Pages

Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Technology: QCOM Vs TSM -- Motley Fool -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45207INV. 

QCOM Vs TSM, link here.


Snapshot:

  • QCOM:
    • market cap: $140 billion
    • p/e: 13
    • hi / lo: 158 - 101
    • today: 125
    • one year: down 16%
  • TSM:
    • market cap: $480 billion
    • p/e: 17
    • hi / lo: 110 - 60
    • today: 100
    • one year: up almost 20%

Knowing their business and looking at their numbers, advantage: TSM.

Trending Toward $80; Dow: Longest Rally Since 2017 -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45206WTI. 

Market today, close and after GOOG reported earnings:


**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $79.63.

Four new permits, #40072 - #40075, inclusive:

  • Operators: Neptune Operating; Grayson Mill
  • Field: Elk (McKenzie); Camp (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Neptune has permits for two Britt wells;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for two Edna wells
    • Neptune's Britt wells are in lot 4 section 4-151-102, 
      • to be sited 220 FNL and 1375 FWL; and, 219 FNL and 1408 FWL; 
    • Grayson Mill's two Edna wells are in SWSW 11-151-101,
      • to be sited 567 FSL and 656 FW and 542 FSL and 640 FWL.

Five permits renewed:

  • WPX: five Charging Eagle permits in Heart Butte, Dunn County;

This Needs To Be Confirmed -- Williams Companies -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45205DIV.  

Updates

July 26, 2023: yes, I was correct; the information at the original post was in error. It is a fact that the quarterly dividend was a bit higher than a year ago, but it did not increase month-over-month as implied b the source. The $1.79 is an annual rate. Link here.

Original Post 

I think it has to be an error. I think the $1.79 in the graphic below is an annual calculation based on a quarterly dividend of 44.75 cents, unchanged from previous. This has happened before at this site.



Whining -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45204EVS. 

Link here.

From the linked article:

DETROIT – General Motors CEO Mary Barra blamed a supplier of automation equipment for the slow ramp of its new electric vehicles, after Wall Street criticized the company’s rollout of its newest EVs amid bold predictions to catch up to industry leader Tesla
Shares of GM were down roughly 4% in morning trading Tuesday despite quarterly results that topped year-ago performance
Analysts during the call questioned the company’s pricing strategies, EV profitability guidance and ability to hit previously announced targets for the vehicles.

Mary: you play the hand you were dealt.  

Tesla, Apple, Daimler -- they all have the same challenges.

Also, the Chevy Bolt is not what the analysts want to talk about. Not said, but the Chevy Volt / Bolt is beginning to look a lot like ... the Ford Edsel.

************************
An Abundance Of Riches

***************************
Recent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Tournament
Dallas, TX

Sophia earned a "silver" medal.

Three tournaments in past six months: three medals -- bronze, gold, and now a silver. 

My Favorite Graph Vs The "Savings Graph" -- July 26, 2023

Locator: 45203ECON

Updates

August 4, 2023: this is an old presentation but it provides a definition of "savings."  The presentation here, see slide 11.  "Savings = income - spending."

Original Post  

I posted this, July 4, 2023 (and I have posted the "area under the curve" graphic several times in the past three months).

US household "savings" collapsing: "area under the curve" ... graph. Link here.

Mainstream media and armchair analysts are misreading and mis-interpreting the chart above but I can't articulate the problem. You are on your own here.

However, today the updated MMF chart was released:

Same question for two different audiences:

  • for those looking at the overall health of the US economy, which of the two graphs is better?
  • for long-term investors (or maybe even all investors), which of the two graphs is better?

No answer is wrong. 

But, wow, as a long-term investor, I love the second graph. 

It was reported elsewhere that the most recent MMF data showed a slight decline. Obviously not the case based on the graph above.

The second graph might not mean as much if the securities market was collapsing and folks were pulling their money out of the stock market and investing in much safer money market funds. But, in fact, the stock market has been on a 12-day rally, the longest in six or more years, and yet more money is flowing into MMFs.

Bonds? I don't follow bonds, but it's my impression a lot of money is also flowing into bonds because of their great rates.

Where is that money coming from? Which by the way, is one of my favorite lines from a Colombo episode, "just where is that money coming from?"

