Best Story Of The Day? And Now -- Off The Net For Awhile To Go Biking -- May 14, 2015

From the press release:
LYNNFIELD, MA--

American Power Group Corporation announced that its largest oil field drilling and service company customer who has converted over 50 prime power engines to APG's dual fuel solution is currently operating drilling rigs for four different end customers utilizing APG's Fueled By Flare™ dual fuel solution in the Bakken region of North Dakota.

While the end customers were not disclosed for proprietary reasons, a recent industry survey ranked these four companies among the top 10 oil and gas exploration and production companies in the United States.

Lyle Jensen, CEO of American Power Group, stated, "Over 70% of APG's dual fuel stationary oil rig conversions in North America are operating on conditioned wellhead/flared gas in applications such as drilling, fracking, pumping, air compression and mobile lighting towers.

"The Bakken region of North Dakota is an area facing significant penalties and restrictions associated with the flaring of their wellhead gas. We believe that federal, state, and local emission regulations will only get tougher as it relates to the amount of wellhead/flared gas that can be emitted into the environment. The economic and environmental benefits of converting this previously considered "waste" gas into usable fuel is one of the most compelling environmental case studies of our time and we believe APG's Dual Fuel technology will become a major consumer and sustainability solution for operators in this area."

Mr. Jensen added, "Based on data obtained thus far, our customers estimate a potential aggregate net monthly fuel savings of between $40,000 and $60,000 per drilling rig when utilizing APG's dual fuel solution and conditioned wellhead/flared gas.

As the idling of rigs across the United States appears to be slowing down, drilling service companies as well as their E&P customers are now focusing their efforts on cost reduction and improving operating efficiencies of active drilling rigs which makes our Fueled By Flare™ dual fuel solution the perfect complement to these efforts."

This Is Not An Investment Site; Do Not Make Any Investment Or Financial Decisions Based On What You Read Here; It Is Also Not A Weather Site

Is the Dow really up another 175 points today?

What gives? Maybe this: Reuters is reporting: ECB's Draghi says he will not stop short in money printing.

The European Central Bank will not stop short in rolling out its trillion-euro-plus money printing scheme, its president said on Thursday, playing down fears that quantitative easing could blow price bubbles.

When I was in the military -- ah, the good old days -- our real names were found on official documents, but we had "go-by names" (maybe more on those go-by names later; Velcro was a godsend for many a fighter pilot). It appears Mario Draghi's "go-by name" is Ben.

As in Ben Bernanke. 

By the way, don't forget that China recently announced its own stimulus program: an Apple Watch on every wrist. Okay, part of that last sentence was not entirely accurate, but, yes, Chinese leaders did announce a new round of stimulus.

Apple popped.

The worlds largest company by market cap just got a little bigger. Shares of Apple popped 1% on Thursday after UBS said iPhone sales should continue to smash records. In a new research note, analysts said in the second quarter Apple will sell about 51 million units, that's much more than the consensus Street estimates of 45 million. UBS cited strong demand in China as one of the catalysts behind the gains.

And UBS sees iPhone sales in the June quarter well above the current estimates.

Oil should have been up today on a weakening dollar. But oil was down. Perhaps the dollar strengthened and I missed it. More likely, the "speculators" heard the frackers are coming back to work (there have been three stories in the last three days about EOG saying drillers are ready to go back to work in the shale plays). "Speculators" see more supply coming into an already-over-supplied market.

MDU: breaking up is hard to do. Link here. 

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Re-Posting

I posted this earlier but it was removed by the censors, so I will try again.

Polling data suggests fairly strongly this will be the Democratic Party's PVP ticket in 2016:

• President: Hillary Clinton
• Vice-President: Michelle Obama

Some data points to think about:

• Hillary will win if Jeb is the GOP candidate
• Hillary will have a tough race if anyone other than Jeb is the GOP nominee
• Even in a tough race, Hillary could win under any circumstances -- unless the black vote does not turn out
• Hillary will most assuredly need a huge Black American turnout to win (that's a given)
• An old woman and an old white man ticket won't bring out the black vote
• Michelle simply stumping for Hillary won't bring out the black vote; it's unlikely, in any event that Michelle would stump for Hillary, even if promised a job in the new administration; Hillary has a way of not keeping promises
• A Michelle vice-presidency opens the door for Barack to return as SecState -- yes, it's a huge step down, but he saw how much money the Clintons made doing that
• As SecState, Barack is fresh; Bill Clinton would be in the White House, long in the tooth
• Hillary won't play second fiddle to Michelle on the ticket, so it's the Hillary - P, Michelle - VP ticket or nothing at all
• Hillary-Michelle have a chance to really make history; they would win by a landslide; folks who can't stand Hillary (like my wife) would gladly hold their collective noses and vote for Michelle
• Michelle would be the first VP in a long time that would still be way young enough to run for president in 2020 (by which time Hillary's medical problems will become so obvious she will have to step down -- along with Ms Ginsberg, where they can move into a "memory" unit together) [The closest thing we have to white smoke and a new Pope is when "we" pick a new justice for the Supreme Court.]

