FERC In The News; Oasis With Four New Permits; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; One DUC Reported As Completed -- September 9, 2021

FERC in the balance: will shift to Democrats. Link to Charles Kennedy.  

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, per the NDIC daily active report;

$67.92	9/9/2021	09/09/2020	09/09/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017
Active Rigs	26	11	62	66	55

Active rigs:

• CLR: 9
• Hess: 3

Four new permits, #38549- 38522, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for four Allen wells to be sited in SESW 36-151N-97W; the wells will be sited 360 FSL and between 1500 FWL and 1632 FWL

Two wells were released from confidential status (scout tickets probably inaccurate due to IT issues at NDIC, but this is what they are reporting):

• 35860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2A-11-3H, Little Knife, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 6K 7/21;
  
• 37884, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 3-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed (the scout ticket is probably inaccurate due to IT issues at NDIC, but this is what they are reporting):

• 36079, 553, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5B-8-2H, Little Knife, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 9, 2021

Dividends: the best best months for dividends are the months at the end of each quarter -- March, June, September, and December. And, of the four, September is the best of the four for investors. September is the month when stocks generally "go on sale," allowing mom-and-pop investors to maximize their dividends.

Streaming wars: Netflix is eating Apple's lunch. Link here. I track the streaming wars here, and the writer at the linked article has it exactly correct:

"I have not been impressed by what Apple has done. They have created a couple quality shows and a lot of less than interesting shows. They are just not getting that broad appeal yet," said Bank of America analyst Nat Schindler on Yahoo Finance Live. 

"They obviously have a lot of money, so they could really invest a lot. But they haven't to date. Their initial investment of about $1 billion in content is chump change. Netflix does that in much less than a month at this point." 

Netflix has said it intends to spend $17 billion to produce content in 2021. While reports in 2017 said Apple was spending just $1 billion on its initial slate of original content, by 2019 the tech giant had reportedly increased its original content budget to $6 billion to compete with the bigger streaming giants. 

That may still not be enough, though. Too bad Netflix isn't working on a car.

Jobless claims: initial claims at a post-pandemic low. 

Bully pulpit: I could be wrong, but I'm getting the feeling that Resident Biden knows exactly how to use the bully pulpit.

Polls: it's like the joke about the two hikers in the woods who see a bear. No matter how low one's polls are, one only has to out-poll your competitor.

*******************************
I'll Play The Blues For You 

Link here.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- The Week Of Hurricane Ida -- Barely A Regional Story When It Came To Energy -- September 9, 2021

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil inventories dropped by an unremarkable 1.5 million bbls; yawn
• US crude oil inventories now stand at 423.9 million bbls; 6% below the five-year average; yawn
• Hurricane Ida: refiners operating at 82% of their operable capacity
• US crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bbls per day last week; decreased by 0.5 million bbls per day; yawn
• over the past four weeks, the average of 6.2 million bbls per day imports is 12.2% more than the same four-week period last year -- noteworthy, especially for Russia, now that Resident Biden killed the Keystone XL
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbls; are 12% below the five-year average
• total petroleum inventories decreased by 10 million bbls last week
• jet fuel supplies was up 65.3% compared to same four-week period last year

 Really, really good news. Look at the jump in the most recent week provided:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 54	June 3, 2021	137.80%
Week 55	June 10, 2021	95.10%
Week 56	June 16, 2021	86.80%
Week 56	June 23, 2021	97.50%
Week 57	June 30, 2021	83.50%
Week 58	July 8, 2021	89.10%
Week 59	July 14, 2021	65.90%
Week 60	July 21, 2021	49.50%
Week 61	July 28, 2021	39.40%
Week 62	August 4, 2021	42.90%
Week 63	August 11, 2021	45.80%
Week 64	August 18, 2021	56.10%
Week 65	August 25, 2021	45.40%
Week 66	September 1, 2021	51.70%
Seek 66	September 9, 2021	65.30%

Really, really bad news, almost no weeks in which there has been a distillate build. I am being told that farmers are being "killed" by the high price of propane and diesel. Quick: from where do we get distillates? Be specific.

