Friday, May 31, 2024

A Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Drilled In 2008 Just Went Over One Million Bbls Crude Oil -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48017B.

The well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20243023062133123120900
BAKKEN3-2024312430229813256185593435
BAKKEN2-2024292363229312945699545839
BAKKEN1-2024312572264913776047578348
BAKKEN12-20233022552590121950034663138
BAKKEN11-2023302616282813966127583781
BAKKEN10-20233129022800155770076660134
BAKKEN9-20233030112869167869106262439
BAKKEN8-2023313196322117757474724711
BAKKEN7-2023313363318019276998672262
BAKKEN6-20232831062745206853704671509
BAKKEN5-202316174718569434226407738
BAKKEN4-2023303558396818957919766248
BAKKEN3-202331400040202237827164071648
BAKKEN2-20232837493754204379387391352
BAKKEN1-20233130492978216283077459636
BAKKEN12-20223144294454235587708422132

Week 22: May 27, 2024 -- June 2, 2024

Locator: 48016TOPSTORIES.

Top story:

  • Former president Trump convicted on 34 counts; decision made in a couple of hours; has the feel of a "kangaroo court.
    • Maureen Dowd said it best
  • Israel moves into Rafah; Israel says the war will go to the end of the year (2024)

Top international non-energy story:

  • US President Biden sides with Hamas to call for unilateral cease-fire without preconditions (re: hostages)

Top international energy story:Top national non-energy story

  • SpaceX - Boeing Starliner launch on Saturday scrubbed 3.5 minutes before launch; 
    • HAL made the decision; no human input; 
    • following launch NASA / Boeing spokepersons unable to explain why launch was scrubbed.
    • initial indications: HAL simply decided to shut itself down; nothing appears to have been wrong with the launch sequence itself

Top national energy story:

  • WTI continues to struggle; range-bound below $78

Focus on fracking. 

Top North Dakota non-energy story: 

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

*************************************
Market

Market at the close, end of the week, May 31, 2024:

Grapevine Lake -- DFW -- North Texas -- FULL! May 31, 2024

Locator: 48016GRAPEVINELAKE

US Army Corps of Engineers website for Grapevine Lake: link here.


 

My daughter received notice tonight that her paddle boarding club has been closed for the time-being due to very high water level in Grapevine Lake. 

This is the screenshot of the notice she was sent:


We'll drive out later tonight and/over the weekend to see if we can get some photos.

Bat Cave Today / This Evening -- Incredible Spring Weather -- The Bat Cave Is Awesome -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48015BATCAVE







California Regulators, Community Solar, And Public Utilities -- Whoo-Hoo! May 31, 2024

Locator: 48014SOLAR

Before we get started: Jim Cramer mentioned Katie Ledecky on his show tonight. Katie Ledecky is an ambassador for Gap Stores.

Now back to this:

Cherry Picking -- Look At These Incredible WPX Two Shields Butte Wells -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48013B

The "movers and shakers" offering $15K / mineral acre in the Bakken know that this phenomenon is going to be repeated and repeated and repeated in the Bakken over the next fifty years. Remember: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, and I do not have a crystal ball, and no formal training in the oil sector, but I have read Leigh Price's paper and know the TOC in the Bakken compared to that in the other plays. At least I used to; I've since forgotten a lot of the numbers.

The Two Shields Butte wells are tracked here. This post won't be updated.

The wells:

  • 18987, 223 (no typo), WPX/RimRock, Two Shields Butte 14-21-16-2HS, Heart Butte, t4/11; cum 721K 4/21; nice jump in production, 11/18; cm 751K 10/22; cum 780K 3/24;
  • 18988, 1,835, WPX/Rimrock/Whiting/KOG, Two Shields Butte 14-21-33-15H, Heart Butte, Bakken, t12/10; cum 486K 4/18; taken off line 8/15 for one month; cum 589K 11/21; cum 604K 3/24;
  • 32762, 1,103, WPX/RimRock, Two Shields Butte 13-21-33-13H3A, Heart Butte, t12/18; cum 316K 4/21; cum 374K 10/22; cum 390K 3/24;
  • 32693, 3,033, WPX/RimRock, Two Shields Butte 13-21-16-3H3, Heart Butte, t12/18; cum 439K 4/21; cum 539K 10/22; cum 587K 3/24;
  • 35528, conf-->loc/drl, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U, Heart Butte, t1/23; cum 311K 3/24;
  • 38216, drl/A, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH, Heart Butte, t2/23; cum 308K 3/24; 

Let's look at part of the production profiles of one or two of these wells:

  • 18987, 223 (no typo), WPX/RimRock, Two Shields Butte 14-21-16-2HS, Heart Butte, t4/11; cum 721K 4/21;nice jump in production, 11/18; cm 751K 10/22; cum 780K 3/24;
BAKKEN1-2019316524654946883472213085
BAKKEN12-20183175147564356838172236378
BAKKEN11-20182867736373575635972159478
BAKKEN10-2018003670000
BAKKEN9-2018111081134935410336143
BAKKEN8-201811361053310980679
BAKKEN7-20182926752565113832021998106
BAKKEN6-2018272606272683129401450494
BAKKEN5-20182928282844912351324090
BAKKEN4-2018302971295797534192100176
BAKKEN3-2018193050304394825321960319
BAKKEN2-2018282717277387131651975144

