Update On DUCS -- Rystad Energy, CLR -- August 5, 2016

This Rystad Energy article is really pretty cool for a couple of reasons. First, the linked article brings us up to date on DUCs -- the linked article was posted yesterday. Second, it shows again how the North Dakota Industrial Commission took the lead when conditions changes. From the linked article:

By looking at the intentionally postponed (abnormal) part of DUC inventory, Rystad Energy observes that all major liquid basins are exposed to completion delays.

Bakken was the first play where completion delays became visible already in early 2015.

Since then, the abnormal inventory in this play has increased from 150 to 600 wells, thanks to the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s incentive to extend completion delay allowance from 12 to 24 months.

The Eagle Ford and the Permian Basin followed the trend in 2H15 and more than 600 abnormal DUCs have been observed in these plays recently.

At the linked article, note the graphic.

In fact, it appears there may have been a couple of DUCs identified for wells that came off the confidential list in 4Q14, the same quarter that Saudi announced the "surge."

From CLR's 2Q16 conference call:

Our gross operated DUC count in the Bakken has grown to approximately 165 wells and is expected to grow to approximately 190 gross operated DUCs at year end 2016. These DUCs represent a high-graded inventory with an average EUR of approximately 850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per well. We view these DUCs as oil in the bank, and they represent the most cost-effective barrels we have in the company's inventory.

On a cost-forward basis of $3 million to $3.5 million per well, these DUCs should deliver over 100% rate of return at $45 per barrel WTI and $2.50 per million cubic feet of gas.

We plan to continue to build our DUC inventory, and we'll begin completing DUCs as supply and demand rebounce and commodity prices improve.

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Nevada Solar Panels And Net Metering -- Update

From Ecowatch.com:

The Nevada Supreme Court unanimously ruled against a ballot referendum, which could have rolled back a controversial December 2015 regulator decision that lowered payments to rooftop solar customers. The ruling means that the referendum will not be voted on by the public in November.

Several story lines in that article:

• the journalist framed this as a Warren Buffett - Elon Musk win-lose story (go to linked story)
• this was reported in a "green" media outlet
• representative government vs pure democracy
• the "real" winners are the 99% of Nevadans who don't have solar panels and would have been forced to subsidize inefficient, very costly, nondispatchable solar energy
• this provides a precedent for other states to at least consider

California Wind Farm Investors Feel A Huge Sucking Wind -- February 15, 2016

I talked about this wind farm back on July 24, 2011. It is amazing what goes around, comes around.

Now, The Miami Herald is reporting that investors in this wind farm may be on the hook for millions in "pay-back:" Investors in huge California wind farm might end up repaying federal subsidies.

A giant wind farm in California’s southern San Joaquin Valley is blowing gusts through a faraway federal court, with tens of millions of dollars potentially up in the air.

Some of the wind farm’s early investors want more than $200 million in additional subsidies that they say the federal government owes them. Obama administration officials, in turn, argue that the government paid $59 million too much. This week, a judge sharpened the administration’s side of the sword, agreeing that the U.S. can try to retrieve some of the taxpayer dollars paid.

U.S. Court of Federal Claims Judge Thomas C. Wheeler said in a decision Monday that the Treasury Department could counter the claims from investors in the Alta Wind project, the largest wind farm in the United States.

The wind farm investors, Wheeler wrote, “have no guarantee of keeping the amounts that Treasury paid them.” He noted that “a refund always was a possibility given a proper understanding of the issues.” As a result, an upcoming trial will determine who owes money to whom.

Wheeler’s ruling seems an unexpected turn for the Alta Wind Facility, located in the Tehachapi Mountains of Kern County. When some of the Alta Wind investors first started suing in 2013 to get a bigger share of federal money, the possibility that they could be the ones owing $59 million did not appear to be on the table.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article59876436.html#storylink=cpy

Don't mess around with Jim, don't spit into the wind, I came to get my money back:

Don't Mess Around With Jim, Jim Croce

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Nevada Solar

Meanwhile over in Nevada, regulators are thinking of phasing in rate increases over 12 years rather than over 4 years.

The Nevada Public Utilities Commission has voted to phase in higher rates for rooftop solar customers over a longer period of time than previously approved.

Regulators voted 3-0 on Friday to implement the new rates over 12 years, rather than four years.

Commissioners approved new rates in December for customers who use net metering, or sell excess energy from their solar panels back to the utility.

Regulators say the rates better reflect the declining cost of solar power and phase out a subsidy traditional energy customers pay to support a much-smaller group of rooftop solar customers.

Solar customers say it means their panels will take years more to pay off. Solar companies have responded by laying off employees and staging large protests outside PUC meetings.

And the vote wasn't even close: 3 - 0.

Great Jobs Report Coming Out Today -- January 7, 2016

Natural gas fill rate (a dynamic link): a remarkable -113. Despite the "remarkable" draw, US stores of natural gas still exceed the maximum reported in the past five years at this same point in time.

