EIA April, 2021, Dashboards Have Posted

The April, 2021, EIA dashboards have been posted:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The graphics:

The Bakken and the Permian show almost no change month-over-month. Interestingly enough, the Eagle Ford showed the "biggest" change, albeit trivial in the big scheme of things. It surprised me because so many writers / analysts have suggested the Eagle Ford is the fastest declining oil field in the country. 

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Did It Ever Get Any Better Than This?

For The Archives: Snapshots In Time -- April 12, 2021

US oil production still two million bpd under pre-pandemic levels. Link to Julianne Geiger, oilprice.  

The EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report is forecasting that for the nation’s most prolific basin, the Permian, production will return to 4.466 million barrels per day in May.

That compares to 3.918 million bpd in May 2020—but that was hardly prior to the pandemic. In January 2020, the Permian basin’s average oil production was 4.793 million bpd. This means that oil production in the Permian Basin is down 327,000 bpd, or 7% under January levels.

4.8 vs 4.5. I just can't get too excited.

Coincidentally, moments after I posted this link/story, it was noted that the EIA had posted the April, 2021, "dashboards."

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Moving on. 

Big Oil's dwindling reserves are a major problem. Link here to Cyril Widdershoven over at oilprice. I think I've been reading "these stories" or variations thereof over the past several decades. During the Jimmy Carter administration it was downright dire. 

Even before reading the article, I was thinking -- this is going to be a "money" story -- financial, economic, business -- and not a scientific, geologic story. And it was. This is the nub:

As demand recovers and oil prices climb, there are plenty of potential financial windfalls in 2021 for these companies to take advantage of. 

The question remains, however, over whether or not the companies will invest in new production and reserves or will they use it to pay dividends. 

Some analysts have already claimed that the current reserve crisis is no real issue, as most IOCs are going through an energy-transition phase. 

However, to invest in the energy transition these companies need plenty of cash to cope with the planned multi-billion-dollar wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, while also keeping investors and shareholders happy. 

As stated by Citibank, “the latest words from an IOC board chairman, ‘Black pays for green’, refer to the 80% of the CFFO (cash flow from operations) generated from oil and gas activities, which is expected to be above 70% by 2030.” 

If reserves are not high enough to sustain “normal” oil and gas operations, the time frame for energy transition success then becomes a major issue too. 

Again, this seems to be a typical "business" dilemma. Warren Buffett addressed it by simply not paying dividends. Much more to the story, of course. But, wow, how things have changed, comparing the current energy situation with that during the Carter administration, and even the Barack "we can't drill our way to cheaper oil" Obama administration. We're so over-supplied with fossil fuel the US has the luxury of shutting down pipelines even after they’ve been built and are safely transporting oil. 

What a great country.

How The DAPL Decison Will Play Out -- April 12, 2021

Where we stand on the DAPL and projections:

Friday, April 9, 2021:

• US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 13, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 14, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 15, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Saturday, April 15, 2021;

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Meanwhile, In South Dakota

South Dakota's attorney general has been selected for promotion to colonel in the US Army reserves. Link here.

Reader Reads The DAPL Tea Leaves -- April 12, 2021

From a reader, highly edited to maintain anonymity. If the reader does not want this posted, let me know and I will remove:

The tea leaves suggest President Biden won’t step on ND DAPL after dealings with MHA Nation chief Mark Fox who went from 2016 NODAPL to current PRODAPL since 50% of MHA production rides DAPL. 

 

Mark wrote letter for Biden administration, gave to Ness in ND & legislators but not sure it went to DC. 

 

My gut says since MHA got Federal lease exception for 7 ND counties he may have stirred up Biden-American-Indian-appointed staff to push for keeping DAPL OPEN. 

 

Fox has been in Bismarck making his case for new taxes on MHA reservation oil, federal lease exemptions he secured, and keeping DAPL OPEN. Ron Ness wanted his DAPL letter sent to Biden, I read recently. 

Who knows but sounds more positive imho.

More than a dozen of our ND operators use DAPL so I’m hopeful.

The MAG 1 well & some other (JROC1) stratigraphic testing locations appear to be getting ready for EOR to come full circle. I hope to find out more on my upcoming trip to ND, soon. We have multiple tracts around MAG 1 within a stone's throw, as they say. Of course I’m highly exuberant about the Basin in ND.

NARO (National Association of Royalty Owners)

No in-person ND NARO meeting this June. NARO will be virtual per ND NARO president (e-mail). Virtual meeting to be announced. Oklahoma has October NARO in person.

