Friday, July 20, 2018

Tale Of Two States -- July 20, 2018

It would be crazy to make any conclusions based on a single month of data, but this is quite staggering.

First, California:
  • added only 800 jobs in June, 2018



Meanwhile, Texas:
  • led the nation in job growth in June, 2018; added 42,000 jobs in June
  • note where "42,000" would be on the California chart
Population:
  • California: 40 million
  • Texas: 30 million
Peak electricity:
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Thirteen New Permits -- July 20, 2018; Petro-Hunt Acquires 130 Divide County Wells From SM Energy

Active rigs:

$68.11→7/20/201807/20/201707/20/201607/20/201507/20/2014
Active Rigs68593170195

Note: the oilprice.com reports WTI at $68.11; the crawler at CNBC says WTI closed at a bit over $70 (perhaps different contracts)

Thirteen new permits:
  • Operators: Petroshale (5); MRO (4): Hess (3); Resonance Exploration
  • Fields: North Fork (McKenzie), Killdeer (Dunn), Alkali Creek (Mountrail), Sergis (Bottineau)
  • Comments: Petroshale has permits for a 5-well Tailgunner Federal pad on lot 1, section 18-149-96;
Eight permits renewed:
  • BR (6): six CCU Gopher permits in Dunn County
  • EOG (2): two Burke permits in Mountrail County
Four producing wells (DUCs) completed:
  • 33910, 2,046, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-7, t7/18; cum --  (#16610)
  • 33909, 2,282, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-6, t7/18; cum --
  • 33908, 1,939, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-5, t7/18; cum --
  • 33907, 2,489, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-4, t7/18; cum --
Change of operator: 130 wells  from SM Energy to Petro-Hunt
  • a lot of good wells involved in this deal
  • all in Divide County
  • oldest permit: 15761
  • newest permit: 32766
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Wind "Drought" In UK Continues -- July 20, 2018

Updates

July 20, 2018: lack of wind leaves UK turbine investors short-changed -- from oilprice.com.  The wind drought:
It’s been a stifling summer of disappointment for investors in the UK’s wind farms, which a heatwave has put at a standstill that’s seen a major drop in power generation eat away at millions of pounds in profits.
As a prolonged ‘wind drought’ ensues, British energy giant SSE has announced an £80-million (around $104 million) reduction in quarterly profits, with both offshore and inland wind farms experiencing 15 percent lower output than originally anticipated.
SEE also said that electricity output from hydropower stations was 20 percent lower than expected.
The dismal numbers from the company’s first fiscal quarter indicated to investors that the full-year results may also take a hit, prompting share prices to plunge more than percent to £13.50 on Thursday.

Original Post
Previously posted, back on July 11, 2018:
Wow, talk about perfect timing.

I just posted an entry in which all agree: renewable energy is one of the least efficient ways to go about replacing coal consumption in a short period of time.

The article did not say what the least efficient way to go. Most likely that's nuclear power. It takes ten years to get the permits, and then another ten years to build the damn thing. Assuming all goes well.

So, here we have a most interesting story.

Apparently, those living in the United Kingdom are learning that:
a) the wind doesn't blow all the time (except over Menwith Hill);
b) wind power is not dispatchable; and,
c) their Kingdom does not have a good answer for energy when the wind quits blowing
Here's the story. Huge thanks to Don; I would have missed it.
  • Britain has gone nine days with no wind generation
  • forecasts show the doldrums to persist for another two weeks
  • day-ahead power prices are the highest level for this time of year for at least a decade
  • except for a surge forecast for June 14th, the forecast is for the wind to stay low for at least the next two weeks
  • UK turbines can produce about as much power as 12 nuclear reactors when conditions are right
  • recently, wind generated about 4.3% of the Kingdom's electricity
  • coal output has dropper near zero
  • gas and nuclear power have picked up the slack, 54% and 25% respectively
  • repeat: natural gas is now supplying more than half of the Kingdom's electricity requirements, and that's without all those Teslas which Musk promises us we will see next year
So, the Kingdom's answer? I can't make this up:
  • A new nuclear reactor. The financing push begins soon. Whenever that might be.
Great graphics, by the way, as usual, at the linked Bloomberg article. 

By the way, one more thing: this wind-thing won't happen during the winter. Had it happened during the winter it would be a catastrophe for England. In the summer, not so bad. Just higher prices.
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The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+50 -- July 20, 2018

Politics: wow, I love this president. The first one since Teddy Roosevelt, I think, who actually seems to be very, very comfortable "in his skin," as they say. He doesn't seem to have a need to have speech writers write everything for him. He remains spontaneous, speaks his mind, gives folks "something to talk about." Never a dull moment. I don't know. It seems better that we have the leaders of the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals to actually be talking face-to-face. Sometimes I think folks have forgotten the Cold War of the 1950s. Just rambling.


Natural gas. I don't know what others are thinking, but I think this graphic is incredibly remarkable. If this was under a different administration and/or if it was a snapshot taken a decade ago, one would think the problem is lack of production, but today, the US has record amounts of production, and record amount of reserves, and yet, the EIA forecasts the natural gas "injection" will hit a new low this autumn. Absolutely amazing. Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe it's that third potline that Alcoa will be re-starting later this summer. I don't know. Just rambling.