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions
Week 42	June 10, 2021	4.40
Week 43	June 16, 2021	-1.00
Week 44	June 23, 2021	1.80
Week 45	June 30, 2021	0.90
Week 46	July 8, 2021	1.60
Week 47	July 14, 2021	3.70
Week 48	July 21, 2021	-1.30
Week 49	July 28, 2021	-3.10
Week 50	August 4, 2021	0.80
Week 51	August 11, 2021	1.80
Week 52	August 18, 2021	-2.70
Week 53	August 25, 2021	0.60
Week 54	September 1, 2021	-1.70

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- Crude Oil Inventories With An Unremarkable Draw -- Yawn Hurricane Ida? What Hurricane? September 9, 2021

While we're waiting: Resident Biden is blaming high meat prices on the meat packers -- LOL -- everyone knows it was Covid-19 and, now the high energy prices due to Biden's energy policies, but that pales in comparison what might happen., At least one OPEC spokesperson is predicting " $200-oil" if ... and we move on ... talking his book ... LOL .... like "$200-oil" will ever happen ... link here. 

But how bad is it? China is now releasing state crude oil reserves for the first time. Link here. Is anyone paying attention? Or go direct to Reuters. 

I've always said the 21st century would be all about energy. This corroborates that sentiment: 

Saudi Aramco mulling a plan to lure foreign investors to one of the world's largest unconventional gas fields to fund a $110 billion project to diversify from crude oil. The field: the Jafurah site. Link here. 

Let's see how this goes: New York State has banned sale of gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035. Link here. California, I believe, has already done something similar. Don't know. Forgot. What folks don't realize: this is note fourteen years from now. Folks will have to start buying EVs in 2025 for a smooth transition ... that's only four years from now. Get out the popcorn ... a big bucket ... this will be fun to watch. What will we watch? Exodus of folks leaving the state and folks buying ICEs across the river in New Jersey. 

Europe: French one-year forward prices surged above $100 / MWh for the first time ever. Huge benchmark, apparently. I wouldn't know. Link here.

EIA weekly petroleum report:

• US crude oil inventories dropped by an unremarkable 1.5 million bbls; yawn
• US crude oil inventories now stand at 423.9 million bbls; 6% below the five-year average; yawn
• Hurricane Ida: refiners operating at 82% of their operable capacity
• US crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bbls per day last week; decreased by 0.5 million bbls per day; yawn
• over the past four weeks, the average of 6.2 million bbls per day imports is 12.2% more than the same four-week period last year -- noteworthy, especially for Russia, now that Resident Biden killed the Keystone XL
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbls; are 12% below the five-year average
• total petroleum inventories decreased by 10 million bbls last week
• jet fuel supplies was up 65.3% compared to same four-week period last year

Hurricane Ida? What hurricane? Is it fair to say that? Prior to release of this data, WTI had fallen a few cents overnight and was trading just over $69. After the report came out: WTI up 41 cents, still below $70. Oil traders know / knew something the rest of us do not / did not know. 

By the way, look at the history of bad weather / storms / tornadoes in fly-over country (Minnesota, in this case). Link here. So much for global warming causing severe weather -- looks like just the opposite, which by the way, would be expected if one thinks about it. 

Morning Report -- Thursday -- September 9, 2021

Worst prediction: once delta variant becomes a non-story, things will be back to normal. Not! This is a huge story for the airlines. Those who have invested in airlines with that expectation misunderstood human behavior. Elevator speech: people like to work from home; business people get tired of traveling day in, day out; Zoom meetings are much more productive. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple, Inc: before we get started -- Apple's entry-level iPad stocks are running low at retail stores and online, indicating an update to Apple's most profitable iPad would be in the offing and may even arrive as soon as this month. Link here. 

GameStop? Or as some might say, "stop loss." Down 10% in pre-market trading. Yesterday's "conference call"? A one-pay handout and no questions. Let's see, why did Biden just flash across my mind?

First things first, today:

• tonight, Dallas visits Tom Brady
• EIA's weekly petroleum report to be released later this morning
• take Olivia to school

Top story: yes, again, the high energy prices in the UK and Europe. Link here. This is not good ... for the Brits.

California: warns of strain on energy grid as heatwave nears.  

