Most Obnoxious Article Of The Week -- Oilprice -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49329GLOBALWARMING. 

Link here.

Link here. 

How many coal plants is China building each year?

In GW, the size of the average new coal plant in China?

 In GW, what's the average size of a coal plant in the US?

When was the last new coal plant commissioned in the US?

How many new coal plants were commissioned in the US last year (2024)? 
 

So, for the sake of argument, let's assume the average size of a new coal plant in China is GW is 0.500 GW. With a total of 30 GW of new coal construction in 2024, that would yield 30 / 0.5 = 60 average size coal plants in the US. 

Manic Monday -- March 17, 2025

Locator: 48515B.

Golf: Rory McIlroy wins the Players Championship on a St Patrick's Day three-hole playoff in spectacular fashion.

Coal:

• German deindustrialized to "save the world"
• being reported today: China will burn as much coal in a decade that the US burned in 200 years (numbers rounded)
• China will likely run out of indigenous coal within 30 years
• Taiwan is not known for its coal deposits

Coal: link here.

Copper: SCCO, FCX. Also, note the dividends paid by these two compaies.

Harvard: free tuition for families with income less than $200,000. Was $85,000.

• currently, the annual investment income earned by the endowment is taxed at 1.4 percent.
• Vice President JD Vance has proposed raising it to as much as 35 percent.

*****************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.84.

New wells:

• Tuesday, March 18, 2025: 47 for the month, 162 for the quarter, 162 for the year,
• 40482, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson W 158-94-26-35-1MBH,
• 40473, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-4,
• 40157, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-4,
• 40031, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-6-8H 1,
• Monday, March 17, 2025: 43 for the month, 159 for the quarter, 159 for the year,
• 41023, conf, CLR, Bud FIU 8-30H,
• 39317, conf, Grayson Mill, Marilyn 31-33 1H,
• Sunday, March 16, 2025: 41 for the month, 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year,
• 40866, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4B-MBH-B,
• 40302, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-2,
• 40033, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-5-8H 1,
• 40030, conf, Hunt Oil, Oakland 154-89-31-30H 3,
• Saturday, March 15, 2025: 37 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 153 for the year,
• 41050, conf, BR, Phantom Backbone 7D-ULW,

RBN Energy: ONEOK, MPLX ramp up their Permian-to-Gulf infrastructure, sometimes in tandem. Archived.

Crude-oil-focused drilling and completion in the Permian Basin is generating fast-increasing volumes of associated gas — and creating opportunities for midstream companies that provide “wellhead-to-water” services for natural gas and NGLs. ONEOK has become a much bigger player in this space via several transformational acquisitions and MPLX has been making moves of its own. (The companies also are working together on a new LPG export terminal — and more.) In today’s RBN blog, we continue our review of Permian-to-Gulf midstreamers’ expansion plans with a look at what ONEOK and MPLX are up to. 

This is the third blog in our series on the handful of companies that offer the full gamut of midstream services and thereby reap the benefits of operating with extraordinary efficiency, collecting fees from shippers each step of the way, and feeding pipelines, fractionators, storage and export terminals along the network’s value chain. In Part 1, we detailed plans by Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer to build new gas processing plants, add NGL pipeline and fractionation capacity, and expand their already significant ability to export NGL purity products like propane and butanes. (Energy Transfer is also building a new, long-haul gas pipeline.) In Part 2, we examined the recently updated capex plans of Targa Resources and Phillips 66 (P66). Targa has a long list of projects planned, including five gas processing plants, an NGL pipeline (Delaware Express), new fractionators and expanded LPG export capacity, while P66 has been growing its midstream portfolio primarily through acquisitions (including Pinnacle Midstream and — later this year — EPIC NGL).

In today’s blog, we turn our attention to ONEOK and MPLX. ONEOK, like P66, has become a significant player in Permian-to-Gulf midstream infrastructure in large part by buying assets and entire companies. And, unlike the midstreamers that focus on processing and moving natural gas and NGLs (and exporting NGL purity products), it also transports, stores and exports Permian-sourced crude oil.

Figure 1. ONEOK Assets and Projects in Permian-to-Gulf Region. Source: RBN 

China's Coal Boom -- Daily Newsletter -- Bloomberg -- January 17, 2025

Locator: 44702COALCHINA.

Link here.

This is not a surprise to anyone following the global energy story. 

The figures run contrary to hopes that China may have begun to reduce emissions last year, more than half a decade ahead of its 2030 target, after massive additions of wind and solar power and a rebound in output of hydropower.

But all that extra clean energy wasn’t enough to cope with the expansion in electricity consumption, which was set to outpace overall economic growth for the fifth straight year in 2024 due to strong demand for computing, and as sectors from heating to transport electrify.

The trajectory of electricity demand will be key to determining whether fossil fuel generation begins its decline in 2025. At the same time, China is maintaining its world-leading pace of renewables deployment, and is spending more on power lines and energy storage equipment to ensure the clean energy isn’t wasted.

