If "Arab Spring" Spreads To Turkey ...

.. no link.....all over the news. Easy to find.

For archival purposes.

Wow, Can You Imagine Living In The Mideast Today?

Updates

October 12, 2012: FT - Turkey steps up military presence along Syrian border

Turkey has increased its military presence along its 900km border with Syria, scrambling jets and dispatching scores of tanks in the continuing face-off between Ankara and Damascus. 

Two fighter aircraft flew along a stretch of the border after a Syrian helicopter bombed the nearby Syrian village of Azmarin, while Turkish media reported that up to 250 tanks were in the border area.

October 12, 2012: WSJ, page A13, editorial -- Turkey's Dangerous Assad Dilemma;

The Sunni-Schiite schism stretches from Iran and Iraq to Syria and Hezbollah's reign in Beirut, versus a Sunni bloc from North Africa to the eastern Mediterranean, clustered around Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

Syria is the prize, and the epicenter, of this contest. Hard as Mr Erdogan (Turkey's prime minister) would try to keep the struggle for Syria within tolerable bounds, the cruelty of the civil war there would overwhelm his policy. He had pledged himself to the removal of Assad, but the dictator had not obliged. Nor had Washington -- particularly President Obama, obsessed with self-preservation -- been the ally Mr Erdogan had hoped for.

October 11, 2012: WSJ, page A10 concurs -- Syrian conflict grows on two fronts  -- Turkey forces Damascus-bound plane to land; American sends troops to Jordan


October 10, 2012: Nobel peace prize winner sends US troops to Jordan.

The revelation of U.S. military personnel so close to the 19-month-old Syrian conflict suggests an escalation in the U.S. military involvement in the conflict, even as Washington pushes back on any suggestion of a direct intervention in Syria.  

October 9, 2012: pipelines from Iran and Iraq to Turkey are blowing up. Mysteriously.

October 8, 2012: Israel launches airstrike over Gaza after rockets from Gaza hit Israel; supposedly hits a mosque; Israel says Iran 2 - 4 months from "path to nuclear weapon"; 

October 8, 2012: Turkey shells Syria for sixth day. Turkey president says worse case scenario playing out in Syria; Turkey will do what it takes to protect itself. 

October 6, 2012: In the original post, I mention the 3:00 a.m. phone call from Libya that "we" all slept through. The rank-and-file in the intel community is starting to rally behind their immediate leadership: the White House simply did not respond to the Libyan threat -- either a mistake or on purpose.

The Drudge Report says the White House is starting to point fingers; maybe/maybe not, but the administration is now trying to get its story straight. Maybe this is the story that should air two days before the election rather than the documentary on the Bin Laden mission. For which Michelle and Barack were given credit, not the intelligence community.

It will be interesting where this story ends: an opportunity for a Pulitzer Prize if any reporter is interested. It should not be too difficult to find off-the-record, anonymous sources from the intel community. Look for some "leaked" e-mails.

Original Post

A regular talking head says Iran is ready to implode; sanctions taking a toll. He says governments topple due to inflation, riots in the streets. He failed to mention that before a government fails, they often do very rash things.

Iran leadership has said Israel's days are numbered. The US official position on that (if the president represents official position): Iran's posturing is just "noise."

Then, in the last hour or so, we get news that Turkey has authorized military action INSIDE Syria. Maybe it's just me, but there's something scary about a NATO country authorizing military action inside a non-NATO country. Just saying.

With all the internal problems Syria has at the moment, it's hard to believe that Turkish military action could be the catalyst for regime change. It's hard for me to believe that Russia will idly stand by and let that happen.

In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Syria has a closer relationship with Russia than with the United States. In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Turkey has a closer relationship with the United States than with Russia.

This will be interesting to follow.

Of course, we all know what happened in Libya when the 3:00 a.m. call came in and we were sleeping. I think about that when I connect the stories above and haven't heard anything from Saudi Arabia. I doubt the princes are unaware of what's happening in their neighborhood.

And Egypt isn't exactly quiet. Wow, Israel has to be watching events in Syria very, very closely. And Egypt on its west. And Iran. This is not good.

This is simply idle chatter, just thinking what it must be like to be living in the Mideast these days. It has  to be very, very interesting.

Keep This On Your Radar Scope: Saudi Arabia

I've talked about this before. "Arab Spring" keeps moving toward Saudi Arabia. Many of the articles have been in Mideast media with agendas. This story is in CNBC.

Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests. Its involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long conflict that will know no frontiers nor limits.

The Saudis are convinced that Iran is directing the protests and fear that the problems will spill over the 25-kilometer long COSWAY into oil rich Al-Qatif, where the bulk of the Saudi Arabia's Shia are concentrated. So far, the Saudis have not had to deal with demonstrations as serious as those in Bahrain, but success there could encourage the protestors to become more violent.

