Canada: Closed For Business -- February 13, 2020

Link here.

The story:

Canadian National (CN) said today it has begun to shut down its eastern Canadian rail network following delays caused by protests against a pipeline that have spread across three provinces.

More than 400 trains have already been cancelled this week. The situation has worsened since CN said on 11 February that blockades in Belleville, Ontario, had forced it to curtail some deliveries.

The protests are unrelated to CN. First Nations groups and others have used blockades to protest a Coastal GasLink pipeline under construction in British Columbia.

"A progressive shutdown of our eastern Canadian operations is the responsible approach to take for the safety of our employees and the protestors," CN chief executive Jean-Jacques Ruest said today

The closure ends all transcontinental train movements, including some that are hauling propane, coal, crude, potash and pellets.

CN is taking steps to ensure it is well set up for recovery, "which will come when the illegal blockades end completely," Ruest said.

CN sought and obtained court orders to end the blockades. The blockades have ended in Manitoba and an end is imminent in British Columbia, the railroad said. But the orders of an Ontario court have yet to be enforced and continue to be ignored, CN said.

Remind me, what province is the capital of Canada in?

Can you imagine if all -- repeat, all -- US transcontinental rail traffic was discontinued -- even for a day?

Canada is nuts. Simply nuts.

Top Story Of The Month? -- February 13, 2020

A reader sent me this. I never, never, never would have seen it otherwise.

Headline:

Link.

The lede:

A chemical waste landfill near the Columbia Gorge has been accepting thousands of tons of radioactive fracking waste from North Dakota in violation of Oregon regulations.

Oregon Department of Energy officials issued a “notice of violation” to Chemical Waste Management’s landfill near the small town of Arlington on Thursday for accepting a total of 2 million pounds of Bakken oil field waste that was delivered by rail in 2016, 2017 and 2019.

On average, the waste registered radium at 140 picocuries per gram, according to Jeff Burright, a state nuclear waste remediation specialist. The state’s maximum level for waste stored at Arlington is 5 picocuries per gram, he said.

Radioactivity in a common retail six-banana bunch: the average radiologic profile of bananas is 3,520 picocuries per kg, or roughly 520 picocuries per 150g banana, or roughly 3,000 picocuries in a retail "bunch" of bananas. 

3,520 picocuries per 1000 grams = 3.52 picocuries per gram. 

The EPA "talking paper" here will sort it all out. 

We talked about this, maybe, ten years ago o the blog. Search banana on the blog. 

Something tells me this is the end of that.  

**************************************

The Trembler

The Trembler, Duane Eddy
In another life, long ago and far away, I had a woman friend -- looking back now -- she would have loved dancing to Duane Eddy's "Honky Tonk." Folks may be more familiar with "the original."

Am I wrong, or am I wrong? What dance would work best for this music? Line dancing. That's my guess.  

The Madison -- Dance

The Chinese Must Be Using The DNC-Iowa App To Tabulate Coronavirus Deaths -- February 13, 2020

This page will not be updated.

I have finally decided that I will follow "coronavirus" here.

February 13, 2020, link:

In 50+ years of studying biology, medicine, and statistics, I have never, never seen an epidemiological graph that looked like this. The only explanation: the Chinese are using the DNC-Iowa app to tabulate deaths.

From a post earlier today --

Dumb and dumber:

• Then: China lies about how bad the coronavirus is. 
• Now: China tells us how bad the coronavirus is.

