Today: Netflix leads the S&P 500.
- currently: 200 million subscribers
- 2030, projection: 500 million subscribers, link here;
At the sidebar at the right, I have a link to "The Next Big Thing."
The original post is dated March 21, 2013. The series began with my interest in Netflix.
Flashback.
Original Post
First Posted March 21, 2013
I think everyone enjoys trying to predict the "next big thing." Or at least "a" next big thing.
I was reminded of that at your school's book fair earlier this afternoon. I happened to see "Lego Crazy Action Contraptions" by Klutz.
Thirty years ago I started a Lego collection that eventually took on a
life of its own. Our older daughter, your mom, never enjoyed Legos. Our
younger daughter loves them as much today as she did then. For awhile,
it looked like Lego might not survive (maybe ten, fifteen years ago).
And then, with some incredible marketing efforts the company has
thrived. Klutz's "Lego Crazy Action Contraptions" was another reminder
of folks thinking outside the box.
At the book fair, I saw that Skippyjon Jones has a new book, Cirque de Ole.
I happened to run across Skippyjon Jones some years ago, when it first
came out, and could tell it was going to be huge, and it appears that it
has. Good for Judy Schachner.
Years ago, before it was available, I saw a story in some now-defunct
news magazine and told my wife that the "PT Cruiser" would be a huge
hit. And it was.
Likewise, before the first episode of "30 Rock" aired, I knew that Tina
Fey would be big; I just never imagined that BIG. I didn't think the
show would do all that well (I was wrong) but that Tina Fey would do
well.
I knew the iPad was going to be huge; I don't recall thinking much about
the iPhone, but I knew the iPad had more uses than skeptics realized.
The iPad has yet to live up to its potential but that's just a matter of
time. (I knew the "netbook" was doomed the minute I saw it. I think the "Surface" is likewise doomed.)
Back in 2007, when I started the milliondollarway blog, I knew the
Bakken was going to be big. I didn't think it would be that BIG, but for
North Dakota, I thought it would rank right up there with the last
boom. Wow, was I wrong. The Bakken is much bigger than I ever imagined.
By the way, I deleted that first blog in a fit of insanity one night,
and then started all over. I think the current milliondollarway blog
dates back to 2009. I could be wrong. Haven't checked lately.
With regard to the Bakken, the biggest surprise: multi-well pads and rail.
My son-in-law thinks Vudu will be the next big thing. Perhaps in time.
But not for awhile. Our discussion began with Apple and iTV. I suggested
that "it" was all about "content," and, of course, that brought us to
Netflix, Vudu, and Hulu. Vudu and Hulu have access to new movies sooner
than Netflix. Yet Netflix is still well ahead of anyone else in that
sector.
That made me question my assumption that "it" was all about "content." I
think I'm wrong. "Content" is important, but within a month of release,
new movies are available everywhere, so "content" alone is not the
discriminator. "Content" is quickly becoming a commodity (with notable
exceptions: NFL network, "made-for-Netflix" movies, as prime examples).
Once "content" is a commodity, then something else drives the sector.
So, if it's not "content," what is it? "Accessibility." Accessibility
includes "ease" of accessibility. All demographics can reach Netflix.
Even my parents, well into their 80's and 90's can use snail mail to
order Netflix DVDs, but unless it has to do with fishing, my dad would
have no idea what "streaming" is, much less be able to access it.
So, we'll see. For $7.99/month I have unlimited and "easy" access to
Netflix; for $5.99 I can stream one movie from Vudu or pay "Target-" or
"Wal-Mart-price" for the DVD itself.
US mail and $7.99 / month /
unlimited still beats the alternative. So we'll see. Vudu might be the
next big thing but I don't see that for a few years. At least.
Back packs will become "a" next big thing. They already are in urban settings, not so much in rural areas.
I think LNG corridors will be "a" next big thing.
I think Facebook will surprise us; it will be "a" next big thing but
only after it evolves to the next level to include a) gaming; b) better
search; c) a music module; d) a YouTube-like video module; and, e)
easier "home page" development.
All-electric vehicles as family cars are "dead." Hybrids aren't dead but
it will be a long, steady slog for them to become mainstream.
Free wi-fi everywhere is just a matter of time. I don't know if one
would call "free wi-fi everywhere" "a next big thing" but within a few
years coffee shops won't stay in business if they don't offer free
wi-fi. I do think that someone could yet come up with with a Barnes and
Noble bookstore-coffee shop-internet cafe business plan that would
work. Except for college-centric Starbucks, most Starbucks coffee shops
are pretty quiet after 6:00 pm. Just the opposite for most retail when
they are very, very quiet before 10:00 am.
That brings us to a "cashless" society. Cyprus may be a "cashless"
society by next Monday. Apple stores are cashless [update, April 16, 2015: according to Apple employee this past week, Apple retail stores will take cash]. I do think someone
big is going to go cashless and that will change everything. Could
Wal-Mart go cashless? For those who don't have a credit card, or some
type of mobile payment (SmartPhone, for example), they pay for a company
cash card at customer service when they come in the door.
