Idle Chatter -- January 5, 2018

I've been updating production data for wells back from 2015. That dreaded Bakken decline rate? Machts nicht. I think folks are going to be surprised by how well Bakken wells do in general over time.

Out of curiosity, I decided to go back to 2006 when the Bakken was still not "a thing" in North Dakota. The Bakken "began" in eastern Montana along the North Dakota border in 2000 but it was not until mid-2007 when the EOG Parshall well set off the Bakken boom in North Dakota.

So, I was curious what calendar year 2006 looked like in North Dakota. See this post. I have only updated the first thirty of forty wells.

Early in the 16XXX series, or early in 2006, operators were drilling wells in the Madison and the Birdbear. Most of the Birdbear wells turned out to be dry holes or such poor wells they were abandoned within a month or so of drilling. There were very few Madison wells drilled.

Then, starting in mid-2006, operators started drilling Bakken wells. By today's standards they were poor wells but they have served their purpose (which I have talked about at length in the past; I won't go over that now; maybe later).

But this is what is striking. Generally speaking, operators do not abandon Bakken wells. Even really lousy Bakken wells are left alone to continue producing, albeit small amounts. If nothing else, these early Bakken wells are holding leases by production.

But many, many early Bakken wells that were very, very poor wells are now showing some life, showing some interesting production.

For example, let's look at #16068, completed in May, 2006. We didn't really start seeing Bakken wells until about #16030, so #16068 is a very, very early Bakken well. The Bakken boom in North Dakota had not yet begun.

16068, 104, Whiting, Bartleson 44-1H, Sanish, t5/06; cum 302K 11/18, full production profile is at this post.

But look at these changes in production:

First year. By today's standards, an incredibly lousy well in an incredibly good field:

BAKKEN	3-2007	11	795	1106	125	392	0	392
BAKKEN	2-2007	28	2210	2042	345	1127	0	1127
BAKKEN	1-2007	31	2924	3023	466	1421	0	1421
BAKKEN	12-2006	31	3746	4006	667	1825	0	1825
BAKKEN	11-2006	30	5309	5030	1247	3407	0	3407
BAKKEN	10-2006	25	5516	5225	4751	4194	0	4194
BAKKEN	9-2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2006	8	2	125	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2006	27	1975	2290	535	1640	0	1640
BAKKEN	5-2006	31	3101	3028	1027	1800	0	1800
BAKKEN	4-2006	18	2524	2153	1502	0	0	0

It plateaued out at around 1,500 bbls/month, which in the big scheme of things, is pretty respectable, but then look what happened in mid-2014, after the well was eight years old. Pretty incredible, huh -- what was that about Hubbert's theory?

BAKKEN	7-2015	31	3724	3709	2234	5985	5898	87
BAKKEN	6-2015	28	4016	3992	2235	3133	2631	502
BAKKEN	5-2015	18	1940	2003	1372	3518	3510	8
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	4058	4021	3208	6874	6798	76
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	4216	4217	3244	6629	6534	95
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	4079	4168	3157	6006	5827	179
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	4896	4821	3165	5254	3615	1639
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	5405	5478	3328	6124	6079	45
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	7246	7192	3645	6279	6003	276
BAKKEN	10-2014	22	4483	4550	1413	4157	3208	949
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4421	4379	1484	3590	2667	923
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	4360	4473	1633	3892	2398	1494
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	6052	6063	3289	5046	887	4159
BAKKEN	6-2014	26	8204	7974	7541	6664	1633	5031
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	95	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	781	855	237	710	710	0

And it was not re-fracked.

Again, the production declined, and plateaued out at around 1,000 bbls/month, but then look what happened early last year. Not particularly remarkable in the big scheme of things, except whatever happened, it extended the life of the well and we will see this over and over and over for the next 30+ years. This well will eventually be re-fracked (probably more than once).

BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1645	1944	523	2250	821	1429
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	1930	1655	1112	2336	518	1818
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1849	1897	1061	2279	612	1667
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1874	1883	946	3006	534	2472
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	2114	2290	1599	3257	2762	495
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	2074	1903	1402	2461	894	1567
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2150	2195	1672	2430	119	2311
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2018	1975	2162	2308	1484	824
BAKKEN	3-2018	16	590	528	652	514	32	482
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	19	575	566	148	789	773	16
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1075	1051	364	1679	1551	128
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	963	949	539	1558	1558	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1014	1006	454	1430	1377	53

An incredibly mediocre well by today's standards, that was fracked well before modern completion strategies were implemented, and yet in less than twelve years has produced as much oil as the average Madison well produced over a 30-year lifetime.