Hopefully "the judge" is listening.  

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Michele Chiarlo

Link here.  

Some say it is the best dessert wine in the world. 

I will let you know my thoughts later. 

Later:

Nivole.

My wife said it was the best dessert wine she had ever tasted. It will now be here "go-to" dessert wine. LOL.

I would agree -- for a dessert wine, top shelf.

But for sipping while watching reruns of Columbo: Gater Bite is still my go-to ...

... and lo and behold, here I am ... watching an old re-run of Columbo -- "The Greenhouse Jungle," season 2, episode 2, October 15, 1972.

The Hess State B Wells In Alger Oil Field

Six new permits, as of April 12, 2021, #38253 - #38268, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess:
• Field: Alger
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for six more EN-State B wells in SWSE 4-155-93;

Active wells already sited in this drilling units:

• 24445, 515, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-2, Alger, t8/13; cum 142K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
• 24444, 1,050, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-3, Alger, t8/13; cum 194K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
• 24443, 831, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-4, Alger, t8/13; cum 181K 2/21;
• 24442, 537, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-5, Alger, t813; cum 148K 6/20; remains off line 2/21;/
• 18229, 531, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-1, Alger, t8/13; cum 303K 6/20; off line 2/21; small jump in production, 9/13; 

The graphics:

 

WTI Can't Hold Above $60; Active Rig Count Goes To Seventeen -- April 12, 2021

Reminder: "Focus on Fracking" -- this week's edition, posted last night. Link here. I check it every week but sometimes I forget to post the link. Sorry. But the link is up today. 

Saudi: breakeven for Saudi next year -- $65. That would be Brent / OPEC basket, I assume.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs (see below):

$59.63	4/12/2021	04/12/2020	04/12/2019	04/12/2018	04/12/2017
Active Rigs	17	36	63	59	51

Six new permits, #38253 - #38268, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess:
• Field: Alger (Mountrail County)
  
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for six EN-State B wells in SWSE 4-155-93;
• the wells will be sited 530' FSL and between 2285' and 2120' FEL
  

Eight permits renewed:

• CLR: six Breitling permits in Williams County; and two Harrisburg permits in McKenzie County;

Active rigs:

• CLR (4): Gordon Federal, Rodney, Candee, Harms
• Marathon (3): Fitterer, Hausauer, Burger USA,
• Hess (3): GO-Braaten, BL-Frisinger, EN-Rice,
• Enerplus: Lynx
• Slawson: Whirlcat Federal,
• Whiting: Lacey
• Oasis: Nikolai
• Petro-Hunt: Hurinenko
• CPEUSC: CPEUSC Sylven
• Iron Oil Operating: Madison

Rig	Operator	Well Name and Number	Current Location	County	File No	API	Start Date	** Next Location
H & P 515	PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.	Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HS	LOT1 3-144N-98W	BIL	38181	33007019250000	3/26/2021	Undetermined
H & P 456	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.	GORDON FEDERAL 2-5H1	NESE 6-148N-97W	DUN	36106	33025037130000	3/30/2021	Undetermined
NABORS x10	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	FITTERER 11-3H	LOT4 3-145N-94W	DUN	37243	33025039650000	4/8/2021	Undetermined
H & P 492	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	Hausauer 14-22TFH	SWSW 22-145N-94W	DUN	37387	33025039990000	4/2/2021	Undetermined
CYCLONE 38	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.	Rodney 14-29HSL	NENE 32-147N-96W	DUN	37408	33025040150000	4/5/2021	Undetermined
H & P 454	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.	Candee 13-9HSL	SESE 9-146N-95W	DUN	38153	33025041910000	4/6/2021	Undetermined
NABORS B13	OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC	Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 10BX	LOT4 6-152N-97W	MCK	37624	33053094500000	3/4/2021	Undetermined
TRUE 40	ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATION	Lynx 151-94-33C-28H	SWSE 33-151N-94W	MCK	37723	33053094910000	4/8/2021	Undetermined
NABORS B27	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.	Harms Federal 18-33H	SESW 32-153N-93W	MCK	37988	33053096100000	* MIRU	Undetermined
NOBLE 1	IRON OIL OPERATING, LLC	MADISON 2-1	SENW 2-148N-102W	MCK	90177	33053901770000	4/9/2021	Unknown
NABORS X28	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC	EN-RICE- A-155-94-0310H-4	LOT3 3-155N-94W	MTL	37332	33061046630000	4/6/2021	Undetermined
PATTERSON 808	WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATION	Lacey 43-2-2XH	NESE 2-152N-92W	MTL	37855	33061048240000	4/7/2021	Undetermined
UNIT 414	SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.	Whirlcat Federal 5-31-19TFH	LOT3 6-151N-92W	MTL	37920	33061048330000	3/27/2021	Undetermined
H & P 259	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	BURGER USA 41-18TFH	NWNE 18-150N-92W	MTL	37999	33061048400000	4/3/2021	Undetermined
NABORS X24	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC	BL-FRISINGER- 156-95-2833H-4	NENE 28-156N-95W	WIL	37130	33105053760000	4/7/2021	Undetermined
NABORS B06	CRESCENT POINT ENERGY U.S. CORP.	CPEUSC Sylven 4-11-2-158N-100W-MBH	SESW 11-158N-100W	WIL	37883	33105055580000	4/9/2021	Undetermined
NOBLE 4	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC	GO-BRAATEN- 156-97-2833H-2	SESW 21-156N-97W	WIL	38060	33105055810000	4/12/2021	Undetermined