I challenge anyone to come up with a "dream ticket" that is more sublime than a Hillary-Michelle ticket. HM: her majesties.

Michelle: be young, be dope, be proud.

For Flat Earthers Like Me: India's Billion-Ton Plan -- May 14, 2015

This is a nice update of what's going on with coal in India.

Remember:

• India is the second most populous nation on earth, and will be #1 a few years from now
• everyone in India wants the American dream (an Apple Watch)

Keep those two data points in mind when reading the coal article at the Wall Street Journal today:

Mr. Modi is taking a gradual approach, centered on what officials call the Billion-Ton Plan: an attempt to double the coal company’s output in five years by stepping up investment and untangling administrative obstacles.

At the same time, he has steered through Parliament a law opening the way for private companies to mine and sell coal, which could eventually end Coal India’s four-decade monopoly on commercial production.

The two-pronged plan typifies an emerging Modi strategy for getting the cumbersome Indian economy to run better: Fix the plumbing first. Worry about building a new house later.

And more:

India’s fast-growing economy runs on coal, which means Coal India’s struggles to meet demand have ripples internationally.

Coal imports have risen rapidly to about 170 million metric tons a year.

As developed countries turn to more environmentally friendly natural gas and as China’s growth slows, analysts predict India will increasingly dominate global coal demand over the next decade. 

Once China sees its growth slowing and India's growth rising, China may ask, "why?" and react accordingly.

The graphics at the linked article are staggering: India's energy -- 65% related to coal.

More:

Summer was fast approaching when Mr. Modi took office a year ago, and with it a surge in electricity demand that annually threatens mass blackouts in India.

Some power plants had only a few days’ coal supply on hand.

At Coal India, the task is mammoth. Technology that long ago revolutionized mining elsewhere is only starting to find a foothold in its over 400 mines.

If It's Thursday, It Must Be The Bakken -- May 14, 2015; Wind Turbine Success Story In North Dakota

Active rigs:

	5/14/2015	05/14/2014	05/14/2013	05/14/2012	05/14/2011
Active Rigs	83	189	190	208	173

RBN Energy: second part of the series on ocean-going vessels switching to LNG.

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Bakken economy: PrairieBiz is reporting:

Slope Electric Cooperative in southwest North Dakota has been awarded $12.5 million in U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development loans to help improve power lines throughout Adams, Bowman, Hettinger and Slope counties.

The loan will help the electric cooperative, based in New England, improve 66 miles of line. The loan also includes $431,600 for smart grid projects.

$12 million / 66 miles = almost $200,000 per mile. 

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Prairie Biz is reporting:

About 10 years ago, Somerville, whose father, Dean, is the founder of Cooperstown-based gear and bearing puller maker Posi Lock Puller Inc., began developing a concept for a 30 kilowatt (kW) wind turbine system that would offer improved efficiency and reliability over other turbines by utilizing an electrical-based platform rather than the traditional mechanical-based platform. Also, given that he was developing the product in rural North Dakota, it needed to be designed to withstand brutally cold temperatures and high winds right out of the box, with no add-ons necessary.

A 30 kW turbine produces enough energy to power about 10 homes and ranks on the large side of small turbines, of which there are only a small number of manufacturers globally. Dakota Turbines initially planned to target farms, ranches and small businesses for its product, which could easily be supported by its turbines’ production capacity. But at the suggestion of one of its distributors, the company soon dialed in to a specific niche -- hog producers.

“It turns out 30 kilowatts is exactly the size needed to power hog barns,” Somerville says. The company hoped to sell four units last year, but by mid-year it had already sold 30 turbines. The average turnkey cost of each unit is about $200,000.

Given the large number of various livestock facilities in the upper Midwest -- Somerville says Iowa alone has about 40,000 hog barns -- the company sees great potential demand for its systems.

Still, Somerville is determined to ramp up at a measured pace in order to ensure quality product. The current facility’s annual production capacity is 100 units, but Dakota Turbines expects to sell 30 turbines again this year as it continues to perfect its process. Eventually though, the company will take its business global, as Posi Lock did.

