Sunday, November 3, 2019

Hardest Working States -- WalletHub -- November 3, 2019

First things first, politics: there are several new polls out. Very, very interesting. My thoughts here.

Now back to regular programming.

Two minutes ago I said I was going to go to bed, and then checking the in-box, this showed up from a reader.


More tomorrow.

Link here, WalletHub, August 26, 2019.

Link here, August 26, 2019.

On another note, folks might want to take a look at "futures" (9:22 p.m. CT, Sunday night, November 3, 2019).
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Something Goin' On? I Don't Know -- November 3, 2019

I'm heading to bed. Maybe I'll look at these again later, although I don't think there's much to add at this time.

This is a seven-well pad in Haystack Butte. The two producing wells have been off line since March, 2019, and they both came back on line in September, 2019.

Based on the production for these two wells and the fact they came back on line suggests the five wells on confidential status were recently fracked. I don't know. I didn't think wells were taken off line simply because neighboring wells were being drilled. Maybe I'm wrong.

One well, #35930, API: 33-053-0889, FracFocus: nope, no frack data posted.

Time will tell.

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Second Frack For A Bruin Antelope-Sanish Well -- November 3, 2019

Again, another example of what the Bakken is capable of. This is simply not supposed to happen, but in the Bakken it happens with regularity. Absolutely incredible. 

Full production profile for this well at this post. This well was drilled back in 2013; fracked then; re-fracked in late 2018; was off line from April, 2016, until January, 2019, off line for almost three years.

By the way, #24731 in the same area is another huge Bruin well with 619,000 bbls cumulative. 

The well:
  • 24739, conf-->loc-->DRL/IA->A, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-5H, Antelope-Sanish, 5K first month; cum 92K 2/14; no indication this well has been fracked yet, but I assume it has (2/14); cum 471K 9/19;
Drilled back in 2013; fracked then; re-fracked in late 2018; was off line from April, 2016, until January, 2019, almost three years -- this is the production data after the second frack, and well after the second frack:

 Second frack:

  • 24739, 2,668, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-5H, 2-section spacing; Antelope-Sanish, 54 stages; 8.9million lbs, t12/18; cum 471K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-20193097819873364432525276124196
SANISH8-2019311229012479481454228450398310
SANISH7-20193115416153186795606232908530795
SANISH6-20193018174182227577623402344938181
SANISH5-20193122307222379210605292668533150
SANISH4-201930297612974115918792603201346546
SANISH3-201926376103809116837819144125340013
SANISH2-201928425044214930362826735799423544
SANISH1-201917218412124226488312711012120739
SANISH12-20180000000
SANISH11-20180000000
SANISH10-20180000000



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Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- Profits -- Saudi Aramco, Apple, XOM -- November 3, 2019

Link here.
For the first half of 2019, Saudi Aramco posted a net profit of $46.9 billion, almost all of which was paid out in dividends to the Saudi state.
By comparison, for the same time period, Apple, the world's largest company by value currently, posted a net profit of $21.6 billion, and Exxon Mobil, the largest listed oil company, made $5.5bn.
That's interesting. Law of big numbers.

The prince feels Saudi Aramco should be valued at $2 trillion, with profits of $47 billion for 1H19.

Meanwhile, Apple's market cap is $1 trillion with profits about half of that $47 billion for 1Q19.

*****************************
Time To Move On

McDonald's CEO fired; accused of consensual relationship with employee. He is 52-years-old; the employee was unnamed. Not yet on Drudge? Fox News has it as a headline story.
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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Sunday, November 3, 2019

36300, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,

33965, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Tree, another great well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192530522114
5-201919510

30993, conf, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH, Elidah, no production data,

35438, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, Dollar Joe, no production data,

36299, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,

35439, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield156-97-1918H-7, Dollar Joe, no production data,

35691, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192613921116
5-201920690

35440, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-8, Dollar Joe, no production data,

36353, conf, Abraxas, Jore Yellowstone 2H, North Fork, no production data,

35441, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-9, Dollar Joe, no production data,

