Random Update Of Three Huge Whiting Wells -- March 10, 2015; EIA STEO

Three huge Whiting wells still on confidential list have been updated.

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EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Adam Sieminski issued the following comments on EIA’s March 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released on Tuesday, March 10, 2015:

Crude Oil:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, which are already at the highest level since 1930, are expected to continue growing over the next two months.

The increase in oil inventories is expected to moderate as refineries ramp up their processing of crude oil into petroleum products in the second quarter and domestic oil production slows.

U.S. crude oil storage capacity is now 62% full compared with 48% a year ago.”

Gasoline: 

Even with the recent increases in gasoline prices, the average U.S. household is still expected to save $710 in gasoline costs this year compared with what was paid at the pump during 2014.

Gasoline prices have recently been driven higher by increasing crude oil costs as well as several unplanned refinery outages.

Winter Fuels Outlook:

Despite frigid temperatures over the past month in the eastern half of the country, the average household that uses heating oil as its primary space heating fuel is expected to spend 24% less on heating costs this winter compared with last winter, while homes using propane for heating are expected to spend 18% less and 32% less in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas prices have remained low despite cold weather during February and early March, as domestic production growth remains strong.

Recent data shows record high U.S. natural gas production in December, and EIA increased the forecast for annual production growth by about 1 billion cubic feet per day for this year and in 2016.

Electricity:

Early indications are that the bitter cold experienced in the eastern United States last month, which led to high levels of electricity use for space heating, may have led monthly power generation to be above the level of any previous February.

Renewables:

The total amount of wind, solar, and other renewables used for electricity and heat generation is expected to grow by 2.9% this year.

Coal:

The effect of U.S. coal-fired power plant retirements and lower natural gas prices is reflected in a forecast for coal consumption in the electric power sector during 2015 that is 2.2% below the 2014 level.

The full STEO can be downloaded at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

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And They Say Texans Love Guns

Tweeting now:  Utah lawmakers vote to become only state to allow firing squad if lethal drugs not available for executions - @AP.

Chevron To Increase Asset Sales By 50% -- March 10, 2015; Emerald Oil Meets Earnings Expectations

Reporting tomorrow:
Crescent Point Energy, forecast 21 cents; before market open;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Emerald Oil reports earnings:

Emerald Oil Inc. (EOX) on Tuesday reported a loss of $62.2 million in its fourth quarter.
On a per-share basis, the Denver-based company said it had a loss of 92 cents. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to 3 cents per share.

The results met Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was also for earnings of 3 cents per share.

The independent oil and gas company posted revenue of $29.8 million in the period, which topped Street forecasts. Five analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $25.2 million.

From SeekingAlpha:

• Chevron will increase asset sales by 50% to $15B and curtail new investment for the next two years, adjustments that are necessary to address near-term market conditions, Chairman and CEO John Watson says during an analyst presentation.
• Capital spending will decline through the period as construction of mega-projects such as the $54B Gorgon gas export development in Australia winds down, Watson says.
• CVX made 35 oil and gas discoveries and added 1.4B boe to its portfolio during 2014 - “an excellent year for our exploration program around the world" - Vice Chairman George Kirkland says.
• Watson also says CVX has seen interest among prospective buyers for the company's 54K bbl/day Kapolei refinery in Hawaii.
• Earlier: Chevron says positioned for 20% production growth to 2017

Kemp over at Reuters / Rigzone: OPEC winning its battle with the US --

U.S. shale producers are falling behind in the Red Queen’s Race as the downturn in drilling means that new oil production is failing to offset falling output from existing wells.

The famous race is named after the scene from Lewis Carroll’s novel “Through the Looking-Glass,” in which the Red Queen warns Alice: “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run twice as fast.”

The race is a metaphor for the relationship between increased oil production from newly drilled wells on the one hand and declining output from old wells on the other.

The net result is that the downturn in drilling is threatening to cut output for the first time since the start of the shale revolution.

Other forms of oil production, notably from offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to increase in the next few months. But in the shale sector, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has won its battle with U.S. shale producers and forced output growth to a standstill.

A Pyrrhic victory. 

