Friday, February 13, 2026

Hegseth: "We're Gonna Need More Pizzas" -- February 13, 2026

Locator: 49969WAR. 

WTI: $62.89. My hunch: it will be a lot different next week. 

Mideast: The US is sending its largest warship the USS Gerald R Ford to the Middle East.

Maduro: the Pentagon used Anthropic's Claude in the Maduro Venezuela raid.   

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The Book Page

Today's book: Joseph Conrad, Adam Gillon, c. 1982. 

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Hess With Four New Permits In Manitou Oil Field

Locator: 49968B. 

WTI:

Active rigs:

Five new permits, #42714 - #42718, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (4); Phoenix Operating
  • Fields: Manitou (Mountrail County); Skabo (Divide)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Brynn Ferrari well, NENW 22-160-98, 
      • to be sited 900 FNL and 1915 FWL;
  • Hess has permits for four EN-Aicha wells, lot 3, section 3-155-94, 
    • to be sited 538 / 579 FNL and 2215 / 2305 FWL; 
    • interesting spacing: sections 27 and 34 (1280 acres), W/2 section 15 (320 acres), E/2 section section 16 (320 acres), E/2 of NW/4 of section 16 (80 acres), E/2 E/2 of section 21 (160 acres), the W/2 of section 22 (320 acres), the W/2 of SE/4 of section 22 (80 acres) - T156N, range 94W. If I did the math correct: 1280+320+320+80+160+320+80? = 2560 acres? Feel free to check. Based on those sections, these wells would run north.

There's already a permit for #42388 at that same location: 593 FNL and 2335 FWL: EN-Lalim B-156-94-3427H-1. Spacing unit: sections 27 / 34 - T156N-R94W, 1280 - acres; which means it also runs north. These wells are in the White Earth Valley area; southeast of Tioga, and not too far from the Cottonwood oil field.

There are already a lot of active wells in that area. Looking at one:

  • 39657, F/A, Hess, EN-Enger -156-94-1423H-8, Big Butte, 1280 acres, t8/23; cum 377K 12/25; initial production, a very nice well, spud, May 26, 2023, cease drilling June 2, 2023; seven days start to finish; frack data appears not to have been scanned in yet: at FracFocus, link here.
BAKKEN9-20243088688866203894137240963409
BAKKEN8-2024311036510358117652949529059436
BAKKEN7-202431907590801061426599235803019
BAKKEN6-2024301189511899132374559345088505
BAKKEN5-2024311407214097144785033749692645
BAKKEN4-2024301612616091147684396743168799
BAKKEN3-2024311681816833139323370232871831
BAKKEN2-2024291997319986142384155940700859
BAKKEN1-20243124844248301645443126415631563
BAKKEN12-2023311915019129168782645525622833
BAKKEN11-20232616674167131432224008230081000
BAKKEN10-202331302663030122133451742662918545
BAKKEN9-20233044981450584663554304487095595
BAKKEN8-202331621556192897050382152772410491
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Alison's Quick Connects -- February 13, 2026

Locator: 49967B. 

Quick connects:

