention, there's no use continuing the discussion.

Think about this. In all my years of practicing medicine, most of the time hospitals had an "occupancy rate" of about 90%. During the "flu" season it was much worse. When I trained at Los Angeles County Hospital -- on par with Cook General and anything NYC has, I assume -- we often "ran out of beds" requiring patients admitted to be on gurneys in hallways. This was not uncommon. And that would have been during periods when deaths from infectious lung diseases were running five percent of all deaths -- I'm amazed the US healthcare system -- hospitals -- in-patient units managed to survive with infectious lung diseases running at 35% of all US deaths.

Without question, "we" learned a lot these last five years: research, diagnosing, treating, public health. We should see some interesting analyses of the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 - 2022. 

My nominee for US Covid-19 health care hero: co-nominees -- the chief nurse and the chief of hospital services at every major hospital across the US: public, private, military, county, city.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 27, 2022

Link here.

The report, released at 9:30 a.m. CT:

• US crude oil in storage increased by 0.7 million bbls;
  
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 414.4 million bbls, 16% below the five-year average;
  
• US crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million bbls oil per day; up by 98,000 bopd day;
  
• US refiners operating at 90.3% of their operable capacity;
  
• US distillate inventories decreased by 1.4 million bbls; inventories 21% below the five-year average;
  
• jet fuel supplied was up 23.9% compared with same four-week period last year.
  

Gasoline demand will be reported later today.

*************************
The Movie Page

HBO's Julia.

Link here. And then this link to Judith Jones.

For background, one may want to start with this townandcountrymag photo-journo story on the series. 

Judith Jones was the editor who discovered Julia Child, and that is about whom the above essay is written.

Several Western European Countries -- Led By Austria -- Bow To Putin's Ruble Demand -- April 27, 2022

 What defines a country? What does a country need to maintain autonomy? Integrity? What makes for a "healthy" country?

• control of its own borders;
• a common language; perhaps a common and relatively unique language;
• its own currency;

That's where I would start. 

Countries in the EU are losing much of their "individuality" / identity and a year or so ago, a number of countries were thinking of breaking away (think Brexit for others).

Of course, border integrity was lost a long time ago, and humanitarian crises in eastern Europe and Turkey and the Mideast made the border issues worse.

Several EU countries -- led by Austria -- have now blinked and will meet Putin's demands to buy natural gas with rubles. They will use convoluted processes to change Euros / US dollars to rubles with some folks starting to talk about going back to their own currency.  

What this means for the EU is anyone's guess.

Enerplus Reports A Huge Lynx Well On The Winter Fur Pad In The Antelope-Sanish -- April 27, 2022

The well:

• 7723, conf, Enerplus, Lynx 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, huge well, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 162K 2/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2022	28	23850	23886	12987	46304	43699	267
SANISH	1-2022	22	22376	22383	10733	39376	36600	661
SANISH	12-2021	28	48579	48615	22249	77955	70639	2790
SANISH	11-2021	29	67108	67151	36806	99187	91095	3817

A reader notes:

Back of the envelope look at the natural gas  revenue generated by that Enerplus well today ...

~ 250 million cubic feet at ~$6 per thousand ($6.15 according to last Directors Cut) gives about one and a half million bucks gross revenue from the natural gas stream.

This is a rough calculation as processing/transportation costs need to be deducted. 

Still, this input starts to impact the overall profitability of these wells.

How Tough Is It To Sell EVs? April 27, 2022

Chevy Bolt now offering "free" at home-charger installation -- a $2,000 value?

And, of course, that won't help me, an apartment dweller.

Hess: 1Q22 Earnings

HES: before market open; EPS forecast: $1.13; presentation.

• EPS: pending
• revenue: a huge 15.6% beat; reported $2.37 billion vs $2.05 billion forecast
• earnings: $414 million
• production
• from 295, 2021 to >600 in 2026E
• breakeven: $45 / bbl by 2026
  
• guidance: all about Guyana

Boeing Misses by 1,000% -- No Typo -- April 27, 2022

Boeing

• before market open; forecast: -27 cents; stock fell 5% yesterday; today, pre-market today, down 3%;
• EPS: miss; holy mackerel; reported, -$2.75 vs -25 cents; surprise: -1,022%
• revenue: miss; reported $13.99 billion vs expected $15.9 billion; surprise: -12%

Trump Was Right -- Europe Would Be "Owned" By Russia -- April 27, 2022

Link here. This is today. Now. Just breaking.