 

BAKKEN3-2014281030410244353469036337483
BAKKEN2-2014281031010355362270386588366
BAKKEN1-20143111942119374203789767351069
BAKKEN12-20133112437127024262785759961768
BAKKEN11-20133011978117744001719740813026
BAKKEN10-20133113253132074557892526816151
BAKKEN9-201330144531446352931101357110352
BAKKEN8-2013311649016410574112938188210963
BAKKEN7-201331183201841658911322739889146
BAKKEN6-201328187991878963371391653968440
BAKKEN5-201331240822414083361406695624411
BAKKEN4-20133029922298701175619524687712557
BAKKEN3-20133039986396363353022340022251
BAKKEN2-20130000000
BAKKEN1-20130000000
BAKKEN12-201211750000
BAKKEN11-2012201478173130111801058
BAKKEN10-2012312354208120176001668
BAKKEN9-2012302050235928159601507
BAKKEN8-2012232184195327148201415
BAKKEN7-2012252176213419160101536
BAKKEN6-2012302516257644193901852
BAKKEN5-2012313038297859225702166
  • 18988, 1,835, WPX/RimRock, Two Shields Butte 14-21-33-15H, Heart Butte, t12/10; cum 584K 4/21;nice jump in production; cum 596K 10/22; cum 604K 3/24
BAKKEN5-2019304885501630026241719481
BAKKEN4-2019263721359733719461313367
BAKKEN3-20193167566779163128832132405
BAKKEN2-20192863026256338185034885611
BAKKEN1-201931656565736507747859071281
BAKKEN12-201822445844142660646145841663
BAKKEN11-2018001280000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-2018128941079982513690
BAKKEN8-201812106674514679330489
BAKKEN7-201815110712141474116354471
BAKKEN6-2018302127218124642315986192
BAKKEN5-20182920871992236916605550
BAKKEN4-2018292076209224551656432115
BAKKEN3-201828224422102551136588578
BAKKEN2-20182820332052229523721071114
BAKKEN1-2018302170221123552423894285
BAKKEN12-20173122822265259332332159843
BAKKEN11-20173021422117139331792531435
BAKKEN10-20173126132538203333863028125
BAKKEN9-20173024062437240927171496999

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

An XTO Teddy Federal Well Produces 108K Bbls Crude Oil In One Month -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48012B

The Teddy Federal wells are tracked here

So, what do you think of this one? The parent well remains off line. I don't see any explanation for this looking at the map. I don't have any idea what's going on but it's obvious there is some activity on the pad, but in the meantime, look at these production numbers.

  • 35218, 3,156, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, Dunn County; 20 southeast of Watford City; sited in section 5-148-97; a six-well pad; middle Bakken; sections  34, 27, and 23-149-97; three-section-long horizontal; 1920-acre drilling unit; 20.5 total drilling days; t12/23; one month of produciton, and then came off line; t12/23; cum 127K 12/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20240000000
BAKKEN2-2024004030000
BAKKEN1-20248113191253457561950319254209
BAKKEN12-202331108340108634534331693411681181040
BAKKEN11-2023370705704534993148820478
BAKKEN10-20235550095078590859

  • 35217, 1,977/SI/A, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, Dunn County; 50K extrapolates to 68K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20247104331199356881741016922301
BAKKEN2-202429756277497339387124940124435202
BAKKEN1-2024225017448373309428121880178872
BAKKEN12-202300420000
BAKKEN11-202331561149235116401164
  •  35219, 714, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, Dunn County; t1/24; cum 139K 2/24; off line 3/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202411130581375979702389323422392
BAKKEN2-2024295405454173312868939989102145
BAKKEN1-20243159031587303911295305940991042
BAKKEN12-202311115211142673781665016491108
BAKKEN11-20232579085818071696105
BAKKEN10-20236687015802184601846
  •  35215, IA/SI-->SI/A, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5EXH, North Fork, 1/24; cum 114K 2/24; now offline;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2024111375014391105882563825135422
BAKKEN2-2024295734157436493469709596784158
BAKKEN1-2024264227640918360716860867754719
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-20237260021595119001190

Holy Mackerel -- For The Archives -- The Market Today -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48011INV.  

Updates

May 31, 2024: today was the best day of the year for the Dow. Holy Mackerel!

May 31, 2024: wow, what a day!

Original Post

Looks like sector rotation. If you sold (in May) yesterday and went away, you missed out on a huge market today -- assuming you sold and put everything in cash. What a crazy market. Dow closes up 600 points in afternoon trading.

BRK must have had an incredible day. Let's check: BRK -- yeah, up 1.42%.

The only thing that could explain things -- BIG OIL must have had a huge day. Wow. 

