The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 01/29/23

Sunday, January 29, 2023

https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-billionaires-behind-the-gas-bans?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=98900349&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email.

https://twitter.com/jglarusso/status/1616788338140233729.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/major-insurance-companies-are-refusing-to-cover-hyundai-and-kias-because-theyre-stolen-too-much.

Ten Most Welcoming Places In The World -- January 29, 2023

Link here.

This was data-backed, not opinion.

Amazon Raises Prices On Groceries -- January 29, 2023

When I see the following "words" in one sentence, it's not good: Amazon delivery $10 $150.

At almost $10 for deliveries under $50, Amazon is telling its customers: we're done with this craziness. I've heard folks with Amazon Prime tell me they didn't think twice about ordering four bananas as their complete grocery order. Absolutely crazy.

Link to The Verge.

It would be surprising if Target and Walmart didn't follow suit, as they say.

Link here.

This is a huge story. I'm not exactly sure how it plays out, but I'm sure everyone will have an opinion on it.

I think it's one of the bigger news stories of the week and it seems to be getting no attention. So, we'll see.

Amazon must have been losing a lot of money on groceries to "sock it to" its Prime members at the amount. It makes one wonder if Amazon will look at its other delivery costs.

But back to food.

Are there three broad areas of food delivery?

grocery delivery, like Target, Amazon, Walmart, Costco?
meals-to-prepare at home (meal kits), like Blue Apron?
meals-ready-to-eat, like DoorDash and Grubhub?

The last category can be divided into three sub-categories:

fast food delivery: McDonald's, Starbucks
pizza; and,
restaurants more upscale than McDonald's;

So, the first one, grocery delivery: this business will grow significantly but the business model will also be tweaked significantly; costs will go up.

Meals-to-prepare at home (meal kits)? Perhaps more than a passing fad, but not for me. Perhaps best purpose: date night. Plan a Friday night "date night" and order early in the week.

By the way, one would think that this would be a huge competitor to "mail-order steak services" like Omaha Steaks and/or ButcherBox. Costco has really, really good steak options at a much, much better price than "mail-order steak services" and it's easier / less expensive to buy steak for two people / one meal (Costco) than buying the typically much larger order from a "mail-order steak service" (Omaha Steaks).

DoorDash and Grubhub: will definitely get more expensive. Interestingly, pizza delivery might be the beneficiary, as folks tire of wilted Fries and other fast foods that don't travel well. Does sushi travel well at all?

Open Book Test: Denbury Wins Big With Biden's "Green" Agenda -- January 29, 2023

Link here.

Like Intel, it doesn't matter whether you excel at what you do; it matters how you play the game -- the political game.

Denbury really didn't have to pivot. It was already "doing CO2."

But then Greta showed up. LOL

"Doing CO2" was the right business to be in and Denbury was "in CO2." LOL.

Middling oil producer Denbury Inc. emerged from bankruptcy in September 2020 with a collection of aging wells, pipelines to move around carbon dioxide and uncertain prospects.

Today, the Dallas-based company is one of the big winners of the Biden administration’s signature climate bill.

Denbury took on significant amounts of debt over the past decade acquiring oil properties and building out the pipelines, which ferry CO2 to depleted oil fields and coax out more crude. By 2019, debt equivalent to around 11 times its earnings was weighing on the producer’s finances, before Covid-19 lockdowns and falling oil prices pushed it into bankruptcy.

The company has since expanded into waste management, with plans to carry emitters’ CO2 through hundreds of miles of pipelines and bury it in rocky reservoirs—for a fee.

Its stock is trading around $88—more than four times its price when Denbury relisted in late 2020. And analysts say that the company’s foothold in the carbon business makes it an attractive acquisition target for large oil companies.

“I would certainly say it’s moved faster than I expected,” Denbury Chief Executive Chris Kendall said of the company’s recovery.

