Thursday, December 15, 2022
CenterPoint Energy Raised Its Quarterly Dividend -- December 15, 2022
It was only a penny, from eighteen cents to nineteen cents but the frequency is / was interesting.
The new dividend is paid in March; it is not reflected in the table below.
Quick: Defense Authorization Bill Passed -- Military Pay Raise Huge But Less Than Retirees' COLA -- Covid Vaccine Mandate For Military Lifted -- December 15. 2022
Links to thhe story are just starting to appear.
The authorization was for just under one trillion dollars.
If that article had the pay raise numbers, I missed it.
Active duty personnel will probably see a pay raise of 4.7%.
Retired military personnel saw their pensions rise the same percent as the social security COLA: 8.7%. This is not part of the Defense Authorization bill.
Another year or so of this and retirees will be paid more than active duty. Active duty, of course, receive additional pay and benefits that are not taxed.
There were times in my career when I could "bank" my entire basic pay and live off pay separate from basic pay (combat pay; hazardous duty pay; temporary duty pay; special pays; incentive pay; etc).
But, then, retirees, also get social security, which is taxed. So, it's probably a wash -- comparing active duty pay with retirement.
Pfizer Granted Upgraded Status For First-Ever Group B Strep Vaccine -- December 15, 2022
I don't know if regular readers of Fox News caught this story (the surge in severe Group A strep infections with no known explanation: https://www.foxnews.com/health/great-concern-invasive-group-a-strep-cases-spiking-parts-us-respiratory-viral-illnesses.
Knowing most folks don't trust Fox News, I looked for another source and here it is. There is not a more credible source than Nature: link here.
So, here's a quick review. This review is very, very superficial and accurate only to the extent to which the information is provided (if that makes sense).
There are three major strep bacteria with which we are concerned.
All three are of the same genus; two are of the same species; the third is in a species of its own. The two varieties of strep in the same species are in two different groups: group A and group B.
So, Kamala Harris would explain it to the president like this:
- strep pneumonia (pneumococcal pneumonia) is caused by a cousin of the Group A / Group B strep bacteria;
- Group A / Group B are siblings (brothers / sisters)
- their pronouns are it / they
Why they are scary:
- Strep pneumonia (pneumococcal pneumonia): can cause severe pneumonia/death in seniors;
- Group A strep: every mom knows this one: strep throat, scarlet fever, rheumatic heart disease; kidney disease (renal failure, death)
- Group B strep: bad, bad disease if contracted by fetus/newborn/infant whose mother has/had asymptomatic Group B strep; colonization along the birth canal (no disease; just carries the bug)
Vaccine status:
- strep pneumonia: yes, "pneumococcal vaccine"; e.g. Prevnar-- Pfizer and Merck; #1 selling vaccine in the world; recommended for everyone over the age of 65;
- strep A: no vaccine; thirty years of research; no vaccine
- strep B: no vaccine --- until now ... link here.
September 7, 2022 -- just a few months ago --
Pfizer: investigational Group B Streptococcus (GBS) vaccine candidate, GBS6 or PF-06760805, received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the US FDA for the prevention of invasive GBS disease due to the vaccine serotypes in newborns and young infants by active immunization of their mothers during pregnancy.
This would be offered to all moms during the second or early third trimester of pregnancy.
This decision follows the FDA’s March 2017 decision to grant Fast Track status to GBS6.
Fast Track status is a process designed to facilitate the development and expedite the review of new drugs and vaccines intended to treat or prevent serious conditions and address an unmet medical need.
Pfizer.
Getting the job done.
Huge.
By the way, Nature proposes one possible explanation for why Group A strep is surging. If interested, go to the link.
CLR With Three New Permits -- December 15, 2022
MDU press relief: MDU Resources expects the spinoff of Knife River will be complete in the second quarter of 2023.
Active rigs: 44.
WTI: $76.19.
Natural gas: $6.776.
Three new permits, #39493 - #39495, inclusive:
- Operator: CLR
- Field: West Capa (Williams)
- Comments:
- CLR has permits for three Thaxton wells SESE 35-155-97,
- to be sited 415 FSL and between 505 FEL and 595 FEL
Twenty-four Minutes Ago -- Just Breaking -- 75% Cut For New Customers -- Rooftop Solar -- Net Metering Payments -- December 15, 2022
Average homeowner would see as much as a 75% haircut.
Doesn't seem fair, does it?
Current folks need to be grandfathered in. Make changes that affect new customers. [See below.]
Let's see what SRE does tomorrow.
Along with the broader market, SRE closed down 1.2%; down $2.00; trading at $161.91.
Oh, here we go, deep in the article:
The proposal would have no impact on existing rooftop solar customers and would maintain their current compensation rates, and would also encourage consumers to install batteries with their solar panels, the commission said.