• Basin seeks approval for last 2 transmission lines in North Dakota loop -- Bismarck Tribune
• North Dakota aims for smoother families' enrollment for home heating aid -- Minot Daily News
• UND-led project strengthens US "mine-to-battery" pathway for next-gen drone power -- UND
• 400 barrels of crude oil released in spill about three miles northeast of Arnegard -- KX News
• Five North Dakotans have announced their candidacy for the state's U.S. House seat -- Dickinson Press
• Ruling against the tide, ND judge denies emergency petitions for Minnesota ICE detainees -- InForum
• Total of seventeen North Dakota agencies sign up for voluntary job buyout program -- North Dakota Monitor
• New campgrounds and expansion underway in Rough Rider and Pembina Gorge State Parks -- KFYR-TV
• Murphy announces reelection campaign for North Dakota House of Representatives -- Grand Forks Herald
• Jamestown resident becomes third Democrat to campaign for US House seat -- North Dakota Monitor
• Measles case reported in Pembina County; second case in North Dakota this year -- Dickinson Press
• State spreads wealth to help communities celebrate America's 250th birthday -- North Dakota Monitor
• North Dakota health leaders see new federal funding as turning point for rural patients -- Dickinson Press
• Kylan Klauzer and Vicky Steiner received Republican endorsement from District 37 -- Dickinson Press
• Dunn County commissioners discuss road priorities alongside community projects -- Dickinson Press
• Golden Valley County officials discuss tax changes, road projects at township meeting -- Dickinson Press
• Two of three County Commissioners in Williams County up for election say they plan on running -- KFYR-TV
• $1.6 million communication overhaul proposed for McKenzie County -- McKenzie County Farmer
• Shawn Roness announces candidacy in Williston mayoral race; refers to it as a calling -- Williston Herald
• Williston Mayor Howard Klug will not seek fourth term after more than eleven years in office -- KFYR-TV
• Turtle Mountain awarded $9,000 from ND250 Commission for public historical exhibit -- Minot Daily News
• Watford City Police Department to dedicate Braddock Memorial Drive to WCPD fallen officer -- KX News
• City gives day care additional funding; Spirit Fund board at odds with council over allocations -- The Journal
• District 26 Republican Party gathers for endorsement convention in Watford City -- Dickinson Press
• In 1st month, ND free school meals group gets one-third of signatures needed for ballot -- Bismarck Tribune
• West Fargo electrical trade school expands access to western North Dakota students -- InForum
• Farm to School Grant Award applications now accepted from North Dakota elementary teachers -- KFGO
• Dickinson Public Schools victimized by email scam; $4.92M paid to fraudulent account -- Bismarck Tribune
• Williston high schoolers demonstrate for public what they've been learning at CTE Showcase -- KFYR-TV
• Grand Forks superintendent reflects on budget realignment after $4.4M in cuts -- Grand Forks Herald
• Minot Public School Board approves sale of Bell school building at its regular meeting -- Minot Daily News
• Surrey Public School's four-day school week prompts students' mental health improvement -- KFYR-TV
• Energy secretary calls for emphasis on fossil fuels to keep power on in winter storms -- North Dakota Monitor
• Argentina and US sign expansive trade deal to slash tariffs and boost a political alliance -- KX News
• Trump administration seeks to loosen environmental regulations to 'unleash' nuclear energy -- The Hill
• Oil supply a localized concern; supply chain disruptions result from international conflict -- RealClearEnergy
• Trump administration giving more time for cleanup requirements for hundreds of coal ash sites -- E&E News
• India's coal demand could more than double by 2050 from current levels under current policies -- Oil Price
• Texas family raffling off 100 acres of mineral rights for $4 per ticket; winner to get $1,000,000 -- The Hill
• Trump directs Pentagon to boost coal use as Energy Dept announces $175M infusion for plants -- The Hill
• US energy secretary meets Venezuela's president as they face Herculean task of oil recovery -- Reuters
• With electricity bills rising, leaders in at least a dozen states consider new data center laws -- Stateline
• Coal power saved Americans $30-40 billion in 2025, proving to be grid reliability MVP -- Count on Coal
• House Ways & Means Committee hearing spotlights foreign funding of U.S. climate litigation -- EID Climate
• Repealing the Endangerment Finding shows CO2 was never an "existential threat" -- RealClearEnergy
• Legal experts warn repeal of climate rule needs good strategy to survive activist lawsuits -- Just The News
• Why climate science is not "settled," the claim reflects political arrogance, not reality -- CO2 Coalition
• How the EPA's Endangerment Finding was pre-cooked, and why it's now unraveling -- Irrational Fear 
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Venezuelan Oil-Money Now Being Deposited In The US -- February 13, 2026

Locator: 49966VENEZUELA. 

Link here. 

