Random Look At Petro Harvester -- May 30, 2018

In today's daily activity report, Petro Harvester was awarded six permits. I haven't seen Petro Harvester in awhile (or if I have, I've forgotten).

My notes suggest that Petro Harvester entered North Dakota back in early 2011 focusing on Madison wells, I believe.

Other posts regarding Petro Harvester:

• the Kuroki field update, first note, March 20, 2010
• Petro Harvester acquires Sagebrush Madison wells in Bottineau, April 7, 2011
• random update on a Petro Harvester Madison well along the North Dakota - Canadian border, December 17, 2016 
• update on the Petro Harvester wells along the Canadian - North Dakota border, December 29, 2016
• more on the Petro Harvester wells along the Canadian border, December 30, 2016 
• watch for increased activity targeting the Madison formation, August 12, 2017
• a Madison well is completed, Petro Harvester STR1, November 12, 2017

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Notes to the Granddaughters

See Magic: The Gathering.

Our oldest granddaughter introduced me to Magic: The Gathering earlier this evening. I'm hooked. So hooked.

She showed me her card deck. I was impressed.

Her most treasured card cost her $13. She does not play with it -- yet. She needs a "card protector" before she will add it to the deck.

According to the linked wiki entry: "Certain Magic cards can be valuable due to their rarity and utility in game play, with prices ranging from a few cents to thousands of dollars."

And then this quote from the wiki entry:

"By combining the collecting and trading elements of baseball cards with the fantasy play dynamics of roleplaying games, Magic created a whole new genre of product that changed our industry forever."

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Another Note to the Granddaughters

Our middle granddaughter was in Denver, CO, this past weekend, playing in the regional Real CO Cup (ladies soccer). Teams from all over the west/southwest competed. For her ladies, the "2006" group, her team took first place!

According to her coach tonight, her team has jumped up to "premier status" ranking tier with a current ranking of 6th.

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And Yet Another Note to the Granddaughters

Meanwhile, our youngest granddaughter, who will turn four later this summer, is now jumping off the low board in the swimming pool and swimming to the edge of the pool on her own. She did that for the first time earlier this evening. 

Nine New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 30, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.14↑↑	5/30/2018	05/30/2017	05/30/2016	05/30/2015	05/30/2014
Active Rigs	62	50	29	80	188

Nine new permits:

• Operators: Petro Harvester (6), Lime Rock Resources, Whiting, SlawsonFields: Portal (Burke County); Dimond (B
• urke County); Stockyard Creek (Williams County); Big Bend (Mountrail)Comments: just like "old times" -- almost double-digit 
• number of new permits; multiple operators; Tier 3 / Tier 4 locations?

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:

• 32125, SI/A, CLR, Burr Federal 1-26H1, Sanish, 4 sections,

Belated Happy Birthday! -- May 30, 2018

Wow, am I upset! A reader reminded me.

Happy birthday, Ms Peggy Lee, born May 26, 1920, in Jamestown, ND.

It's somewhat ironic and/or coincidental: on my recent trip to Williston, ND, Peggy Lee was featured fairly often on one of the music stations on Sirius XM. Perhaps because I was traveling on her birthday. I don't know.

Why Don't You Do Right? Peggy Lee

Stop The Press! Breaking News! That Maddow Surge? Steamrolled -- Forbes -- May 30, 2018

From Forbes: Fox News steamrolls cable news competition ratings.

What happened to the rise of MSNBC? After showing historic growth--and a few months in 2017 when Rachel Maddow took the title of most-watched host in all of cable news, beating Fox News Channel's Sean Hannity--the just-released results of the May ratings period look very familiar: Fox News won--everything.

In ratings data released Wednesday by Nielsen Media Research, FNC extended its run of consecutive months at number one to a staggering 197, while building hitting another impressive milestone: Fox News Channel has now beaten every other network in basic cable for 23 months straight, based on total day ratings, with an average total day audience in May of 1.4 million viewers.

Let's break it down.

• prime time
• Fox News destroyed its competition
• Fox News: 2.381 million viewers
• MSNBC: 1.384 million 
• CNN: 835,000
• most coveted demographic, those aged 25 - 54
• FNC: clear victory
• FNC: 461,000
• MSNBC: 329,000
• CNN: 265,000
• 15 top cable shows
• Fox: 10 of those 15 shows
• Hannity outpaced every show in basic cable (except NBA playoffs)
• Hannity: 2.627 million
• Tucker Carlson Tonight: 2.617 million
• The Ingraham Angle: 2.617 million
• The Five: 2.153 million
• millennials have stopped watching cable
• May, 2018: cable news networks were down overall except for Fox News
• most important demographic, those aged 25 - 54 years of age
• Fox News grew 6%
• CNN: fell a full 25%
• Fox News: up slightly (+2%)
• MSNBC; dropped significantly (-21%)
• CNN dropped by more than a third (-34%)

OPEC Blinks; WTI Rises; Energy Stocks Surge -- May 30, 2018

Link here. OPEC, non-OPEC sticking ot oil pact but may raise output if needed.