35294, conf, BR, Prairie Rose 1A MBH-ULW, Corral Creek, no production data,

35437, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-1, Dollar Joe, no production data;

35283, conf, Enerplus, Mulberry 149-93-21B-22H-TF, Mandaree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191596711754
8-20191756913195
7-2019119994749
6-20191597110741
5-20192030410535

34947, conf, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1H, Tyrone, surprisingly good:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191432311251
8-20192040015082
7-20192233015340
6-2019176016306
5-20192703114680

34926, conf, CLR, Collison 9-23H1, Avoca, not seeing any "negative" well interference in the Bakken, are we?
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20193001028048
8-20191666716938
7-20193515137249
6-20191567113588
5-20197490

34721, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 6B, Elidah, huge:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191498246726
8-201938823115124
7-20194018999481
6-20194490887636
5-20192055745952

33963, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191687616360
5-201922460

30087, conf, Sinclair, Highland 6-9TFH, Sanish, a short, 640-acre well (see also #23476 -- Oasis, offline, huge well; #18377 -- Sinclair. off line):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2019117260

35174, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H South, Sergis, a Madison, remember, these wells cost very little to drill:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192690
7-20194250
6-20197560
5-20198900

35102, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H North, Sergis, a Madison:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191460
7-20194070
6-20195490
5-20195390

34925, conf, CLR, Collison 10-23H1, Avoca, another huge well in a surprisingly good field:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20193054932533
8-20191240513546
7-20193267135290
6-20192491022248
5-20194950

33028, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, Elm Tree, another huge well in this field:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192766817156
5-201913900

29379, conf, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-9,  Baskin, no production data,

35735, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-12H3, Heart Butte, another great well; these wells are tracked here:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192368618857
8-20191953212837
7-20192251516623
6-201972252536

35734, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-12H, Heart Butte, another great well; these wells are tracked here:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192658621565
8-20191797514162
7-20192953020810
6-201988103878

35733, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-5H3, Heart Butte, another great well; these wells are tracked here:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192072317896
8-20192476516675
7-20193575323441
6-20191086574

35732, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-5H, Heart Butte, another great well; these wells are tracked here:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192603922330
8-20193081220188
7-20193069121209

35624, conf, Liberty Resources, Gliko 159-93-23-35-1MBHX,  Gros Ventre, never considered a particularly great field, now look at this (and look at a 50-fold jump in production due to the "halo effect"):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2019139560
8-2019197670
7-2019143610
6-2019192760
5-2019219570

 34720, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 5T, Elidah:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192101260468
8-20192571963885
7-20192661655496
6-20193411161467
5-20192119247603

29378, conf, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-8, Baskin, no production data,
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 3, 2019

Monday, November 11, 2019: 34 for the month; 129 for the quarter:
36300, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-6H, 
33965, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2,
30993, conf, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH, 

Sunday, November 10, 2019: 31 for the month; 126 for the quarter:
35438, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, 

Saturday, November 9, 2019: 30 for the month; 125 for the quarter:
36299, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-6H, 
35439, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield156-97-1918H-7, 

Friday, November 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 123 for the quarter:
35691, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, 
35440, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-8, 

Thursday, November 7, 2019: 26 for the month; 121 for the quarter:
36353, conf, Abraxas, Jore Yellowstone 2H,
35441, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-9,
35294, conf, BR, Prairie Rose 1A MBH-ULW,

Wednesday, November 6, 2019: 23 for the month; 118 for the quarter:
35437, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-1,
35283, conf, Enerplus, Mulberry 149-93-21B-22H-TF, 
34947, conf, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1H,
34926, conf, CLR, Collison 9-23H1, 

Tuesday, November 5, 2019: 19 for the month; 114 for the quarter:
34721, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 6B, 
33963, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1,

Monday, November 4, 2019: 17 for the month; 112 for the quarter:
30087, conf, Sinclair, Highland 6-9TFH, 