Savings:

As mentioned some time ago, I don't understand where / how the US government measures savings rate. The well-to-do, I imagine consider a lot of their investments in MMFs, shot-term bonds, and even some securities as "savings" and don't really have much in their bank "savings accounts.“

Elderly widows pulling money out of savings accounts to put in MMFs is not exactly a real decrease in their savings. 

So, unless I'm missing something, we have a lot of "new" money coming into the market, into MMFs, and into bonds. Again, from where is that money coming? And how far down into the general economy does it trickle? It's just hard for me to believe if folks are able to put this much money in MMFs, securities, and bonds, they don’t also have money to spend on consumer goods. 

Maybe I'm wrong, naive. Whatever. 

But they are fascinating graphs.

****************************
The Book Club

The Custer Companion: A Comprehensive Guide to the Life of George Armstrong Custer and the Plains Indians Wars, Thom Hatch, c. 2002. 973.8HAT.

Notes.

AAPL Holding; "Oils" Down" -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45201AAPL. 

Personnel changes: this is pretty exciting. Over at Chevron, the CTO will be "promoted" to CFO. This speaks volumes about the role AI may play in Chevron's future. Link here. Much more at the link.

 **************************
The Market

On a very slow day on the market and a day before JPow raises rates by another 25 basis points, AAPL opens incredibly strong.

Meanwhile, the "oils" are down.

An analyst wrote yesterday that those holding these have myopic vision. A reader sent me the link, thank you. That analyst is completely accurate. Myopic vision is "short-sighted." Those holding these are investing for the long term.

*****************************
The Book Club

London 1945: Life In The Debris Of War, Maureen Waller. c. 2004. 940.53WAL.

Notes.

********************
Updating File Photo

California Dreamin' -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45200CALIFORNIA.  

 An inconvenient truth: due to its tax structure and Proposition 13, California's state budget is highly dependent on high-wage earners or those with lots of passive income (old money). 

California's high-tax payers include:

  • tech
  • Hollywood
  • old money
  • Teamsters (concentrated in one harbor, two ports)

Is that California's economy? Yes, except I "forgot" one: tourism.

But the service industry doesn't pay their hotel bed-changers much. 

Think about these factoids.

Tech can easily move. Tesla did. Arizona, Texas benefitting.

Population shifts as high tax-payers "flee" to states like Idaho and Texas. 

That puts a huge strain on the California budget.

Not yet talked about, but the longer this goes on, the greater impact it will have on the California budget: the actors' and writers' strike.

On a completely different note, but here in Texas, I'm seeing a lot of brand new $70,000-pickup trucks in front of Dollar Store and Family Dollar. Something tells me a lot of those pickup trucks are going to end up back on dealers' lots. Sooner than later. 

On yet another note, this article is behind a paywall over at The LA Times but one can read about him elsewhere.

Rambling On Investing -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45199INV. 

Right now there are three leaders in three different sectors, and some might argue their lead is insurmountable in the short- to mid-term:

  • EV charging and large scale utility batteries: Tesla.
  • Blades: Nvidia. 
  • Chip design: Apple. 

Let's expand that list, but I'm less sure of the following than the above. But for discussion:

  • retail, brick and mortar: Walmart
  • banking: JPMorgan
  • big oil: Chevron
  • little oil: Devon
  • capital preservation: BRK
  • US trucking: Daimler
  • US fast food: McDonalds 
That would give one a portfolio of "ten." Even less sure:
  • utility: SRE
  • rail (not owned by BRK): UNP
  • US agriculture: Deere
  • US infrastructure: CAT
  • chip manufacturing: TSM

That's "fifteen." I think TSM could be moved to one of the top three or top ten.

A few more, even less sure. These are (currently) top in their sectors, but the sectors are lousy sectors to be in or very, very crowded sectors or sectors about which I know very little or very hard to predict:

  • streaming, entertainment: Netflix
  • payments: Visa 
  • social media: Meta
  • cloud/associated: Microsoft
  • caffeine: Starbucks

So, there we have a portfolio of 20 blue-chip, big cap stocks, with an exception or two.

For mid-cap and small-cap, I have no idea.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Just When I Thought I Was Done With Nvidia For The Day -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45198TECH. 

Link here.

The Business Insider website is one of "cleanest" pages on the web. In addition, it highlights just five stories on its "front" page. A very, very clean site. It's the first business / investing site I visit every day, followed by CNBC for the "market crawler" and then Yahoo!Finance to type in ticker symbols.