Peter Zeihan On Moving On From Oil -- April 27, 2022

The energy transition is dead. Tracked here. 

• ESG is dead, too. Tracked here.

Peter Zeihan e-mail campaign archive: link here. Today's missive is particularly interesting. If one thinks a global oil economy is "messy," wait until we go to an "all-green" economy.

Looking back, the geopolitics of oil have proven to be surprisingly...straightforward. Oil exists in commercially accessible and viable volumes in only a few locations. We might not like the challenges of such locations, and those challenges may have absorbed an outsized chunk of everyone’s attention in the late-industrial and globalization eras, but at least we are familiar with them. You think that “moving on from oil” will put this issue to bed?

Just wait.

In “moving on from oil” we would be walking away from a complex and often-violent and always critical supply and transport system, only to replace it with at least ten more. A world in which we “electrify everything” requires an order of magnitude more copper and lithium and nickel and cobalt and graphite and chromium and zinc and rare earths and silicon and more. Take a peek at the graphic below from the industrial materials chapter of my upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning.

We won’t “simply” be dealing with Russia and Saudi Arabia and Iran; we will all need to engage regularly with Chile and Bolivia and Brazil and Japan and Italy and Peru and Mexico and Germany and the Philippines and Mozambique and South Africa and Guinea and Gabon and Indonesia and Australia and Congo and China and, oh yeah, still Russia.

Putin Going Nuclear Without Going Nuclear -- April 27, 2022

Desperate: cutting off natural gas to Bulgaria and Poland is Putin's "nuclear option." Great map here.

Off The Net -- AFK -- Taking Sophia To School -- April 27, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

A reminder. Previously posted:

Of interest:

• AMGN (after market close: forecast; $4.15)
• AR (Antero Resources) (after market close; forecast: $1.12)
• Boeing (before market open; forecast: -27 cents); stock fell 5% yesterday; today, pre-market today, down 3%;
• EPS: miss; holy mackerel; reported, -$2.75 vs -25 cents; surprise: -1,022%
• revenue: miss; reported $13.99 billion vs expected $15.9 billion; surprise: -12%
  
• CP (Canadian Pacific) (after market close)
• NSC (Norfolk Southern Corp) (before market open; forecast: $2.92); stock fell 2% yesterday; flat in pre-market trading today;
  
• HES (before market open; forecast: $1.13)
• EPS: pending
• revenue: a huge 15.6% beat; reported $2.37 billion vs $2.05 billion forecast
  
• QCOM (after market close; forecast: $2.91)
• F (Ford) (forecast: 37 cents)

Alphabet: over at SeekingAlpha. 

Amazon: over at SeekingAlpha. 

• Amazon could report single-digit YoY overall revenue growth while AWS should continue to deliver over 35% YoY growth.

Apple - Netflix: over at SeekingAlpha. 

General: With the way the NASDAQ / tech has imploded, it's very possible there could be some huge re-shuffling, mergers, bankruptcies, and a widening gap between the big ones (Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook) and the others 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

****************************
Not Exactly Sure What We Have Going On Here

Judah: age two. Loves hats and caps. His brother does not.

Rare Fuel Oil Shipment To US From UAE This Past Week -- April 27, 2022

Today is going to be a very, very busy news day.

Of all the stories that were posted overnight, I think this is the most interesting, posted by S&P Global: Fujairah -- "fu-ja-irah" -- oil product stocks dropped after a fuel oil shipment to the US. There are so many story lines here. Link here.

• background, wiki entry.
• UAE
• largest port on the eastern seaboard of the UAE
• world's second largest bunkering hub
• bunkering: supply of fuel for use by ships including the logistics required, wiki entry;
• back to the S&P Global story:
• Fujairah total inventory down 25% this past year
• a three-week low as of April 25 after a rare fuel oil shipment to the US
• 1.06 million bbls of fuel oil to the US; only the second such shipment since at least June 2020
• heavy distillates are needed at this time of year as Saudi Arabia looks to use more fuel oils instead of crude oil to burn for power generation as demand for air conditioning ramps up with summer weather:

Much more at the link. May require a login but registration is free. 