Behind Denbury’s renaissance: billions of dollars of public money juicing carbon capture. Tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, which President Biden signed into law last year, reward companies that store CO2 underground. Denbury won’t receive public funding directly in most cases—it will go to customers who capture the carbon—but the company will charge customers for handling their emissions.

My day, if he were still around, would find this humorous, to say the least.

Another example of the importance of investors to pay attention to President Biden and his "green agenda."

As for me, I'm loving it.

DEN: a P/E of nine; pays no dividend.

By the way, another great example of the strength -- if that's the right word -- the American system -- the opportunity of companies to reorganize with protection from creditors granted by the courts in an expeditious matter.

On every level, I find this a wonderful -- if that's the right word -- story. Good for Denbury, its CEO, its board or directors, its roughnecks, and its shareholders.

By the way, same with Intel -- getting a huge "bailout" from the Biden administration.

For the record: I don't invest directly in either Intel or Denbury.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Largest US Companies By Revenue -- January 29, 2023

In March, 2023, I will be tweaking my "new money" allocation with regard to my investing.

An interesting data point: US companies by revenue. Link here. The top 25 should not surprise anyone.

USPS revenues grew to $78.8 billion from $77.1 billion in fiscal year 2021.

at $79 billion in revenue, the USPS would fall between Intel ($79 billion) and Procter & Gamble ($76 billion).

By sector, top 25:

healthcare: 4 -- CVS, Cardinal Health, UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health,
retail: 4 -- Walmart, Costco, The Home Depot, Kroger
petroleum: 3 -- XOM, CVX, Marathon Petroleum
conglomerate: 2 -- BRK, ATT
technology: 2 -- Google, Microsoft,
pharmaceutical: 2 -- AmerisourceBergen, Walgreeens Boots Alliance,
automotive: 2 -- Ford, General Motors
retail and cloud computing: 1 -- Amazon,
electronics: 1 -- Apple
health: 1 -- McKesson
health insurance: 1 -- Cigna
telecommunications: 1 -- Verizon
financial services: 1 -- JPMorgan Chase

If one lumps all sectors related to health (health care, health insurance, pharmaceutical, etc): 8.

Twenty most profitable:

Apple, BRK, Google, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase,
Facebook, Amazon, BofA, XOM, Fannie Mae
Verizon, Pfizer, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo
JNJ, ATT, Intel, Ford, UnitedHealth Group

Only one oil company in that group of twenty.

Three health-related company in that group of twenty, two of which are pharmaceutical, one more than the other.

Technology? Five.

Financial? Six.

It will be interesting to see where Ford ends up ten years from now.

Lipstick Message -- A Musical Interlude -- January 29, 2023

From wiki:

Yumi Matsutoya, Matsutōya Yumi, born January 19, 1954), nicknamed Yuming, Yūmin), is a Japanese singer, composer, lyricist and pianist. Generally the writer of both the lyrics and the music in her songs, she is renowned for her idiosyncratic voice and live performances, and is one of the most prominent figures in the history of Japanese popular music.

Her recording career has been commercially successful with more than 42 million records sold.

In 1990, her album The Gates of Heaven became the first album to be certified "2x million" by the RIAJ, and she has had twenty-one No. 1 albums listed on the Oricon charts.

She is the only artist to have at least one number-one album every year on the Oricon charts for 18 consecutive years.

After gaining several years of experience as a session musician, she debuted as a singer-songwriter in 1972. During her early career, she worked under her birth name Yumi Arai, Arai Yumi).

In 1975, Arai became known as a composer for "Ichigo Hakusho wo Mou Ichido", a commercially successful song recorded by the folk duo BanBan. She also gained popularity as a vocalist in the same year through the success of "Ano Hi ni Kaeritai", which became her first number-one hit on Japan's Oricon Charts. Other famous songs include "Haru-yo, Koi" and "Sweet, Bitter Sweet.".

Link here.

*************************
Streaming Wars

Link here.

