Natural Gas Pipeline Constraints -- Update -- January 11, 2020

I don't follow natural gas closely enough to understand all this, but this article over at Platts seems to be fairly straightforward.

The link.

These are the summary data points:

• southbound corridors from Carthage, Perryville becoming constrained 
• estimated 1.5 Bcf/d capacity remains from Midwest, Northeast, Permian 
• summer-2020 Gulf Coast demand growth anchored by LNG liquefaction

Too much natural gas (and that amount is increasing) from Carthage, Perryville; not enough pipeline capacity to get the natural gas to Louisiana and east Texas. Producers have to cut costs to get access on pipeline. From the northeast, natural gas prices are, apparently, running ten to twenty-four cents behind Henry Hub prices. Farther afield, from the northeast and the midwest (think Bakken), the discount is even greater -- Chicago is 22 cents below Henry Hub while Dominion South is as much as 42 cents below Henry Hub.

As summer approaches, the situation will worsen; producers will do what it takes to get their product in the pipeline, and the discounts will widen.

While flow data along much of the North-to-South corridor appears to suggest ample capacity to reach the Gulf Coast, bottlenecks actually exist closer to locations like Henry Hub and Houston Ship Channel.

From the article:

For Midwest and Northeast gas flowing to the Gulf Coast on key interstate corridors – ANR Pipeline, Columbia Gulf Transmission, Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America, Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Texas Eastern Transmission, Texas Gas Transmission, Trunkline Gas and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line – congestion south of Carthage in West Louisiana and south of Perryville in the state's northeast will pose serious constraints to gas moving southbound next summer.

According to Platts Analytics, approximately 500 MMcf/d of available capacity remains between Carthage and Houston Ship Channel on Gulf South Pipeline, NPGL, Tennessee and Texas Eastern.

From Perryville to Henry Hub, a combined 83% utilization rate last summer on ANR Pipeline, Columbia Gulf, Tennessee, Texas Gas and Trunkline left about 1 Bcf/d of available capacity along the other key southbound corridor.

Including the eastbound corridor from the Permian Basin, Platts Analytics estimates that last summer, roughly 1.5 Bcf/d of spare capacity to Houston Ship Channel and Henry Hub remained from West Texas, Carthage and Perryville.

Compared to summer 2019, demand along the East Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts is forecast to rise about 4 Bcf/d, anchored principally by the growth in LNG liquefaction activity.

[So, if I'm reading this correctly, there may be 1 Bcf/d of available capacity, but demand is likely to rise above 4 Bcf/d -- if I'm reading that correctly -- holy mackerel -- that's a huge gap.]

At Freeport LNG, the startup of commercial service at Train 2 and Train 3 is expected by February and June, respectively.

At Cameron LNG, Train 2 and Train 3 are scheduled to enter service by April and August.

Along with a higher anticipated utilization rate at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass, LNG producers will likely require an incremental 3.5 Bcf/d of gas this summer compared to last.

Additional factors weighing on the region's available supply include stronger demand from Gulf Coast power generators and industry, as well an anticipated decline in Gulf Coast and offshore gas production.

Compared to last summer, though, more supply should be delivered to the East Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region from Kinder Morgan's 2 Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express, which entered service last September.

Hmmmm....one of my regular readers knows the natural gas pipeline story very, very well from an investment point of view. It will be interesting to see if she/he has anything to add regarding this story.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

KMI:

• currently trading at $21.51
• from one year ago, up from $17.32 one year ago
• pays 4.73%
• target: $22.27

See Motley Fool -- ten largest pipeline companies by enterprise value.

WMB:

• currently trading at $23.50
• from one year ago, down from $25.45
• pays 6.36%
• target: $27.46

OKE:

• currently trading at $75.53
• from one year ago, up from $60.96
• pays 4.84%
• target: $75.68

This article is two years old, but provides a nice overview. Look at the discounts (two cents to ten cents) back in 2017 and then compare them to the discounts, in 2020, noted above.

Growing demand along the Gulf Coast from industrial projects and exports have driven up Houston Ship Channel basis relative to Henry Hub from a discount of $0.02 in the summer of 2017 to a premium of $0.11 for May 2017. While Houston Ship Channel and Henry Hub prices are both much stronger year over year, pricing at Carthage and Perryville have seen discounts to Henry Hub widen to $0.10 back.