Again, it would have been nice to have the Keystone XL: Louisiana refineries have seemed to restore operations more quickly than offshore production ops. Refiners need more heavy oil. Link here.

Venezuela: oil industry hits rock bottom. China sees opportunity. Yawn.

Good for them! NBC fetches $6.5 million for Super Bowl ads, nearly sells out Beijing Winter Olympics spots. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/nbc-fetches-6-5m-for-super-bowl-ads-nearly-sells-out-beijing-olympics-spots.

Beer (SAM): it just keeps getting worse. I'll have to take another look later. Don't understand it. 

GeoSouthern (Haynesville) exploring $2 billion sale. Link here.

• formally called GEP Haynesville LLC: joint venture between a company founded by billionaire oil man George Bishop and Blackstone's credit arm
• this venture acquired land in the Louisiana portion of the Haynesville basin from Encana Corp -- now known as Ovintive Inc -- for about $850 million in 2015
• would be the latest shale gas deal in the Haynesville basin following Southwestern Energy Co's $2.7 billion acquisition of Indigo Natural Resources and Chesapeake Energy Cor's proposed buy of Vine Energy Inc earlier this year
• US natural gas futures jumped to their highest level since February, 2014, yesterday, Wednesday, September 9, 2021, extending gains to more than 90% since the start of the year. Is anyone paying attention?

Devon: I'm sure I posted this before, but if so, I had forgotten. Oh, yes, here it is. This was one of my better posts. I assume it was circulated around Wall Street some weeks ago. LOL. Sure. Anyway, I had forgotten:

Devon's dividend history is at this link. Note that this is the total dividend, not just the "fixed dividend."

• 2018: 8 cents each quarter
  
• 2019: 9 cents each quarter
  
• 2020: 11 cents in each of four quarters, but a "variable" dividend of 26 cents in August, 2020.
• 2021: this really gets interesting
• 4Q20: 11 cents
• 1Q21: 30 cents (almost triples)
• May, 2021: a "variable" dividend of 34 cents (13% more than the quarterly dividend, and this was an additional dividend on top of the quarterly dividends)
• 2Q21: 34 cents (13% increase over the first quarter dividend; identical to the special dividend paid a month earlier) 

• 3Q21: a whopping 49 cents (fixed plus variable) -- that's a 44% improvement over the previous quarter

Devon dividend, link here:

• record date: 9/13/21
• payment date: 9/30/21

• 3Q21: a whopping 49 cents (fixed plus variable) -- that's a 44% improvement over the previous quarter

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Covid-19 vaccine update, Wednesday, September 8, 2021:

• doses delivered to health agencies: 450,584,465
• doses administered to primates: 376,955,132
• at least one dose: 208,024,209
• fully vaccinated (well, sort of): 177,104,652

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs*, update COB non-holiday weekdays:

$69.27	9/9/2021	09/09/2020	09/09/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017
Active Rigs	25*	11	62	66	55

No wells coming off confidential list according ot NDIC. Stay tuned.

RBN Energy: tight balance supercharge gas market, propel prices over $5/MMBtu.

The natural gas futures contract for the prompt month barreled a net ~$1.00 (26%) higher in the past 12 days as the potential for prolonged production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida amplified already-heightened supply fears in both the U.S. and international gas markets. The blistering price action sent the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub October futures contract soaring on Wednesday to an intraday high above $5/MMBtu and as settle of $4.914/MMBtu, the highest during September trading since 2008, while the prompt December and January contracts settled above $5/MMBtu for the first time in years. 

Prices at European and Asian gas/LNG hubs have similarly rallied this summer to multi-year or even all-time highs. Offshore Gulf gas production has since begun to recover, slowly, after the Ida-damaged Port Fourchon in Louisiana, the base of offshore oil and gas operations, reopened over the Labor Day weekend, but the bulk of it remains offline as power outages and other operational challenges persist. The shut-ins are exacerbating an already tight market, marked by record LNG exports, lackadaisical production growth, and a growing inventory deficit compared with year-ago and five-year average levels. Those underlying fundamentals will remain a trigger point for price spikes well after Ida-related shut-ins recover. Today, we discuss where the gas market stands heading into the final months of the injection season and the implications for winter gas pricing.