I did not hear this mentioned on any network today -- that the number of deaths -- day-over-day -- decreased by 51%, link here:

Closer Look At Two Slawson DUCs Just Reported -- February 13, 2020

Updates

November 27, 2020: production for many of these wells and graphics updated at this post;

Original Post

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 13K over 9 days; extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
• 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 10K over 6 days; extrapolates to 48K over 30 days;

Location:

• 36524: NENE 29-151-92, middle Bakken;
• 30177: NENE 29-151-77, Three Forks; 

Section 29-151-92, drilling from the north, going south:

• 33901, conf, Slawson, Mole 1 SLH, Big Bend,
• 33742, 520, Slawson, Challenger Federal 4-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t11/17; cum 121K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
• 33902, conf, Slawson, Mole 4-20TFH, Big Bend,
• 23917, 1147, Slawson, Silencer 2-29H, Big Bend, t11/17; cum 220K 11/19;
• 33903, conf, Slawson, Mole 2-20H, Big Bend,
• 33904, conf, Slawson, Mole 5-20TFH, Big Bend,

• 27592, 780, Slawson, Challenger Federal 5-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t8/14; cum 338K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
• 27593, 519, Slawson, Challenger Federal 3-29-32H, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 320K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
• 27594, 352, Slawson, Challenger Federal 6-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 205K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;

• 
  
• 35699, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 6-20TFH, Big Bend, 4K over 7 days;
• 30179, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 7-29-32TFH, Big Bend, three days of production;
• 35698, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 7-20TFH, Big Bend, --
• 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, 10K over 6 days;

Section 29-151-92, drilling from the south, going north into section 20:

• 27675, IA/464, Slawson, Mole 3-20H, Big Bend, t8/14; cum 243K 8/19; intermittent production since 8/19; remains off line 12/19;
• 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, t--; 13K over 9 days;
• 30178, n/d, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; 42 bbls over one day;

Section line well from the south, going north:

• 31476, 2,613, MRO, Moline 14-32H, Big Bend, t8/18; cum 330K 12/19;

The graphic:

Nelson Federal Wells -- Recent Drop In Production -- Staggering -- But It's Only Temporary -- February 13, 2020

Mom-and-pop mineral owners with stakes in XTO's Nelson Federal wells probably noted a huge, huge decrease in their royalty checks reflecting autumn, 2019, data. This should be temporary; several Nelson Federal wells in section 6-152-94 were recently fracked; many wells in the area were taken off line, but they are now returning to production. The Nelson Federal wells in this section, and recent production.

The wells:

• 28257, 2,059, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5D, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 394K 11/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	31	5771	5732	7273	6690	6634	0
SANISH	11-2019	3	90	80	458	135	104	27
SANISH	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2019	0	0	55	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2019	28	4479	4498	1903	5472	5459	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	4898	5002	2245	5417	5399	0
SANISH	6-2019	26	4640	4754	2089	4716	4706	0

• 28256, 1,804, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5H, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 290K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	25	3919	3886	4878	4328	4292	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2019	0	0	37	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2019	28	2996	3005	3778	1406	1403	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	3046	3116	4044	1184	1180	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	3041	2995	5742	1564	1561	0

• 18435, 2,376, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5G, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 390K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	31	4381	4569	4154	5440	5394	0
SANISH	11-2019	16	2085	1901	1934	2040	1567	408
SANISH	10-2019	8	1249	1279	833	1402	1388	0
SANISH	9-2019	30	4085	4071	3286	4863	4848	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	4593	4600	4366	3770	3761	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	4255	4352	4408	2702	2693	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	4215	4159	5369	2984	2977	0
SANISH	5-2019	14	1400	1312	2633	927	924	0
SANISH	4-2019	2	227	210	477	214	213	0
SANISH	3-2019	0	0	45	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2018	1	6	12	0	0	0	0

• 28255, 2,513, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5C, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 353K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	31	3619	3991	3098	5012	4970	0
SANISH	11-2019	27	3740	3337	2731	3828	2942	765
SANISH	10-2019	0	0	46	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2019	26	2646	2643	2217	3734	3722	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	3497	3508	2958	2859	2852	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	3597	3704	3478	2791	2782	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	4201	4114	4503	3183	3176	0