It sounds like the discounts will be "bad" on the pipelines leading into Carthage and Perryville, but the discounts will be even greater on the pipelines between Carthage/Perryville and Henry Hub.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- January 11, 2020

First things first, over in Frisco, just up the road from us. The North State University Bison made history in Frisco, TX, becoming the first modern-era Division 1 college football program to go 16-0 in a single season. Only 1894 Yale shares that honor. Story here;

NFL playoffs;

• Vikings vs San Francisco: I assume most television viewers quit watching after the middle of the second period. Went off and did something else during the second half; didn't come back; and, waited for the night game. 49ers overwhelming; Vikings, not so much.
• Ravens vs Tennessee: right now, the underdog Titans have the game under control. Six minutes left in third period, the Titans have just recovered a fumble, and lead by a couple of scores, 28 - 6. It's the Titans' game to lose, and it will be one of the comeback stories of the century if the Ravens come back to win this one.

The wall: I'm too tired to provide background to this story or to comment on it. A reader just sent it to me. I'll post the link -- you are on your own -- and maybe come back to it later. My only comment: Tommy Fisher knows how Trump thinks; my hunch is that Fisher will succeed. Coincidentally, earlier today;

Amazon Prime: I mentioned this earlier. Unlike so many other "streaming" services, Amazon Prime seems to have a different business model. Most "streaming" services increase prices on an annual basis but don't announce any new "goodies." Amazon seems to announce new "goodies" every six months or so, and whether there's a price increase of not, it's hard to say. I don't know if my Amazom Prime subscription has increased; I don't care. Amazon keeps adding more "goodies" to its basic service. Tonight I see that Amazon Prime offers free two-hour grocery delivery in select cities. Obviously that includes the DFW area -- if not now, soon. This is going to drive the local supermarkets nuts. I think our local grocery store charges about $10 per delivery. But now, free. You have to be kidding. Yup, it does. I just checked: Amazon Prime offers free two--hour grocery delivery in most US cities of any size. I don't shop at "whole paycheck" (Whole Foods) -- prices are too high -- but free delivery -- I may have to think again. But whether I take advantage of this or not, this is a huge deal for seniors, shut-ins, etc., etc.

Regime change: We were in Europe when "the wall" came down. Many of us in uniform in Europe anticipated events before they happened. We could see what was happening. The media was lagging behind the story by about 24 to 48 hours. What is happening in Tehran tonight reminds me of Berlin, November, 1989. Watching the events in Tehran unfold on twitter over the past 24 hours suggest that there really could be regime change. The economy is in a shambles; the Iranians as a whole are a pretty astute, smart people. They know it is not America that is the source of all their problems. Over the past ten years (or longer) "Death to America" rallies has gotten them nothing. As it has been noted on American television this past week, 30% of the Iranian population is controlling the other 70%. Both Trump and Pompeo are tweeting more than I've ever seen -- directly to the Iranians. Trump even tweeted a message in Farsi to the demonstrators. One gets the feeling that the Iranians have 72 hours to get this right. This geo-political stuff is absolutely fascinating. By not retaliating when the 16 ballistic missiles were launched, one get the feeling that Trump's team knew exactly what they were doing, and it seems, based on the story being reported in the WSJ today, the millennial reporters in Washington, DC, haven't got much of a clue. As a trivial sideshow, how this plays out has great significance for Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.

Random Look At Two Wells In The Bakken -- The Evolution Of The Bakken -- January 11, 2020

Another well that has been renamed to reflect unitization of the Hofflund oil field; note that this well has gone over the 500K threshold:

• 18510, 1,462, XTO, HBU Ward 11X-23, Charlson, t4/10; cum 536K 11/19;

Another well with jump in production; this well was completed back in 2010. A jump in production eight years later. Not supposed to happen under Hubbert's peak oil theory.

The well:

• 18651, 462, Oasis/Zenergy, Berquist 34-27H, Banks, t8/10; cum 416K 11/19;

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3415	3604	5765	12048	11022	1026
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4622	4567	7345	15906	14990	636
BAKKEN	1-2019	24	4572	4229	8114	13219	7975	5004
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	10134	10508	15683	30762	26622	3830
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	11196	11182	17963	29281	28802	189
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	9838	10015	18593	22348	21700	338
BAKKEN	9-2018	5	1659	979	8947	3165	3074	41
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	15	427	636	109	746	596	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	1123	1172	308	2434	2124	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1348	1194	400	3334	3024	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1377	1467	522	3833	3398	135

Looking At Wells Coming Off The Confidential List 1/16 -- Why The Bakken Remains So Interesting -- January 11, 2020

Updating wells that came off the confidential list in the first quarter 2016. These wells are four years old; they should be in terminal decline (the dreaded Bakken decline) and yet, here we are, jumps in production in these old wells. The Bakken never ceases to amaze.