Re-Posting -- A Bruin Fort Berthold Well In The Antelope-Sanish -- January 5, 2019

January 5, 2019: 

• 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, 33-053-06668, FracFocus: 12 million gallons of water, 87% water; 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs sand, Antelope-Sanish, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 350K; hit the first 350K in less than seven months (11/18):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	11-2018	22	14137	14213	12924	22550	9676	10733
SANISH	10-2018	31	43691	43822	30933	65025	27559	32588
SANISH	9-2018	30	52975	53044	56150	60629	46067	5677
SANISH	8-2018	31	72516	72408	63718	90671	45480	39524
SANISH	7-2018	31	63800	63646	74543	90608	42893	42889
SANISH	6-2018	30	95315	95959	67134	67211	37232	25562
SANISH	5-2018	15	7799	6657	26169	13921	7572	3178
SANISH	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Wow, don't you just hate that dreaded Bakken decline? LOL.

Both neighboring wells show a small jump in production, #20328 and #22708:

• 20328, 1,647, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/12; cum 546K 11/18; 
• 22708, 1,776, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t4/14; cum 308K 11/18;

Big Deal -- January 5, 2019 -- NDSU Takes Seventh FCS Championship -- First Team In History To Win Seven FCS National Championships -- Longest Win Streak Of Any NCAA I / II Division Team?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=401104373.

Coming to the end, NDSU is up 38 - 24. It was 31- 17 with less than six minutes to play, and then NDSU misses a "chip shot" on what would have been a game-ending field goal. Eastern Washington quickly takes it to 31-24. On-side kick with 2:19 left in the game. Bison ball. Each team down to one time out. And there is it, an epic TD in the last two minutes -- GAME OVER!  What a great play call. Entire Bison offensive backfield goes left; quarterback keeper and Easton Stick goes right, running 46 yards for the TD.

From the Washington Post (note: this is not fake news):

Before North Dakota State made Fargo to Frisco an annual trip, Eastern Washington won the first FCS championship game played in North Texas. That was eight years ago.

The Big Sky Conference champion Eagles (12-2) are finally back in the title game and aren’t surprised that on Saturday they will have to face North Dakota State (15-0), which is going for its record seventh FCS championship since then.

“In the offseason thinking about getting to this point, you kind of just automatically picture it being NDSU just because it’s so normal for them to be here,” Eastern Washington linebacker Ketner Kupp said.

Second-year Eastern Washington coach Aaron Best knows what his team is up against.

“This is not a business trip. This is not a vacation. This is a game against North Dakota State, the No. 1 team in the nation, and we’re not OK to be here,” said Best, the team’s offensive coordinator during that 2010 championship season. “We will give them their best shot. They will give us our best shot.”

Yeah, it's pretty much over.... NDSU just converted its fifth for five third-down conversions.  Less than six minutes to play. NDSU should score again.

So, why is #1 playing #3 for the FCS championship?

• NDSU: #1
• Eastern Washington: #3
• Harvard Crimson: #2 but doesn't play in the FCS championship -- probably doesn't want to be embarrassed by a fly-over state football team! Or the band doesn't have a fiddle.

If You're Going To Play In Texas, Alabama

Week 1: December 30, 2018 -- January 5, 2019

International
Commodity prices plummeting

National
Jobs
The jobs report
Jobs: whopping 

State
NDSU will take its seventh national football championship 

Bakken 2.5
A huge Fancy Buttes well; fourteen permits renewed; twelve new permits issued; four DUCs reported as completed
North Dakota production / well rising again; triples historical norm

Operations
Year-end summary, 2018
Wells by quarter

Active rigs dropping fast as winter sets in
MRO reporting huge wells in Jim Creek (same link as above)
MRO wells: incredible
EOG reports a huge Clarks Creek well

Fracking
Impact of neighboring fracks; and, here; and, here;
Random update of another re-fracked MRO well

Permitting
Permitting hit recent record in October, 2018

Miscellaneous
Another nail in the Hubbert coffin, RIP
2018 Geico Rock Award winner announced
Oldest wells in North Dakota: to celebrate 65th birthdays
Clint Eastwood offers suggestion for seniors who like to drive cross-country

Commentary
Shale wells not producing as much as operators predicted 

T+60, Notes From All Over -- It's Winter And Montana Farmers Still Bringing In The Crop; Meanwhile, Pho Keene Great In New Hampshire -- January 5, 2019

Plentywood, MT: link here.