• 34488, 1,408, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5C, Antelope-Sanish, t3/19; cum 361K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	23	7356	7474	4069	11397	11301	0
SANISH	11-2019	9	1667	1615	556	1801	1384	360
SANISH	10-2019	4	3878	3894	1490	5729	5671	0
SANISH	9-2019	11	8306	8586	3468	18788	18729	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	34274	34143	13615	65958	65799	0
SANISH	7-2019	20	19488	20364	8111	32022	31915	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	30537	32150	13060	50376	50265	0
SANISH	5-2019	31	37252	36901	17832	54069	53913	0
SANISH	4-2019	30	32604	31570	17432	43505	38580	4742
SANISH	3-2019	9	6644	5247	11167	9207	7031	2054

• 34487, 857, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5FXG2, Antelope-Sanish, t5/19; cum 235K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	23	5745	5696	5529	7942	7875	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	180	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	9	5435	5569	3030	8225	8141	0
SANISH	9-2019	26	18162	18039	10780	27290	27205	0
SANISH	8-2019	23	15452	15484	10168	24271	24213	0
SANISH	7-2019	20	14817	15452	10379	21428	21356	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	22392	22900	15899	32488	32417	0
SANISH	5-2019	19	18285	16919	12774	23491	23423	0
SANISH	4-2019	0	0	158	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2019	3	750	592	4262	1748	0	1748

• 34486, 1,244, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5BXC, Antelope-Sanish, t3/19; cum 310K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	23	10528	10439	4182	16483	16344	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	439	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	21	13288	13185	3920	23592	23352	0
SANISH	9-2019	30	19431	19314	5560	34080	33973	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	17667	17692	5757	26629	26565	0
SANISH	7-2019	20	16230	16946	5362	25017	24933	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	25064	26231	7996	38414	38330	0
SANISH	5-2019	31	28482	28852	9949	38992	38880	0
SANISH	4-2019	30	33490	32192	11805	44696	38364	6150
SANISH	3-2019	9	5704	4505	4976	7909	6752	1040

• 34485, A, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5F, 40 stages; 5 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 232K11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	23	6843	6785	4996	9491	9411	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	180	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	12	5451	5558	3640	9086	8994	0
SANISH	9-2019	24	16553	16447	9831	24515	24438	0
SANISH	8-2019	24	14650	14615	9708	22489	22435	0
SANISH	7-2019	20	9732	10244	6799	13284	13239	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	17193	16891	12087	24758	24704	0
SANISH	5-2019	10	4764	4408	3334	6567	6548	0
SANISH	4-2019	0	0	70	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2019	1	334	264	0	604	0	604

• 28183, 2,459, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5B, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 413K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	0	0	404	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2019	26	3749	3511	1821	4301	3305	860
SANISH	10-2019	31	5031	4912	2795	6256	6192	0
SANISH	9-2019	30	2694	2652	1851	3380	3369	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	387	433	395	298	297	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	3393	3563	2483	4540	4525	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	5771	5869	4674	7941	7924	0

• 28185, 2,712, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5E, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 363K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	0	0	26	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2019	16	1521	1568	1417	1586	1581	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	5866	5880	5740	6743	6727	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	5776	5868	6062	6346	6325	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	4667	4670	6740	5765	5752	0

• 28184, 2,171, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5A, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 371K 11/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2019	27	3753	4378	1034	4095	4060	0
SANISH	11-2019	30	6096	5597	1661	6082	4673	1216
SANISH	10-2019	31	4783	4705	1655	4932	4882	0
SANISH	9-2019	30	4618	4584	1690	4991	4975	0
SANISH	8-2019	31	3739	3748	1892	5738	5724	0
SANISH	7-2019	31	3672	3740	1778	4257	4243	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	3209	3214	1535	3261	3254	0

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- February 13, 2020

Link here.

Another Day With No New Permits -- February 13, 2020

Congrats!! Lynn Helms gets a shout-out from the EIA. Link here.

North Dakota provides regulatory guidance to reduce natural gas flaring.

Natural gas production in North Dakota reached 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November 2019, a more than ten-fold increase compared with January 2010 levels.