• Saudi needs $88 oil
• Saudi trial balloon: will increase production by one million bopd
• WTI/Brent plummets
• Saudi clarifies: will increase production if "needed"; LOL 
• will keep current production through end of 2018; gradual adjustments after that
• repeat: Saudi needs $88 oil

Weekly crude oil inventories, API data; released at 4:30 p.m. CDT --

• US crude oil inventories increased by 1.001 million bbls

Agenda For June, 2018, Hearing Dockets Posted -- May 30, 2018

The NDIC hearing dockets for June, 2018, have been posted. Link here.

Dockets are posted at the NDIC site here.

Dockets are tracked here. 

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Friday, June 1, 2018
 

A single case; continuation; notice to dismiss.

Tuesday, June, 12, 2018

Only three cases total --

• 26690, Resonance Exploration, Westhope Field, request for unitization of the Westhope-Spearfish/Madison Unit Area, Bottineau County
• 26691, Resonance Exploration, confirm plan of unitization for the Westhope-Spearfish/Madison Area, Bottineau County
• 26692, Resonance Exploration, request permit for underground injection of fluids into the unitized formation of the Westhope-Spearfish/Madison Unit, Bottineau County

Wednesday, June 27, 2018 (5 pages)
 

• 26695, NDIC, terminate, reduce, or other appropriate action regarding the Flat Lake East-Ratcliffe Unit, Divide County
• 2696, NDIC, terminate, reduce, or other appropriate action regarding Subdivision-Lodgepole Unit, Stark County
• 26697, Hess, Wheelock and/or Ray-Bakken; amend; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Williams County
• 26698, Hess, Dollar Joe-Bakken, amend; establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each; Williams County
• 26699, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 2 wells; Mountrail
• 26700, Oasis, Squires-Bakken; amend; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams 
• 26701, True Oil, Red Wing Creek-Madison, amend, establish an 800-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County
• 26702, Crescent Point Energy, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken; complete two wells with exception to the rules, Williams County
• 26703, Crescent Point Energy, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken; completed one well with exception to the rules; Williams County
• 26704, Whiting, commingling
• 26705, Whiting, commingling
• 26706, Whiting, commingling
• 26707, Whiting, SWD
• 26708, Hess, pooling
• 26709, Hess, pooling
• 26710, Hess, pooling
• 26711, BR, Sand Creek-Bakken, amend, two wells on a 2560-acre unit; McKenzie
• 26712, BR, commingling
• 26713, Oasis, SWD
• 26714, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, i) 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Dunn County; sections 26/35-146-94; and, sections 25/36-146-94;

Tuesday, June, 28, 2018 (nine pages)

• 26715, NDIC, terminate, reduce, or other appropriate action regarding Coyote Creek-Red River Unit, Bowman County;
• 26716, CLR, commingling
• 26717, CLR, Brooklyn-Bakken, amend; 1) terminate an existing 2560-acre unit; instead, ten wells on two existing 1280-acre units; sections 16/21-155-98; and, sections 28/33-155-98; ii)  terminate an existing 5120-acre unit, and instead create and establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on each; iii) create and establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; iv) create and establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 4 section line wells; Williams County
• 26718, CLR, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; 1 well each; Williams
• 26719, CLR, Banks-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wels; Williams, McKenzie counties
• 26720, CLR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, amend; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie Count
• 26721, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, amend; establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
• 26722, Denbury Onshore, amend rules, so to be able to create and establish a spacing/drilling unit across state (Montana and North Dakota) state lines; Bowman County, Fallon County, Montana; this would be within the boundaries of  Cedar Creek Anticline No 8-B Unit; Mission Canyon Formation, horizontal well;
• 26723, Denbury Onshore, amend rules, so to be able to create and establish a spacing/drilling unit across state (Montana and North Dakota) state lines; Bowman County, Fallon County, Montana; this would be within the boundaries of  Cedar Creek Anticline No 8-B Unit; Mission Canyon Formation; horizontal well;
• 26724, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Williams County
• 26725, Slawson, asking for an order allowing for the vapor pressure testing of crude oil from four central locations rather than at each well site for any existing and future wells operated by Slawson in the Big Bend-Bakken pool, McKenzie, Mountrail 
• 26726, Statoil, Todd Field, multiple wells, Williams County
• 26727, Liberty Resources, Gros Ventre-Bakken; create two 1920-acre units; 8 wells on each; Burke County;
• 26728, XTO, Capa-Bakken, amend; i) establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; 8 wells each; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; one well; Williams
• 26729, XTO, Alkali Creek-Bakken; amend; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; 8 wells on the unit; Williams 
• 26730, XTO, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, amend; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Williams
• 26731, Freedom Energy D LLC, to establish an approximate 320-acre unit; two vertical and/or directional wells for the Lodgepole formation; N/2 of section 16-139-96; Stark County
• 26732, CLR, pooling
• 26733, CLR, pooling
• 36734, CLR, pooling
• 36735, CLR, pooling
• 26736, CLR, pooling
• 26737, CLR, pooling
• 36738, CLR, pooling
• 26739, CLR, pooling
• 26740, CLR, pooling
• 26741, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken; 18 wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 21/28/33-147-96 and section 4-146-96; Dunn
• 26742, Nine Point Energy, pooling
• 26743, Liberty Resources, pooling
• 26744, Liberty Resources, pooling
• 26745, Sinclair Oil, risk penalty legalese
• 26746, Buckhorn SWD
• 26747, PetroShale (US); pooling
• 26748, NGL  Water Solutions SWD

