Grapevine Lake, Texas -- Summer, 2022

Isn't this a great photo?

We had another record-setting high temperature day here in DFW, 109°F, today. The Texas grid, ERCOT, easily held. There were no requests by the ERCOT authorities for folks to conserve electricity. 

I spent almost all day in the pool. Crystal clear water and quite cool. 

Inflation, Again -- July 19, 2022

Updates

July 20, 2022: housing market in free fall. Or not.

Original Post 

Whenever I see stories about high inflation here in the states, I keep coming back to this graph:

I was reminded of that when I came across this today (link: https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1549346241737379843):

I now follow Lance Roberts.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May-Over-April, 2022

Folks who think they "know" the Bakken may want to spend some time on this one.

I would be curious if anyone can explain this.

Assuming I did all the math correctly and that's a huge assumption, but look at this:

The number of wells offline for operational reasons:

• May, 2022: 2,944
• April, 2022: 2,403
• so, in May, month-over-month, there was an increase of 541 wells taken off line
• those 541 wells represents an INCREASE of wells taken off line by almost 25%
• got that? 25% more wells were off line in May than in April. Twenty-five percent.

The number of producing wells:

• May, 2022: 16,953
• April, 2022: 16,896
• in other words, month-over-month, May-over-April, the number of producing wells increased by 57
• as a percentage, that was an increase of 0.3%. Not 30%. Not 3%. Not even one percent, but a third of one percent.

Now, take a look at this:

• oil production, month-over-month, May-over-April increased by 17%. Seventeen percent.
• natural gas production, month-over-month, May-over April increased by 14%. Fourteen percent.

Anyone want to hazard a guess. 

I'll discuss it later.

It's not rocket science. Again, assuming I did the math correctly.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May - April, 2022

Most recent "dashboard" for the Bakken:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf

Production change, month-over-month:

Oil:

• April, 2022: 905,357bbls / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 1,058,721
• delta, bopd: 153,364
  
• delta, percent: up 17%
  
• revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls
  

Gas production and capture:

• April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
• delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 14%

Now compare that data with wells offline for operational reasons for the past three months:

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

May, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

Update Of Wells Offline For Operational Reasons -- July 19, 2022

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 2,448
• DUCS: 496
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
• producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

• inactive: 1,909
• DUCS: 494
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
• producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

• inactive: 1,928
• DUCS: 451
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
• producing: 16,746

February, 2022:

• inactive: 1,872
• DUCS: 463
• total off line for operational reasons: 2,335
• producing: 16,746

Director's Cut Posted -- May, 2022, Data

Director's Cuts are tracked here. 

May, 2022, data posted here.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here.

Oil:

• April, 2022: 905,357 bbls / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 1,058,721 bbls / day (preliminary)
• delta, bopd: 153,364
  
• delta, percent: up 17%
  
• revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls
  

Crude oil price:

• today: $100.50
• May, 2022: $105.77
  
• April, 2022: $100.16

Gas production:

• April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  
• May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
• delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  
• delta, percent: up 14%
  

Rigs and wells:

• rigs:
• today: 42 (includes at least one SWD rig)
  
• June: 42
  
• May: 40
• April: 38
• permitted:
• June: 77
• May: 68
• April: 55
• completed:
• June: 27 (preliminary)
• May: 53 (revised)
• April: 33  (said to be preliminary but probably final)
• inactive:
• May: 2,448
  
• April: 1,909
• DUCs
• May: 496
• April: 494
• producing:
• May: 16,953
  
• April: 16,896
• May to April: 0.3% increase in number of producing wells.
  

DUC Report -- July 19, 2022

A reader sent me the recent data for DUCs from all major oil and gas plays in the US. I only post the Bakken data.

Bakken DUCs: from a reader, most recent data, down below.

The reader noted that in the big scheme of things, there were relatively few completions.

I replied: I didn’t have the numbers but I was suspecting that. I don’t think the refiners have any spare capacity.

The reader's reply:

Yes, and they're getting all the oil they need from the SPR...why work for what comes from the govt without any effort?

Something i meant to add as a comment; last week's Petroleum Status Report summary said "U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year." 

I knew that couldn't be right, so i did the math and found crude inventories were almost 8% below the 5 year average. I was surprised they had that wrong; I had assumed those summaries were somehow automated. 

I'll be watching that tomorrow, to see if they fix it..

	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	570
Jan-14	178	143	605
Feb-14	210	158	657
Mar-14	224	218	663
Apr-14	217	207	673
May-14	226	208	691
Jun-14	236	225	702
Jul-14	250	243	709
Aug-14	226	207	728
Sep-14	256	232	752
Oct-14	186	243	695
Nov-14	209	202	702
Dec-14	224	194	732
Jan-15	197	193	736
Feb-15	230	151	815
Mar-15	182	170	827
Apr-15	142	127	842
May-15	124	139	827
Jun-15	110	135	802
Jul-15	102	124	780
Aug-15	111	101	790
Sep-15	99	92	797
Oct-15	118	84	831
Nov-15	100	89	842
Dec-15	98	78	862
Jan-16	71	80	853
Feb-16	61	41	873
Mar-16	68	45	896
Apr-16	43	39	900
May-16	46	59	887
Jun-16	42	54	875
Jul-16	45	56	864
Aug-16	53	82	835
Sep-16	49	66	818
Oct-16	59	85	792
Nov-16	61	86	767
Dec-16	53	49	771
Jan-17	62	52	781
Feb-17	51	58	774
Mar-17	78	71	781
Apr-17	78	104	755
May-17	94	82	767
Jun-17	76	105	738
Jul-17	95	103	730
Aug-17	99	110	719
Sep-17	98	97	720
Oct-17	104	110	714
Nov-17	93	86	721
Dec-17	77	65	733
Jan-18	107	72	768
Feb-18	74	74	768
Mar-18	95	90	773
Apr-18	109	110	772
May-18	124	131	765
Jun-18	108	118	755
Jul-18	134	155	734
Aug-18	108	138	704
Sep-18	108	122	690
Oct-18	120	118	692
Nov-18	110	99	703
Dec-18	108	70	741
Jan-19	120	71	790
Feb-19	108	56	842
Mar-19	111	110	843
Apr-19	118	112	849
May-19	127	127	849
Jun-19	118	149	818
Jul-19	122	122	818
Aug-19	122	144	796
Sep-19	110	88	818
Oct-19	116	108	826
Nov-19	96	88	834
Dec-19	94	86	842
Jan-20	99	98	843
Feb-20	94	100	837
Mar-20	94	108	823
Apr-20	69	33	859
May-20	33	14	878
Jun-20	18	11	885
Jul-20	18	22	881
Aug-20	19	27	873
Sep-20	18	51	840
Oct-20	19	41	818
Nov-20	20	31	807
Dec-20	20	50	777
Jan-21	20	41	756
Feb-21	19	24	751
Mar-21	25	45	731
Apr-21	27	46	712
May-21	29	62	679
Jun-21	31	33	677
Jul-21	32	63	646
Aug-21	39	71	614
Sep-21	42	81	575
Oct-21	43	82	536
Nov-21	46	78	504
Dec-21	52	75	481
Jan-22	53	75	459
Feb-22	64	75	448
Mar-22	66	76	438
Apr-22	58	69	427
May-22	74	76	425
Jun-22	76	77	424