This is why I find the Bakken so exciting.  Hubbert said this was not supposed to happen.

The well:

• 29669, 962, CLR, Sorenson 6-16H2, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, Three Forks Second Bench, 15 stages, 2.9 million lbs, 8/15; cum 179K 11/19;

Production period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2510	2675	6636	5024	4452	338
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	5329	5330	7268	4305	1856	2322
BAKKEN	9-2019	26	5070	6120	8284	4236	1124	2993
BAKKEN	8-2019	23	3265	1785	7723	4490	572	2662
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	30	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	14	615	645	175	775	679	83
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1472	1475	743	2835	1510	1285
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1656	1653	769	2370	1649	685

The well:

• 29670, 1,195, CLR, Thronson Federal 7-21H, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 409K 11/19; note the jump in production in 9/17; this well was completed in 2015, two years earlier;

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN	7-2018	31	9220	9138	10867	32455	31648	401
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	9291	9258	11300	28932	28359	277
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	13348	13486	16098	39511	38116	1148
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	19896	20134	20429	49027	42545	6243
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	27416	26898	27747	56846	49466	7150
BAKKEN	2-2018	23	9715	9783	11855	16254	14717	1368
BAKKEN	1-2018	14	6055	5901	13242	10498	8219	2172
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	1	50	50	0	16	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	25202	25671	22198	43666	40259	3191
BAKKEN	9-2017	23	17828	17351	13496	26740	10044	16587
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	16	1274	1558	902	4953	4890	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	5113	5136	3135	18767	18542	0

The well:

• 29667, 1,109, CLR, Thronson Federal 9-21H, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 304K 11/19; off line 1/19; back on line for a few days in 8/19; a few days in 9/19;

Production period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	8777	8477	5421	14984	13277	1009
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	7721	7301	8718	12681	5467	6839
BAKKEN	9-2019	8	2378	2316	2981	3215	853	2272
BAKKEN	8-2019	4	309	169	136	655	83	389
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	77	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	15	1574	1636	524	2815	2466	302
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	3427	3429	1410	6535	3480	2962
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	3682	3677	1714	7128	4959	2060
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	3785	3804	1978	9913	3900	5892
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	3692	3637	2304	6301	5134	1080

The well:

• 30864, 1,285, Enerplus, Screech 147-94-13B-24H, McGregory Buttes, 36 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t5/16; cum 413K 11/19;

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN	7-2018	31	5178	5163	3226	3883	1742	928
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	6101	6378	3516	4576	1212	1873
BAKKEN	5-2018	30	7043	6605	3610	5282	3456	332
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	10276	10199	3625	8221	5994	355
BAKKEN	3-2018	28	5605	5851	2007	4203	1237	1950
BAKKEN	2-2018	13	3396	3667	1225	2548	1803	294
BAKKEN	1-2018	27	7072	6663	3263	5305	3217	442

The well:

• 30863, 800, Enerplus, Burrowing 147-94-13B-24H, McGregory Buttes, 37 stages, 9.2 million lbs, t5/16; cum 439K 11/19;

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN	8-2018	22	5283	5224	2622	3962	174	2562
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	8291	8101	3836	6218	2734	1637
BAKKEN	6-2018	29	6736	7054	3354	5052	1340	2106
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	8032	7431	3681	6024	3888	436
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	5775	5900	2024	4620	3467	31
BAKKEN	3-2018	29	11442	11518	3193	8582	2436	4177
BAKKEN	2-2018	8	3229	3157	381	2422	1552	613
BAKKEN	1-2018	9	2697	2547	861	2024	1230	566
BAKKEN	12-2017	11	2939	3028	949	2204	1495	436

The Week In Pictures; Is Hillary Re-Calculating? -- January 11, 2020

The week in pictures from Power Line.

My favorites:

Was it just me, or did anyone else note how quickly the Paul Krugman story disappeared? Amazing how fast the mainstream media can forget a story when it's one of their own.