Okay, great call!
If This Plays Out -- December 15, 2022
If this plays out as the ArgusMedia suggests, we should unprecedented record crude oil demand in 2023.
For investors: with the Fed now telling us that they will keep the prime rate "higher for longer," I will be changing my "new money allocation" starting next week.
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The Music Page
ESPO
Updates
December 16, 2022: sanctions affecting ESPO deliveries.
Original Post
A huge, huge thanks to a reader for sending me a link regarding ESPO -- see farther down this post.
I was unfamiliar with that "brand" of Russian oil.
ESPO: think Keystone XL (canceled by Biden) -- longer but about the same volume. The East Siberia Pacific Ocean takes oil from Siberia to a Russian port on the Sea of Japan.
China asked for a spur to the interior of China; the spur to Daqing, China.
- Daqing, China, is to the far northeast of Beijing.
The D5S "caps" only affect sea-going oil, so the $60-cap does not apply to the oil transported on the ESPO (pipeline + spur) unless it is transferred to sea-going tankers at port.
Geo-politics:
- prior to sanctions: one-third ESPO oil to China; two-thirds to the port -- on to Japan, Korea
- after sanctions: more will go to China; unaffected by $60-cap
- questionable how much will still go by ship to Japan, Korea, etc.
- questionable how much will go to India
- India: Iraq, Saudi were #1, #2, prior to sanctions but now Russia is #1 supplier for India
- Saudi, Iraq not likely to cede India to Russia;
- regardless, India's appetite for oil will require oil from all three: Iraq, KSA, and Putin;
- The "big" brand of oil for Russia is not ESPO oil but Urals which supplied Europe.
- Russia lost huge European-Urals market; won't be made up with ESPO oil
- Siberian oil: huge dependence on western technology for very harsh environment
Bottom line for me:
- stories on ESPO a distraction
- but analysts will talk about ESPO to make folks think they know what they're talking about.
Map of China:
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Click Bait
One needs to read to very end of that article to get to this:
At least one cargo of ESPO, which is preferred by China’s independent refiners, was sold last week at a discount of $6 per barrel to the February ICE Brent price on the delivery-ex-ship (DES) basis, traders familiar with the transaction told Reuters. At the current price of Brent Crude, this means that the ESPO cargo was sold at around $68 per barrel.
While the ESPO crude is easier for Russia to move from its Far East to China, the price of Russia’s Urals grade, shipped from the Baltic port of Primorsk, was assessed at well below the price cap on Thursday, at just $41.59 per barrel according to Argus.
Even the headline was at odds with the three summary points:
Now, let's take a look at a few other more credible stories.
The Book Page -- Ruth Paine's Garage -- December 15, 2022
The book has been added to my Autumn, 2022, reading list.
- Mrs Paine's Garage and the Murder of John F. Kennedy, Thomas Mallon, c. 2002.
Ruth Paine's testimony at the Warren Commission was by far the longest text by any witness.
Ruth Hyde Paine (born September 3, 1932) was a friend of Marina Oswald, who was living with her at the time of the JFK assassination. According to four government investigations, Lee Harvey Oswald stored the 6.5 mm caliber Carcano rifle that he used to assassinate U.S. President John F. Kennedy in Ruth Paine's garage, unbeknownst to her and her husband, Michael Paine.
Ruth Paine answered more than 5,000 questions for the Warren Commission.
There were over 500 witnesses for the Warren Commission, and the average number of questions asked for each witness was less than 300.
Furthermore, Ruth Paine has given more interviews than any other Warren Commission witness, always consistent with her Warren Commission testimony.
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Legacy
Upon completing the book, another reminder -- the only thing we leave when we leave this world is our legacy.
That's why I have a 30-year horizon when investing with a focus on dividends.
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Shareholders As Owners
One of the "things" that makes investing so much fun is waking up and finding that one of the companies of which you are part owner has continued to grow: through an acquisition or by investing in a new venture.
Today, link here. I have a very, very small position in TotalEnegies. This was by Charles Kennedy, the best contributor over at oilprice.com. If Charles Kennedy writes about it, it's an important story.
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WDFC Increases Its Quarterly Dividend
EVs Today -- December 15, 2022
Updates
December 15, 2022: the F-35 story. A very, very impressive website. A must-read.
Original Post
Ft Worth, TX: everything's bigger in Texas --
- 'BR's GE locomotives' built here;
- the F-35 is built here;
The locomotive factory:
-
FORT WORTH, Texas — For as loud as it is inside, what happens at this Fort Worth factory has kind of been kept quiet.
- “We’re up here next to the NASCAR track,” said Patrick Wiltrout, vice president of manufacturing quality at Wabtec.
