Thursday, March 27, 2025

Five New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- March 27, 2025

Locator: 48384B.

Just Stop Oil: it just took a bit of adulting.  

Electricity rates: North Dakota with lowest residential electricity rates -- EIA -- link here. Rate per kWh, drops below ten cents. In January, 2025: 9.93 cents.

  • top three:
    • North Dakota: 9.93 cents
    • second lowest: Nebraska -- 10.56 cents
    • third: Idaho -- 10.82
  • others of interest:
    • Minnesota: 14.53 cents
    • Texas: 14.68 cents
    • Massachusetts: 30.08 cents
    • California: 30.22 cents 
  • Industrial:
    • North Dakota: 7.30 cents (last year: 7.43 cents)
    • Texas: 6.59 cents
    • California: 19.36 (think LDCs)

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.89.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #41745 - #41749, inclusive:

  • Operators: Devon (4); CLR
  • Fields: Wolf Bay (Dunn); wildcat (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a wildcat in Divide County, SESE 31-162-95; 
      • to be sited 337 FSL and 650 FEL:
    • Devon has permits for four Clark North wells, NWSE 28-147-92; 
      • to be sited 2580/2443 FSL and 2210 / 2327 FEL.

Four permits renewed:

  • Silver Hill, #38109 - #38112, inclusive, all LFM2 wells; Leaf Mountain, Burke County;

California -- March 27, 2025

Locator: 48383CALIFORNIA.

California:

Los Angeles is broke: link here.

The Bullet Train: an update. Victor Davis Hanson says the cost of the Bullet Train is now estimated to be $300 billion.



First question
: where is all that money going? Link here.
 
Health insurance: Medicaid provides health insurance to more than 72 million Americans with limited incomes and funds long-term care for some seniors. In California, nearly 15 million people — more than a third of residents — are enrolled in Medi-Cal, the state’s version of the program. About two-thirds of funding for state Medicaid programs is federal.

The Book Page -- March 27, 2025

Locator: 48382BOOKS.

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The Good Soldier

Arrived today.

The Good Soldier: A Tale of Passion, Ford Madox Ford, c. 1915.

The Guardian: "One of the 20th century's most remarkable novels." 

Wiki entry.

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MANIAC

Interestingly, this book, MANIAC was part of my Summer Reading Program, 2023.

  • The Maniac (John von Neumann), Benjamín Labatut, c. 2023.

By Dan Rockmore, an essay on two books by Benamin Labatut, in the current issue of The New York Review of Books, April 10, 2025, pp 34 - 36:

  • The Maniac, 354 pages -- a challenging read
  • When We Cease To Understand The World, 189 pages -- a very, very challenging read

Wiki entry for this author, Benjamin Labutut.

The writer of The New York Review article: 

Dan Rockmore is the William H. Neukom 1964 Professor of Computational Science at Dartmouth. He is also a member of the external faculty of the Santa Fe Institute. His most recent book is Law as Data: Computation, Text, and the Future of Legal Analysis, which he co-edited with Michael Livermore. (April 2025) 

From The [London] Guardian, July 13, 2024, by Sam Leith:

I agree. I didn't have a panic attack but I found his premise disturbing. 

The lede:

The Faustian bargain is a spiritual form of a conservation law: nothing good happens without something bad happening too. In the modern version, as depicted in books and movies, the message is that geniuses see far beyond their contemporaries, but often at the expense of lasting relationships and happy families. In our preoccupation with the image of the mad scientist, one can’t help but sense a bit of anti-intellectual schadenfreude lurking in the background—solace for all of us “normals.”

Stories of genius don’t have to take this form, but they often do. It’s an organizing principle for the Chilean writer Benjamín Labatut in his widely praised collection of loosely linked stories, When We Cease to Understand the World—the first of his books to be translated into English—and also in his latest, The MANIAC, which he wrote in English. Both are unsettling, often violent books based on some of the twentieth century’s great ideas of chemistry, physics, and mathematics, told as stories of individual obsession and militaristic madness.