The "John Kerry" graphic below is not a joke. Serious as a heart attack.

Some time ago I mentioned that every time something significant happened in "geopolitics" Hillary would appear out of nowhere. Sometimes it would be an op-ed in The NYT; other times it would be a speech at some university, or another try at a town-hall meeting or listening tour.

The other day I noted that it had been several months since we had seen anything from Hillary. I was beginning to wonder what was going on.

It appears we may have an answer. The "political needle" wasn't moving for Hillary.

She was re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating.

She called her "would-be" cabinet and advisors. At the top of that list: John Kerry.

He agreed.

An op-ed.

"What we built."

"We": Hillary and Kerry.

No quid pro quo yet: Hillary didn't promise Kerry the VP spot nor vice versa. But both "know" there will be a brokered convention. It's gonna be a fight.

A Look At Bakken Production Data, Average Production Per Well Per Day -- January 11, 2020

At this NDIC site, click on historical monthly Bakken oil production statistics.

Monthly production data from Bakken oil wells in North Dakota.

There are seven columns.

For this post, I am looking at the last column, the seventh column: daily oil per well (average):

Observations:

• this is for newbies
• when the number is above "100" in the seventh column, it gets my attention
• the Bakken boom began in 2007 in North Dakota
• prior to the boom, the amount of oil per well (on average) was decreasing

The data, the spreadsheets:

• The data starts with December, 2005, the last spreadsheet below:
• at that time, average production from each well in the Bakken averaged on a daily basis: 20 bbls/day/well
• in July, 2007, at the beginning of the boom, the average production per well on a daily basis: 60 bbls/day/well
• by March, 2010, about the time the boom would have been at its height: 140 bbls/day/well
• Now, going to the third spreadsheet below:
• in April, 2010, daily production on average per well per day: 140 bbls/day/well
• four years later, by October, 2014, daily production on average per well per day, about the same in the big scheme of things: : 130 bbls/day/well
• Then, going to the second spreadsheet below:
• in November, 2014, daily production on average per well per day: we start at 130 bbls/day/well;
• five years later, by May, 2019, daily production on average per well per day: down to 102 bbls/day/well;
• Finally, the most recent date, the small spreadsheet directly below:
• June, 2019, daily production, on average, per well per day: 104 bbls/well/day
• most recent data available, October, 2019: 108 bbls/well/day
  

 ****************************

The Data

Observations And Comments

It makes most sense to start with the bottom-most graphic and move back up toward the top to the most recent data.

Most recently, the last five months, June, 2019 - October, 2019:

• we've plateaued at just over 100 bbls/well/day
• the trend, if anything, is moving higher, but ever so subtle
• dragging down this number are the tens of thousands of old wells that are producing so little they would be identified as stripper wells and many are
• so, if one wants to get that last column higher, all things being equal, plug and abandon some of those older wells
• interestingly enough, older, low-production Bakken wells are not being plugged and abandoned
• so, what's happening? We'll talk about that in another post

November, 2014 - May, 2019:

• this is/was a critical period
• a lot of things were happening that folks conveniently forget about
• Art Berman, et al, were forecasting the beginning of the end for the Bakken 
• production metrics across the board were falling
• but technology was getting better; what was going on?
• the Saudi tried crushing the US shale sector
• the Saudi's "trillion-dollar mistake": the Saudi surge
• 2014 - 2016, which overhang into 2017
• even for me, it was a depressing and concerning couple of years 
• but then in 2017, the numbers started to turn
• by the end of 2018, surprising naysayers, and even surprising me, average production/well/day again went over 100 bbls/day/well, and was trending higher
• one has to remember that by this time there were tens of thousands of old Bakken wells that were in serious decline and dragging the average down
• and, yet, the daily production/well/day on average was increasing, back over 100 bbls/day/well by the end of this period;

April, 2010 - November, 2014:

• in 2011, or thereabouts, average production/well/day maxed out at about 150 bbls
• by the end of 2014, average production/well/day plateaued to about 130 bbls 
• we were in a steady state, and all things being equal, the average amount of production/well/day should begin declining ... and declining significantly based on the "dreaded Bakken decline"

December, 2005 - March, 2010 

• the boom did not begin until mid-2007
• by 2005, average production per well day day in the Bakken was down to 20 bbls/day/well
• how "big" was the boom?
• five years later, average production/well/day had gone up nearly 7x to 130 - 140 bbls/day/well  

Russian, Ukraine, Natural Gas And All That Jazz -- Op-Ed Over At Bloomberg -- January 11, 2020

A reader sent me a link to a Bloomberg article on Putin, Russian, Ukraine, Europe, and natural gas. The link is here. The article is behind a paywall; I was able to access it but I've archived it for future reference.