It will be interesting to see how President Trump redistributes this money to the poor in Venezuela -- maybe using the same methods at Evanston, IL, is using to distribute reparations -- link here -- just at much higher levels. For example, $1 million to each of 500 Venezuelans this month.

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Influenza Update: Week 5, 2026 -- Posted February 11, 2026

Locator: 49965_FLU5. 

Because of AI (chatbots), I have never felt so comfortable with my understanding of seasonal flu as I do now -- influenza A and B.

So, generally speaking there are two waves of influenza every season between October and May.

Today, a reply from Google Gemini said there were many reasons for those two waves, the lead reason being the "drift" of the antigenic strain over the season.

Google Gemini then said, as an example, the strain would drift from H3N1 to H1N2. 

In fact, that is so wrong. First of all, H3N1 and H1N2 are not strains, but rather sub-types.

Influenza:

  • A, B, C, D: the four types of influenza
    • type D, only recently discovered, affects cattle, never affects humans (not yet, and probably never)
    • type A: multiple sub-types, not strains; determined by surface antigens; HxNx; only two surface antigens: H and N;
    • type B: has no subtypes, only two lineages, which further branch into specific strains; the two lineages: B/Yamagata and B/Victoria; B/Yamagata has not been seen since 2000 (interesting, the year of Covid-19)
  • influenza B changes much more slowly and primarily affects humans

So, now, with that information we can follow "antigenic drift" for the rest of the 2025 - 2026 seasonal flu season.

First, week five (5) of 2026, ending February 7, 2026:

  • where are we?
    • end of the first wave
    • beginning of the second wave, just beginning; off to a slow start
    • overall, all influenza (A and B) has decreased significantly since the start of the season, last autumn, 2025, but is now picking up slowly;
  • since last week:
    • percent of influenza A has decreased very slightly week/week and influenza B has increased slightly, but at a rate higher than last week (again, as percentages but also as raw numbers);
  • now this is the interesting part:
    • earlier Google Gemini said the antigenic drift was due to subtype drift (H, N) so let's check that drift.
      • subtyping (remember, the type is A or B) has remained relatively unchanged for Type A
    • H1N1 (pdm09) [see below] -- absolutely unchanged from last week:
      • September 28, 2025 (week 40): 11.5%
      • Week 4, 2026: 14.6%
    • H3N2 -- absolutely unchanged from last week:
      • September 28, 2025 (week 40): 88.4%
      • Week 4, 2026: 85.4% 
    • H3N2v: 0% at week 40 (2025) and week 5 (2026) [v = variant; usually swine]
    • H5: 0% at week 40 (2025) and week 5 (2026) [A(H5) = avian]. See link.

So, minimal increase of H1N1 and slight decrease in H3N2. This is not antigenic drift. I had this slightly wrong last week.

This year's trivalent flu vaccine:

  • H1N1, H3N2, and B/Victoria.

I finally get it although I continue to make content and typographical errors on the blog. 

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Now, The Graphs

So, far, the second wave is getting off to a very slow start. Is this due to warm winter? Folks spending less time indoors?
 

 

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Cramer's First Ten Minutes -- February 13, 2026

Locator: 49982CRAMER. 

January Consumer Price Index: y/y 2.4% vs 2.5% estimate. 

Investing: this is for the extended family only, not for general readership. This is not an investment site. This is the fastest way I can reach the extended family. I continue to deplete my personal portfolio and transfer it to grandchildren accounts. Today, I added significantly to WMT, AAPL, and AVGO in the account for two of the grandchildren. 

Investment horizon: I still maintain an investment horizon of 30 years plus one day. 

DraftKings: story of the day? Misses estimates. Guidance apparently not helpful. Hurt by prediction markets. Shares tank: DKNG down 13%. Completely unexpected. It's all about the prediction markets. 

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   
    • Posted by at

    Influenza Update -- Number 5 -- 2025 - 2026 Season -- Posted February 13, 2026

    Locator: 49981INFLUENZA. 

    See this post first.  

    Now, number 5 update.


     

    Posted by at

    Macroeconomics -- February 13, 2026

    Locator: 49980MACROECONOMICS. 

