Looks Like Crime May Not Be As Bad in the Bakken As Some Are Suggesting

This story was all over the news during the past few weeks: how a man hitchhiking to the Bakken in search of a job, and writing memoirs on "human kindness," claimed to have been shot.

It turns out he has confessed to shooting himself.

Dolin had claimed he was hitchhiking along U.S. Highway 2 west of Glasgow on Saturday when the driver of a maroon pickup pulled to a stop and shot him in the upper arm with no provocation.

Authorities later arrested Lloyd Christopher Danielson III, 52, and charged him with felony assault.

That charge was dropped Thursday, although Danielson remained in custody, accused of being under the influence of drugs or alcohol when he was arrested.

Meier indicated that Danielson denied any role in shooting after he was put into custody.

North Dakota's Unemployment Rate Nears All-Time Record

Link to InsideClimate News/Dickinson Press:

North Dakota’s not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 2.7 percent in May, but even that isn’t a record low for the state.

The lowest May rate in at least 25 years occurred in 2001 when it was 2.3 percent, said Michael Ziesch, manager of Job Service North Dakota’s Labor Market Information Center.

I assume the slight rise in unemployment (0.4 percent) in May, 2012, compared to May, 2001, has to do with the loss of some unspecified green energy jobs. 

Seriously: if the delta is accurate (and with 0.4 percent (4/1000) I am not sure that is reproducible or statistically significant), it most likely is due to fact more folks showing up in North Dakota looking for a job are using the state's employment services.

Slawson: Drilling the Upper Bakken Shale

Again, this is a very tantalizing story sent to me by a reader.  This is a continuation of a discussion that began here.

I am not a geologist, but this is what I think "they" are saying.

The source rock for the Bakken Pool (which includes the Bakken formations and the Three Forks formations) is the upper Bakken formation and the upper Bakken formation.

The oil migrates from this source rock into tight reservoirs: the middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks.

The drillers in the current Bakken boom are concentrating on the two reservoirs: the middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks.

Some argue that the upper and the lower Bakken are both source rock and reservoirs. At the link, the writer discusses the "only" operator who is targeting the source rock as a payzone: Slawson.

There are two important data points according to the geologist at the linked article:

• 90 - 95 percent of the oil in the source rock has not migrated to the tight shale that current operators are targeting
• 5 - 10% of the oil in the source rock is recoverable

For comparison: it is generally accepted that the operators are currently recovering 3 to 15% of the original oil in place (OOIP). The lower, more conservative figures come from government agencies; the upper figures come from some of the operators in the Bakken. I suppose the real answer is somewhere in the middle, though it certainly appears that "best practices" could result in 10% recovery of OOIP.

If the geologist is correct, that 90 - 95 of the "Bakken" oil is still in source rock (which has not been targeted for the most part) and that 5 - 10% is recoverable, it does not take an advanced degree in mathematics to see that the amount of oil that could be recovered from the Williston Basin defies one's wildest imaginations.

As noted above, one operator (Slawson) is targeting source rock. It is my understanding that the technology does not exist or the lack of understanding of how to use existing technology precludes successful wells targeting the source rock.

So the proof will be in the pudding.

According to the linked article, one company is drilling into source rock, the upper Bakken: Slawson.

Slawson says they are producing "some oil" from the source rock (upper Bakken) in three fields, most notably, for me, Squaw Gap in McKenzie County. They say the first Squaw Gap wells were drilled and/or completed in 2007-8 permits, so I will have to go back and check on how those wells are doing. And regardless of how they are doing, one will have to determine if there horizontals are in the upper Bakken or the middle Bakken (it may not be all that easy; I don't know).

In addition, the linked article mentions that permits for six new Squaw Gap wells were issued in mid-April of this year. 

Could There Be A Chance That Bakken-Centric Companies Are Undervalued?

I posted this earlier:

Second section, front page: the beginning of a long article on Petrohawk. Fascinating. This story alone is worth the price of the newspaper today. Petrohawk is credited with discovering two of the bigger fields in Texas' Eagle Ford, and paid about $400/acre. MRO is in an Eagle Ford deal, now, in which it is said is worth $44,000/acre.  (For Bakken folks, the better Bakken is certainly as good as, if not better, than the Eagle Ford, on an acres-to-acres comparison. I think in Whiting's corporate presentation they say the average price they paid for their Bakken property is under $800/acre. I could be wrong on that, and the average price will melt up as Whiting acquires more Bakken property.) Do you think some of the Bakken-centric companies are undervalued? [Note: Don says that in a recent Whiting presentation, Whiting acquired its Bakken acreage at an average price of $479/acre.]

This is too big a story and too interesting to be lost: the link to the original story is here.

