Wednesday, August 21, 2019
From Twitter Today: Rigs And Cushing -- August 21, 2019
Two graphics.
I do not recall any analyst, at the time, stating widely and publicly that Cushing would not reach its full capacity. A link would have been nice. Trust but verify.
Rigs don't matter .... except to those who have not adjusted their thinking from conventional to unconventional drilling ...
I do not recall any analyst, at the time, stating widely and publicly that Cushing would not reach its full capacity. A link would have been nice. Trust but verify.
Rigs don't matter .... except to those who have not adjusted their thinking from conventional to unconventional drilling ...
Gasoline Demand -- Steady As She Goes -- August 21, 2019
Link here:
Hardly suggests a "recession right around the corner." By the way, two nights ago mainstream media clarified what "they" meant by "right around the corner." They suggested the recession is likely to be seen in early- to mid-2021. Of course, that was just one source.
Hardly suggests a "recession right around the corner." By the way, two nights ago mainstream media clarified what "they" meant by "right around the corner." They suggested the recession is likely to be seen in early- to mid-2021. Of course, that was just one source.
Active Rigs Back Up To 64; The Amber Renee And Sophia Drake To Be Re-Entered -- August 21, 2019
Active rigs:
Eight new permits, #36881 - 36888, inclusive)
| $55.68 | 8/21/2019 | 08/21/2018 | 08/21/2017 | 08/21/2016 | 08/21/2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 64 | 61 | 52 | 32 | 76 |
Eight new permits, #36881 - 36888, inclusive)
- Operators: Oasis (4); XTO (2); Murex (2)
- Fields: Willow Creek, Haystack Butte, Sanish
- Comments:
- Oasis has permits for a 4-well Cliff Federal pad in lot 1 / section 5-152-100, Willow Creek
- XTO has permits for 2-well Ernest Federal pad in section 19-148-97, Haystack Butte
- Murex has permits to re-enter two wells in the Sanish, the Sophia Drake and the Amber Renee (see this post)
- 32927, 239, Sinclair, Sinclair State 5-36H, Robinson Lake, t7/19; cum --;
- 35164, 736, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-3, Werner, t7/19; cum --;
- 35361, 809, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-6, , Werner, t7/19; cum --;
- 36044, 1,683, Kraken Operating, Ruffing 27-34 5H, Lone Tree Lake, t7/19; cum --;
- 36045 1,302, Kraken Operating, Ruffing 27-34 4H, Lone Tree Lake, t7/19; cum --;
Permits To Re-Enter The Amber Renee; Drill The Sophia Drake -- August 21, 2019
I would be hard pressed to find another well that I've tracked as much as I've tracked the Amber Renee, or posted as many updates. The Amber Renee was an early well, and an incredible well. I was surprised it was taken off line. There was never any explanation. I kept it on my "things to follow up" page for years and then about two months ago finally removed it; it appeared nothing was going to happen.
Then, all of a sudden, it (and the Sophia Drake) show up today on the daily activity report (to be re-entered, #36887 and #36888).
The two wells:
Here are just a few of the posts where I've mentioned or updated the Amber Renee.
Earlier notes from elsewhere in the blog regarding the Amber Renee:
Now, today in the daily activity report, permits for both the Amber Renee and the Sophia Drake to be re-entered. Not yet on conf list.
Amber Renee:
Sophia Drake:
Permit to re-enter the Amber Renee:
Permit to re-enter the Sophia Drake:
Permit to drill the original Amber Renee:
Then, all of a sudden, it (and the Sophia Drake) show up today on the daily activity report (to be re-entered, #36887 and #36888).
The two wells:
- 18408, 1,945, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish, t2/10; cum 822K 11/13; last full month of production, 11/13 with 7,000 bbls/month;
- 30312, PNC, Sophia Drake 25-36H, Sanish, no indication this well was ever spud;
- 17263, 3,124, Murex, Chandler James 25-36H, Sanish, t10/08; cum 1.146306 million bbls 6/19; producing about 2,000 bpm as of 6/19;
Here are just a few of the posts where I've mentioned or updated the Amber Renee.
Earlier notes from elsewhere in the blog regarding the Amber Renee:
- August 1, 2018: #30312; still confidential; sits between two million-bbl wells; Amber Renee was only 800K but it was shut down for some reason; #30312 is Sophia Drake -- eager to see how this one does; remains on conf 6/19;
- December 3, 2014: operator to re-enter;
- the operator wants to re-enter the Amber Renee (#18408). Noted on January 27, 2016, to be AB (abandoned). Now TA as of 3/16; sundry form March 8, 2016 -- original well bore plugged; "future use of of the wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve." Operator requests Amber Renee 25-36H be granted TA status for one (1) year.