LOL, taking the same road that Germany took:

It’s increasingly possible that renewable sources can meet all of the country’s new electricity consumption this year, and pave the way for China’s power sector to achieve peak emissions in 2025, said Gao Yuhe, a Beijing-based analyst at Greenpeace East Asia.

But lying through their teeth. LOL.

China: Growing Electricity Demand Despite A Poor Economy -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48675CHINA.

China:

• despite a incredibly poor economy (and possibly getting worse despite government stimulus) electricity demand continues to grow -- and grow significantly -- beneficiary? Coal plants.

From Bloomberg today:

Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack.

During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy.

Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures.

Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year.

China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use.

The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging.

No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed.

And, of course, we haven't even mentioned India.

Two Charts -- The Charts For Today -- A Shoutout To Greta -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47157B.

Charts of the day. From Bloomberg. 

Coal -- December 15, 2023

Locator: 46314COAL.
Locator: 46314INSANITY.  

Before we get to today's news, from the past, August 6, 2023, just a few months ago:

Now, back to today's news.

The "final statement" published by COP28, I assume, will be a fairly thick document, with lots of attachments and appendices.

I hope this is one off the appendices:

Global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4% this year and surpass a record-high level of 8.5 billion tons for the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. 

While coal demand in the United States and the EU is set for a 20% record decline this year, coal use in emerging economies “remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output,” the IEA said in its Coal 2023 annual report today.  

The US and the EU are not the problems here. Now that wind and solar energy is / are now the answer to all our global energy problems, the question is why India and China continue to add coal to their energy mix, rather than cutting coal use to the same extent that the US and the EU have.

Had India, China, and the rest of the emerging markets cut their coal demand by 20%, we would not have even needed COP28. 

By the way, "global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4%." Are you kidding me? A gazillion tons of coal use worldwide in a dozen emerging nations and the IEA bureaucrats can forecast coal use to this preciseness. LOL. The EIA can't even accurately account for oil supplies in the US from week to week. Yes, this is a fact. Doesn't even need fact checking but I will provide a link later.

Meanwhile, it appears New England will pivot from natural gas (clean) to coal and heating oil and crude oil and diesel (dirty) if it really gets cold this year and next. 

All I can think of is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity.

Deserves A Stand-Alone Post -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44785COAL. 

This article interested me. Not. At. All. 

Anyone "surprised" by this story is a nominee for the annual Geico Rock Award.

Dog-bites-man story.

But one data point jumped out at me. Truly amazing.

I don't care about the data point from an emissions point of view.

I don't care about the data point from a political point of view.

I don't care about the data point from an investment point of view.

I only "care about" the data point as a data point that reflects the energy demand of China and what that means going forward.

And then we have India.

 The data point -- okay, there were three data points, I guess, that caught my attention:

China, Coal, And EVs -- Aprill 11, 2023

Locator: 44362B.

UPDATES

Later, 12:02 p.m. CT: Social Security and  Medicare —

• Recommendations
• progressive for both SS and Medicare
• no contribution cap based on income
  
• upon retirement, benefits phase out based on income
• additional contributions mandated for entertainers, sports figures, and federal employees, but, again, progressive
• families with children below the age of six exempt from all contributions
• families with dependents in college partially exempt from contributions

ORIGINAL POST

FedEx: increases dividend. Completely unexpected. And FedEx increases their dividend during a recession. See GDPNow.

Link here.

 
This is really a cool story.

I don't think most folks have caught on to this.

As the western world moves away from coal, using natural gas as a transitional fuel, and investing heavily in solar and wind energy, China is clearly taking a different fork in the road: coal.

This is another article that notes that China is switching from gasoline-fueled ICEs to coal-fueled EVs.

Absolutely fascinating.

And Saudi Arabia can clearly see this. 

*************************
Today's Reading

Even by The New Yorker's standards, the article by Larissa MacFarquhar in the current issue of TNY is setting a new record (?) -- seventeen pages. The article is on "adoption" and it is fascinating. Reminds me again how fortunate so many of us are. 

Probably behind a paywall.

On another note, I'm still reading A Fever in the Heartland by Timothy Egan, c. 2023. This should be mandatory reading by all juniors in "red" schools. And all GOP congressmen "investigating" "January 6." Timothy Egan's book certainly puts "January 6" into historical perspective.

************************
Jon Rahm

For Jon Rahm, social security withheld on his $3-million winnings: $10,000. This works out to 0.3% [0.062*160,200)/$3.24 million].

0.03% for a multimillionaire.

6.2% for a $50K blue-collar worker.

The GOP continues to move farther and farther away from me.

A reader replies: 

His social security contribution as a percent on his his $8 million in 2023 anticipated winnings:

$20,000 in SS contributions.

$20,000 social security / $8,000,000 earned income = 0.25%.

Medicare is even a better deal. Not only is it unchanged from 2022, despite inflation, it's still a whopping 1.45% for individual matched by another 1.45% for employer.

0.029 x 160,200 = $4,646 / $8,000,000 = 0.00058 = 0.06%.

Compared to what he would be paying in Spain, Jon Rahm must think he died and gone to heaven.

