Seven New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed; Eight Wells Released From Confidential Status; Three Permits Canceled; One Permit Renewed; XTO Reporting Some Incredible Dakota Federal Wells In Bear Den — January 3, 2024

Locator: 46451B.

GDPNow: link here. Big jump and change in direction for gross private domestic investment growth. Does gross personal consumption account for 2/3rds of GDP?

Latest estimate: 2.5 percent -- January 03, 2024. 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2. 

After this morning’s release of the ISM Manufacturing Index from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and -0.4 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 34.

WTI: up almost 4%; up $2.67; and trading at $73.05. See this note.

Seven new permits, #40419 - #40425, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (5); Liberty Resources (2);
• Fields: Siverston (McKenzie); Leaf Mountain (Burke)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for five Scott wells, NWNE 13-150-99, 
• to be sited 291 FNL and between 2300 FEL andd 2510 FEL;
• Liberty Resources has two permits for wells in SESW 15-161-93; 
• the Maple Leaf well be sited 774 FSL andd 1467 FWL; and, the Avalanche well to be sited 739 FSL and 1467 FWL;

Eight wells came off confidential list:

• Hess: two each -- BL-Herfindahl wells; BL-Domy wells; GO-Bergstrom wells; and, EN-Madisyn-LE wells;

One permit renewed:

• 30433, BR, Manchester 2C, Little Knife; Dunn County

Three permits canceled:

• CLR (2): a Kennedy permit (#37804), McKenzie County; and a Chase permit (#40254), Dunn County;
• Petroshale: a Primus permit (39965), McKenzie Couunty

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
33328, 3,257, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36H, McKenzie;
33329, 3,751, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36D, McKenzie;
39704, 1,145, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 2B; McLean;
39706, 854, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 4B; McLean;
39707, 895, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 5B; McLean;
39714, 466, Petro-Hunt, Dudlley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-1H;

The map for the XTO wells:

The wells on that pad:

• 19376: PA;
• 33342, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36F, Bear Den; note, 26,024 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 78072 bbls over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	90155	89998	64854	137734	137202	532
BAKKEN	10-2023	10	26024	25743	14540	35557	32123	3434
BAKKEN	9-2023	2	234	227	980	572	0	572

• 33055, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36A, Bear Den,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	43393	43974	28937	70479	70209	270
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	71922	71649	47541	104622	94414	10208
BAKKEN	9-2023	10	16464	16015	10564	20271	15857	4414
BAKKEN	8-2023	1	73	0	0	349	0	349

• 33341, SI/A, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36E, Bear Den;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	21	31498	32048	19661	46513	46336	177
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	63798	63708	39921	92413	83557	8856
BAKKEN	9-2023	9	19413	18844	10506	24190	19339	4851
BAKKEN	8-2023	2	47	0	1210	495	0	495

• 33343, SI/A, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36B, Bear Den; note, 30,530 bbls over 11 days extrapolates to 83,264 bbls over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	11	30530	30379	15113	40564	40406	158
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	2	381	369	995	838	0	838

• 33327, PA, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36C, Bear Den,
• 33328, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36H, Bear Den,
• 33329, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36D, Bear Den,
• 33330, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36HXE, Bear Den,
• 34942, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36CR, Bear Den, 

More on #34942:

• spud June 21, 2018 by Nabors B10;
• reached TD in 19 total drilling days on July 9, 2018
• 18' target zone; middle Bakken
• Lodgepole: 9,766 TVD
• False Bakken: 10,615 TVD
• Scallion: 10,620 TV
• Bakken: four members, two of which are organic-rich, pyritic shale, separated by a calcite-cemented silty sandstone member and a medium gray siltstone, known as the Pronghorn Member underneath. The carbonaceous Upper Bakken Shale was penetrated at 10,630 TVD, which was 2' high to Dakota Federal 42X-36C. Gas shows here ranged from 1,374 to 1,703 units against 10.45 ppg mud. The Middle Bakken was penetrated at 10,650 TVD, even to Daota Federal 42X-36C. This lithology consists of a light brown to medium gray, with occasional cream, friable to firm, sub-blocky, very fine grained silty sandstone which was calcite-cemented. Trace brown spotty oil staining was typical throughhout the lateral. Disseminated pryite was seen throughout the lateral, although nodular pyrite was periodic throughout the lateral intergranular porosity was described through the lateral (sic).

Oil Jumps -- Libyan Oil Field Shut Down -- Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Locator: 46450WTI. 

Link here. 

Protests at the main field, which were entering their third day, initially prompted workers at Sharara to shut some wells before the 300,000 b/d field was taken completely offline.

One source said that, while the export pipeline to Zawiya was closed, Sharara -- operated by a joint venture between Libya's National Oil Corp. and Equinor, OMV, Repsol and TotalEnergies -- was continuing to pump to fill its storage tanks before it had to stop.

On the evening of January 3, 2024, sources said the 70,000 b/d El-Feel field had also shut, as the protests engulfed southern Libya's oil fields. It was not clear whether the field was totally or partially closed, and whether pumping had stopped.

Readers know my feelings about Libya and price of oil. LOL.

WTI: up almost 4%; up $2.67; and trading at $73.05.