From Business Insider today (same link as above):

Out of a gazillion companies that Busineess Insider could have focused on today, out of a gazillion -- it picked this one.

Right now there are three leaders in three different sectors, and some might argue their lead is insurmountable in the short- to mid-term:

  • EV charging and large scale utility batteries: Tesla.
  • Blades: Nvidia. 
  • Chip design: Apple.

Investors: ask yourself which sector(s) will see the most explosive growth ever seen over the next twenty years. Remember, the EV mandate on the West Coast:



Recession Obsession -- Did Barron's Just Jinx Wall Street? Juuly 25, 2023

Locator: 45197INV. 

Barron's posted this just before the expected "rate increase" tomorrow. 

By the way, with regard to tomorrow, it will be a huge surprise if JPow doesn't announce anything but a 25-bp-jump in the "Fed rate."

How does Mr Market feel about that?

Pre-market today:

Tech, fashion, or luxury brand?

Back to that Barron's link:

Wind -- Octopus -- Update -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45196WIND.  

See this post from yesterday for background.

July 25, 2023: hope springs eternal.

TC Energy To Sell 40% Of Its Assets -- Rigzone -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45195PIPELINES. 

From yesterday:

I think that this may be one of the biggest, most under-reported stories of the year.

Can you imagine selling 40% of yours to "cover" a huge disappointment? 

Now, from Rigzone via X today:

Tech: Update -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45194TECH. Tag: NVDA.

Tech:

Link here.

***************************
TSM
:

Link here.

  • TSM delays Arizona facility due to lack of skilled workers in US;
  • "pivots" to old standby -- Taiwan

**********************
And, Of Course

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

This slide continues to haunt me:

***************************
Brief Disclaimer

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Update On Refinery Shut-In -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45193B.

Updates

Later, 4:48 p.m. CDT: link here -- 

Refinery shut in: link here.

  • theme: SPR matters not; the US choke-point is refinery capacity, not the SPR --
    • "everyone" talks about under-investment in oil exploration and production in the US
    • how about all that investing in new US refineries over the last forty years?
  • XOM's Baton Rouge facility

Original Post

Locator: 45191B.

Gasoline, the price
: all of a sudden, a number of stories on sudden rise in price of gasoline.

Of course, again, most stories, tweets, x-notes without analysis.

Let's start here:

  • RBOB futures hit new 2023 high
  • worries about
    • XOM Baton Rouge refinery downtime
    • Monroe Energy turnaround in September
  • also, corroborates my argument that the "choke point" in US gasoline affordability is not the SPR, but rather the US capacity to refine oil.

 

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45193B.

Geo-politics
: yesterday I posted this --

Today


If "it" does indeed "stall," and the Ukraine turns into another "1917," it will be for all the same reasons. History doesn't repeat but it sure does rhyme.

Body counts: Vietnam. Based on body counts, the US was winning that war also. Until it wasn't.

*****************************
Back To Regular Programming

Holding pattern: until tomorrow afternoon.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.24. Can't sustain $79.

Wednesday, July 26, 2023: 86 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 449 for the year
39509 conf, CLR, Vance 4-14H,
39476 conf, Ovintiv, Newman 150-97-21-16-6HR,

Tuesday, July 25, 2023: 84 for the month; 192 for the quarter, 447 for the year
39508 conf, CLR, Vance 3-14H,
38949 conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-16,
37178 conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-7,

RBN Energy: Canadian gas market slowly rebalancing thanks to improved exports, less production

In natural gas markets, warmer-than-average winters usually translate into oversupply conditions as heating demand draws less gas out of storage than what would normally be expected. When compounded by rapidly rising domestic production and soft gas exports, the result is even greater oversupply. That is exactly how the Canadian gas market finished the most recent heating season, facing a substantial oversupply of gas that, if it persisted, could result in domestic gas storage reaching capacity well before the start of the next heating season. However, when it comes to natural gas markets, or any other market for that matter, expect the unexpected. Gradually improving demand and export conditions, combined with a significant decline in domestic gas production event in Western Canada, has rapidly shifted the market from substantial to slight oversupply in a matter of months. This has reduced downward pressure on prices and created conditions that might lead to a more manageable storage level before the next heating season gets underway. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what has been generating the rapid shift in Canadian gas market balances this summer.