Active rigs:

	1/7/2016	01/07/2015	01/07/2014	01/07/2013	01/07/2012
Active Rigs	57	166	189	180	200

RBN Energy: It’s Warm Outside – But Natural Gas Demand Has Some Underlying Growth This Winter.

Jobs: link here --

US initial jobless claims is at a current level of 277,000, a decrease of 10,000 or 3.48% from last week. This is a decrease of 16,000 or 5.46% from last year and is lower than the long term average of 36,0203.

The 4-week moving average was 275,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,000.

Meanwhile, job growth in December (2015) "ballooned." From USNews:

December was not a good month for manufacturing. But job creation in most other industries helped December become the best month for employment growth throughout 2015, according to a preliminary private-sector jobs report.

The ADP National Employment Report, which was released Wednesday and generally precedes the government's more intensive jobs and unemployment numbers to be released Friday, showed U.S. payrolls ballooned by 257,000 positions last month.

That makes December the best month for job gains since Dec. 2014.

California's economy looks stronger than ever. From the Los Angeles Times:

The governor’s budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 is widely expected to project another dose of growth in tax revenues, as recent estimates show the California economy still growing and personal income taxes -- the main source of state spending -- at better than expected levels.

A November report from the Legislature’s fiscal analysts projected another strong year of tax revenues, and the potential of a $7.2 billion rainy-day budget reserve by 2017. Brown has consistently demanded a more fiscally cautious plan than Democratic legislative leaders, who have urged more spending on health and human services programs that were cut back during the depth of the recession.

 Minnesota's economy is apparently doing well. From an old story, back in mid-2015, as reported at CNBC:

Minnesota is America's Top State for Business in 2015, reaching the pinnacle of success by way of a much different route than our eight previous winners.

Minnesota scores 1,584 out of a possible 2,500 points, ranking in the top half for all but two of our 10 categories of competitiveness. But what may be most instructive are the categories where Minnesota does not do well. Both involve cost.

Indeed, the birthplace of Spam, Scotch Tape and the supercomputer marks a new first this year. Never since we began rating the states in 2007 has a high-tax, high-wage, union-friendly state made it to the top of our rankings. But Minnesota does so well in so many other areas—like education and quality of life—that its cost disadvantages fade away.

And for those worried about Obama's executive action on "gun control" (an oxymoron in Baltimore), the reports coming out of Texas:

• they are having no adverse effect on gun sales or gun classes in Texas (both continue to increase); if anything gun sales and classes will increase; number of women enrolled in gun glasses has increased 300% over the past year or so
• the "new" Obama directives are already found in ATF rules and regulations
• in Texas, the "gun show loophole" is a myth; it was corrected years ago
• "open carry law" went into effect without incident

SolarCity to "quit" Nevada. The Denverpost.com reports:

Elon Musk's SolarCity Corp. plans to eliminate more than 550 jobs in Nevada, most of its employees in the state, after regulators approved new utility fees on solar rooftops.

The biggest U.S. rooftop solar provider will relocate some employees to "business-friendly" states that don't impose similar charges, San Mateo, CA-based SolarCity said in a statement Wednesday.

This is the first significant cut in staffing for SolarCity, which has grown rapidly in recent years. Surging demand for rooftop power has led to friction between companies that install and operate the systems and traditional utilities, which see them as a threat to revenue.

SolarCity announced plans to stop sales and installation in Nevada on December 23, 2015, a day after regulators approved changes to the state's net-metering program, one of the main incentives for rooftop solar power.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Thank goodness for Matt Drudge. Had it not been for the Drudge Report, I probably would not have seen this story: black pudding hailed as a "superfood" in Britain.

Made out of pig's blood, pork fat and oatmeal, black pudding might seem an unlikely candidate for the shelves of Britain's health food aisles.

But the breakfast staple, considered a delicacy in northwest England and the west Midlands, is the surprise inclusion on a list of superfoods to watch in 2016 produced by MuscleFood, a nutritional food retailer.

The crumbly blood sausage, traditionally served with hearty favourites like bacon and fried egg, contains high levels of protein, iron, calcium and zinc. "2015 saw healthy eating reach a new level and this year we predict this trend is only going to get bigger," British media quoted Darren Beale of MuscleFood as saying. 

In the picture at the link you will see store signs advertising "Bury Black Pudding." From wiki:

n the United Kingdom, black pudding is considered a delicacy in the Black Country, the West Midlands, Stornoway, the North West, and especially in Lancashire (in towns such as Bury), where it is traditionally boiled and served with malt vinegar out of paper wrapping.

The Stornoway black pudding, made on the Western Isles of Scotland, has been granted Protected Geographical Indicator of Origin status.

It's very possible I had Stornoway black pudding, but I do not recall.