Wiki: solar cycle 25. Consensus: a weak cycle, but not all agree. Currently, it is stronger than predicted. But "we" still know within a tenth of a degree how warm the Earth will be 100 years from now.
AI:
Link here. National Weather Service. US Federal government.
September 15, 2020 --
The solar minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 - the period when the sun is least active - happened in December 2019, when the 13-month smoothed sunspot number fell to 1.8, according to the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, co-chaired by NOAA and NASA. We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025, the panel said.
Solar Cycle 24 was average in length, at 11 years, and had the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. It was also the weakest cycle in 100 years. Solar maximum occurred in April 2014 with sunspots peaking at 114 for the solar cycle, well below average, which is 179.
Solar Cycle 24’s progression was unusual. The Sun’s Northern Hemisphere led the sunspot cycle, peaking over two years ahead of the Southern Hemisphere sunspot peak. This resulted in solar maximum having fewer sunspots than if the two hemispheres were in phase.
For the past eight months, activity on the sun has steadily increased, indicating we transitioned to Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is forecast to be a fairly weak cycle, the same strength as cycle 24. Solar maximum is expected in July 2025, with a peak of 115 sunspots.
Oil and gas executives told the Dallas Fed that recession remains a key concern ....
“It’s tough to tell where these crosscurrents are headed. On one hand, we don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the two-year to 10-year Treasury yield curve is inverted, implying recession,
and China is on lockdown basically every other day, so that means lower
prices in the near term (probably),” one executive commented.
However, the same executive noted, while long-term demand is strong and
OPEC continues to underperform, “shale core exhaustion” and inventory
concerns remain key issues.
“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and U.S. production will
be down 20 to 30 percent quickly. When it does—this feels like watching
the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s
will be something to behold,” the executive concluded.
When asked about expectations of a significant tightening of the oil
market by 2024, one executive noted that the market is already tight,
suggesting spot market prices are not based on true fundamentals.
“I struggle to understand why spot oil prices are as low as they are
today and why there is still backwardation in the forward curve. It
appears to me that the world is very short on supply, with big draws in
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories still
taking place even after a significant increase (and now leveling off) in
North American drilling and completion activity,” the executive
commented, adding that OPEC has “for the first time ever” acknowledged that there is no spare capacity.
Additionally, once China reverses its zero-COVID policy, demand will be
driven up, while more Russian oil will be moved off the market pushing
demand further.
20212, 482, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, fracked?; t9/11; cum 103K 1/17; API: 33-035-01261; no evidence this was fracked; cum 1.014994 million 11/21; production since 2014; note huge jump in production 2018. tell me about the dreaded Bakken decline again; and, Hubbert's peak oil theory? Cum 1.115260 million bbls 10/24; cum 1.154427 million bbls 11/24; pump installed, 12/23; cum 1.180736 million bbls 4/25;
January 19, 2025: recent production --
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2024
30
1826
1798
1344
2817
2441
0
BAKKEN
10-2024
27
1834
1966
1349
2674
2322
0
BAKKEN
9-2024
30
2123
2005
1677
3294
2890
0
BAKKEN
8-2024
31
2254
2240
1764
3474
3056
0
BAKKEN
7-2024
31
2259
2311
1876
3474
2911
152
BAKKEN
6-2024
30
2313
2378
1974
3429
3026
0
BAKKEN
5-2024
31
2479
2591
2153
3577
3159
0
December 13, 2024: production updated. Recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2024
27
1834
1966
1349
2674
2322
0
BAKKEN
9-2024
30
2123
2005
1677
3294
2890
0
BAKKEN
8-2024
31
2254
2240
1764
3474
3056
0
BAKKEN
7-2024
31
2259
2311
1876
3474
2911
152
BAKKEN
6-2024
30
2313
2378
1974
3429
3026
0
BAKKEN
5-2024
31
2479
2591
2153
3577
3159
0
BAKKEN
4-2024
30
2413
2240
2089
3447
3045
0
BAKKEN
3-2024
31
2612
2695
2392
3393
2975
0
Later, 7:19 p.m. CT: see first comment. The file report shows this Three Forks well was fracked / stimulated 9/22/2017; 61 stages with 14.54 million lbs of proppant. FracFocus does not have any data regarding this well.
Original Post
We last checked in on this well back in 2017. It was drilled six years earlier, in 2011, and I was never able to determine if it had been fracked.January 30, 2025: fracked 8/17; 61 stages, 14 million lbs proppant; 234,261 bbls fluid.
At best, as of 2017, it was a mediocre well, reporting cumulative production of around 100,000 bbls. But, wow, holy mackerel, checking tonight, this well has reported more than one million bbls crude oil cumulative. Full production here.
The well:
20212, 482, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, fracked?; t9/11; cum 103K 1/17; API: 33-035-01261; no evidence this was fracked; cum 1.014994 million 11/21; production since 2014; note huge jump in production 2018. tell me about the dreaded Bakken decline again; and, Hubbert's peak oil theory? Cum 1.115260 million bbls 10/24;