Hope Springs Eternal Or Not Paying Attention? January 29, 2023

When there are 15,000 publicly traded companies from which to choose, it boggles my mind why one would chose an oil company drilling in California. It's the same thought I have regarding PFE: when there are 15,000 publicly traded companies from which to choose, it boggles my mind why one would chose one with a public relations lightning rod.

Link here:

How does one spell CVX, XOM, COP, DVN .....?

Just Some Of The Things We Will Be Talking About This Week -- January 29, 2023

Link here.

Arizona's Pima County public defender crisis:

Iran, Syria, Israel?

AAPL.

Updating The Whiting Kannianen Wells In The Sanish -- January 29, 2023

The following Whiting Kannianen wells have gone over 400K bbls crude oil cumulative:

17035, cum 900K 4/22; off line 4/22;
18077, cum 501K 9/21; off line 9/21;
18298, cum 726K 3/22; off line 3/22;
18553, cum 441K 11/21; off line 11/21;
22174, cum 451K 4/22; off line 4/22;

The Whiting Kannianen wells that are off line:

17035, IA/2,016, Whiting, Kannianen 11-4H; 4-153-91; middle Bakken; t8/08; cum 889K 12/20; cum 893K 4/21; cum 900K 4/22; off linee 4/22;
18077, AB/1,773, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5H; 5-153-91; middle Bakken; t9/09; cum 495K 12/20; cum 498K 4/21; cum 501K 9/21; off line 9/21;
18298, IA/3,422, Whiting, Kannianen 44-33H; 33-154-91; middle Bakken; t1/10; cum 713K 12/20; remains off line 1/20; back on line 3/20; cum 717K 4/21; cum 726K 3/22; off line 3/22;
18553, IA/1,776, Whiting, Kannianen 43-13H; 31-154-91; middle Bakken; t7/10; cum 426K 12/20; remains off line 1/20; back on line 4/20; cum 433K 4/21; cum 441K 11/21; off line 11/21;
19174, AB/IA/2,090, Whiting, Kannianen 43-33H; 33-154-91; middle Bakken; t10/10; cum 391K 4/19; off line 4/19; remains off line 4/21; remains off line 11/22;
21031, IA/1,969, Whiting, Carl Kannianen 21-4H; 4-153-91; s7/11; t12/11; cum 359K 12/20; cum 362K 4/21; cum 369K 4/22; off line 6/22;
22173, IA/1,180, Whiting, Carl Kannianen 22-32TFX; 32-154-91; t9/12; cum 224K 12/20; cum 227K 4/21; ; cum 231K 11/21; off line 11/21;
22174, IA/3,126, Whiting, Kannianen 22-32XH; 32-154-91; t9/13; cum 431K 12/20; cum 436K 4/21; cum 451K 4/22; off line 4/22;
22175, A/AB/1,249, Whiting, Kannianen 22-32TFX; 32-154-91; t9/12; cum 238K 6/19; remains off line 12/20; back on line 2/21 but poor production; cum 238K 4/211; cum 288K 4/22; off line 4/22;
25350, IA/1,501, Whiting, Carl Kannianen 24-33H, t8/13; cum 230K 12/20; cum 235K 4/21; cum 241K 4/22; off line 4/22;
25636, IA/363, Whiting, Carl Kannianen 13-7XH, t9/13; cum 209K 12/20; cum 212K 4/21; off line 8/22; cum 219K 219K 7/22;
26340, IA/934, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31TFH, t2/14; cum 232K 12/20; cum 237K 4/21; cum 243K 11/21; off line 11/21;
28481, IA/260, Whiting, Kannianen 21-4H, middle Bakken, low background gas, t11/14; cum 270K 12/20; cum 273K 4/21; cum 285K 3/22; off line 3/22;

Evidence Of Halo Effect Among The Hess BB-Budahn Wells -- January 29, 2023

According to "the" theory, this is not supposed to happen.