I'll post excerpts from the article later on when I get caught up. This is a book review of The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe, by Thane Gustafson, publication date, January 7, 2020. If one can't get past the Bloomberg paywall, one can find much about the book by googling the title/author. One link is at the Harvard University Press. From that:

A noted expert on Russian energy argues that despite Europe’s geopolitical rivalries, natural gas and deals based on it unite Europe’s nations in mutual self-interest.

Three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet empire, the West faces a new era of East–West tensions. Any vision of a modern Russia integrated into the world economy and aligned in peaceful partnership with a reunited Europe has abruptly vanished.

Two opposing narratives vie to explain the strategic future of Europe, one geopolitical and one economic, and both center on the same resource: natural gas. In The Bridge, Thane Gustafson, an expert on Russian oil and gas, argues that the political rivalries that capture the lion’s share of media attention must be viewed alongside multiple business interests and differences in economic ideologies. With a dense network of pipelines linking Europe and Russia, natural gas serves as a bridge that unites the region through common interests.

Tracking the economic and political role of natural gas through several countries—Russia and Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway—The Bridge details both its history and its likely future. As Gustafson suggests, there are reasons for optimism, but whether the “gas bridge” can ultimately survive mounting geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges remains to be seen.

With regard to the Bloomberg article I replied to the reader who made a very interesting observation. This op-ed / book review completely failed to mention explicitly US exports of NGLs to Europe.

This was my reply which, if one doesn't read the Bloomberg article, may not make sense. I was going to edit my response but I'm running out of time so I will post it as is, not ready for prime time, and come back to it later, if interested. Here's my reply to the writer regarding the Bloomberg article:

Very observant. I might have missed that angle -- not a word about US exports. Wow, what blinders the writer was wearing.

It is amazing how often Ukraine is in the news. One country of hundreds, and Ukraine always seems to come up in conversation.

With this huge NG story, it is obvious what Russia, Ukraine, and Hunter Biden were up to, and Trump knew it, and either Bloomberg did not know it or he refused to print stories about the Bidens. Most likely the latter.

But until Trump mentioned it, did even 10 US senators know about the Biden crookedness? And if they did, did they care?

Finally, these writers always seem to try to find a way to put a "dig" into Trump. That was the reason I quit subscribing to the New Yorker. No matter how far removed from politics an article might be, it seemed the writer had to include a shot at Trump if she/he wanted the article to be published.

I thought it was a bit of stretch by the writer to suggest there were lessons here for Trump. Trump is simply sticking up for America; and, oh by the way, point out that it's a huge risk for Europe to put all their fossil fuel eggs into one Russian basket.

I'm not going to buy the book but maybe it will be at Barnes and Noble. I'm curious if the author even mentions Hunter Biden. If not, that will tell me all I need to know about the credibility of the writer. After all, supposedly the writer tracked everything else:

Tracking the economic and political role of natural gas through several countries—Russia and Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway—The Bridge details both its history and its likely future.

The Narrative: Week 2 -- January 5, 2020 -- January 11, 2020

The Iranian military did all they could to prevent American casualties this past week, including pre-launch warnings, and using medieval-era ballistic missiles. Iranian efforts to protect their own citizens? Not so much. Canadian casualties. Perhaps Canadian. More likely elite Iranians with dual passports; in other words, Canadians in name only (CINOs).

Pet peeve re-posted:

All the news outlets are doing it -- from most conservative to most liberal. Even after we know the plane was shot down by a Soviet-made missile, fired by an Iranian, news outlets continue to refer to it as a "plane crash."

Using the same analogy, the general that was targeted the other day was killed in a minor fender-bender. 

Back to the Bakken.

Considering how mature the Bakken is, there was a remarkable amount of news in the Bakken this past week.