Rueing? Maybe Not -- May 30, 2018

I've updated the original post; the update is in red bold/red:

Rueing: my hunch is that Justin Trudeau will rue the day he ever got involved with the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline project. There are bigger issues at play than what folks are talking about. The interesting thing: when you read the wiki entry regarding the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project one really wonders why Trudeau got involved at all. Either the wiki entry is really wrong, or Trudeau was really manipulated by the Canadian oil industry. I'm thinking the latter. President Obama would have never done this. Suggests that Trudeau is very, very naive.

[Update, about an hour later: I may be the one that is very, very naive. New data suggests this pipeline is going to be built sooner than later, and Native Americans may likely lead the charge -- to get the pipeline done. You bet your sweet bippy.]

Links to follow.  

More rueing: it appears that George Soros may have been hit really, really hard yesterday -- betting on the wrong side of the market. Links to follow. Maybe. 

************************************

Note for the Granddaughters

Middle granddaughter co-wrote short one-act play that was selected to compete at recent "fashion show." An interesting concept: instead of a "runway" to show off fashion clothing, the "models" participated in an original, one-act play. I was quite impressed. 

 

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+20 -- May 30, 2018

Alibaba: This is pretty funny. I don't know if I ever mentioned the word "Alibaba" on the blog until yesterday. Now, today, from Fortune, "China now has two of the top ten most valuable brands in the world for the first time." And they are ... first it was, Tencent. And, now, Alibaba has joined the list. Pretty coincidental.

T+20: it's been twenty days since Trump tore up the Obama deal to go easy on Iran and somehow the world has survived.

Rueing: my hunch is that Justin Trudeau will rue the day he ever got involved with the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline project. There are bigger issues at play than what folks are talking about. The interesting thing: when you read the wiki entry regarding the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project one really wonders why Trudeau got involved at all. Either the wiki entry is really wrong, or Trudeau was really manipulated by the Canadian oil industry. I'm thinking the latter. President Obama would have never done this. Suggests that Trudeau is very, very naive. [Update, about an hour later: I may be the one that is very, very naive. New data suggests this pipeline is going to be built sooner than later, and Native Americans may likely lead the charge -- to get the pipeline done. You bet your sweet bippy.]

DAPL: I assume US District Judge James Boasberg is watching this with great interest. He should feel very, very good that he, Judge Boasberg, threaded the needle quite nicely, at least from my point of view. Standing Rock paid a huge price getting "used" by international faux environmentalists.

Not good. For Mexico, this is not good. Not related: 100,000 folks have been arrested crossing the US southern border in the past two months. From the first link:

Mexican left-leaning presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has consolidated his lead over his nearest rival, surpassing the 50 percent mark for the first time with a month to go before July 1 presidential election.

The markets:

• WTI surges, up over 2%, now trading above $68 again
• Dow: up 240 points
• TSLA: up 1%
• UNP: up almost 2%
• EOG: up almost 3%
• NOG: up over 5% -- whoo-hoo!
• SRE: down half-a-percent
• PLUG: under a buck/share; up about half-a-percent
• PLM: 80 cents/share; flat 
• XRP-USD: 58 cents/share; down over 2%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

For Faux Environmentalists, Reality Sucks -- Financial Times -- May 30, 2018

Link here:

Governments across the world face a nearly $100-billioin shortfall in fuel taxes by 2030 if they aggressively pursue policies to encourage electric vehicle usage as part of a global push towards cleaner energies for road transportation. 

Under the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious scenario, in which 30 per cent of new car and truck sales are electric by 2030, governments are set to forgo $92 billion in revenues from duties on road fuels. 