Parent well; drilled back in 2014; second jump in production; hits 500K bbls crude oil cumulative milestone:

19737, 1,341, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, t1/12; cum 460K 5/19; bump in production from halo effect; cum 508K 11/22; just came back on line; another jump in production; 2K over 23 days extrapolates to 3K over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	22	2166	2201	1181	3172	3113	59
BAKKEN	10-2022	24	2235	2123	1032	3531	3472	59
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	13	372	429	107	1390	1390	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1017	1484	293	3677	3677	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	912	697	230	3280	3280	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	26	1136	1414	343	3712	3712	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1062	710	279	3963	3963	0

Update and recent production, this well was drilled back in 2014:

23454, 1,422, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-3, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 307K 5/19; cum 367K 11/22; just came back on line; halo effect;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	3843	3861	1212	5202	4523	379
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	4468	4423	1695	6615	4307	2002
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	4772	5097	2008	6863	3411	3156
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	509	277	53	524	354	135
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	933	1039	211	3486	3181	140
BAKKEN	3-2022	16	637	712	158	3069	2912	17
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1061	903	240	4418	4118	31
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1599	1596	411	6425	3443	2683
BAKKEN	12-2021	19	740	778	220	3509	3104	222
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1276	1274	308	4808	4420	88
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	763	843	225	3711	3115	286
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1139	1111	315	5532	4991	241

Update and recent production, this well was drilled back in 2014:

23456, 1,476, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-2, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 357K 5/19; cum 426K 11/22; just came back on line; definite halo effect, though moderate;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	3445	3465	1365	5311	3656	1405
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	4027	4051	2321	6943	4593	2042
BAKKEN	9-2022	18	2491	2389	1119	2959	1407	1394
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	899	949	346	3913	3554	201
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1454	1529	779	6944	6152	514
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1747	1629	527	7685	7171	247
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1844	1970	721	8333	7913	110
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1771	1686	676	7044	5903	845
BAKKEN	11-2021	21	1182	1249	470	3529	3315	10
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1373	1333	570	5905	5261	337

"Here, Hold My Oil Can" -- January 29, 2023

Link here:

Now, today, coming off confidential list this next week:

38163, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-N-150-95-0506H-1, Blue Buttes, t--; cum 146K in four months, at $70 / bbl = $10.2 million at the wellhead.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	26317	53555
10-2022	29442	49304
9-2022	32115	52951
8-2022	49801	78447
7-2022	7849	9418

And updated:

381632, F/A, Hess, BB-Budahn A-LN-150-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, t--; cum 1134K in less than four months, at $70/bbl = $9.4 milliion dollars at the wellhead.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	25774	25605	7114	47720	45645	1775
BAKKEN	10-2022	30	28244	28252	9943	48796	47094	1407
BAKKEN	9-2022	24	21952	22274	8787	35174	33847	1090
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	46164	46139	15382	72702	71339	1054
BAKKEN	7-2022	4	11805	11391	0	13147	12413	694

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Jannuary 29, 2023

Note:

the Hess BB-Budahn wells are tracked here.
the Whiting Kannianen wells are tracked here.
the CLR Kelling wells are tracked here.

The wells:

39020, conf, CLR, Rhonda 6-28H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
38916, conf, Rampart Energy, Coteau 2, Wildcat, SWSW 2-145-88, no production data,
38466, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 8-36-156N-98W-TFH, Wheelock, no production data,
38465, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 9-36-156N-98W-MBH, Wheelock, no production data,
39063, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3211-1BH, Fertile Valley,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	7525	0

39011, conf, CLR, Rhonda 5-28, Jim Creek, no production data,
38166, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-12, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	27310	57878
10-2022	28917	51686
9-2022	8645	14276
8-2022	23884	34042