- This facility, formerly known as GE Transportation, is one of two in the nation that assembles locomotives.
- Wabtec has a million square feet at State Highway 114 and I-35W near the Texas Motor Speedway.
- “This is your diesel engine that powers the locomotive,” Wiltrout said standing next to a massive, newly refurbished V16 engine.
- The factory opened in 2013 and now employs 800 people.
“I’ve been told you can power almost a residential block off the electricity that a single locomotive can produce,” he continued.
EVs today:
- RIDE: down 1.6%: trading at $1.28.
- RIVN: up 0.1%; trading at $24.47.
- LCID: down 1.7%; trading at $7.58.
- F: down 3%; trading at $13.08
Avatar: link here. We'll be seeing this movie tomorrow night, 6:00 p.m. A local Schwab office reserved the entire theater for its clients.
Schwab: integration of TD Ameritrade with Schwab begins in January, 2023.
- each tranch will occur over a three-day holiday at which time, TD Ameritrade accounts moving over to Schwab will be "frozen" or something to that effect:
- first three-day holiday / "black-out period" -- the first 500,000 accounts
- second three-day holiday / "black-out period" -- the next 3 million accounts
- third three-day holiday / "black-out period" -- the next 3 million accounts
- final three-day holiday / "black-out period" -- the rest.
F-35:
Merkel's Legacy -- Deindustrialisierung. - December 16, 2022
Reuters yesterday:
Germany is bleeding cash to keep the lights on.
Almost half a trillion dollars, and counting, since the Ukraine war jolted it into an energy crisis nine months ago. That's the cumulative scale of the bailouts and schemes the Berlin government has launched to prop up the country's energy system since prices rocketed and it lost access to gas from main supplier Russia, according to Reuters calculations.
One long word:
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
Nope: de-industrialization.
German: deindustrialisierung.
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Reality Sucks
From a reader after posting the above:
Covid-19 Update -- December 16, 2022
New variants "barely susceptible" to new vaccines. Link here.
FDA revokes authorization for only remaining Covid-19 monocloal antibody treatment, link here.
- was written before Evusheld was taken off the market.
- note:
- Evusheld: monoclonal, pre-exposure
- bebtelovimab: monoclonal, post-exposure
- both for immuno-compromised individuals
Both betbeloovimab and Evusheld now removed from the market by FDA mandate.
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The Atlantic Story On Covid
Covid variants:
For the first couple of years of the coronavirus pandemic, the crisis was marked by a succession of variants that pummeled us one at a time.
The original virus rapidly gave way to D614G, before ceding the stage to Alpha, Delta, Omicron, and then Omicron’s many offshoots.
But as our next COVID winter looms, it seems that SARS-CoV-2 may be swapping its lead-antagonist approach for an ensemble cast: Several subvariants are now vying for top billing.
In the United States, BA.5—dominant since the end of spring—is slowly yielding to a slew of its siblings, among them BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1; another subvariant, XBB, threatens to steal the spotlight from overseas.
Whether all of these will divvy up infections in the next few months, or whether they’ll be pushed aside by something new, is still anyone’s guess. Either way, the forecast looks a little grim.
None of the new variants will completely circumvent the full set of immune defenses that human bodies, schooled by vaccines or past infections, can launch. Yet all of them seem pretty good at dodging a hefty subset of our existing antibodies.For anyone who gets infected, such evasions could make the difference between asymptomatic and feeling pretty terrible. And for the subset of people who become sick enough to need clinical care, the consequences could get even worse.
Some of our best COVID treatments are made from single antibodies tailored to the virus, which may simply cease to work as SARS-CoV-2 switches up its form.
Past variants have already knocked out several such concoctions—among them, REGEN-COV, sotrovimab, and bamlanivimab/etesevimab—from the U.S. arsenal.
The only two left are bebtelovimab, a treatment for people who have already been infected, and Evusheld, a crucial supplement to vaccination for those who are moderately or severely immunocompromised; both are still deployed in hospitals countrywide.
But should another swarm of variants take over, these two lone antibody therapies could also be obsolete within months, if not weeks.
“It seems like the writing is on the wall,” says Erin McCreary, an infectious-disease pharmacist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. “I live constantly low-key worried that I’m not going to have an active therapy for my patients, and I won’t be able to help them.”
All of this bodes poorly for this winter and beyond. In the near term, millions of immunocompromised people could be left without viable options either to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay or to temper its blaze once an infection begins to burn. And that loss would set a troubling precedent for seasons to come. The business end of the virus “is now adapting so rapidly that I don’t know how it’s going to be possible for monoclonals to keep up,” says Jeanne Marrazzo, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Experts may need to revamp the strategies they use to bring new therapies to market—or find themselves, once again, in a serious bind.