The customary manner of dealing with a problem by the patriarchal regime is to bury it in money. King Abdullah announced at the height of the Arab Spring that he was increasing the national budget by $130 billion to be spent over the coming five years. Government salaries and the minimum wage were raised. New housing and other benefits are to be provided. At the same time, he plans to expand the security forces by 60,000 men.

Go to the link for update on the Shia Crescent.

Some random data points:

• Saudi Arabia increased spending on its citizens: a) it will never be enough; b) religious zealots are not interested in money; and, c) those two (a) and (b) are not connected.
• Muslim Brotherhood is "taking over all" of Egypt
• Muslim Brotherhood is anchored in the Sunnah (Sunnis)
• Saudi state religion: Sunni; the Shia sizeable minority
• Egypt is going to need cash, and a lot of it, to keep the revolution going

Arab Spring.

Saudi: Women Given the Right to Vote

Link here.

This will be interesting to see how this plays out, and if there is more to the story. If accurate, it seems to have come out of nowhere. Something tells me it's getting very, very tense in the Mideast, both locally inside borders, and across borders.

Maybe there will be an Arab Spring II, come next year.

Lest We Forget -- Arab Spring --> Muslim Autumn

Updates

December 17, 2015: background. The genesis of Arab Spring. The [London] Telegraph reports.

Mrs Hamdy was the council inspector who, five years ago today confiscated the vegetable stall of a street vendor in her dusty town in central Tunisia.

In despair, that young man set himself on fire in a protest outside the council offices. Within weeks, he was dead, dozens of young Arab men had copied him, riots had overthrown his president, and the Arab Spring was under way.

As the world marks the anniversary, Syria and Iraq are in flames, Libya has broken down, and the twin evils of militant terror and repression stalk the region.

September 4, 2012: Muslim Brotherhood installed through the Egyptian bureaucracy; Egyptian-Americans with homes in both countries will probably not return to Egypt: think Bolshevik Revolution/Dr Zhivago;

September 4, 2012: Egyptian cleric -- "husbands, beat your wives, so they mend their ways."

August 25, 2012:  Syrians rebels appreciate Islamic help, but ...

Justice was swift and brutal when fighters of the Al Nusra Front militia caught a man accused of raping and killing a young girl in front of her father. They beheaded the man and left his body in the street.

The presence of women and children didn't deter them. Neither did the appeals of other rebels at the checkpoint in the embattled neighborhood of Salahuddin.

Members of the Free Syrian Army, the main rebel force, said that the man was a member of a pro-government militia and that they had no doubt he was guilty. They also had no objection to killing him, but they did object to a public beheading.

Public beheadings? Crucifixions? Get used to it. The Islamists will take the Mideast back to the 15th century (or earlier).

August 24, 2012: This is not "Arab Spring." This is "Muslim Autumn." The Bolshevik Revolution stopped Russia's progress in 1917. It took them 50 years to recover; some argue Russia has yet to recover. Muslim Spring, similarly, will set back the middle East -- all the way back to the 15th century. Already, we are seeing it. The first to go: women's rights. This is crazy. Sad. Read Bernard Lewis' What Went Wrong.


August 15, 2012: the Syrian revolution is spilling over into Lebanon. By the way, at the original post, look at the 3-front attack the writer urges for Israel and the last couple of statements:

If Israel initiates conflict in Gaza and fails, it risks making a possibility into a certainty — and Israel has not had many stunning victories for several decades. It could also create a crisis for Egypt’s military rulers, not something the Israelis want. 

Another source for the 3-front war.

The Muslim Brotherhood has just purged Egypt's military leadership. There is no question that the military is in disarray and is in no position to help Palestinians in the Gaza.  Israel has two long-term problems that could be handled in the short term.

August 12, 2012: if this doesn't send shivers up your spine, nothing will -- the Muslim Brotherhood taking control of Egypt is now complete.

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi has sacked the entire leadership of the country's defense establishment.

Last week, Morsi fired the Head of General Intelligence, General Morad Mu'afi, following the Sinai terror attack in which 16 policemen were killed. Egyptian news sources also said that Morsi had sacked the governor of Sinai.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi appears to be wasting no time in consolidating his hold over power at the expense of the military, which many hoped would be a moderating power over him.
And the events that precipitated this go back squarely to the speech POTUS made in Cairo early in his presidency.

It will be interesting to see how much aid the US sends Egypt for a peaceful transition. I can only assume this is not good for the tourist industry.

*******************

Ready to throw the Palestinians under the bus? Yup: the audit trail leads right back to Obama:

Exactly a year ago this week, President Barack Obama stood at the podium at the UN General Assembly and declared his support for a Palestinian state. 