But one has to put this in perspective. In 1973 - 1974, the outcome was just the opposite. An OPEC oil embargo quadrupled the price of oil in less than a year, from $3/bbl to $12/bbl. Ask the average American which he/she would prefer.

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Gotcha!

The AP is reporting -- a sting in Williston caught ten men -- two with human trafficking, and eight soliciting.

Cool.

Forty-two-year-old Rasheed Abdul Rahim is probably not a native Willistonite. Don't know about 44-year-old Charles David Norton. I don't know either of them; they must have graduated from high school after I left Williston.

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Think Of The Possibilities

Macrumors is reporting:

Women's Wear Daily has shared some more information on the locations where we will see the $10,000+ Apple Watch Edition and other versions of the Apple Watch shown off around the world. Described as "shop-in-shops" in high-visibility locations, each of Apple's pop up stores will ensure customers looking to make major purchases will get the best service possible.

At Selfridges, the Apple Watch will be displayed in the aptly named Wonder Room, which houses high-end jewelry and watches in a brightly lit room decked out with treasure-filled glass cases. At Galeries Lafayette, the Apple Watch will be displayed among European brands on the first floor of the facility, and at the Isetan Department Store in Shinjuku, Tokyo, the Apple Watch will be displayed on the ground floor.

Other speciality fashion stores will also sell select Apple Watch models, including Colette in Paris, where the Apple Watch had its fashion world debut

, Dover Street Market in London and Tokyo, Maxfield in Los Angeles, The Corner in Berlin, and Lane Crawford in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu. All of these are fashion-oriented upscale stores.

Heidi Ho-Ho-Ho, Oasis Has 26 Wells Coming Off Confidential List Wednesday, That St Croix Madison Well Was Dry -- March 10, 2015; Enerplus With Four "Owlish" Permits

29075, dry, St Croix Operating, Preskey 28-3, Wildcat, a Madison well, 28-158-82; this is St Croix's only permit / well in North Dakota. This well was just southwest and outside of the Glenburn oil field; the well was located about 14 miles north of Minot.

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Global Warming Record

Ice Age Now is reporting: Portland, Maine – Coldest February on record. Not just one day, but the entire month.

By the way:

Concord, New Hampshire, barely missed its 1934 record by 2/10ths of a degree. Don’t forget that our government toldl us that 2/100ths of a degree made last year into the hottest year on record.

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The Bakken

Active rigs:

	3/10/2015	03/10/2014	03/10/2013	03/10/2012	03/10/2011
Active Rigs	113	191	187	206	172

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Seven (7) new permits --

• Operators: Enerplus (4), BR (2), Enduro
• Fields: McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Elidah (McKenzie), Newburg (Bottineau)
• Comments: I believe these are the first Enerplus permits in North Dakota this calendar year; Enerplus' four "owlish" permits in McGregory Buttes (Burrowing - #30863; Screech - #30864; Snowy - #30865; and, Barn - #30866)

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:

• 25248, 1,926, Oasis, John Federal 5201 41-12B, Camp, t11/14; cum 70K 1/15;
• 26188, 86, Oasis, Manhattan 5792 11-2 2T, Cottonwood, 36 stages; 3 million lbs, t11/14; cum 5K 1/15;
• 26931, 242, Oasis, Manhattan 5792 11-2 3B, Cottonwood, t9/14; cum 28K 1/15;
• 26997, 437, Oasis, Ross 5603 43-10 3T, Bull Butte, t10/14; cum 20K 1/15;
• 26999, 734, Oasis, Ross 5603 43-10 4B, Bull Butte, t9/14; cum 13K 1/15;
• 27215, drl, Oasis, Chalmers 5301 44-24 2T, Baker, no production data,
• 27530, 178, Oasis, Delta 6093 14-15 11B, Gros Ventre, t9/14; cum 24K 1/15;
• 27718, 57, Oasis, Shepherd 5501 12-5 3B, Missouri Ridge, 32 stages; 4 million lbs sand/ceramic; t12/14; cum 23K 1/15;
• 27719, 934, Oasis, Shepherd 5501 12-5 2B, Missouri Ridge, t12/14; cum 13K 1/15;
• 27729, 523, Oasis, Holmes 5501 12-5 2B, Tyrone, unusual production profile, t11/14; cum 23K 1/15;
• 27730, 1,867, Oasis, Holmes 5501 12-5 4B, Tyrone, t12/14; cum 31K 1/15;
• 27738, drl, Oasis, Montague 5601 41-34 7B, Cow Creek, no production data,
• 27762, 529, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 3T, Siverston, t10/14; cum 97K 1/15;
• 27817, 1,170, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 21-5 3T, Missouri Ridge, t11/14; cum 19K 1/15;
• 27818, 1,215, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 21-5 4T, Missouri Ridge, t11/14; cum 31K 1/15;
• 27959, drl, Cornerstone, Tafelmeyer MA-3427-6490, Customs, no production yet,
• 27975, 1,722, Oasis, White 5198 13-6 12B, Siverston, t10/14; cum 136K 1/15;
• 27976, 958, Oasis, White 5198 13-6 13T3, Siverston, t10/14 cum 15K 1/15;
• 28048, drl, Oasis, Harbour 5501 14-5 2T, Tyrone, no production data,
• 28070, 1,458, Oasis, Helling Trust Federal 5494-22 7B, Alkali Creek, t2/15; cum 6K 1/15;
• 28146, 159, Oasis, Delta 6093 14-15 9B, Gros Ventre, t9/14; cum 33K 1/15;
• 28443, 962, Oasis, Ruud 5493 42-23 3T, Robinson Lake, unusual production profile, t11/4; cum 13K 1/15;
• 28444, 527, Oasis, Ruud 5493 42-23 2T2, Robinson Lake, unusual production profile, t11/14; cum 26K 1/15;
• 28445, 527, Oasis, Rudd 5493 42-23B, Robinson Lake, t11/14; cum 64K 1/15;
• 28468, drl, Hess, EN-Rehak-155-93-0718H-7, Alger, no production data,
• 28570, drl, Gadeco, Alexander 26-35 6H, Epping, no production data,
• 28601, 328, Oasis, Chalmers Wade Federal 5301 44-24 12 TXR, Baker, t1/15; cum 19K 1/15;
• 28663, drl, MRO, Kary 11-17H, Murphy Creek, no production data,
• 28686, drl, Oasis, Ruud 5493 43-23 7T3, Robinson Lake, no production data,
• 28764, 421, Oasis, Steven Van Verkom 5993 44-24T, Cottonwood, t10/14; cum 39K 1/15;
• 28785, drl, CLR, Bratlien 5-26H, Sadler, no production data,
• 29064, 454, Hess, BW-Heidi Ho-149-99-3526H-2, Juniper, t1/15; cum 14K 1/15;
• 29233, drl, Statoil, Smith Farm 23-14 7H, Cow Creek, no production data,

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Four (4) producing wells completed:

• 26595, 859, QEP, Fed 3-34-35H-152-92, ICO, Big Bend, t2/15; cum --
• 26596, 1,778, QEP, Fed 7-34-35H-152-92, ICO, Van Hook, t2/15; cum --
• 26597, 922, QEP, Fed 5-34-35H-152-92, ICO, Van Hook, t2/15; cum --
• 29125, 113, Cornerstone, Bair Farm B-3526-6491, Flaxton, t3/15; cum --

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27762, see below, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 3T, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	23599	2488
12-2014	26974	3608
11-2014	22755	7566
10-2014	23066	13648

27975, see below, Oasis, White 5198 13-6 12B, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	30218	2703
12-2014	35679	8400
11-2014	33255	0
10-2014	33477	0
9-2014	3422	362

28444, see below, Oasis, Ruud 5493 42-23 2T2, Robinson Lake, producing, unusual production profile:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	164	0
12-2014	4625	138
11-2014	20912	0

Fidelity With A Huge Well; Halcon With A Huge Well But Unusual Production Profile; Only Two (2) New Permits -- March 9, 2015

NOTE: this was posted yesterday. I have no idea why "Blogger" moved it to this location in the blog. This happens occasionally when a posting shows up completely out of order. 

Active rigs:

	3/9/2015	03/09/2014	03/09/2013	03/09/2012	03/09/2011
Active Rigs	113	191	187	206	172

RBN Energy: refining margins boom as crude inventory hits the roof.