Ticker COP, CVX:

Stories Being Followed Today -- Part 2 -- January 3, 2023

Locator: 46449GEOPOLITICS.

There are two stories here, link here:

Over the last few weeks, the IDF has taken out several high-value targets. This suggests to me:
in addition to the stated goal of clearing Hamas from Gaza, Israel is using the "fog of war" to cover targeting high value targets even if they are in foreign countries outside of Gaza; and,

for the 1,400+ innocent Israelis slaughter, Israel will exact a high price by targeting high-value targets.

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Pet Peeve

Sanctuary cities saying they cannot handle the influx, measured in 100's over days and weeks, whereas Texas is "handling" an influx measured in 10's of thousands on a daily basis. 

The big question 20-something-year-old journalists never seem to address: why would undocumented tourists, many of them criminals in drug smuggling and human trafficking want to fly across the country in the first place to a sanctuary city?

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What The Civil Was All About -- Paul Krugman

Great op-ed in today's NYT. Link here.

Even before Krugman's article, I was amazed by how tone-deaf Nikki Haley was answering that question. On some level she may have been somewhat correct, but it would have required a PhD thesis to make the point, argue the point, and Nikki Haley's audience is not made up of PhDs. Regardless whatever the "reason," or the "cause," the fact remains it was insurrection, pure and simple.

Krugman's op-ed led to four more great essays:

• The southernification of rural America.
• Why the South fell behind.
• The suppressed history of Southern Unionists.
• Myths about the Lost Cause. Behind a paywall, see also this YouTube video.
  

Honda Mileage -- January 3, 20

Locator: 46448MILEAGE.

2012 Honda Civic, bought in late 2011:

 
Annual mileage:

• 125,981 - 123,748 = 2,233 miles

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The Book Page

The books this week:

• Penelope Fitzgerald: A Life, Hermione Lee, c. 2013.
• The Merchant of Venice, William Shakespeare, Literary Companion Series, c. 2000.
• The Merchant of Venice, William Shakespeare, The Everyman Shakespeare, c. 1991.

The notes for these books will be posted elsewhere.

Chart Of The Day -- Share Of Consumer Spending -- January 3, 2023

Locator: 46447ECON.

About three years ago it finally dawned on me why I would see all those 70+ men (and women) driving brand new luxury cars -- particularly Cadillacs.

Then I figured it out. Once my wife started receiving her social security check, it all became clear. And now, RMDs. 

Link here.

And this is why Amazon Prime Video will be the big winner when it comes to streaming. More on that later, perhaps.

And from the blog:

My favorite chart, link here.

I can pretty much assume that most of that MMF is held by 70+ folks. Or at least 55+ folks.

Stories Being Followed Today -- Part 1 -- January 3, 2023

Locator: 46446B.

Eight stories being followed today:

• EVs (again): see below.
  
• LNG / natural gas: pending.
  
• US crude oil production, 2023: pending.
  
• Canada, western shale, top oil and gas wells: pending.
  
• road to Germany: see below.
  
• respiratory illnesses, winter, US: see below.
  
• personal investing: pending 
• pet peeve: pending.
  

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EVs

Tickers (graphics at bottom of page):

• RIVN: down another 6% today
• LCID: down another 3% today
• EVGO (fast charging network): down another 6% today
• F: down almost 3% today
• GM: down 2.5% today

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Respiratory Illnesses, Winter, US

You can't stop a meme.  

Link here. Where's the data? And seasonal flu? 

Any comment on vaccination rate for RSV, pneumonia, Covid, "seasonal flu"? Nope.

The article: typical winter in California. Except for the hysteria.

It's almost as if 20-something journalists have never linked respiratory illnesses with winter.

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The Road To Germany

A constant theme on the blog.

Link here.

Germany is to see the least amount of growth out of all Eurozone countries with an expected increase of 0.8 percent, according to European Commission expectations.

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EV Tickers Today

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Through Friday -- January 3, 2023

Locator: 46445B.

Eight stories being followed today:

• EVs (again): pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
  
• LNG / natural gas: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
• Canada, western shale, top oil and gas wells: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
• road to Germany: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
• respiratory illnesses, winter, US: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
• personal investing: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.
• gift list ideas, for next Christmas: pending. Will be posted elsewhere.

WMB: to acquire Gulf Coast natural gas storage assets for $2 billion. Acquisition from an affiliate of Hartree Partners LP. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.69 after dropping below $70 earlier this morning.

Friday, January 5, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year
None.

Thursday, January 4, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year
None.

Wednesday, January 3, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: more on what happens behind the scenes in gas pipeline rate cases.

Folks not directly involved in the FERC’s rate-setting process for interstate gas pipelines may think it’s a largely mechanical — and painfully boring — activity. But the process is actually often incredibly dynamic, with a lot of give-and-take among pipeline representatives, pipeline customers and FERC staffers, all aimed at reaching an agreement on rates that everyone involved can live with. We recently explained the “formal process” and (informal, confidential) “settlement process” that usually play out along parallel tracks. In today’s RBN blog, we expand on our look at the rate-setting process for gas pipelines with a few more nuances of how negotiated resolution really works.