Somerville says the company has already received interest from Vietnam and the potential exists to produce a version of its system that could operate off the grid, which is appealing for applications throughout Asia and also in Alaska, where remote villages currently rely on diesel generators for power.

Gasoline Demand Edges Up; Natural Gas Fill Rate Exceeds Average But Below Expectations; Delta Refinery Ends Impors From West Africa -- May 14, 2015

Natural gas fill rate (a dynamic link): 111. Hard to tell for sure, but right at 5-year average or slightly below.

From 24/7 Wall Street:

The EIA reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 111 billion cubic feet for the week ending May 1. Analysts expected a storage injection (increase) of around 125 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an increase of around 85 billion cubic feet.

Gasoline demand edges up (a dynamic link). Unless things change drastically, it appears I will be wrong -- gasoline demand won't hit a record this Memorial Day weekend. 

Reuters Africa is reporting that the US Delta refinery on the east coast is no longer importing west African crude oil:

Delta Air Lines Inc's refinery Monroe Energy has stopped importing crude oil from West Africa, the airline's Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said Thursday during a transportation conference that was webcast. The Philadelphia-area refinery instead takes its supply from U.S. and some Canadian sources, "dramatically" lowering its transportation costs.

The refinery, forecast to earn about $80 million in the second quarter, is benefiting fully from the U.S. shale oil boom.

Note to self: find that article in which the EIA said "OPEC won, US frackers blinked."

War of words: Harold Hamm says Saudi's strategy is backfiring. He argues we are closer to seeing US export oil. Won't happen carte blanche in my investing lifetime.

Mainstream media does not mention that the Mideast leaders boycotted President Obama's Mideast summit at Camp David. "Leaders" from the Mideast were low-level Muslims, probably about "equal in rank" to SecState Kerry's limousine driver.

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Nooners

Tesla superchargers could be way more expensive than investors are being led to believe. OMG! That word again: investors. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions or financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  Seeking Alpha is reporting:

Whoa. So the cost of a Supercharger was $150,000 in mid-2013, but by the end of the year, it had rocketed to $400,000! It's like, wow - it's crazy off the hook.

Then I realize that doesn't make any sense. Costs should be declining due to experience and scale, and indeed that seems to have happened in 2014 and 2015. So perhaps the cost has always been three or four hundred grand, and not the cost the company said!

Apple winning in China. Seeking Alpha is reporting:

According to IDC, Apple was the number one seller of smartphones in China in calendar Q1. According to the prevailing view of Apple bears, Apple should be succumbing to the relentless pressure of commodity Android smartphones. Why hasn't this happened? Because flooding the market with low quality "white box" smartphones has hurt the Android brand.

GM wins; union loses. Reuters is reporting:

A U.S. appeals court on Thursday upheld the dismissal of a lawsuit by the United Auto Workers union claiming that General Motors Co was required to pay $450 million to cover medical benefits for an affiliate's retirees.

Investment articles at Seeking Alpha for oil and gas investors (see disclaimer above -- yes, it's embedded above):

• Part I
• Part II

It looks like the Amtrak engineer needs more time to come up with a plausible story of what he was doing. Has no recollection of what happened. 

Thursday, May 14, 2015; 2Q15 GDP Forecast Ticks Down; Unemployment Numbers Tick Down

Jobs: I have to find a link yet, but I believe unemployment claims plummeted -- down to 264,000, at the low, low end of what what was forecast. Okay, here's a link over at ABC News.

Unemployment claims fall to 15-year low. It looks like the downturn in the oil and gas industry had not effect on unemployment numbers. Fascinating. The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits ticked lower last week, pushing down the four-week average of applications to its lowest level since April 2000.

Weekly applications fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 last week. That is just above a 15-year low reached three weeks ago. The average, a less volatile figure, dropped 7,750 to 271,750, the lowest in 15 years.

The AP has almost the identical story. Both stories also include this little bit of fanciful reporting:

The economy likely shrank in the first three months of the year. Economists blame a strong dollar, low oil prices that triggered cutbacks at oil and gas companies, and harsh winter weather that discouraged spending. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports overseas more expensive, restraining sales.

Most analysts predict the economy is expanding in the April-June quarter, though the bounce-back hasn't been as strong as many had hoped.

GDPNow's latest forecast released May 13, 2015:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on May 13, down slightly from 0.8 percent on May 5. The nowcast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent following this morning's retail sales report.

Market: DOW futures are up over a 100 points.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Great story on coal in India in today's Wall Street Journal. Link here.