The figure, in the IEA’s annual report on electric vehicles, implies electricity displacing almost 4.8m barrels a day of petrol and diesel, even though this is only 5 per cent of current global oil demand, meaning the fossil fuel will still retain its role as the global transportation fuel for years to come.

And more:

Under a more conservative outlook that takes into account current government policies, lost revenue from fuel taxes is expected to reach $47bn in 2030, even as electricity displaces just 2.6m b/d of petrol and diesel. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- May 30, 2018

I don't know if anyone is paying attention but there was a sudden change in the Bakken during the past week or so. Every weekend, I post the wells that will be coming off the confidential list the following week. For the past year or so, there was an average of 1.75 wells coming off the confidential list each day. This week, the average jumped to 4.25 wells coming off the confidential list each day. At least that's my perception: I did not do a real arithmetic check but I bet I'm not too far off.

The second thing I noticed, all of a sudden fewer wells were going to DUC status after being released from the confidential list. Today, for example, not one DUC, of the five wells coming off the confidential list. I can't recall the last time there were no DUCs on a list of five wells coming off the confidential list.

Third, the IPs are not monsters, but they are incredibly consistent, all representing very good wells.

Fourth: to date, we haven't seen a drop in the number of DUCs or inactive wells on the monthly Director's Cut. I expect to see the number of DUCs dropping but it's possible the number of inactive wells will stay steady or possibly even increase. More and more wells (because there are more and more wells) are going to inactive status when new wells are being fracked.

We won't know until August whether June production data will hit an all-time record, but Lynn Helms has forecast that. Although we won't get the official "preliminary" data until August and the official "final" data until September for the June production numbers, we will get very good estimates by mid-June. Stay tuned.

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Flashback

Deficits Don't Matter

A simple google search reminds us the Paul Krugman, a really, really smart guy, argued that "US deficits don't matter."

I haven't seen Paul Krugman talking about this in a long, long time. Only because it's near the top of the google returns, I will link this one, and ironically, it's from The New York Times, Paul Krugman, January 9, 2017. Pretty funny.

By the way, two countries not running a deficit: communist China and Germany. Not sure if that's entirely accurate, but that's my perception. Or world view. Pocahontas praised communist China yesterday for its way of government. Posted earlier. Color me shocked? No.

My Favorite Three Words In One Sentence: Oil, Profits, Surge -- In Any Order -- May 30, 2018

Making American great again: one can't make this up -- from Bloomberg no less. US back in top position -- that would be #1 -- "leapfrogs Singapore, Hong Kong -- wins world's most competitive economy award. Trump will go to Oslo to accept the award. From Bloomberg: 

• faster growth propels US to top for first time since Obama -- in other words, under Obama, the US lost first place to countries like Switzerland
• it took Trump less than one year to turn the ship around and get that top spot again
• no, past administrations did not set us on this course -- this is a real-time award -- it has to do with competition -- in the world of running, it's a 100-meter sprint, not a 5K marathon
• wow, this must have been tough for Bloomberg to post this
• the list --

Boston: before going out the door this morning, I heard on CNBC that with regard to economy, tobs, technology, and internet security, Boston "is on fire." One company has 1,000 engineers at one site in Boston. It's possible Amazon will site HQ2 in Boston. Meanwhile, Pocahontas praises communist China's "long-term whole-of-government" strategy. No, I did not read that article.

Kim summit at White House. No, not that Kim. The other Kim.

Oh-oh: US 1Q18 GDP revised down to 2.2% -- down from 2.3%. It was the weather.This is second reading. The estimate was 2.3%.

**********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$67.00→	5/30/2018	05/30/2017	05/30/2016	05/30/2015	05/30/2014
Active Rigs	62	50	29	80	188

RBN Energy: E&Ps' cash flow, profits surge in first quarter on higher oil prices. Oil is low now, dropping well below $72, but for Saudi Arabia, Brent below $88 is an existential issue.

Until the fall in crude oil prices over the past few days, U.S. oil and gas producers had been basking in the glow of the highest oil prices in years. Not surprisingly, in the first quarter of 2018 the 44 major U.S. exploration and production companies we track reported the highest quarterly profit and cash flow since the 2014-15 oil market crash brought many to the edge of a financial abyss.

These producers put themselves into a position to benefit from the commodity price recovery by implementing dramatic strategic shifts and an operational transformation that emphasized operating efficiency, portfolio high-grading and financial discipline. Now, with oil prices softening somewhat, the prospects for continued profitability growth for the E&P sector as a whole are mixed. Today, we do a deep dive into the results and outlook for the companies in the Oil-Weighted, Diversified, and Gas-Weighted peer groups.