Covid-19 Vaccine -- US Rollout --Update -- April 12, 2021

		A	B	C	D	F
		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered	Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday	Average number of doses given / day in past seven days
Monday	April 12, 2021	237,796,305	200	189,692,045	2,644,914	79.77%	29,904,910	3,214,893
Sunday	April 11, 2021	237,796,105	4,370	187,047,131	3,579,422	78.66%
Saturday	April 10, 2021	237,791,735	4,199,780	183,467,709	4,629,928	77.15%
Friady	April 9, 2021	233,591,955	4,193,270	178,837,781	3,958,065	76.56%
Thursday	April 8, 2021	229,398,685	4,104,250	174,879,716	3,403,061	76.23%
Wednesday	April 7, 2021	225,294,435	6,100,220	171,476,655	2,884,580	76.11%
Tuesday	April 6, 2021	219,194,215	11,302,820	168,592,075	1,404,280	76.91%
Monday	April 5, 2021	207,891,395	100	167,187,795	2,134,049	80.42%	27,244,830	3,053,566
Sunday	April 4, 2021	207,891,295	24,650	165,053,746	3,365,324	79.39%
Saturday	April 3, 2021	207,866,645	3,147,310	161,688,422	4,081,959	77.78%
Friday	April 2, 2021	204,719,335	4,222,700	157,606,463	3,975,059	76.99%
Thursday	April 1, 2021	200,496,635	4,914,910	153,631,404	3,358,112	76.63%
Wednesday	March 31, 2021	195,581,725	6,130,440	150,273,292	2,670,947	76.83%
Tuesday	March 30, 2021	189,451,285	8,804,720	147,602,345	1,789,510	77.91%
Monday	March 29, 2021	180,646,565	100	145,812,835	2,350,144	80.72%	23,912,010	2,757,586
Sunday	March 28, 2021	180,646,465	2,340	143,462,691	3,281,956	79.42%
Saturday	March 27, 2021	180,644,125	3,142,350	140,180,735	3,496,047	77.60%
Friday	March 26, 2021	177,501,775	3,976,440	136,684,688	3,379,393	77.00%
Thursday	March 25, 2021	173,525,335	4,302,210	133,305,295	2,831,442	76.82%
Wednesday	March 24, 2021	169,223,125	6,244,285	130,473,853	1,982,059	77.10%
Tuesday	March 23, 2021	162,978,840	6,244,285	128,491,795	1,982,059	78.84%
Monday	March 22, 2021	156,734,555	0	126,509,736	2,028,324	80.72%	20,886,720	2,489,697

Johns Hopkins Data: 

Michigan. Link here. The question: what the hell is going on in Michigan? Why isn't the president acting? First thing we do: divert vaccine going to states that "don't need it" to Michigan. The previous president would have tweeted and his minions would have figured out what was necessary. And then a CDC-eSWAT team -- epidemiology special weapons and tactics team -- needs to be deployed to Michigan immediately to help the state health department. If these things aren't being done, it tells me, things are not as bad as some folks are making them out to be. Let's look at the Johns Hopkins data: link here. Total cases per capita, Michigan ranks 41st, well below the US average which is between Louisiana (29) and Minnesota (30). Deaths per capita, Michigan ranks 20th. I would be curious what the story was regarding nursing homes. Some say the state's policy was like that of New York state. I don't know. But right now, in raw numbers, Michigan ranks #1 in new cases, which is truly amazing, considering its population compared to New York, California, Texas, and Flordia.