U.S. crude stocks are at their highest level in over 30 years and the contango market pricing structure continues to encourage increases in the stockpile. No one knows exactly how much storage space remains. The surplus is keeping U.S. crude prices low compared to international rivals but petroleum product prices (gasoline and diesel) are climbing higher, having bounced back from recent lows. Refining margins are sky high as bad weather and outages hamper operations. But as we describe today, the crude surplus remains a dark cloud on the horizon.

According to the Energy Information Administration the nation is officially awash with crude supplies – stocks are up by 62 MMBbl since January 1, 2015, to 444 million bbls at the end of February – highest ever (since EIA started the tally in 1982 – 33 years ago). About 10 million bls of crude was added to inventory between February 20, 2015, and February 27, 2015. The chart in Figure #1 at the link shows total U.S. crude stocks since July 2014 (blue line – flying towards the moon) as well as the 5-year average (red line) and the 5-year range (darker gray area).

The chart shows current levels 25% above the 5-year average and well outside the normal range for this time of year. About half of the inventory is located in the Gulf Coast region (220 MMBbl) and another 33 percent in the Midwest – the two principal refining regions. Depending on the amount of crude that U.S. refineries process (it varied seasonally between 15 and 16 million bopd last year) current crude stocks are enough to supply refineries for between 27 and 30 days – about a month. All of these “commercial” supplies are on top of the 690 MMBbl Federally mandated Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Wells coming off the confidential list will be updated later; I've been out all day and still getting caught up.

Only three (3) new permits --

• Operators: EOG, Enduro, XTO 
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Little Deep Creek (Renville), Midway (Williams)
• Comments: pretty dismal

One (1) producing well completed:

• 29096, 75, Cornerstone, Huff MC-35-6390, one section, a Madison well, t2/15; cum 1K 1/15;

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 23695, 727, Fidelity, Herauf 2-11H, Zenith, Three Forks, t10/14; cum 86K 1/15;
• 24451, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 17-20-158N-100W, Winner, small production,  
• 25856, drl, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 7H, Banks, no production data,
• 26865, 1,604, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-33C-28-8H, McGregory Buttes, unusual production profile, t9/14; cum 64K 1/15;
• 29008, drl, XTO, David Federal 21X-20F, Lost Bridge,
• 29075, dry, St Croix Operating, Preskey 28-3, Wildcat, 28-158-82; this is St Croix's only permit / well in North Dakota.
• 29116, drl, XTO, Frisinger 34X-8H, Hofflund, no production data,

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23695, see above, Fidelity, Herauf 2-11H, Zenith, Three Forks:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	14486	11166
12-2014	21688	14101
11-2014	11306	6803
10-2014	20929	6591
9-2014	17014	0

26865, see below, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-33C-28-8H, McGregory Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	10143	11544
12-2014	89	123
11-2014	5478	3391
10-2014	25903	18011
9-2014	21863	24396

First 90-Days Production Of Whiting Sanish Wells; Early-Mid 2014 -- March 10, 2015

From my data base; there may be errors. I sorted the Whiting Sanish wells, starting with the ones at the top (the oldest) from 2014, to make sure they had 90 days worth of production. These are all Whiting wells, the test days, followed by production for the first three months in bbls per month. Most were full 30- / 31-day months but not in all cases. 

28305, 1,441, t9/14; 22743, 9693, 7408,
28222, 1,434, t9/14; 22508, 11922, 4789,
28221, 3,347, t8/14; 41122, 24675, 13754,
28129, 1,286, t7/14; 13879, 8900, 5883,
28120, PNC,
28119, PNC,
28118, PNC,
28036, 713, t8/14; 18238, 14477, 9446,
28035, 1,199, t8/14; 22108, 15647, 15000,
27843, 600, t7/14; 6457, 7280, 6992,
27842, 327, t8/14; 7211, 9183, 7740,
27794, 524, t6/14; 8066, 8223, 7458,
27793, 885, t6/14; 15337, 8910, 7911,
27684, 1,596, t5/14; 20324, 14491, 9956,
27676, 1,070, t5/14; 15002, 9019, 10270,
27670, 897, t5/14; 6615, 7651, 6694,
27656, 1,248, t5/14; 16501, 13526, 9056,
27617, 1,466, t4/14; 12917, 7218, 3786,
27358, 1,821, t8/14; 6308, 8677, 5469 (only 18 days),
27525, 941, t3/14; 15104, 5682 (only 22 days), 9401,

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Global Warming

Climate Change

Ice Age Now

Some are calling these the "Kennedy-Bergs."