- September 14, 2017: wells I no longer follow;
- April 18, 2015: TA/Amber Renee, #18408, went inactive 1/14 after huge drop in production; did something happen on a work-over; did putting in a pump cause a problem? TA; October, 2014, file report has sundry forms talking about a re-drill;
- March 27, 2016, wells I no longer follow;
- random update; November 29, 2016
- random update: July 2, 2016
- simple housekeeping: March 27, 2016
- temporarily abandoned: March 8, 2016
- to follow up: February 3, 2016
- the Sophia Drake: December 24, 2105 -- graphic here;
- every well has a story: November 9, 2015
- off line again: February 24, 2015
- random update: February 6,2 015
- top 20 middle Bakken wells: July 8, 2014
- happy birthday, Ms Amber Renee: April 15, 2013
- inappropriate exuberance: August 1, 2011
- update on three monster wells in the Sanish: February 21, 2011
- some very good wells coming off the confidential list: June 21, 2010
Now, today in the daily activity report, permits for both the Amber Renee and the Sophia Drake to be re-entered. Not yet on conf list.
Amber Renee:
Sophia Drake:
Permit to re-enter the Amber Renee:
Permit to re-enter the Sophia Drake:
Permit to drill the original Amber Renee:
A Very Nice Producing Croff Oil Well Comes Off Line -- August 21, 2019
The well:
- 22377, 1,482, Petroshale/SM Energy, Anderson 5-14H, Croff, t7/12; cum 467K 4/19; off line as of 4/19;
Flight To Safety? The Road To Germany -- August 21, 2019
Updates
August 26, 2019: at the conclusion of the G-7 summit, Stuart Varney --
Varney believes that it is time for America's European allies to get on board with the President's agenda.
"Europeans are frankly scared of America. Their economies are sinking. They've entered the fantasy land of negative interest rates. Their money is pouring over here, and they just don't know what to do.
My advice -- jump on the Trump train and quit whining about Iran and climate change," advised Varney.Think about it, energy, money, economy ...
- on energy: Europe is in deep trouble; the only continent that will have to import all its oil
- on energy: Europe, dependent on Russia
- on money: flight to safety -- EU money flowing to the US
- on economy: EU will head into recession before the US; and the US may not enter a recession; the US still has more arrows in its quiver; the EU is pretty much out of arrows
By the way, I've not seen any stories in the longest time about "extreme weather" in Europe. Europeans have that figured out, also.
By the way, did Macron get anything for surprising Trump and inviting Iran to the G-7 summit. Not that I've heard.
Original Post
Folks are wondering why the yields on US Treasuries are falling.
One of the blog's readers provided an answer to that question some days ago. Now The Wall Street Journal provides the same answer.
The readers of the blog never fail to amaze me.
************************************
Phoning It In
"Did you hear? Yeah, like I'm going to pay Angela Merkel 5% on my bonds. LOL. I'm buying MDU. They say electricity demand will surge in the Bakken over the next twenty years. Yeah, I know MDU is not the sharpest knife in the drawer -- whatever. Best bet? F. Paying almost 7%. The Ford family is huge. The cousins are living off Ford's dividends. You think F will cut their dividend? LOL. Hey, what are you doing for lunch? Okay. I'll have my people talk to your people."
Bakken Readers Never Cease To Amaze Me -- August 21, 2019
A reader sent me this link regarding an open house in Valley City earlier this summer for Drug Plastics.
I was curious. What does "Drug Plastics" do and why was the expansion necessary?
Now, look at this URL: https://www.cannabistech.com/directory/drug-plastics/.
Note the logo at the website. It matches the logo at the Valley City facility.
And what does "Drug Plastics" do?
From the website:
North Dakota ships light, sweet oil (CBR) to Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania ships plastic back to North Dakota to make plastic containers for marijuana.
What a great country!
But as the reader noted: why aren't we making that plastic here in, say, Tioga?
And why does a Pennsylvania-based plastics company have a plant in North Dakota? Let me count the ways:
I was curious. What does "Drug Plastics" do and why was the expansion necessary?
Drug Plastics in Valley City will be installing four new bottle processing machines to greatly increase their manufacturing capacity for a new client.First, the photo at the link for the facility in North Dakota:
Now, look at this URL: https://www.cannabistech.com/directory/drug-plastics/.
Note the logo at the website. It matches the logo at the Valley City facility.