Thought experiment: one of the things I enjoy most when driving the granddaughters to various events, is to try to "step out of my body," and look at the world from a distance, our "place in the universe" as it were. I find it absolutely remarkable all the life forms and all the color compared to the rest of the universe. There seems to be a huge jump from what we see on Mars or Venus or Pluto to what we see on earth. And there doesn't seem to be any examples of anything "in between." It's almost an "all or nothing" phenomenon.
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CLR's Thronson Wells In Alkali Creek

The graphic:




The wells:
  • 33351, 2,624, CLR, Thronson 4-21H1, Alkali Creek, very high gas units, TD = 26,126 feet, 84 stages; 14.5 million lbs (about 175K/stage), a very nice well; t1/18; cum 146K 5/18;
  • 33350, 2,424, CLR, Thronson 5-21H, Alkali Creek, a very nice well, TD = 25,967 feet, 79 stages; 14.1 million lbs (about 180K/stage); t1/18; cum 106K 5/18;
  • 29671, 754, CLR, Thronson Federal 6-21H2, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 363K 5/18; 
  • 29670, 1,195, CLR, Thronson Federal 7-21H, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 318K 5/18;
  • 29668, 1,122, CLR, Thronson Federal 8-21H1, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 361K 5/18;
  • 29667, 1,109, CLR, Thronson Federal 9-21H, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 3257K 5/18;
  • 22618, 907, CLR, Thronson Federal 1-28AH, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, TD = 21,354 feet, 30 stages; about 3 million lbs sand/ceramic , t2/13; cum 2317K 5/18;
  • 22620, 946, CLR, Thronson Federal 2-28AH, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, t2/13; cum 257K 5/18;
Production profiles.

33351:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20182894759279
4-20183590861232
3-20182584932935
2-20183022245491
1-20182398730383

33350:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20182829576650
4-20182975156101
3-2018394240
2-20182830453312
1-20181717728045

29671, a Three Forks second bench well; 45 stages, 8.2 million lbs (large/small sand; small ceramic), looks like it took about 19 days to drill to TD:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20183191149205129681833417563529
BAKKEN4-20183013392134741891326786231503397
BAKKEN3-20183114909146372108730187261793784
BAKKEN2-20182262926336131861118110081937
BAKKEN1-201814393738377633538941781104
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20171414101600
BAKKEN10-20173014248146222046021928142427477
BAKKEN9-2017301226412167111241923799819108
BAKKEN8-201712226719923705350717271713
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20171975297729418016741166130
BAKKEN5-201715314933491245547053780
BAKKEN4-20172873767249322716916167290
BAKKEN3-2017319490947850863128030111930
BAKKEN2-2017281103511214576231183298971070
BAKKEN1-20171792779101514717213159601140
BAKKEN12-2016258548860126431163295391949
BAKKEN11-2016271105311000495023471213111963
BAKKEN10-2016311479014871634324724220732405
BAKKEN9-201619102069860379415337152170
BAKKEN8-20162502375400
BAKKEN7-201630115791168241761441714317100
BAKKEN6-20163010991109953930129701294030
BAKKEN5-2016311304713105451316930145982332
BAKKEN4-201628120021199739921615115501650
BAKKEN3-201631151301519054952156320879684
BAKKEN2-201629155291567856492413023867263
BAKKEN1-2016311862818527734727900252262674
BAKKEN12-2015311911018910770529229250374192
BAKKEN11-20153021842220347952287771216616611
BAKKEN10-201531194461943080172884228740102
BAKKEN9-2015301947619431845827934265341400
BAKKEN8-201524157101550969272224621887359
BAKKEN7-2015317311456556736667
BAKKEN6-2015000000


29670:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20183113348134861609839511381161148
BAKKEN4-20183019896201342042949027425456243
BAKKEN3-20183127416268982774756846494667150
BAKKEN2-201823971597831185516254147171368
BAKKEN1-20181460555901132421049882192172
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20171505001600
BAKKEN10-20173125202256712219843666402593191
BAKKEN9-201723178281735113496267401004416587
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20171612741558902495348900
BAKKEN5-20173151135136313518767185420

29668:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201831120561213570802178520908630
BAKKEN4-20183015493155601238630985268123934
BAKKEN3-20183115972156931307433716292574229
BAKKEN2-20182182238400921116283147581372
BAKKEN1-20181498289578683716390128793404
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20171414101600
BAKKEN10-20173110826112271411015336108234294
BAKKEN9-20172812134121321527718262138604201
BAKKEN8-2017240308487360736
BAKKEN7-201711281282438000
BAKKEN6-20171634503837176712883127630
BAKKEN5-20173090538671480327631274030

29667:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20183143914415270667336299190
BAKKEN4-201830539654453127878774541094
BAKKEN3-20183167386658905218307157962283
BAKKEN2-201828772978315008107989688901
BAKKEN1-201814667065005813668852051376
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-2017141410000
BAKKEN10-20173057416012814379137223469
BAKKEN9-201715255725422288302829240
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BHGE Misses Estimates -- July 20, 2018

New Jersey: on July 1, 2018 -- less than three weeks ago -- it was reported that New Jersey was going to rely on internet "on-line" sales tax to make up a huge budget deficit. Hold that thought. LOL. 