In the big scheme of things, it may simply be "business as usual" with changing seasons, changing geopolitical events, etc., but it speaks volumes about US energy independence (or not).

Covid-19 -- April 27, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

Updates

Later, 11:12 a.m. CT:  The original post below was posted early this morning. Since then, I have had some time to check on some additional links, mostly concerning anti-virals.

• anti-virals: 
• Tricare (military) health and wellness, Covid-19; 
• military health, Covid-19; 
• FDA, December 22, 2021: Pfizer's Paxlovid; 
• Houston Methodist, December 28, 2021; 
• Fauci, April 27, 2022, today: "we're out of the pandemic phase"
• I hated to use the CNN source but the story is linked everywhere;
• this makes the DOJ case against TSA lifting the mask mandate that much more difficult 
• most interesting:
• CDC graphics on Covid-19 and seasonal flu, historical data; will be posted separately.
  

Original Post

A reader noted yesterday that on the previous day -- so that was two days ago -- that ivermectin was trending over on twitter. I can't remember if I replied to the reader or not; I don't think I did. I did not want to wade back into that swamp but two things changed in less than 24 hours:

1) VP Kamala Harris has now tested positive, the highest-ranking person in the administration to have tested positive (prior: Nancy Pelosi); and,
2) ivermectin is again trending over at twitter this morning and, in fact, was near the top -- at least for while, if I recall correctly but I may be wrong. Too much news right now 

So, a couple of quick links / notes and maybe I will come back to this later:

• VP Kamala Harris: tests positive, asymptomatic, two primary and two booster vaccinations
• taking an anti-viral
  
• Ivermectin was indeed trending over at twitter earlier this morning, about 4:00 a.m. CT, but is now off the 5-item trend list;
• ivermectin does not reduce risk of Covid-19 hospitalization
• at one time, ivermectin was on the Tricare (military) formulary and readily available; I was unable to access the formulary yesterday so I do not the status of ivermectin and Tricare, now will I check again for now; too much other stuff going on
• Tricare formulary offers at least three anti-virals to treat Covid-19; will post those later;
• Ms Kamala Harris was prescribed one anti-viral after testing positive; link to LA Times;
• prescribed Paxlovid, Pfizer
• after returning to work on Tuesday, per SOP, she was given a rapid antigen test (positive) and confirmed with a PCR test
• President Trump has had two primary vaccinations and at least one booster
• studies show that vaccine is better at preventing re-infection than natural immunity.
• on the surface this makes no sense at all but if one reads the study and thinks about it, it makes sense
• one wonders if "we" see the same thing in any of the other diseases for which "we" are routinely vaccinated, mostly as infants and children

Maybe more later. I am no longer particularly interested in the subject except to see where "we" stand with regard to anti-virals. I do track daily vaccination rates and occasionally -- very rarely, any more -- post them.

For investors, my hunch is that Big Pharm profits from the vaccine will vary immensely across the industry. One Big Pharm company reports to the SEC that they make no profit on the vaccine; while another Big Pharm company is said to be doing incredibly well with regard to profits. 

However, my hunch is that oral anti-viral medications will be dispensed "like water" as they say during any future Covid-19 surge and for "seasonal flu." I think this -- the oral anti-virals -- not the vaccine -- is where the "real money" is going to be made. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

When I was in practice, we had only one, and then maybe two anti-virals for seasonal flu, neither of which impressed me. But now, three more anti-virals and generally accepted by many / most / all physicians / patients has made monumental changes in the way "flu" will be treated in the future.

In addition, the wide-spread availability of these oral anti-virals as well as the huge number of asymptomatic cases -- in vaccinated folks -- suggests that the US will not need to return to draconian measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 going forward. 

It will be interesting to see if there is a drop-off in hospitalizations and / or deaths from all respiratory causes this next "flu" season. It could be monumental.  If so, a major public health success story.