And what does "Drug Plastics" do?
From the website:
North Dakota ships light, sweet oil (CBR) to Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania ships plastic back to North Dakota to make plastic containers for marijuana.
What a great country!
But as the reader noted: why aren't we making that plastic here in, say, Tioga?
And why does a Pennsylvania-based plastics company have a plant in North Dakota? Let me count the ways:
- inexpensive electricity
- educated and motivated workforce
- right-to-work
- lower wages (because cost-of-living less expensive in North Dakota)
- fewer regulations to get a plant up and running
- lower taxes
- less crime
Assumptions -- August 21, 2019
Let's assume full years.
2015 - 2019, inclusive: five years.
Let's assume 1.1 million bopd produced in the state during those five years.
1.1 million x 365 days x five years = 2,000 million bbls of crude oil produced in those five years.
Let's assume there was a spill of 11 million gallons or 300,000 barrels.
Let's assume my calculator doesn't make mistakes.
300,000 / 2,000,000,000 = 0.00015 or 0.015%.
For the archives.
Let's assume no arithmetic errors which is a huge assumption.
Let's assume it was a really, really slow news day in Grand Forks yesterday.
2015 - 2019, inclusive: five years.
Let's assume 1.1 million bopd produced in the state during those five years.
1.1 million x 365 days x five years = 2,000 million bbls of crude oil produced in those five years.
Let's assume there was a spill of 11 million gallons or 300,000 barrels.
Let's assume my calculator doesn't make mistakes.
300,000 / 2,000,000,000 = 0.00015 or 0.015%.
For the archives.
Let's assume no arithmetic errors which is a huge assumption.
Let's assume it was a really, really slow news day in Grand Forks yesterday.
Hess -- Best-Performing US Oil Company So Far This Year -- August 21, 2019
Re-posting:
From The WSJ --
From The WSJ --
Hess Corp. has emerged as the best-performing U.S. oil company this year.
The reasons have little to do with the American fracking boom. Instead, Hess’s popularity with investors is rooted in a small South American nation.
The New York-based company holds a 30% stake in an immense offshore oil field being developed by Exxon Mobil Corp. in Guyana that appears poised to become one of the most lucrative megaprojects in years.
The company’s shares have surged more than 50% in 2019, the biggest increase of any major U.S. oil operator, excluding companies acquired in deals.
It is a peculiar scenario for Hess, one of the largest shale producers in North Dakota: shareholders are excited about a prized asset it has an interest in, but doesn’t control.
Hess acquired its stake in Guyana from Royal Dutch Shell PLC in 2014 for an undisclosed price.
The company initially estimated the resource total at about 500 million barrels of oil. Now it appears to be at least 12 times that amount, making it one of the most significant discoveries in decades.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. But I do have to say that I started accumulating Hess about a year ago but for all the wrong reasons. It might make up for holding on to some real "dogs" that I should have sold years ago. Whatever.
Germany, Hess -- Cleaning Out The In-Box -- August 21, 2019
How do you solve a problem like Germany? -- WSJ, August 19, 2019 -- data points -- op-ed by the WSJ editorial board --
From The WSJ --
- Berlin prepares to cave to the Keynesians but could do so much better
- Germany might cautiously cobble together a Keynesian stimulus policy for its recession-enaced country
- IMF wants Germany to "use" its fiscal headroom to avert a recession; headroom?
- a balanced budget
- government debt below 60% of GDP
- but this is how they want to spend the stimulus money:
- public works
- lay more high-speed internet cables
- fill in potholes on the autobahn
- worst idea: some form of cash-for-clunkers tax handout to support the auto industry
- Germany's worst problem: regulations
A dishonorable mention goes to Mrs. Merkel’s Energiewende (energy transformation), which is driving up costs for businesses already struggling with trade war, taxes and regulation. The chemical industry, Germany’s fifth-largest in contribution to GDP, is in an eight-year slump owing in part to rapidly rising energy costs, as Deutsche Bank noted last week. Many medium-sized companies aren’t exempt from surcharges that subsidize renewables, which aren’t reliable enough to provide the steady power that chemical plants require.
***********************************************
Hess
From The WSJ --
Hess Corp. has emerged as the best-performing U.S. oil company this year.
The reasons have little to do with the American fracking boom. Instead, Hess’s popularity with investors is rooted in a small South American nation.
The New York-based company holds a 30% stake in an immense offshore oil field being developed by Exxon Mobil Corp. in Guyana that appears poised to become one of the most lucrative megaprojects in years.