“Palestinians will never know the pride and dignity that comes with their own state,” Mr Obama told the general assembly, unless the two parties reached a peace agreement.

So it will be some degree of awkwardness that Mr Obama returns to the UN this week and directs his representatives to vote against a plan that would lead to Palestinians achieving that exact destination, albeit by a different route.

What's the saying...? "One reaps what one sows."

First, his Cairo speech, and then "throwing Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus; and now, Saudi has made it very clear, it is the end of a 70-year relationship if the US vetoes a UN vote to grant Palestine statehood. I personally don't get it; this seems exactly what a community organizer would consider his biggest success -- organizing political forces to the point that a "failed state" is granted statehood. I guess it comes down to this: a) veto the UN vote and destroy the 70-year special relationship between Saudi Arabia; or, b) support Palestine in the UN vote, and guarantee losing his Jewish support in the US. This is not rocket science. And to think it all started with a teleprompted speech in Cairo.

Hmmm. The New York Times finally gets it. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short. Many of my readers saw this months ago, possibly back as far as the president's Cairo speech: Arab Spring will result in three new Islamist nations aligned with Iran. 

In the emerging post-Qaddafi Libya, the most influential politician may well be Ali Sallabi, who has no formal title but commands broad respect as an Islamic scholar and populist orator who was instrumental in leading the mass uprising.

The most powerful military leader is now Abdel Hakim Belhaj, the former leader of a hard-line group once believed to be aligned with Al Qaeda. 

It should be noted that these are the guys that the president backed. He knows what is going on in Libya, Egypt, and Palestine.

Jordan hanging by a thread.

GOP win in NY Ninth District: according to DNC, that district has always been problematic for the Dems. Yup, the district hasn't elected a GOP to that seat since 1923. I guess the only thin problematic for the district is getting the dead to vote.

The New York Times: US scrambling to avert Palestinian vote.

The New York Times: siege is widening. Amazing how I post the original story, and everyone follows. 

Israel facing 'diplomatic tsunami' with Arab neighbors.

The attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo has brought into sharp relief Israel's increasing isolation in a still region grappling with the changes of the Arab Spring. [The Arab spring followed the winter of 2009.]

Israel was forced to evacuate its ambassador and most of its diplomatic staff from Cairo this weekend after hundreds of Egyptian protesters tore down a security wall protecting the Nile-side embassy, ransacked its files and burned an Israeli flag. It came less than a week after Turkey, Israel's other major ally in the Muslim world, announced it was expelling the Israeli ambassador and downgrading its relationship to the lowest possible level after a deadly skirmish involving a Turkish aid vessel that was attempting to deliver supplies in defiance of Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Egyptians ignore President Obama's pleas to protect the embassy and/or stage a rescue mission. Okay. Can you spell "spiraling," as in "spiraling out of control"?

Original Post

THEN: President Obama's speech to the Arab world in 2009

On the other hand, it is also undeniable that the Palestinian people – Muslims and Christians – have suffered in pursuit of a homeland. For more than sixty years they have endured the pain of dislocation. Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza, and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to lead. They endure the daily humiliations – large and small – that come with occupation. So let there be no doubt: the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own.

NOW: Crisis threatens Israel's Mideast ties

Israeli leaders are struggling to contain an escalating diplomatic crisis on multiple fronts amid mounting concern that both Egypt and Turkey, the country’s two most important allies in the Muslim world, are slipping from its grasp.

Following scenes of violence and mayhem on the streets of Cairo, Israel was forced to evacuate its ambassador and almost the entire diplomatic staff from the embassy in the Egyptian capital in the early hours of Saturday. The dramatic move followed the storming of the embassy premises by a group of violent protesters on Friday night.

TOMORROW: Israeli-Arab Crisis Approaching

In September, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on whether to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state with full rights in the United Nations. In many ways, this would appear to be a reasonable and logical step. Whatever the Palestinians once were, they are clearly a nation in the simplest and most important sense — namely, they think of themselves as a nation. Nations are created by historical circumstances, and those circumstances have given rise to a Palestinian nation. Under the principle of the United Nations and the theory of the right to national self-determination, which is the moral foundation of the modern theory of nationalism, a nation has a right to a state, and that state has a place in the family of nations. In this sense, the U.N. vote will be unexceptional.

Israel has two strategies in the face of the potential storm. One is a devastating attack on Gaza followed by rotating forces to the north to deal with Hezbollah and intense suppression of an intifada. Dealing with Gaza fast and hard is the key if the intention is to abort the evolution I laid out. But the problem here is that the three-front scenario I laid out is simply a possibility; there is no certainty here. If Israel initiates conflict in Gaza and fails, it risks making a possibility into a certainty — and Israel has not had many stunning victories for several decades. It could also create a crisis for Egypt’s military rulers, not something the Israelis want.