31770, conf, BR, Ivan 5-1-2UTFH, Elidah, no production data,
31769, conf, BR, Ivan 4-1-29MBH, Elidah, no production data,
31768, conf, BR, Ivan 3-1-29UTFH, Elidah, no production data,
31767, conf, BR, Ivan 2-1-29MBH, Elidah, no production data,
39120, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 5-36-25-159N-100W-MBH-LL, Blue Ridge, no production data,
39072, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 3-35-26-158N-100W-MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
39033, conf, CLR, Rhonda 12-28HSL1, Jim Creek, no production data,
38167, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-9, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	9446	16179
10-2022	30691	55951
9-2022	32834	54392
8-2022	33553	46245

39073, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 2-35-26-159N-100W-MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
38582, conf, Whiting, Connor TTT 11-26-1H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	7850	8677
10-2022	12954	11263
9-2022	16679	11376
8-2022	8787	3884

39074, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 4-36-25-159N-100W-MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
39071, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Fylling 3036H, West Roth,
39034, conf, CLR, Rhonda 11-28H, Jim Creek no production data,
38409, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFHU, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	4180	3990
10-2022	3756	3852
9-2022	5413	5991
8-2022	2342	2424

38164, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-11, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	21909	42589
10-2022	22416	39196
9-2022	19641	33797
8-2022	21935	36465

39075, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 3-36-25-159N-100W-MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
39043, conf, CLR, Kelling 3-4H, Jim Creek, no production data,
39044, conf, CLR, Kelling 4-4H, Jim Creek, no production data,
38163, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-N-150-95-0506H-1, Blue Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	26317	53555
10-2022	29442	49304
9-2022	32115	52951
8-2022	49801	78447
7-2022	7849	9418

39045, conf, CLR, Kelling 5-4H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
38351, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Wilmot 8-27H, South Westhope,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2022	1448	0
11-2022	1464	0
10-2022	2062	0
9-2022	597	0
8-2022	200	0
7-2022	825	0
6-2022	821	0
5-2022	967	0
4-2022	975	0
3-2022	1006	0
2-2022	1002	0
1-2022	1156	0
12-2021	1403	0
11-2021	416	0
10-2021	2007	0
9-2021	828	0

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 29, 2023

Wednesday, February 8, 2023:
39020, conf, CLR, Rhonda 6-28H1,
38916, conf, Rampart Energy, Coteau 2,
38466, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 8-36-156N-98W-TFH,
38465, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 9-36-156N-98W-MBH,

Tuesday, February 7, 2023:
None.

Monday, February 6, 2023:
39063, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3211-1BH,
39011, conf, CLR, Rhonda 5-28,
38166, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-12,
31770, conf, BR, Ivan 5-1-2UTFH,
31769, conf, BR, Ivan 4-1-29MBH,
31768, conf, BR, Ivan 3-1-29UTFH,
31767, conf, BR, Ivan 2-1-29MBH,

Sunday, February 5, 2023:
39120, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 5-36-25-159N-100W-MBH-LL,

Saturday, February 4, 2023:
39072, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 3-35-26-158N-100W-MBH,
39033, conf, CLR, Rhonda 12-28HSL1,
38167, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-9,

Friday, February 3, 2023:
39073, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 2-35-26-159N-100W-MBH,
38582, conf, Whiting, Connor TTT 11-26-1H,

Thursday, February 2, 2023:
39074, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 4-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,
39071, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Fylling 3036H,
39034, conf, CLR, Rhonda 11-28H,
38409, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFHU,
38164, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-11,

Wednesday, February 1, 2023: 1 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 71 for the year
39075, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 3-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,

Tuesday, January 31, 2023: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
39043, conf, CLR, Kelling 3-4H,

Monday, January 30, 2023: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year
None.

Sunday, January 29, 2023: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year
39044, conf, CLR, Kelling 4-4H,
38163, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-N-150-95-0506H-1,

Saturday, January 28, 2023: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 67 for the year
39045, conf, CLR, Kelling 5-4H1,
38351, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Wilmot 8-27H,