Sunday, November 3, 2019: 16 for the month; 111 for the quarter:
35174, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H South, 
35102, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H North, 
34925, conf, CLR, Collison 10-23H1, 
33028, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, 
29379, conf, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-9, 

Saturday, November 2, 2019: 11 for the month; 106 for the quarter:
35735, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-12H3, 
35734, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-12H, 
35733, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-5H3, 
35732, conf, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 9-8-7-5H, 
35624, conf, Liberty Resources, Gliko 159-93-23-35-1MBHX, 
34720, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 5T, 
29378, conf, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-8,
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Sunday Morning, Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 3, 2019

Saudi Aramco IPO: smoke and mirrors. To be listed on local (Saudi) exchange. Prospectus won't be out until a week after IPO launched. No mention of valuation or % of company. Sort of explains why it's not on any of the major bourses. (Later: a valuation of $1.6 trillion, apparently.)

Looking for yield? From Bloomberg--

At a $1.6 trillion valuation, the yield would be 4.7%, against 4% for Chevron Corp., 5% for Exxon Mobil Corp. and 6% each for Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc. (Note that Chevron’s yield, adjusted for buybacks, is closer to 6%.) 
Enbridge Line 5: update from Reuters.

Propane, two stories:
  • back in July, 2019, farmers were warned
  • two days ago, propane delivery crisis plagues the midwest
  • do you remember this story, from December, 2013? the US propane shortage
  • from an earlier post, just a couple of days ago -- 
    • RBN Energy: don't bank on a boring propane market this winter.
      U.S. propane production has been on the rise for most of 2019, but propane consumption by steam crackers has been reined in by poor economics, and propane exports have been constrained by export-capacity shortfalls. That’s led to a big buildup in propane inventories, which stand at near-record levels as the market prepares for a winter heating season that is forecasted to be milder than normal. So we’re in for only a modest draw on propane stocks between now and spring, right? Not necessarily. There’s change in the air regarding propane supply, cracker demand and export capacity and, as we learned in the balmy winter of 2016-17, the U.S. propane market isn’t nearly as dependent on the weather as it used to be. Today, we assess recent market developments and explains why a big decline in propane stocks is a real possibility.
      Propane is an NGL purity product that has two primary uses: as a fuel (mostly for heating, but also for cooking and crop drying, and occasionally for cars, trucks and buses) or as a feedstock for petrochemical plants (steam crackers to make ethylene, or propane dehydrogenation -- PDH -- plants to make propylene). Propane also has two primary sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants, the latter of which separate out mixed NGLs from natural gas streams. These mixed NGLs from processing plants (also known as y-grade) then are sent to fractionators, where y-grade is divvied up into what are called “purity” products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The Shale Revolution has enabled the U.S. to produce more than enough propane to meet its own heating and petchem needs, and to become a major exporter of propane.
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Sunday Morning, Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 3, 2019

First things first: the week in pictures.

*****************************
Years Of Offshore Investments Could Be Valueless -- Rystad

Oil, offshore: "everyone" seems to remind us that there's no money in fracking. That may be. But it turns out it's just as bad offshore. From Rigzone:
  • Rystad evaluated all offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil under various oil price scenarios
  • offshore projects sanctioned between 2010 and 2012 have “barely been able to generate any value”  
  • projects sanctioned between 2013 and 2014 are “expected to have no value creation”.
  • for upstream companies to come out of the 2013-2014 investment years without “massive losses”, the oil price will need to increase to around $70 per barrel.
But:
  • Rystad said value creation is positive for sanctioning between 2015 and 2018, even when applying a future oil price of only $40 per barrel.
I think there might be a huge analogy here with shale. I'm thinking of the prices paid for the Permian between 2010 and 2016.

*********************************
Miscellaneous

MSFT: DOD JEDI win is huge; will be even bigger. Link here. The bigger story: the company that did not get JEDI. This was a no-brainer.

Ford: needs to find a horse it can ride and stay on it. This is getting tedious, but maybe the third time is the charm.

