Locator: 45207INV.
QCOM Vs TSM, link here.
Snapshot:
Knowing their business and looking at their numbers, advantage: TSM.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 37.
WTI: $79.63.
Four new permits, #40072 - #40075, inclusive:
Five permits renewed:
Locator: 45205DIV.
Updates
July 26, 2023: yes, I was correct; the information at the original post was in error. It is a fact that the quarterly dividend was a bit higher than a year ago, but it did not increase month-over-month as implied b the source. The $1.79 is an annual rate. Link here.
Original Post
I think it has to be an error. I think the $1.79 in the graphic below is an annual calculation based on a quarterly dividend of 44.75 cents, unchanged from previous. This has happened before at this site.
Locator: 45204EVS.
From the linked article:
DETROIT – General Motors CEO Mary Barra blamed a supplier of automation equipment for the slow ramp of its new electric vehicles, after Wall Street criticized the company’s rollout of its newest EVs amid bold predictions to catch up to industry leader Tesla
Shares of GM were down roughly 4% in morning trading Tuesday despite quarterly results that topped year-ago performance
Analysts during the call questioned the company’s pricing strategies, EV profitability guidance and ability to hit previously announced targets for the vehicles.
Mary: you play the hand you were dealt.
Tesla, Apple, Daimler -- they all have the same challenges.
Also, the Chevy Bolt is not what the analysts want to talk about. Not said, but the Chevy Volt / Bolt is beginning to look a lot like ... the Ford Edsel.
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An Abundance Of Riches
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Recent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Tournament
Dallas, TX
Sophia earned a "silver" medal.
Three tournaments in past six months: three medals -- bronze, gold, and now a silver.
Locator: 45203ECON
Updates
August 4, 2023: this is an old presentation but it provides a definition of "savings." The presentation here, see slide 11. "Savings = income - spending."
US household "savings" collapsing: "area under the curve" ... graph. Link here.
Mainstream media and armchair analysts are misreading and mis-interpreting the chart above but I can't articulate the problem. You are on your own here.
However, today the updated MMF chart was released:
Same question for two different audiences:
No answer is wrong.
But, wow, as a long-term investor, I love the second graph.
It was reported elsewhere that the most recent MMF data showed a slight decline. Obviously not the case based on the graph above.
The second graph might not mean as much if the securities market was collapsing and folks were pulling their money out of the stock market and investing in much safer money market funds. But, in fact, the stock market has been on a 12-day rally, the longest in six or more years, and yet more money is flowing into MMFs.
Bonds? I don't follow bonds, but it's my impression a lot of money is also flowing into bonds because of their great rates.
Where is that money coming from? Which by the way, is one of my favorite lines from a Colombo episode, "just where is that money coming from?"
Savings:
As mentioned some time ago, I don't understand where / how the US government measures savings rate. The well-to-do, I imagine consider a lot of their investments in MMFs, shot-term bonds, and even some securities as "savings" and don't really have much in their bank "savings accounts.“
Elderly widows pulling money out of savings accounts to put in MMFs is not exactly a real decrease in their savings.
So, unless I'm missing something, we have a lot of "new" money coming into the market, into MMFs, and into bonds. Again, from where is that money coming? And how far down into the general economy does it trickle? It's just hard for me to believe if folks are able to put this much money in MMFs, securities, and bonds, they don’t also have money to spend on consumer goods.
Maybe I'm wrong, naive. Whatever.
But they are fascinating graphs.
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The Book Club
The Custer Companion: A Comprehensive Guide to the Life of George Armstrong Custer and the Plains Indians Wars, Thom Hatch, c. 2002. 973.8HAT.
Locator: 45201AAPL.
Personnel changes: this is pretty exciting. Over at Chevron, the CTO will be "promoted" to CFO. This speaks volumes about the role AI may play in Chevron's future. Link here. Much more at the link.
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The Market
On a very slow day on the market and a day before JPow raises rates by another 25 basis points, AAPL opens incredibly strong.
Meanwhile, the "oils" are down.
An analyst wrote yesterday that those holding these have myopic vision. A reader sent me the link, thank you. That analyst is completely accurate. Myopic vision is "short-sighted." Those holding these are investing for the long term.
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The Book Club
London 1945: Life In The Debris Of War, Maureen Waller. c. 2004. 940.53WAL.
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Updating File Photo
Locator: 45200CALIFORNIA.
An inconvenient truth: due to its tax structure and Proposition 13, California's state budget is highly dependent on high-wage earners or those with lots of passive income (old money).