In the first 11 months of 2019, North Dakota flared about 20% of its natural gas production, or 0.56 Bcf/d, which is 40% higher than in 2018. Increases in natural gas production are primarily related to associated gas produced from oil wells in the Bakken formation. Flaring refers to combusting natural gas in the atmosphere instead of capturing and processing natural gas in a processing plant.

North Dakota implemented natural gas capture goals in 2014 to limit the amount of natural gas flared into the atmosphere. Natural gas processing capacity has increased alongside crude oil production but has lagged behind the growth in associated natural gas production. The state natural gas capture target—currently at 88% and set to increase to 91% in November 2020—has not been met in every month since March 2018. In the most recent data month, November 2019, only 83% of natural gas produced in North Dakota was captured.

Insufficient natural gas processing capacity has placed constraints on crude oil production, and oil producers are looking for ways to comply with natural gas capture targets.

According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, natural gas processing plant capacity additions in 2019 increased total capacity by 0.71 Bcf/d to reach 3.1 Bcf/d. They expect an additional 0.9 Bcf/d of natural gas processing to enter service during 2020 and 2021. These additions will support crude oil production growth, but the new capacity may fill up faster than anticipated.

On November 15, 2019, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC), the regulatory entity that oversees the state’s flaring reduction rules, held a hearing to consider both how to raise natural gas capture levels using alternative natural gas capture strategies and how to provide regulatory clarity in natural gas gathering agreements. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, about three-fourths of flaring is associated with oil wells connected to natural gas gathering pipelines.

Much, much more at the link.

Active rigs:

$51.60	2/13/2020	02/13/2019	02/13/2018	02/13/2017	02/13/2016
Active Rigs	55	63	58	36	41

No new permits.

permits renewed: pending.

permits canceled: pending.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (see this note):

• 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 13K over 9 days; extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
• 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 10K over 6 days; extrapolates to 48K over 30 days;

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- February 13, 2020

This will not make tonight's ABC evening news with David Muir, from the international agency:

The story:

The United States led the world in tackling CO2 emissions last year while combining that singular success with solid economic growth.

It has also been confirmed while the U.S. was hitting its climate goals, at the same time “80 percent of the increase in CO2 emissions came from Asia and that China and India both contributed significantly” to global increases.

The story continues:

“The United States saw the largest decline in energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2019 on a country basis – a fall of 140 Mt, or 2.9%, to 4.8 Gt,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Tuesday. “US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period.”

“A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019,” the IEA continued.

“Coal-fired power plants faced even stronger competition from natural gas-fired generation, with benchmark gas prices an average of 45% lower than 2018 levels. As a result, gas increased its share in electricity generation to a record high of 37%. Overall electricity demand declined because demand for air-conditioning and heating was lower as a result of milder summer and winter weather.”

U.S. success in leading the world in tackling CO2 emissions was not lost on those who support its current efforts.

Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 13, 2020

This reminds me of the apocryphal story about NASA's multi-billion-dollar project to develop a writing utensil that could be used in space, when the Russians already had a 25-cent version.

Whatever.

Team Trump has sent the Iowa DNC a prototype of the voting app the RNC will use in South Carolina to tally votes. Team Trump sent them the "blue" version for obvious reasons. The "red" version, already being used in the field, is designed for the GOP.

From The WSJ today, "The Incompetence Party."

Or, from #NotTheRealBernieSanders: "The incontinence party," dripping with hatred for the US.

************************************

Prep For Valentines Day

Lamb.

One of our favorite home dinners.

Marinate overnight.

Grill tomorrow.

Lamb chops from Costco, $6.99 / lb. Are there eleven pork chops in that package; I forgot to count, but that's about what it looks like. About 1.5 inches thick. The math suggests each lamb chop is about 4.75 ounces.

Rosemary - thyme - olive oil - balsamic vinegar - salt - pepper - shallot - garlic marinade:

Marinate.

I used to put the lamb in a Pyrex container to sit in a refrigerator overnight. This time, for the first time, it dawned on me, that it made more sense to use a zip lock back for a number of reasons.