Saudi Crown Prince Dies; In His Late 70's; Said to Be a Bit of a Conservative

Link here to LA Times.

Nayef had a reputation for being a hard-liner and a conservative. He was believed to be closer than many of his brothers to the powerful Wahhabi religious establishment that gives legitimacy to the royal family, and he at times worked to give a freer hand to the religious police who enforce strict social rules.

Well, that changes things.

*************

This post needs a bit of music.

Dying Day, Brandi Carlile

Eagle Ford: $44,000/Acre -- WSJ Wrap-Up -- Do You Think Some Bakken-Centric Companies Are Undervalued?

Third section, front page: full-page spread on the "nonna" state in Europe:

The reliance on nonni in Italy and Spain creates stronger family ties -- but it also hampers economic growth, as people don't move where the jobs are.

Wow, the third section is awesome: filled with book reviews, a bit of fine art, and almost no ads. There is a huge book review on the President, growing up. There's a  photo of him when he turned 19; he was attending Occidental College in Los Angeles, and then one of him ten years later at Harvard as the editor of the Harvard Law Review.

The fourth section (yes, I pulled the paper apart, out of order, usually I start with fourth section and move forward): food, fashion, travel. A whole page is devoted to beachwear -- the Brazilian blowout -- confirms my thoughts expressed in an earlier blog about Petrobras. (Yes, I think "oil" all the time.)

Second section, front page: the beginning of a long article on Petrohawk. Fascinating. This story alone is worth the price of the newspaper today. Petrohawk is credited with discovering two of the bigger fields in Texas' Eagle Ford, and paid about $400/acre. MRO is in an Eagle Ford deal, now, in which it is said is worth $44,000/acre.  (For Bakken folks, the better Bakken is certainly as good as, if not better, than the Eagle Ford, on an acres-to-acres comparison. I think in Whiting's corporate presentation they say the average price they paid for their Bakken property is under $800/acre. I could be wrong on that, and the average price will melt up as Whiting acquires more Bakken property.) Do you think some of the Bakken-centric companies are undervalued?

Page B5: "China's Cotton Order Jolts Market." I saw this yesterday. Huge story. I can connect the dots back to the Bakken but have to keep moving if I want to get through the paper before soccer.

Page B7: the page is covered with graphics of iPads floating in space calling attention to an article on "money" apps in the cloud. (Speaking of clouds, it is absolutely gorgeous today in Belmont, west of Boston; not a cloud in the sky; perfect for soccer in less than an hour.)

Front page: nice story on Egypt.

The generals who have ruled Egypt since Mr Mubarak relinquished power on Feb 11, 2011, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, were intially dismissed as bumbling neophytes struggling for a grasp on national politics. They now appear as master tacticians who shrewdly derailed a movement that had seemed unstoppable. 

Page 3, again as usual, the second best news page in the paper. First, "Reckless Riders Spur Backlash: Fatal Collision in San Francisco Leads to Manslaughter Charges Against Cyclist."

Below that: "EPA Seeks Tighter Standard on Soot." Santa Claus wins. API disagrees with EPA on this one. I am shocked!

Ms McCarthy added that 99% of US counties are on track to comply with the new standards by 2020, assuming that a slate of other EPA rules currently in the pipeline are enacted by then. Only six counties nationwide, including two in California, would not be in compliance with the new proposed rules, she said.

The Bush standard: 15 micrograms/cubic meter; the Obama standard: 12 - 13 micrograms/cubic meter. It's going to take a "slate of other EPA rules to get from 15 to 12 - 13. Sounds like same metrics as efforts to slow global warming, estimated to be 0.6 degree rise every century.

I'm not sure why the waffling between 12 and 13. I guess it depends on how much of the "slate" is enacted.

Page A7: one of Greece's biggest employers, Carrefour SA (the Wal-Mart of Europe; in fact, Carrefour is the world's second largest retailer after Wal-Mart) is pulling out of Greece. It will be shuttering 800 stores (or at least taking its name off 800 stores; talk about voting with one's feet. No one can predict where this Grecian debacle will end but volumes could be written over this story (Carrefour leaving Greece); one wonders how many other enterprises are leaving. I wonder if Carrefour's taxes will be missed by the government. And that's just one of the stories. If each store employed 100 employees --> 100 employees x 800 stores: 80,000 x 4 family members, 320,000 folks affected. That's a lot of folks on the street demonstrating, and a lot of first-time claims benefits.

And the last page of section one: a wrap-up of the first two days of the US Open (golf). Incredible.

Energy Links at Independent Stock Analysis

Link to ISA here.

I haven't read it yet, but the first story I will check out is the one in which the president says he has created thousands of jobs in green energy: the lobbyists in Washington.  Actually, I don't know if he said "thousands" because I haven't read the article yet, but we'll see.