“I worry,” Marrazzo told me, “that we’re on a razor’s edge.”
D5S -- China Update -- December 15, 2022
China could take up to 400,000 barrels per day of additional crude oil from Russia and possibly more.
However, it is likely to wait for physical crude markets to settle down ....
Beyond this initial caution, traders say quality issues, involving high mercury and vanadium content in Russian Urals crude, will likely impose some constraints on the extent and pace of any increase in China's imports.
China has been one of the main buyers to pick up Russian crude displaced from traditional markets in Europe, alongside India.
With the EU introducing a formal ban on imports of Russian crude from December 5, 2022, the appetite of these two countries to take more has become a key question for Russian production and global oil supply.
Assuming that uncertainties related to the price cap and associated bans wane and market players figure out how to trade safely within or around the cap, China could eventually buy an additional 200,000 b/d-400,000 b/d of Russian crude.
Another source at a major global market player said China could potentially increase Russian crude imports by significantly more.
Much more at the link.
Investors -- December 15, 2022
Retail sales, disappoint. Pre-market, Dow falls 400 points, link here:
Refiners, link here.
Commodities, 2023, link here.
Ford: boosts F-150 production.
Qualcomm:
China:
California, drought emergency:
The Story That Will Become The Big Story In 2023 -- The Southern Surge -- December 15, 2022
California: Presidential hopeful and California governor Newsom wades (jumps?) into the controversy. Link here.
- As a reminder, "every" Texas county along the Mexican border voted for "open border" proponent Beto whose home town is El Paso, ground zero for the "southern surge."
- Title 42.
My hunch: this is what concerns the Biden administration: the optics. The videos that will come out of this story.
Meanwhile, link here.
Nuclear Energy Plant Backed By Bill Gates Delayed At Least Two Years -- December 15, 2022
The story:
- high-tech nuclear plant in Wyoming delayed; can problem be traced back to the Clintons?
Reliance on Russian fuel for nuclear reactors amid Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has led to the delay of a much-awaited high-tech nuclear energy project in Wyoming.
Backed by the U.S. Department of Energy and Bill Gates, the nuclear energy project has been delayed by at least two years, with a U.S. senator saying the United States needs to to reduce reliance on Russia for a special fuel for such reactors.
Set near the site of a coal plant slated for shutdown in 2025, the TerraPower nuclear energy project envisions a $4-billion Natrium plant in the remote Wyoming town of Kemmerer.
Citing a TerraPower spokesperson late on Tuesday, the Casper Star Tribune said the 345-megawatt plant will likely be delayed for at least two years.
In 2013, Rosatom, backed by the Russian state, acquired a Canadian uranium mining company, now called Uranium One, which has assets in the U.S.
Through the deal, Russia is able to own about 20 percent of U.S. uranium production capacity.
However, Colin Chilcoat, an energy affairs specialist who has written extensively about Russia's energy deals, said that the company only extracts about 11 percent of uranium in the U.S.
The deal also “doesn’t allow for that uranium to be exported at all,” Chilcoat told Fox News.
“It’s not like it’s leaving the U.S. or somehow finding its way to more insidious players.”
The agreement was approved by nine government agencies with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), an inter-agency group that reviews how certain foreign investments can impact national security.
The State Department under Clinton was one of those agencies, though Clinton told WMUR-TV in 2015 that she was not “personally involved” in the agreement.
Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Two Days -- December 15, 2022
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 42.
WTI: $77.33.
Natural gas: $6.409.
Friday, December 16, 2022: 40 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 693 for the year.
38932, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 3-33-4H,
36900, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H,
36178, conf, BR, Geeorge 2D TFH,
Thursday, December 15, 2022: 37 for the month, 146 for the quarter, 690 for the year.
38938, conf, CLR, Roxy 6-31H,
38931, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 5-33-4TFH,
38214, conf, WPX, Two Shields Butte 13-21 10H,
RBN Energy: the refining sector's volatility isn't over. It's just beginning. Archived.
It could be argued that no sector in the energy industry has seen more uncertainty the past three years than refining. In rapid succession, it experienced a historic collapse in demand, a shaky recovery, a run-up in crude oil and other feedstock prices, the disruption in Russian supply, and the wrath of the public and politicians alike when gasoline and diesel prices rocketed higher earlier this year. Prices at the pump may have sagged in recent months, but don’t think for a second that refining has reverted to anything resembling stability and normalcy — refiners still face a host of challenges and unknowns. For starters, what’s ahead for crack spreads, which have been spiking up and down lately? How quickly will electric vehicles (EVs) undermine demand for traditional motor fuels? And what about renewable diesel? New environmental regulations? More refinery closures? In today’s RBN blog, we look at the long list of challenges domestic and international refiners will face through the rest of the 2020s.
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