Do you know who's not worried about the trade war? The chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Two data points: his testimony suggests he feel the economy is accelerating; and, his testimony suggests there it is not likely that planned interest rates will not be taken off the table, confirming that he thinks the Fed needs to "cool the economy." Unless he did not get the memo on tariffs and the trade war, one would think the Fed would consider that before raising rates. And as long as the Fed feels comfortable raising rates, that tells me they're not worried about the trade war. 
BHGE: misses estimates; EPS of $0.10; misses by 4 cents; seems like a pretty big miss; revenue of $5.5 billion but missed estimate by $20 million.

Steel / iron ore -- making America great again. Seriously. From SeekingAlpha:
  • Cleveland-Cliffs +6.9% premarket after posting strong Q2 earnings and revenue beats and raising its full-year sales volume outlook.
  • CLF says Q2 U.S. iron ore pellet sales volume totaled 6M long tons, up 38% from 4.3M long tons in the year-ago quarter, driven by increased customer demand and the impact of the previously disclosed adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard.
  • Q2 realized revenues of $112.60/ton rose 16% Y/Y, primarily due to increased steel pricing and pellet premiums, which are magnified by favorable contract structures.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken 

Wow, look at all the wells coming off the confidential list today (reporting these may be delayed: family commitments from now until 9:30 a.m.):
  • 33959, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 8-20-17-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production datta,
  • 33906, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-15-1HS, Charlson, no production data,
  • 33351, 2,624, CLR, Thronson 4-21H1, Alkali Creek, very high gas units, TD = 26,126 feet, 84 stages; 14.5 million lbs (about 175K/stage), a very nice well; t1/18; cum 146K 5/18;
  • 33350, 2,424, CLR, Thronson 5-21H, Alkali Creek, a very nice well, TD = 25,967 feet, 79 stages; 14.1 million lbs (about 180K/stage); t1/18; cum 106K 5/18;
  • 34347, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 41X-36DA, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 33341, drl, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36E, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 32806, 1,068, CLR, Oakdale 8-13H2, Jim Creek, producing, nice but not remarkable; t1/18; cum 67K 5/18;

For newbies: the new wells -- #33351 and #33350 -- were extended long laterals, 79 and 84 stages; about 175K pounds/stage which is slightly on the low side of the usual 200K pounds/stage in the Bakken;

The CLR Thronson wells: are followed here. 

Active rigs:


7/20/201807/20/201707/20/201607/20/201507/20/2014
Active Rigs68593170195

RBN Energy: gas transportation expansions in western Canada.
Despite intensifying competition from U.S. natural gas producers — or because of it — Western Canadian gas producers are ramping up their long-term commitments for intra-basin takeaway capacity from the Montney Shale, as well as for capacity at both intra-provincial and export delivery points. Not only has there been a slew of new project announcements in the region, but in some cases, commitments reportedly have exceeded proposed capacity during open seasons. Today, we provide an update of gas pipeline expansion projects in Western Canada.
We’ve talked quite a bit in recent months about the worsening gas supply congestion along U.S.-Canadian border regions, which is heating up the competition between U.S. and Canadian natural gas producers. Natural gas production growth on both sides of the border has been outpacing demand growth. 
Western Canadian producers have been contending with gas transportation constraints right where production is growing the most, in northwestern Alberta and eastern British Columbia (BC). Last fall, the Alberta gas market experienced extreme bottlenecks that left production stranded and sent area gas prices spiraling to negative territory. The ramp-up of winter heating demand helped ease the constraints, but the negative pricing briefly returned this past spring.
Part of the problem is that production growth is increasingly concentrated in the eastern BC and northwestern Alberta areas of the Montney, and pipeline gathering and takeaway capacity has been playing catch-up, especially as plans for LNG exports from the region have faced continual delays or have gotten derailed entirely. The other factor is that while intra-provincial demand is also growing — from gas-fired power generation and oil sands projects — the connectivity between the supply and delivery areas has lagged as well. Over the past few years, regional pipeline operators have responded with expansion plans to debottleneck the supply areas and connect producers to downstream markets. These expansions will shape how Canadian producers navigate the increasingly competitive North American gas market over the next few years. So, next, we take a closer look at recently built and planned projects.
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The Burn In Burnaby -- Camp Cloud Has Gotten An Eviction Notice -- July 20, 2018

Purely coincidental. Earlier today I posted a "Burnaby 101" post.

Tonight I see the city of Burnaby ordered the eviction of the Trans Mountain pipeline protest camp. The city says Camp Cloud has violated multiple bylaws; protesters have no plans to leave. Those living in the camp have 72 hours to close it down, or the city will do it for them.
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