The historic winter of 2015 has left giant chunks of ice on the Cape Cod National Seashore.

This appears to be Mother Nature's way of bringing snow to the Kennedys -- the patriarchs of the family have voiced concern over the years that their grandchildren would never see snow again. I guess Mother Nature wanted to make sure the Kennedy kids saw snow.

By the way, this story caught my interest more than others when I saw Wellfleet mentioned. When we first visited Boston, visiting Cape Cod was about the last thing I wanted to do. Over time, Cape Cod became my favorite destination. My enthusiasm for Cape Cod began after reading a biography of Edmund Wilson. After that I was hooked.

I do miss New England, particularly Cape Code and Cape Ann. If money were not an issue, I would have a home on Cape Cod, perhaps Provincetown.

Tuesday -- March 10, 2015

Active rigs:

	3/10/2015	03/10/2014	03/10/2013	03/10/2012	03/10/2011
Active Rigs	114	191	187	206	172

RBN Energy: optimizing New England natural gas pipeline capacity.

Does it make sense to build natural gas pipeline capacity that will only be used a few weeks a year?

That’s a question that continues to spark debate in New England, where the existing pipeline network is sufficient most of the year but unable to supply the region’s growing number of gas-fired power plants during the coldest winter days. What’s the answer? Building gas pipeline capacity that will remain largely unused? Relying on oil and LNG as a permanent gas-supply backup for power generators? Or maybe building pipeline capacity to provide not only peak, wintertime service to generators but off-peak service to LNG exporters? Today, we continue our look at a vexing dilemma with major implications for Marcellus gas producers.

Much like Texas, New England considers itself as a unique part of the U.S., with its own food (lobster, chowder, baked beans), sports quirks (singing Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline” in the middle of the eighth inning at Fenway), and an affinity for Subarus, sailboats and Sam Adams beer. As far as the energy world is concerned, though, what sets New England apart is a growing desire for natural gas (as a replacement for coal), coupled with a gas pipeline network that many say is no longer up to snuff. As we said in Episode 1, the region’s much-discussed pipeline capacity shortfalls have been largely mitigated this winter because power generators—encouraged by low oil prices and incentives (from ISO New England, the operator of the electric grid) to lock in backup supplies of oil and LNG—have been ready, willing and able to switch their dual-fuel power plants away from piped-in gas and onto oil and LNG-sourced gas if market conditions warrant. Still, many say, wouldn’t it be better for New England to have the gas pipeline capacity it needs to meet its peak winter needs?

After all, vast volumes of inexpensive Marcellus gas are close at hand in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Less blogging: the granddaughters have this week off -- spring break. I will not be blogging much during the day, but will try to catch up in the evening. I will not get to all e-mails in a timely manner.

Mood: my feelings about the Bakken wax and wane, more optimistic / less optimistic due to the slump in the price of oil, so my postings/opinions may seem schizoid.

Errors: even in the best of times, I make typographical and factual errors. When I have less time to blog, I will make even more typographical and factual errors. I often blog on the run, and only later look for errors. I correct them when I find them. If something seems wrong on the blog, it probably is wrong. If anything I post is important to you, go to the source. I generally link to the source. If I foreg to link, a google search will usually find the source. Do not trust this site; there are typographical and factual errors, but never on purpose. 

Apple: Apple fans have already seen the Apple Watch presentation from yesterday. For non-Apple fans who have not seen this presentation, I heartily recommend it. The presentation is optimized to play on the Safari browser and may not work well on other browsers. It's a long, long presentation, but if it works right on your browser you can easily skip to the sections you want to review. The engineering of the "new" MacBook is absolutely incredible. I play the video in the background while doing other internet tasks.