Breaking Right Now: CLR Declares / Increases Quarterly Dividend, Announces Results -- April 27, 2022

Press release here. Much more will come out during the next 24 hours. From the press release:

• dividend: 28 cents; from 5 cents; a 22% increase, record date, May 9, 2022; payable, May 23, 2022;
• at 1.8% annualized dividend yield exceeds the S&P 500 average yield;
• production, 1Q22:
• 374 million boepd -- average
• 195 million bopd -- average
• 1,074 MMcfpd natural gas average
• guidance raises 2022 annual production to 210 on high side from 205
• Permian: added over 75,000 acres to its Permian position
• first quarter results: conference call, Thursday morning, tomorrow
  

Huge Apology -- April 27, 2022

Huge, huge apology for those who were adversely affected by a recent poll on the blog. It was not my intention to mislead. I simply blew it, leaving out a critical word in the poll question. 

See this note for background. One or two folks appropriately called me out on my error. 

I had "linked" the poll to a WSJ article but had failed to distinguish between "wind turbines in general -- offshore and onshore" in the poll question.

I am very, very sorry. No intention to mislead. If its any consolation, I will offer lifetime subscriptions to the blog to those who answered the poll in good faith. 

And so we move on.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Huge Day Of News Today; Earnings Pending Wednesday -- April 27, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Peter Zeihan e-mail campaign archive: link here. Today's missive is particularly interesting. If one thinks a global oil economy is "messy," wait until we go to an "all-green" economy. 

Desperate: cutting off natural gas to Bulgaria and Poland is Putin's "nuclear option." Great map here.

China Covid-19 lock downs: there was a single note over at twitter early this morning suggesting things were improving in China. If I find it again, I will link it.

NYMEX ULSD futures closed at $4.50 yesterday, Tuesday, a "settlement record high." Link here. This story is getting little play in Texas and elsewhere but my hunch: this is a big story in New York. And then look at this: from Fujairah -- "fu-ji-rah" -- oil product stocks after rare fuel oil shipment to US. Link here. Will be stand-alone post later.

XOM: hikes resource estimate after three new Guyana discoveries; estimates now at 11 billion boe recoverable. To put that in perspective, Bakken estimates at 50 billion bbls crude oil using Leigh Price's estimates of OOIL and 10% recovery. 

Goldman's top five shale plays: Hess, EOG, PXD, COP, Kosmos. Will post stand-alone later. Link here for now.

Of interest:

• AMGN (after market close: forecast; $4.15)
• AR (Antero Resources) (after market close; forecast: $1.12)
• Boeing (before market open; forecast: -27 cents)
• CP (Canadian Pacific) (after market close)
• NSC (Norfolk Southern Corp) (before market open; forecast: $2.92)
  
• HES (before market open; forecast: $1.13)
• QCOM (after market close; forecast: $2.91)
• F (Ford) (forecast: 37 cents)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$102.10	4/27/2022	04/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018
Active Rigs	37	16	30	64	62

Wednesday, April April 27, 2022: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 212 for one year

• 38139, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 11-8H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  
• 37723, conf, Enerplus, Lynx 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, huge well, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 162K 2/22;
  
• 35561, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnit E 159-95-31-30-2MBH, Northwest McGregor, nice well; first production, 11/21; t--; cum 98K 2/22;
  

RBN Energy: Everything has changed! Plan to quickly wean Europe off Russian gas faces major hurdles. 

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe is planning massive and rapid changes in its natural gas supply, including a significant increase in LNG deliveries from the U.S. But there are major challenges and implications associated with this shift. For example, how can the U.S. government prod U.S. exporters to send more LNG to Europe? How can LNG buyers — or sellers — collaborate without running afoul of European Union antitrust laws? Can the development of new LNG import terminals be fast-tracked? And can long-term contracts for Russian pipeline gas be breached without penalty now that Russia has suspended deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria for not paying in rubles? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what U.S. and European efforts need to overcome.

As readers of Daniel Yergin’s “The Prize” will know, energy price spikes caused by military or geopolitical conflict are a hallmark of the oil industry. The Arab-Israeli War in 1973 gave rise to the first oil price shock of modern times, followed in 1979 when oil production was reduced after the Iranian revolution. More oil price shocks came with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the ensuing Gulf War and with the Arab Spring and Syrian conflict of 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Incidentally, The Prize, by Daniel Yergin, was perhaps one of the first and one of the best books I have read in any genre. For years I considered it "the bible" for those who wanted to understand the history of oil. It remains easily accessible on my top shelf but I haven't looked at it in a long time. It just seems that was so long ago, and almost irrelevant -- but in a very good way.