Tuesday, July 19, 2022

WB, BRK, And OXY -- July 19, 2022

 Walking back from the pool today, I had this thought.

Take a look at the Buffett portfolio. Without question, this is a most boring, incredibly ugly-looking portfolio of any I've seen. Sure, it has 52 stocks but only two or three will move the needle. 

Then look at this, a "fantasy" energy ETF

Right now, at this point in time, what portfolio would you rather have, the Buffett portfolio or the fantasy energy ETF?

Previously posted:

My hunch: Buffett thinks about this every waking moment and in his dreams:

  • in round numbers, he owns 20% of OXY, and possibly more if one throws in warrants, etc; and,
  • despite owning all that OXY, it still represents only 2.8% of his total portfolio (not including BRK shares)
  • in other words, for all the OXY he has bought and all the ink spilled on his obsession with OXY, it doesn't amount to a heck of a lot in the big scheme of things (yet);
  • he could sell forty of his "non-exciting" tickers and buy all of OXY at a huge discount right now

More than a hunch:

  • next Monday morning we're going to read in the morning paper that Warren Buffett has bought OXY
  • for all the reasons above
  • in addition, this is his last "hurrah" -- he's nearing the end of his life and he wants to do one more big deal;
  •  energy is going to be the "story" of the 21st century
  • like the railroads, there's only a handful of majors -- practically monopolies
  • Vicki Hollub has been an outstanding CEO and is ready to do another big deal also
  • Warren is a great guy to work for; he owns the company but allows the company to be pretty autonomous; certainly Buffett is not going ot personally run OXY
  • he and Ms Hollub certainly have a great relationship

So, that's what I was thinking. I wouldn't have posted that, but when I got home I checked my twitter feed and lo and behold, link here:


From the linked article:
July 19, 2022: BRK purchased another 1.94 million shares of OXY giving the company (BRK) an $11.4 billion stake and putting it nearer a threshold where it could record some of the oil company's earnings with its own.

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