• eastern Montana, crops are still being brought in
• one ranch/farm: 7,000 acres
• 7,000 acres / 640 acres (one section) = 11 sections
• let's say five sections x two sections
• a section is one mile x one mile
• so, this ranch/farm is two miles wide by five miles long?
• durum wheat
• still 1,300 to 1,400 acres to combine
• expecting 40 - 50 bushels/acre; brought in 20 to 25 acres
• reason for the delay: too much rain; to much moisture
• quotes from the rancher/farmer

It's the kind of growing season they've not seen before around here.

"Nothing close at all. It's just unbelievable. One for the record books...for us anyway."

"It was kind of a bad year for everybody I guess."

The earth is getting greener, not browner. Link here. 

Atmospheric CO2. For what it's worth, we should get the December reading this next week. Link here. Daily readings:

• January 3, 2019: 409.99
• January 3, 2018: 406. 64

I'm feeling hot already. It must be all that coal they're burning in Germany.

From Chesto over at The Boston Globe:

General Electric prepares sell another business line: The Boston-based industrial company -- already deep into a wave of divestitures -- could be close to a deal to sell its jet-leasing business to a private equity firm for as much as $40 million.

R.I.P., Herb Kelleher: The Southwest Airlines co-founder reshaped an entire industry.

Pho Keene Great!  A Keene, NH, restaurant owner must have been looking for more exposure with this sign. Guess it worked: Now half of New England knows this Vietnamese restaurant is opening next to Keene City Hall after announcing itself with a sign that says "Pho Keene Great." Needless to say, the bureaucrats next door were not amused.

"Pho" is pronounced "fuh." 

How did authorities address the issue: the store did not have a permit to hang a sign. I am not making this up.

*************************** 

For Arianna 

So We Read On: How The Great Gatsby Came To Be and Why It Endures, Maureen Corrigan, c. 2014.

Soft cover.

Chapters are way too long; author needs to break it up a bit. Introduction is an astounding 23 pages long. Text is 304 pages; there are only six chapters and the introduction (304 / 7 = 43 pages; throw out the introduction, and each chapter averages 46 pages; my attention span is about 23 pages/chapter).

T+60 -- January 5, 2019 -- PG&E Explores Bankruptcy Filing; Global Warming Hits California

Bankruptcy talk.  PG&E link here .... exploring filing some or all of its business for bankruptcy protection as it faces billions of dollars in liabilities related to fatal wildfires in 2018 and 2017.

California cold: natural gas is pulled from Aliso Canyon storage for first time in three years. Why? It's cold in southern California.

The storage facility has not been tapped for three years, but now pressed into service ... "due to cold weather over the last week and high customer demand for natural gas, all SoCal Gas storage fields, including Aliso Canyon, have been used to provide system reliability."

All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray .... on a winter's day ....

California Dreamin', The Mama's and the Papa's
SwimSwam: top 10 "swims" of the year. Coming in at #2 -- Katie Ledecky!

#10: Townley Haas, UT (Texas Longhorn)
#9: Andrii Govorov, UKR (Ukraine)
#8: Caeleb Dressel, University of Florida
#7: Kathleen Baker, USA
#6: Ben Proud, GBR
#5: Daiya Seto, JPN
#4: Adam Peaty, GBR
#3: Caeleb Dressel, University of Florida
#2: Katie Ledecky, USA 
#1: China & Japan -- men's medley relay

Narrative for #2:

There was probably no better example of a statement swim than Katie Ledecky‘s world record mile at the Indianapolis Pro Swim Series.

Ledecky, a new pro after leaving the college ranks just two months prior, shattered her own world mark in her very first race as a professional swimmer. The swim tore five seconds off her previous world record and gave Ledecky (at the time) the top 8 swims in history in the event.

She currently owns 9 of the top 10 times in history, her world record sitting more than 18 seconds ahead of the #2 performer in history, nearly 20 seconds ahead of #3 and more than 22 seconds ahead of #4, who is coincidentally the second-fastest American in history.

The swim also spurred a wave of social media admiration from other Olympic swimmers, including Rowdy Gaines noting that Ledecky’s 800 split would have beaten everyone but herself at the Rio Olympics and Jacob Pebley wondering if Ledecky should get third-place prize money for the men’s event considering she beat all but two men swimming in Indy. See also this link.