It certainly appears the biggest Bakken story was the Outrigger-XOM deal. I finally understand "separation" of NGLs, and specifically "cryogenic separation" of NGLs. The process separates out methane as a gas from the rest of the "wet gases." After methane is streamed off, re-warming whatever is left over at various temperatures will further separate gases into pure states. The "boiling point" is the temperature at which liquids turn to gas (and vice versa, at "standard pressure"):

• methane: -258.7° F
• ethane: -128.2° F
• propane: -43.6° F
• butane:  30.2° F

There's a huge gap between methane and ethane. Bring temperature down to  -130° F and the gases all turn to liquid except methane which will still stream away as a gas.

Bring the temperature back up to -120° F, and the ethane will go back into "gas" and will stream away from the rest of the wet gases.

Repeat, at -40°, and propane will return to gaseous state and stream away from butane and the other wet gases.

Note: the boiling points were taken from internet sources; the "rounded numbers" were mine, just as examples, they could be off a bit, and not necessarily what Outrigger will "use."

One would think that all things being equal this might be beneficial to mom-and-pop mineral owners in the Bakken. I don't know.

I didn't include a Platts story as a top story this week, for obvious reasons, but a reader was kind enough to comment on the story. See comments at that link. Both the reader and I think the story is an "old" story -- nothing new. But I think there's something else to note. Facts/factoids/observations:

• there are a dozen or more crude oil shale plays in the US
• the three major crude oil plays in the US right now: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian
• the Permian is now capturing 99%+ of all media, all business stories, about US shale
• we hear very little of the Eagle Ford any more
• we hear very little, in the national news, of the Bakken any more
• it's all about the Permian
• one of the big stories coming out of the shale plays in the past year was the downspacing/infill/development story: operators are still trying to work out the best spacing
• I think most folks thought those downspacing/infill stories were coming out of all the shale plays
• it's my hunch that 99% of these stories are coming out of the Permian
• I have seen no stores about similar issues in the Bakken
• quite the contrary: if anything, Bakken operators are putting more wells closer together than ever before
• it appears that the shale plays in the US are not "equal" -- not equal at all in so many respects
• so, for me, as 2020 begins, I do not see the downspacing/infill issues in the Bakken that others are talking about -- which I think has to do with the Permian

The biggest story this past week: Mideast tensions surge; ballistic missiles are launched against US forces in Iraq; a top terrorist killed; a commercial is downed with a Soviet-made, Iranian-fired missile, killing 176; and what happens? WTI slumps below $60, barely hanging on to the 59-handle at the end of the week. Wow!

Two big stories coming out of the US this past week:

• exports surge, setting a week-over-week record; surging 30% week-over-week; and, 
• the Gulf of Mexico sets an all-time production record of 2 million bopd (about the same ballpark figure as the Bakken -- 1.5 million bopd

On another note, talking about cryogenics, I was curious:

• record wind chill temperature in North Dakota: -98° F; 
• ironically, the coldest "real-temperature" in North Dakota was recorded in the heart of the Bakken in 1936, Parshall, ND, -60° F; 

By the way, why is butane a liquid at room temperature?

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- January 11, 2020

Politics: a new Iowa poll, a DMR/CNN poll (wow, this will be credible -- LOL) just released --

• the media will report that Sanders takes the lead in Iowa but it's a statistical tie for the top four
• Sanders (20%); Pocahontas (17%); Buttigieg (16%); and Biden (15%)
• if the  mainstream media wants to call Sanders "leading" in Iowa, they need to note that Biden is dead last among those who will actually compete for delegates;
• others: Steyer (2%); Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind (6%)

Further comments on that Iowa poll:

• Sanders leading? Remember -- this was a Des Moines Register / CNN poll; I cannot think of any two more liberal outlets; of course Sanders and Pocahontas would be leading in these polls;
• right now, most likely Democrat ticket: Sanders-Pocahontas; Pocahontas will gladly accept VP role; first, she can always say she was the VP with high cheekbones, and she knows Sanders has ... well .... a questionable heart ...
• the poll included -- thank you very much -- Bloomberg who has written off Iowa; is not campaigning there; and will not participate in the caucuses;
• numerous stories about how all-white Iowa is relevant in the 21st century for these kinds of things; of course that brings us to all-white New Hampshire;
• numerous articles about how the Iowa caucuses favor those who have nothing else to do: college students; college professors; political wonks -- to participate in caucuses folks must actually show up at locations such as private homes, sit around for a few hours, listening to political "speeches" and then "vote"; it is not designed for those folks who actually have to show up for work or who have young children to care for;

