Sunday, July 1, 2018

Just Saying -- July 1, 2018


July 3, 2018: flashback, March 15, 2012, Obama considered releasing oil from the SPR, and at that time, WTI/Brent prices were a whole lot higher, and threatening to go higher.

July 3, 2018: idle doodling. Back of the envelope.
SPR: pretty steady at around 700 million bbls, link.

SPR emergency releases:
  • 2005, Hurricane Katrina: 30 million bbls, sweet/sour half and half
  • 1991 Operation Desert Storm: 33.75 million bbls 
  • at a million bopd, the SPR could add half what President Trump wants for a year; gives the shale industry and Canada plenty of time to increase pipeline capacity
  • the data point I don't know: how much can they actually release from the SPR on a daily basis
US exports: 1.5 million bopd, link.

So, SPR + exports: would easily make up the difference.

Iran: exports about 2.6 million bopd, supposedly

OPEC+: says it will increase production by about 600,000 bopd

Had President Obama not killed the Keystone XL it would now be delivering upwards of 830,000 bopd and it would be the "right" kind of oil for US refineries along the west coast.

US supply of crude oil: about 24 days

Global supply of crude oil: about 65 days

July 2, 2018: from

Original Post

Congress lifted the ban on crude oil exports in December, 2015, after a 40-year ban.

If President Trump is so concerned about the price of gasoline, and now "begging" Saudi Arabia to increase production (as most previous US presidents have done in modern history -- some bowing, some not), wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to simply put a temporary ban on US oil exports?

Meanwhile, he could:
  • expedite the sale of oil from the SPR
  • use the bully pulpit or an executive order to get "Line 3" built and/or Keystone XL built (after all, even Canada's Trudeau found a way to move the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project along)
  • encourage Permian build out:
    • cut tariffs on steel and pipe imports
    • urge Congress to give the oil industry tax incentives to build more pipelines more quickly
Just saying.

Did New Jersey Avoid A Partial State Shudown?

Yup. Apparently. The state legislature is scheduled to vote on the budget Sunday morning (today).

The fix? They caved. Increased taxes all around, including the "millionaire's tax." One exception, a sales-tax increase.
Under the agreement, New Jersey’s top income-tax rate will increase to 10.75% on filers earning $5 million and above, up from 8.97%. The tax is expected to raise an additional $280 million a year in revenue, Mr. Murphy said.
The governor and lawmakers also agreed to a four-year surcharge on businesses earning more than $1 million. These companies would see their income-tax rate increase to 11.5% from 9% for the next two years, before lowering to 10.5% in the two years after that, Mr. Murphy said. The surcharge is expected to raise $425 million for the fiscal year that begins Sunday.
The deal doesn’t include a sales-tax increase, which Mr. Murphy had said was necessary—along with a millionaire’s tax—to establish “sustainable, recurring” revenue streams for the state budget. On Saturday, Mr. Murphy said the sales-tax increase was no longer needed due to a June decision by the Supreme Court allowing states to tax online sales, along with the recent repatriation of money from overseas.
Add all this to the new federal tax on the wealthy in high cost blue states and New Jersey is getting to be a really, really expensive state in which to live. Look at that business tax. Amazing.

$37.4 billion budget.

A 4.2% increase year-over-year.

0.042 x $37.4 billion = $1.6 billion

Millionaire's tax: $280 million / $1.6 billion = 17.5%

Business tax: $425 million / $1.6 billion = 26.5%

They are counting on the online sales tax to make up the difference? Okay.

114 comments at the article so far. Let's see what the trend is: about what one would expect. Comment with which I agree most: a lot of wealthy NJ residents are going to finally put off relocating to Florida after all these years. I disagree with those who suggest they will move to Texas; not likely.

New Jersey: one multi-billionaire does his part to help New Jersey get back to income equality. He left. May 7, 2016.

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