CROCS: wow, who wudda thought? Which stocks have been leading the big 3Q19 earnings rally? Quick: which ticker symbol seems out of place: FB, AAPL, TSLA, INTC, BAC, PYPL, CROX.

The bigger story: same link as above. Remember all that hand-wringing about 3Q19 earnings. Well, here we go again:
We are now about halfway through the third-quarter earnings season, and the numbers so far have been much, much better than expected.
Roughly 80% of companies that have reported earnings have reported better-than-expected earnings. And they’ve been topping profit expectations by about 4%, on average.
Meanwhile, 64% of companies have reported better-than-expected sales, with sales coming in about 1% above estimates. Broadly, then, the third-quarter earnings season has been really good.
So good, in fact, that it’s a big reason why the S&P 500 has surged to all-time highs in October.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Starbucks -- the new community library: a month or so ago, Starbucks quit selling hard copies of the WSJ, NYT, and the local newspaper. A few of us were disappointed. But again, Starbucks made it right. Logging into Starbucks in their coffee shops, one has access to any number of newspapers otherwise behind a paywall. When first announced a month or so ago, Starbucks had access to four national newspapers. Look at the list now. I'm most thrilled to have access to Barron's. This is quite remarkable. I understand that this "freebie" may be limited in time and that Starbucks could monetize this within a year. I hope not.


Warren Buffett loves newspapers:
  • Starbucks enterprise value: $110 billion.
  • Berkshire Hathaway cash on hand: $130 billion.
  • Apple cash on hand: $210 billion.
  • A Berkshire Hathway - Apple joint venture to buy Starbucks seems like a no-brainer
  • not in that list above: Omaha World-Herald, Kansas City Star
  • the Fort Worth Star-Telegram makes the list; the Dallas Morning News does not. 
  • neither the Washington Post nor The New York Times makes the list 
  • the more you look at this list, but more it looks like it was hand-picked by Warren
  • somewhat apocryphal: where did Ernest Hemingway get his start?

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It's Hard To Squeeze In More "Fun" In One Post Than What This Reader Sent Me -- November 3, 2019

From a reader overnight -- huge "thank you." Truly amazing ... yes, I saw the Breeder's Cup on television last night -- it was a fluke that I happened to catch it -- out at Santa Anita, CA --
A filly named "Covfefe" just won the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

Inline image
Now, here's the extra fun....

Bought at the Keeneland sale, the filly is owned by LNJ Foxwoods - a relatively new racing endeavor of parents Larry and Nanci Roth and their daughter, Jaime.  Jaime runs the stable.  Jaime is married to Olga Aguilar.

So, a gay Jewish woman names a filly Covfefe and wins a Breeders Cup.  What a longshot bet.  (;>)


Larry Roth made his fortune from the sale of an eyeglass company, Marchon.
...................

And, of course, the other meme of Trump - awarding the Medal of Pawnor to Conan - becomes extra delightful because that good dog is also a girl.   Emoji

America is one great country!
Later: a reader wrote to say the photo of Covfefe did not show up above -- in case it does not show up  -- here it is --


Later, from a reader:
She's a filly- and a fast one
And she just won her last one
You know the million dollar purse, the Breeders' Cup run.

She's a young one - just turned 3 ... Done
beat the 5 year olds
and showed 'em she's the top gun.

She drew a bad slot- the number one hole
Yup, right down along the rail and that's a low blow

For a sprinter.  And she broke late
Had to pull up, had to rate
Boxed in back - back behind those two, those two front-runners.

She moved outside- she saw some daylight
So she muscled in and then they went to 4 wide

She kept a clipping- and hit a high gear
On the second turn, sailed by and said "I'm outta here"

Bred by the Kleberg's- those King Ranch Texans
Sold at Keeneland as a yearling to some new hands

The family bought her - they have the money
And they also have a sense of humor, honey

The name they gave her, the name she's called
Would make Don King himself and even great apes bald

She's called Covfefe - yes, that's the Trump tweet
Covfefe won again and ain't that just too sweet!
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