The company’s shares have surged more than 50% in 2019, the biggest increase of any major U.S. oil operator, excluding companies acquired in deals.
It is a peculiar scenario for Hess, one of the largest shale producers in North Dakota: shareholders are excited about a prized asset it has an interest in, but doesn’t control.
Hess acquired its stake in Guyana from Royal Dutch Shell PLC in 2014 for an undisclosed price.
The company initially estimated the resource total at about 500 million barrels of oil. Now it appears to be at least 12 times that amount, making it one of the most significant discoveries in decades.
Legacy Fund Deposits For August, 2019, Have Posted
Link here.
August, 2019: $55,073,428.30 --
August, 2019: $55,073,428.30 --
- exceeds the deposit average for 2019
- exceeds the deposit average for five of the past eight years (excludes current year)
EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 21, 2019
While we're waiting, existing home sales (US), mortgage rates are really, really low and might go lower:
WTI: up about 65 cents; trading at $56.74, about at the sweet sport for all involved.
EIA's weekly petroleum report: link here.
- prior: 5.270 million
- prior revised: 5.290 million
- consensus: 5.385 million
- actual: 5.420 million
- m/m change: up 2.5%
- y/y change: up 0.6%
**********************************************
The Weekly Petroleum Report
WTI: up about 65 cents; trading at $56.74, about at the sweet sport for all involved.
EIA's weekly petroleum report: link here.
- weekly US crude oil inventories: fell by 2.7 million bbls
- weekly US crude oil inventory: 437.8 million bbls, about 2% above the five-year average, and that five-year average keeps building
- refiners operating capacity: 95.9% of their operable capacity; nearing high end of what is generally reporte
- imports continue to fall; down by almost a half-million bopd from the previous week
- imports are almost 11% less than the same four-week period last year (and those numbers keep falling)
- total product supplied: now solidly above 20 million bpd, up 3% from same period last year
- jet fuel product supplied was up 4% compared with same four-week period last year
- gasoline up 1.5% from same period last year
- we'll see the gasoline demand numbers and graphic later today
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 6
|
January 4, 2019
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 7
|
January 9, 2019
|
-1.7
|
439.7
|
Week 8
|
January 16, 2019
|
-2.7
|
437.1
|
Week 9
|
January 24, 2019
|
8.0
|
445.0
|
Week 10
|
January 31, 2019
|
0.9
|
445.9
|
Week 11
|
February 6, 2019
|
1.3
|
447.2
|
Week 12
|
February 13, 2019
|
3.6
|
450.8
|
Week 13
|
February 21, 2019
|
3.7
|
454.5
|
Week 14
|
February 27, 2019
|
-8.6
|
445.9
|
Week 15
|
March 6, 2019
|
7.1
|
452.9
|
Week 16
|
March 13, 2019
|
-3.9
|
449.1
|
Week 17
|
March 20, 2019
|
-9.6
|
439.5
|
Week 18
|
March 27, 2019
|
2.8
|
442.3
|
Week 19
|
April 3, 2019
|
7.2
|
449.5
|
Week 20
|
April 10, 2019
|
7.0
|
456.5
|
Week 21
|
April 17, 2019
|
-1.4
|
455.2
|
Week 22
|
April 24, 2019
|
5.5
|
460.1
|
Week 23
|
May 1, 2019
|
9.9
|
470.6
|
Week 24
|
May 8, 2019
|
-4.0
|
466.6
|
Week 25
|
May 15, 2019
|
5.4
|
472.0
|
Week 26
|
May 22, 2019
|
4.7
|
476.8
|
Week 27
|
May 30, 2019
|
-0.3
|
476.5
|
Week 28
|
June 5, 2019
|
6.8
|
483.3
|
Week 29
|
June 12, 2019
|
2.2
|
485.5
|
Week 30
|
June 19, 2019
|
-3.1
|
482.4
|
Week 31
|
June 26, 2019
|
-12.8
|
469.6
|
Week 32
|
July 3, 2019
|
-1.1
|
468.5
|
Week 33
|
July 10, 2019
|
-9.5
|
459.0
|
Week 34
|
July 17, 2019
|
-3.1
|
455.9
|
Week 35
|
July 24, 2019
|
-10.8
|
445.1
|
Week 36
|
July 31, 2019
|
-8.5
|
436.5
|
Week 37
|
August 7, 2019
|
2.4
|
438.9
|
Week 38
|
August 14, 2019
|
1.6
|
440.5
|
Week 29
|
August 21, 2019
|
-2.7
|
437.8
|
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)