California's high-tax payers include:
Is that California's economy? Yes, except I "forgot" one: tourism.
But the service industry doesn't pay their hotel bed-changers much.
Think about these factoids.
Tech can easily move. Tesla did. Arizona, Texas benefitting.
Population shifts as high tax-payers "flee" to states like Idaho and Texas.
That puts a huge strain on the California budget.
Not yet talked about, but the longer this goes on, the greater impact it will have on the California budget: the actors' and writers' strike.
On a completely different note, but here in Texas, I'm seeing a lot of brand new $70,000-pickup trucks in front of Dollar Store and Family Dollar. Something tells me a lot of those pickup trucks are going to end up back on dealers' lots. Sooner than later.
On yet another note, this article is behind a paywall over at The LA Times but one can read about him elsewhere.
Locator: 45199INV.
Right now there are three leaders in three different sectors, and some might argue their lead is insurmountable in the short- to mid-term:
Let's expand that list, but I'm less sure of the following than the above. But for discussion:
That's "fifteen." I think TSM could be moved to one of the top three or top ten.
A few more, even less sure. These are (currently) top in their sectors, but the sectors are lousy sectors to be in or very, very crowded sectors or sectors about which I know very little or very hard to predict:
So, there we have a portfolio of 20 blue-chip, big cap stocks, with an exception or two.
For mid-cap and small-cap, I have no idea.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Locator: 45198TECH.
The Business Insider website is one of "cleanest" pages on the web. In addition, it highlights just five stories on its "front" page. A very, very clean site. It's the first business / investing site I visit every day, followed by CNBC for the "market crawler" and then Yahoo!Finance to type in ticker symbols.
From Business Insider today (same link as above):
Out of a gazillion companies that Busineess Insider could have focused on today, out of a gazillion -- it picked this one.
Right now there are three leaders in three different sectors, and some might argue their lead is insurmountable in the short- to mid-term:
Investors: ask yourself which sector(s) will see the most explosive growth ever seen over the next twenty years. Remember, the EV mandate on the West Coast:
Locator: 45197INV.
Barron's posted this just before the expected "rate increase" tomorrow.
By the way, with regard to tomorrow, it will be a huge surprise if JPow doesn't announce anything but a 25-bp-jump in the "Fed rate."
How does Mr Market feel about that?
Pre-market today:
Tech, fashion, or luxury brand?
Back to that Barron's link:
Locator: 45196WIND.
See this post from yesterday for background.
July 25, 2023: hope springs eternal.
Locator: 45195PIPELINES.
I think that this may be one of the biggest, most under-reported stories of the year.
Can you imagine selling 40% of yours to "cover" a huge disappointment?
Now, from Rigzone via X today:
Locator: 45194TECH. Tag: NVDA.
Tech:
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TSM:
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And, Of Course
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
This slide continues to haunt me:
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Brief Disclaimer
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Locator: 45193B.
Updates
Later, 4:48 p.m. CDT: link here --
Refinery shut in: link here.
Original Post
Locator: 45191B.
Gasoline, the price: all of a sudden, a number of stories on sudden rise in price of gasoline.
Of course, again, most stories, tweets, x-notes without analysis.
Locator: 45193B.
Geo-politics: yesterday I posted this --
Body counts: Vietnam. Based on body counts, the US was winning that war also. Until it wasn't.
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Back To Regular Programming
Holding pattern: until tomorrow afternoon.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $78.24. Can't sustain $79.
Wednesday, July 26, 2023: 86 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 449 for the year
39509 conf, CLR, Vance 4-14H,
39476 conf, Ovintiv, Newman 150-97-21-16-6HR,
RBN Energy: Canadian gas market slowly rebalancing thanks to improved exports, less production.
In natural gas markets, warmer-than-average winters usually translate into oversupply conditions as heating demand draws less gas out of storage than what would normally be expected. When compounded by rapidly rising domestic production and soft gas exports, the result is even greater oversupply. That is exactly how the Canadian gas market finished the most recent heating season, facing a substantial oversupply of gas that, if it persisted, could result in domestic gas storage reaching capacity well before the start of the next heating season. However, when it comes to natural gas markets, or any other market for that matter, expect the unexpected. Gradually improving demand and export conditions, combined with a significant decline in domestic gas production event in Western Canada, has rapidly shifted the market from substantial to slight oversupply in a matter of months. This has reduced downward pressure on prices and created conditions that might lead to a more manageable storage level before the next heating season gets underway. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what has been generating the rapid shift in Canadian gas market balances this summer.