    It's amazing how much a solid book (in this case John Cassidy's Capitalism and Its Critics, c. 2025, and Google Gemini / ChatGPT can summarize an undergraduate year of macroeconomics in less than a concentrated 72 hours of study. Truly, truly amazing.

    From ChatGPT after a long dialogue overnight with my friend who never sleeps: 

    • WWI breaks the old order → 
    • Keynes diagnoses the failure → 
    • WWII decides the hegemon → 
    • Bretton Woods institutionalizes managed capitalism under U.S. leadership → 
    • Nixon breaks the gold constraint to preserve U.S. flexibility → 
    • Trump exposes the political exhaustion of being system manager. 

    Slight expansion:

    • WWI --> Paris Peace Conference --> Keynes
    • WWII --> beginning of unparalleled global economic growth for the next 75 years --> US / UK hegemon
    • Keynes (UK economist) / White (US Treasury) --> Bretton Woods, NH --> need for global "management"
      • established the IMF (International Monetary Fund)
      • established an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (later called the World Bank)
      • established the International Trade Organization: work to reduce tariffs and other barriers to trade
      • 1947: US signed along with 23 other nations, a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which led to opening up of markets
      • would lead to long-running rounds of negotiation
    • LBJ/US inflation --> Nixon
      • Nixon Shock 1971: collapse of gold standard --> fiat 
    • (Friedman / Hayek)
    • US exhaustion as system manager --> Trump

    "Collapse to fiat" after Nixon: "collapse to fiat" means that the US dollar was cut off from the discipline of the gold standard, transitioning to a system based on government decree that allows for unchecked, politically driven money creation.

    That's my scaffolding from which I can now work.

    Right, wrong, indifferent -- that's where I can start.  

    I won't entertain comments from anyone who has not read John Cassidy's Capitalism and Its Critics, c. 2025. I will know if you have a copy of his book by telling me the last word on page 274 of the hardcopy edition of that book.

    Posted by at

    Cutting Their Losses Quickly -- This Won't Be The Last -- February 13, 2026

    Locator: 49979EPSTEIN. 

    Link here. 

    I find this incredible / "beyond the pale" that a lawyer with such stature would feel the need to be "chummy" with Epstein.

    No matter how much they deny it, anyone who visited "the island" had to have know what was going on. People talk. The ultimate playground. A little something for everyone. 

    Same with Germans during the Holocaust. 

    Posted by at

    Apple -- Analyst Upgrade -- February 13, 2026

    Locator: 49978INVESTING. 

    Tag: Apple AAPL 

    Link here. Raises target price from $325 to $340.

    *************************
    Meanwhile 

    The rumor that started all of this -- never mind. Link here. It gets tedious.


    But an incredible buying opportunity.
     
    This is not an investment site. For my extended family only -- not for general readership -- I will be adding significantly to my AAPL and WMT positions later today. And possibly Broadcom. 

    **********************************
    Disclaimer
    Briefly

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

    • Posted by at

    Friday The Thirteenth -- February 13, 2026

    Locator: 49977B. 

    Celebrity donations: link here. Posting dollar amounts are unnecessary. I would even argue that mentioning any contributions at all are unnecessary and obscene for lack of a better word. Is $25,000 from a centi-millionaire (a billionaire?) an insult? How did one arrive at that figure and what will the next celebrity be worth. A matching contribution to the homeless? Eulogies should be the "bar." And eulogies should be meaningful and specific, not boilerplate. 

    *****************************
    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: $63.01.

    New wells reporting:

    • Sunday, February 15, 2026: 22 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 75 for the year,
      • 41333, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-LE-149-100-1003H-1, 
    • Saturday, February 14, 2026: 21 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year,
      • 41816, conf, BR, Rolla 6C, 
    • Friday, February 13, 2026: 20 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year,
      • 41353, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-2, 

    RBN Energy: proposed refinery-tax law pits Utah against its neighbors. Link here. Not interested.

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