Re-posting:
LNG:
Link here for today's news.
Bolt-on acquisition:
On-going operations (2022):
Shareholder returns:
Disclaimer: this is not an
investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Tine to clear out the in-box: very few links, just quick notes --
Goldman boosts 3Q22 Brent ol forecast to $140 from $125. That would push WTI to $135. It's been my impression GS has been "behind" on its forecasts for quite some time now.
Over the last 20 years world governments have spent north of $5 trillion on "green" energy. That has taken fossil fuels share of primary energy from 86% to 84% and world oil consumption increased from 77 million barrels per day to 100 million barrels per day. Do you get it?
CATL: the Chinese company that dominates the EV battery industry.
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Back to the Bakken
NOG: bolt-on acquisition.
Willston Energy Chaser: link here.
Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative: look at this -- this helps explain why these stories are important.
Rates won’t be going up for Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative customers as a result of the back-to-back blizzards in April. You can thank the new cryptocurrency plant located in northwestern North Dakota for that, according to reports heard at MWEC’s annual meeting Thursday night.
North Dakota's Miss America 2018: graduates from Harvard.
WTI: just short of $120.
Active rigs in North Dakota: 41 or thereabouts.
Slawson is getting active again. A reader noted that Slawson has two rigs in the North Dakota Bakken now.
Three new permits, #39002 - #39004, inclusive:
Twenty-one permits renewed:
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The Book Page
My goal is to read one new book each week.
My third week, my third book.
The fourth book has been ordered from Amazon and will arrive tomorrow. It's about the cardiovascular system as described by the ancient Greeks, c. 2022.
Disclaimer: this is not an
investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
The US equity market was insane today.
I mean, for heaven's sake, even ELMS was up today and earlier this week it was reported that company will run out of cash this month if it can't find new suckers investors gamblers.
When you look at the market today, concentrating on oil, UNP, and GM, and ignore the tech and meme-stocks, one can only come to the following conclusions:
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Apartment Life
Our rent went up significantly this past month, but it's a 15-month lease, and I have no concerns, at least not yet.
However, the silver lining in this cloud: a lot of twenty-somethings living on the margin won't be able to afford the rent and will move out. Taking their attitudes with them.
To be honest, and I always am, I have no idea how some of these twenty-somethings were able to afford this apartment complex before the increase in rent.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Refineries: Big Oil releases a shot across the bow -- threatens to shut down a Houston refinery a year earlier than planned. LOL. No link. It's too precious to link.
LNG:
Oil:
Oil:
Market:
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The Book Page
Goal: reading one new book each week
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Oil
This is fascinating.
GS says oil will be trading at $140 by the end of the summer.
For now, traders have drawn the greed / fear line at $120
Okay, a bit of hyperbole, but ...
... link here.
I am convinced millennials did not take science or math after eighth grade ... but their parents left them a lot of money which will now be used to buy gasoline. LOL.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Disruptive:
Polestar: link here. And, here.
That's an SUV? Let's take another look. Here it is. Barron's got it wrong; The Verge got it right:
There are three big stories today:
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
******************************
Target
I think I've blogged about this no less than three times in the past six months. Target logistics is pathetic. Link to The WSJ.
It appears their folks were good at looking in the rear view mirror but not good at looking at "the future."
Target Corp. warned profits would drop because it needs to cancel orders or offer discounts to clear out unwanted goods, the latest sign of the sudden mismatch between supply and demand inside America’s stores.
Big retailers benefited over the past two years from the pandemic rush to buy patio furniture, laptops and home décor, as shoppers were buoyed by savings and government stimulus checks. Now many of those same stores are grappling with a swift reversal of buying behavior with consumers spending less on goods in favor of services and necessities such as food and fuel.
Two weeks after reporting lower-than-expected profits, Target said Tuesday it will further reduce some of its profit estimates for the year because it will more quickly unload excess inventory in the current quarter. Target said last month inventory rose 43% in the most recent quarter as demand for outdoor furniture, small appliances and some electronics declined faster than expected and supply-chain snarls delayed the arrival of many goods past the ideal selling window.
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Was He Banned?
Link here but I could find no supporting source. Having said that, his trip has been delayed at least until July. By July it will no longer matter. On the other hand, the visit may be tied to some huge diplomatic breath-through between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
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The Price of Gasoline
There are three big stories today:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
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Back to the Bakken
Far Side: link here.
WTI: $118.50
Active rigs in North Dakota: 39 or thereabouts
Tuesday, June 7, 2022: 8 for the month, 145 for the quarter, 305 for the year
RBN Energy: price skyrockets as supply/demand uncertainty looms for the lightest NGL.
That crazy little ethane molecule is at it again. Yesterday the price blasted to 67.875 c/gal, a level last seen on January 17, 2012. Petchem cracker margins are low. Production is up, but inventories are down. A big driver of the bedlam is the price of natural gas, trading in the $7-$9/MMBtu range for the past month. But as usual with ethane, there’s a lot more happening below the surface — including high domestic demand, growing export volumes, and significant developments in downstream petrochemical markets — all shaking things up. Looking ahead, uncertainty looms, with more export capacity, ever-changing ethane rejection economics, and uneven production growth. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll leap back into the ethane market to see what’s been going on, and where ethane is headed over the next few years.
The ethane market is in turmoil. Ethane prices are up, almost double since January and the highest in 10 years. Higher natural gas prices — also up 2x since January — are a primary driver; petchems have to pay enough for their ethane feedstock to keep their supply from being rejected and sold as natural gas. But the margin for running ethane through a steam cracker to make ethylene is down hard, from 31 c/lb of ethylene produced last year to only 11 c/lb over the past month. That’s not only low from an absolute perspective, but it is also low relative to other feedstocks, with propane and butane enjoying higher margins for much of the past month. You might think that would mean reduced ethane demand from the petchems, but so far it is just the opposite. Steam cracker demand is at record highs.
Other strange things are happening too. According to EIA’s most recent stats, ethane production soared to an all-time high of 2.5 MMb/d in March, up 11% in just one month. Maybe that’s an outlier, but still, ethane production is up 22% over January 2020, just before the COVID meltdown. Even with production up, however, ethane inventories are low, at only 60% of the inventory max back in October 2020 and the lowest level for March since 2016, when there were far fewer ethane-only steam crackers online. More demand should signal a need for more inventories, but that’s not what we are seeing.