Absolutely fascinating:

At the center is the German physicist Werner Heisenberg, who came upon his idea for “matrix mechanics”—a mathematical encoding of quantum phenomena in spreadsheets of infinite extent—during a brief stay on the small island of Heligoland, “Germany’s only outlying island, so dry and inclement that trees barely rise from the ground and not a single flower blossoms amid its stones.” This is a historical fact, but for Labatut this and the other facts that ground the tale are—by his own admission—just starter materials. In his stormy telling Heisenberg hikes all about the windswept island, becoming ill from the exhaustion of nonstop physical and mental exertion. He returns to his hotel, and in a nightmarish fog of fever and physics, amid a dark, delusional encounter between the poets Goethe and Hafez, he creates his groundbreaking mathematical formulation: 
He felt his brain split in two: each hemisphere worked on its own, without needing to communicate with the other, and as a result his matrices violated all the rules of ordinary algebra and obeyed the logic of dreams…. Too weary to question himself, he continued working until he had reached the final matrix. When he solved it, he left his bed and ran around his room shouting, “Unobservable! Unimaginable! Unthinkable!” until the entire hotel was awakened. Among the consequences of these calculations is the famous Heisenberg uncertainty principle, which codifies the limits of measurement in the subatomic realm. Heisenberg later realizes this while walking the streets of Copenhagen, in a vision darkened by a foreshadowing of the nuclear weapons whose invention can be traced directly to the discovery of quantum mechanics: he sees a dead baby at his feet and finds himself surrounded by “thousands of figures” who looked as though they wanted to “warn him of something, before they were carbonized in an instant” by a “flash of blind light.”
For me, it was a difficult read. I'll have to go back and re-read The MANIAC

That opening line -- 

"In his stormy telling Heisenberg hikes all about the windswept island, becoming ill from the exhaustion of nonstop physical and mental exertion. He returns to his hotel, and in a nightmarish fog of fever and physics, amid a dark, delusional encounter between the poets Goethe and Hafez, he creates his groundbreaking mathematical formulation."

That reminds me of James Watson telling us how he and colleagues discovered the molecular and 3-D structure of DNA; and, Friedrich August Kekulé, who discovered the Kekulé (naturally) structure of benzene. 

By the way, speaking of "3-D structure of DNA," the other day I ran across a short blurb that explained the difference between geometry and topology. Absolutely fascinating. The difference described in two sentences, each less than a dozen or so words long. If I can find that blurb again, I'll post it. But I can explain it to Sophia even if I can't write it out on the blog. Google: geometry vs topology the difference. I think one could construct an IQ test based on topology alone. 

By the way, as long as I'm rambling, I assume "everyone" has at least heard of Goethe. Hafez? Unlikely. Highly recommend that if you've read this far, to click on to the "Hafez" link above. Fascinating. I've lived a very, very insular life.

For Investors -- Natural Gas Companies -- March 28, 2025

Locator: 48381B.

Note blog's disclaimer before proceeding.

Natural gas companies: ten best for investors, per Insider Monkey, link here. Perhaps here is better.
In reverse order, #10 to #1:

  • Williams (WMB)
    • moves one-third of all natural gas in the US
    • price target raised from $61 to $62
  • Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)
  • Shell (SHEL)
    • price target, $82
  • Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
    • price target $128, recently raised from $123
  • OXY
    • price target $59, recently raised from $52; "neutral" rating
  • Chevron Corporation (CVX)
    • share buybacks in 2024: $15 billion
  • Targa Resources Corp (TRGP)
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) 
    • price target of $137; currently $103
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
    • price target of $133;
  • Hess Corporation (HES)
    • often shows up in these sorts of lists; will likely be acquired by either XOM or HES;
    • EPS, 4Q24
      • $1.76, easily surpassing forecast of $1.53
    • cash flow, 4Q24:
      • $4.93 vs $4.29, estimated; pays $2.00 annual dividend

OXY: Vanguard Group buys 10 million shares of OXY. Link here. Archived.

CNBC's Cramer on OXY: no.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.58.