Curious?

What did WTI do? Holy mackerel -- I just tuned into CNBC at the close -- Dow closes up nearly 600 points. What a great day to be fully invested. 

Look at MRO: up 13%.

The laggards: none of which interest me.

DIS was not mentioned. What did DIS do? Up 2%. 

Chevron up 3%.

This is simply amazing. Friday afternoon. We talked about his earlier ... 

CAT down 3%.

Comcast up 4%. WBD up 8%.

Big Oil had a big day but not due to jump in oil price. WTI was actually down and trending toward $77.

I don't know what happened -- the talking heads certainly can't explain it. 

Month of May was incredibly good for tech (think Nvidia) and AAPL up 12% in the month of May.  Even today, AAPL went up another dollar.

Wow. Enough of this.

Mike Santoli: lots of talk but no aha! From one of the best analysts

Fast Money: later today, in about 45 minutes. It will be interesting to hear what the "Debbie downers" have to say. I assume a lot of prudent-signaling. I quit watching them some time ago -- they were simply too negative. At best, always prudent-signaling. My hunch: they will blow off the 600-blow-out as simply a one-off.

************************
ETSC

Is anyone / everyone paying attention? Note: this is just one "tiny" sector of the US economy -- data centers.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.23.

Active rigs: 36.

Eight new permits, #40796 - #40803, inclusive:

  • Operators: Grayson Mill (2), Slawson, Silver Hill Energy Operating (3), WPX (2).
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (Dunn); Bully (McKenzie); Gros Ventre (Burke); Heart Butte (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Silver Hill has permits for three wells: two Holmen E wells and one Oliver E well; NWNE 20-159-93, 
      • to be sited 497 FNL and at 2037, 1967, and 2002 FEL;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for two Bice wells, lot 4 and lot 3, section 18-148-97; 
      • one to be sited 903 FSL and 572 FWL; and, 
      • one to be sited 2140 FSL and 325 FWL;
    • WPX has permits for a Two Shields Butte well and a High Hawk well, both in NWNW 10-149-92; 
      • the TSB to be sited 281 FNL and 841 FWL; and, 
      • the HH well to be sited 308 FNL and 827 FWL;
    • Slawson has a permit for a Daredevil Federal well, lot 3, secton 2-148-100, 
      • to be sited 300 FNL and 2250 FWL.

One permit canceled.

  • 38228, WPX, Two Shields Butte, Heart Butte.
  • the Two Shields Butte wells are tracked here.

Automobile Supply Chain Back To Relative Normal? May 31, 2024

Locator: 48010AUTOS

During the pandemic and for a couple of years thereafter the car sales lots were virtually empty in north Texas. I predicted there would be an oversupply of cars by the summer of 2023 (or maybe it was 2022 -- I forget but either way I was wrong). Through the end of 2023, the lots were fairly vacant but gradually filling in with new cars for sale. 

Today, out of curiosity I decided to check out the lots. There are several in our local area.

This was the first lot. This lot is a "long" way from the dealer's sales office -- every space was taken up by a brand new pickup truck, and it appears a truckload (or two) of muscle cars were dropped off within the last few days.


From here I went down to the Honda dealer -- the lot these past two years, pretty much empty. Today, absolutely full, and the prices were excellent.

Retirement And Investing -- Is Gen Z The Taylor Swift Generation? May 31, 2024

Locator: 48009TS. 

Updates

Tuesday, June 4, 2024
: "She dominates our age!" How Taylor Swift became the greatest show on earth. Link to The [London] Guardian

Original Post

Gen Z: stepping up, making America great. Link here. Gen Z, when it comes to money, has a great, great role model.

Gen Z is off to a strong start in saving for retirement, and the youngest generation in the workforce has aggressive expectations for when they will call it quits on their careers.

Median retirement savings for Gen Z is $29,000, according to a new retirement survey by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The research shows 68% of survey respondents believe their savings are on track or ahead of schedule.

And they may need every penny: 44% of Gen Z respondents expect to retire before 60, even as many of today’s older workers plan to stay on the job longer to shore up their savings. Working baby boomers reported a target retirement age of between 65 and 69, according to the survey.

Members of Gen Z, people born between 1997 and 2012, have perhaps benefited the most from retirement plan features such as auto-enrollment, so-called auto-escalation, and target-date funds as the default investment. Popularized after the Pension Protection Act of 2006, these features assume participation, requiring uninterested employees to opt out of contributing to a retirement account and having their contribution rate increased on a regular schedule.

Born between 1997 and 2012, these folks are currently between the ages of 12 and 27 years of age. 

Hot 100-singles in 2014:

"Shake It Off" ranked #135 by Rolling Stone, ranking all of Taylor Swift's songs to date.

 **********************************
The Book Page

The Princes in the Tower: Solving History's Greatest Cold Case, Philippa Langley, c. 2023.

The Wide, Wide Sea: Imperial Ambition, First Contact and hte Fateful Final Voyage of Captain James Cook, Hampton Sides, c. 2024.