RBN: The COP-MRO Deal -- May 31, 2024

Locator: 48003B.

Jeep: the company that is going to introduce a $25K all-electric SUV "very soon" has just unveiled a $72K all-electric Jeep Wagoneer with a range of .... drum roll .... 300 miles. Which means about 240 miles to "protect" the battery. EV battery advice, the 80-20 rule:

• don't charge greater than 80 percent
• don't let charge run down below 20 percent
• so, I guess, 60% x 300 = 180 miles will be the recommendation if one wants to save the battery in a $72,000 SUV
• if a $72K SUV gets you 180 miles, I can only imagine the range of a $25K EV
• reminder: the battery accounts for upwards of 80% of the cost of an EV 
• range will be less where it gets very, very cold in the winter
  

World War: they're not calling it that yet, but this certainly has morphed into something bigger than many expected. We have two notes today, the first from Peter Zeihan:  

The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough? Countries like Sweden, Poland and France are leading the charge, Germany has recently jumped on the train, and momentum is building. The initial rationale behind preventing Ukraine from using these weapons to strike within Russia was to prevent (or try to avoid) escalation. However, the mounting support in Europe has put the pressure on the Americans to make a decision, and soon.

And then this, from Foreign Affairs, last week:

If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition in invading Ukraine was to rein in NATO, it had precisely the opposite effect. In April 2023, Finland joined the alliance, more than doubling the length of NATO’s border with Russia, and in March 2024, Sweden became a member as well. As U.S. President Joe Biden has said of Putin: “He thought he’d get the Finlandization of NATO; instead, he got the NATO-ization of Finland—and Sweden.”

Fifty years later: the fourth busiest global flight route --  Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City (formerly known as Saigon).

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Consolidation: there's a lot of talk in the oil patch about consolidation. Be that as it may, anecdotally, in the past year, it appears the players in the Bakken are changing with regard to size and aggressiveness. I'm looking at

• COP (BR in the Bakken) -- MRO
• Phoenix Capital Group / Phoenix Operating
• I keep forgetting Devon bought WPX back in 2021, creating one of the nation's largest players with dominant positions in both the Permian and the Bakken
  
• Chord -- this one is particularly interesting, dare I say "amazing"?
• seemingly out of nowhere, it brought together Oasis and Whiting, two of the bigger names in the Bakken, and now, still digesting that deal, it is now buying Enerplus;
• from an investor's point of view, I was always hoping Enerplus would go public. I just didn't expect it to happen this way. I believe Chord / Enerplus closes today.
  

Bakken minerals: in a sidebar e-mail with a reader, the price being offered for Bakken minerals is climbing to very high levels.

Most recent offer: $31,000 for net mineral acre in Tier 1 Bakken to a small mom-and-pop mineral owner. This is just one of several examples posted on the blog in the last six months. Another example.

Phoenix Capital: a reader brought up this name; more on this later. Interesting.

WTI: back below $78; trading at $77.85.

Sunday,  June 2, 2024: 49 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 312 for the year
40186, conf, CLR, Sloan 7-8H,
39654, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom-156-98-2734H-2,
39385, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 4-8-11TFH,

Saturday, June 1, 2024: 46 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 309 for the year
40185, conf, CLR, Sloan 6-8H,
39384, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 1B UTFH,
39327, conf, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 4,

Friday, May 31, 2024: 43 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 306 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: the COP-MRO deal is tracked here on the blog. Today, from RBN Energy, assessing the COP/MRO oil deal. Archived.

Another day, another mega-deal between top-tier oil and gas producers — or so it seems. Now, it’s ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil’s turn, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a more logical pairing among the ever-shrinking list of big E&Ps that hadn’t already found a partner during the ongoing frenzy to consolidate. In today’s RBN blog, we examine ConocoPhillips’s newly announced, $22.5 billion agreement to acquire Marathon Oil with a look at their similar histories, their complementary assets, and what will now be their joint effort to boost shareholder returns.