New wells:

  • Friday, March 28, 2025: 81 for the month, 192 for the quarter, 192 for the year,
    • 40512, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35 2 5H,
    • 40511, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 4H,
    • 40510, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daneile 26-35-2 2H,
    • 40509, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 1H-LL,
    • 40474, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-3,
    • 40447, conf, Phoenix OPerating Deniele 26-35-2 3H,
  • Thursday, March 27, 2025: 75 for the month, 190 for the quarter, 190 for the year,
    • 41073, conf, BR, Tilton Diamond Forest 2A ULW,
    • 40219, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-18-1H 1,
    • 40218, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-36H 1,
    • 39319, conf, Grayson Operating, Marilyn 31-33 3H,

RBN Energy: gas producers drive 4Q24 earnings growth as oil prices languish

Most conversations and analyses around hydrocarbon prices tend to focus on crude oil, if for no other reason than the direct exposure we experience when filling up at the pump. After the commodity price crash in early 2020, which threatened the financial stability of U.S. E&Ps, a subsequent surge in oil prices drove a remarkable recovery, winning back investor confidence in the industry. Crude realizations have subsequently declined, slowly but steadily eroding producer results. Fortunately, the outlook for natural gas, which represents just under half the total output of our 38 U.S. E&Ps, has begun to brighten. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze Q4 2024 results for the major E&Ps we cover with a focus on the impact of rising natural gas prices. 

As shown in Figure 1 below, E&P pre-tax operating earnings (blue bars and left axis) rose to record highs in 2021 and 2022, then declined through 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024

The driver was a drop in crude oil prices from more than $100/bbl in mid-2022 to a $70-$80/bbl range over the last eight quarters. The quarterly average price reached a three-year low of $70.32/bbl in Q4 2024. Despite the substantial dip from $75.26/bbl in Q3 2024, the erosion in profits stopped, as pre-tax income for our universe rose 1.5%, from $10.72/boe to $10.89/boe. Natural gas prices rose from record lows in the first three quarters of 2024, which kept Q4 2024 revenue essentially flat at $35.60/boe despite the 7% decline in average WTI prices.

  E&P Financial Results and Production, 2014-Q4 2024

Figure 1. E&P Financial Results and Production, 2014-Q4 2024.

Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics, LLC

The Henry Hub spot price increased from $1.99/MMBtu in August 2024 to $3.01/MMBtu in December. As a result, average realized natural gas prices for major producers increased. For example, EOG’s quarter-over-quarter gas realizations rose by 41%, Devon Energy’s increased by 50% and ConocoPhillips’ jumped by 77%. Permian producers that faced negative pricing at the Waha Hub for long stretches in mid-2024 (see Don’t Blame Me) benefited from a turn to the positive, as Diamondback Energy’s average realization pivoted from a $0.26/MMBtu loss in Q3 2024 to an $0.82/MMBtu gain in Q4 2024. 

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Devon With Five New Permits -- March 26, 2025

Locator: 48378B.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.77.

Active rigs: 32.

Five new permits, #41740 - #41744, inclusive:

  • Operator: Devon
  • Field: Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Devon has permits for five Clark North wells, NWSE 28-147-92, 
      • to be sited 2466 / 2557 FSL and 2230 / 2308 FEL.

Five permits renewed:

  • Murex: CD-Cynthia Dale; CD-Frances McKenna; CD-Jarrod Joseph; CD-Michael Paul; and CD-Nancy Rey -- West Bank and Beaver Lodge, Williams County, permits # 40625 - $40629, inclusive.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39212, 1,006, BR, Parrish-Kermit 5A MBH-ULW, Pershing, McKenzie County; 
Wells of interest:
  • 39214, F/IA, BR, Parrish-Kermit 5B TFH-ULW, Pershing, t11/24; cum--; no production data yet reported;
  • 37879, loc/A, BR, Kermit 1-8-32 MBH, Pershing, t11/24; cum 327K 1/25 (in 14.5 months)!
  • 37881, loc/A, BR, Kermit 1-8-32UTFH, Pershing, t11/24; cum 157K 1/25;
  • 17371, 695, BR, Parrish 1-31H, t2/09; cum 302K 1/25; jump in production, 12/23;