Autos: back to the snap quiz earlier. I heard this on the radio this morning -- not sure show accurate, but here's a link:

• #1 selling sedan in the US for the past 14, maybe 15, years: Toyota Camry; #8 among all vehicles in 2019;
• #1 selling vehicle and #1 selling pickup in the US: Ford F-series (896,526 vehicles)
• #2 selling vehicle in the US: Ram pickup (633,694 vehicles)
• #3 selling vehicle in the US: another pickup -- the Chevrolet Silverado (575,600 units)
• #1 SUV and #4 vehicle in the US: the Toyota RAV4 (448,071 units)
• #5 vehicle; #2 SUV in the US: the Honda CR-V (384,168 units)
• #3 SUV in the US: the Nissan Rogue (350,447 units)
• #2 sedan, #9 among all vehicles, right behind the Toyota Camry: the Honda Civic -- my current car;
• #3 sedan, #10 among all vehicles: the Toyota Corolla -- my first non-US car bought back in 1980 or thereabouts; one of the best cars I ever had;
• #4 sedan, #11 among all vehicles: the Honda Accord

EVs: didn't see any on the top 20 list.

No-show: speaking of EVs, almost no manufacturers are reporting sales any more. Wow.  Folks buying shares in Tesla have no idea how many vehicles are actually being sold.

Week 2: January 5, 2020 -- January 11, 2020

Top blog stories of the week:

• Outrigger-XOM deal.
• Gulf of Mexico hits record daily production;
• California-based utility to open regional HQ center in Houston;

Narrative: link here;

International non-energy story:

• Terrorist killed in fender-bender; plane crashes upon takeoff;

International energy story:

• Mideast erupts; WTI barely holds at $59;
• North American blowing away the rest of the world in new pipeline;
• Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves surge after IPO launched;

National non-energy story:

• US economy on fire; another incredible jobs report; Dow briefly touches 29,000 for first time ever (and that's despite the implosion of Boeing common stock); market rally likely to continue; ADP jobs report; market rally just getting started? private payroll growth surges;
• US trade deficit plunges to more than 3-year low;
• AAPL;

National energy story:

• Cost of renewables: apparently solar/wind is not free; can't "guarantee" stability of the grid;
• Making Texas great: the top largest planned petrochemical and plastics plants;
• US crude oil exports surge; up over 30% week-over-week; and, here;
• WPX acquires Felix Energy;

North Dakota non-energy story:

North Dakota energy story:

• Outrigger-XOM deal

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

• Trump to modernize the National Environment Policy Act (NEPA); to streamline permitting of infrastructure projects;
• Beams arrive for new Long X Bridge: 156-foot long pre-stressed concrete beams;
• Highway 85: carries more oversize truck traffic than either I-94 or I-29;

• NDPC's Ron Ness -- Bakken -- the best is yet to come;
• Six wind farms miss deadline for installing new tower lighting systems

Big wells:

• #30541, Bruin, Fort Berthold; 600,000 bbls in less than two years;
• #33412, MRO, Winona, half-a-million bbls in less than two years;
• Kraken Bigfoot wells in the Sanish;
• Newfield Hoffmann wells in Siverston oil field;

Operations:

• Hess reports great wells in Blue Buttes; 
• Two rigs on CLR's 18-well Angus Federal pad;
• CLR's Long Creek Unit updated; two rigs in play;
• Equinor reports completion of nine DUCs;

Fracking:

• Halo effect on many, many wells near the Kraken Bigfoot wells;
• 100-stage wells; 20+ million lbs of sand; 3-section long fracks;
• Halo effect: Newfield Siverston wells;
• CLR's Florida well: halo effect;
• Huge jump in production: Enerplus' Wind well in Mandaree oil field;

Refineries:

• ND $800-million, greenfield, Theodore-Roosevelt refinery in trouble;

Bakken 101:

• Cryogenic separation of NGLs explained in layman's language;
• Rig counts -- Rigzone commentary;

Other formations:

• Lodgepole well update;

Photography:

• Fargo, then and now;
• Hill AFB "elephant walk";

Miscellanous:

• Well permitted in 2012, finally drilled/completed eight years later;
• Geico Rock Award nominee. First for 2020: The Financial Times;

Humor:

• Democrats call for flags to be flown at half-mast to grieve death of Soleimani;