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Again, as noted, the GOP continues to move away from me. 

Sixteen Wells Coming Off Confidential Over Weekend; Might WTI Open "Green" Today? February 27, 2023

Top story of the day: Saudi, Ukraine.

• geopolitics
• Covid, WSJ, DOE
• China, Russia, Saudi, US
• photo of the day.
  

Covid, WSJ, DOE: well played.

• obviously "no one" read past the headline; LOL.
• P. T. Barnum comes to mind
  

Coal:

• energy transition is dead; we just don't know it yet -- Peter Zeihan;
• China: link here.
• the numbers are staggering
• thumbing their nose at Kyoto, Paris, Biden, Kerry
  

Credit card debt: the saga continues.

• lots of graphs (yes, we get it, enough with the graphs already): where's the analysis?

Ford, China: a disaster. Link to WSJ.

• there's a reason Ford doesn't publish a detailed breakdown of its China sales
• the market share for Ford’s largest joint venture in China, with Changan Automobile Co., shrank to 1% from 4% between 2016 and 2022, according to industry data and Changan-Ford’s company filings.
  

Investing:

• graphs

Buffett:

• the knives are out.
• has BRK become a meme stock?
  

Energy: among top ten stories of the year.

• WTI subsumes Brent;
• this is a biggie
• eleven -- count 'em -- eleven US Gulf Coast terminals --> WTI to Brent
• Dated Brent: WTI, Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll.
  

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $76.43 (green).

Natural gas: $2.597 (green, by 2%).

Monday, February 27, 2023: 84 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 155 for the year
39088, conf, CLR, Colette 5-18H,
39019, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 12H,
38743, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-11H,
38404, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 2TFH,
36050, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 3B,

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

 RBN Energy: the race to debottleneck US LNG feedgas route. Archived.

LNG exports will be the biggest driver of demand growth for the Lower 48 natural gas market over the next five years. After a year of oversupply in 2023, export capacity additions will help to balance the market and support gas prices in 2024 as the glut spills over into next year. Beyond 2024, higher export volumes will lead to tighter balances and price spikes. As supply struggles to keep up with new export capacity, the timing of pipeline expansions will be critical for balancing the market. The bulk of new LNG export projects are sited along a small stretch of the Texas-Louisiana coastline and more pipeline capacity will be needed to move incremental feedgas into this area and across the “last mile” to the facilities. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a series delving into the planned pipeline expansions lining up to serve LNG demand along the Gulf Coast.

Coal -- 2022

For the archives.

From social media:

"We" haven't moved from coal to natural gas, much less, from natural gas to wind and solar. 

With regard to natural gas, I find this incredibly remarkable. As I've said earlier, this explains why federal and state governments want to ban natural gas stoves and ovens: natural gas absolutely destroys the interest in renewable energy by consumers who actually pay for their electricity (by the way, this has huge implications for investors in oil and gas):

************************
The Book Page

Two new books to add to my winter reading program:

• The Book of Eels, Our Enduring Fascination with the Most Mysterious Creature in the Natural World, Patrick Svensson, c. 2020.
  
• The Mind of a Bee, Lars Chittka, c. 2022. Princeton University Press. A scientific treatise. The pitch of the print is so tiny -- if one regularly reads in 12-pitch, this book must be printed in 9-pitch, and even possibly 8-pitcch. Very challenging to read unless one really concentrates but it probably resulted in this 213-page book (text, not including index) from being 3x thicker.
  

China Will Build More New Coal Plants In Three Years Than Currently Exist In The US -- Blames Their Requirement On The Ukraine War -- COP27 -- Cop-Out -- And Kerry's Concern? Flaring In The Permian -- November 15, 2022

I think folks forget how big China is ... and India for that matter.

Link here.

You have to read to the third paragraph and even then it's easily missed:

China is adding coal plants to tackle energy security concerns, but this doesn’t mean it is backing away from its previously stated emissions curbs, Chinese delegates said at the COP27 summit this week. 

China may be adding new coal plants to prevent a repeat poor performance from recent years that triggered electricity shortages in the Asian nation, but these coal plants will serve as a buffer to volatile global energy markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s delegates said. 

Previous figures from a senior researcher at State Grid of China Corp Energy Research Institute estimated China’s coal expansion would total 270GW of new plants through 2025—more than what the United States has now.

Key points:

• China embracing coal (this is not even new; China is simply doubling down);
• China blames Ukraine war -- despite embracing coal for decades
• China's coal expansion -- new plants between now and 2025 -- three years -- China will build more new coal plants than the entire number of coal plants in the US
• China will build more new coal plants than the entire number of coal plants that currently exist in the US
• incredible on so many levels
• with so many EPA regulations in the US, it would probably be impossible for the US to build even one new coal plant in the US

John Kerry? Worried about flaring in the Permian. 

China gives "cover" to western European countries returning to coal, like Germany.

And if "we" are returning to coal, we're going to be using natural gas and crude oil for a long, long time. 

For investors, another open-book test.

**************************
For The Archives
Veterans Day - 2022

Speaking at the Veterans Day assembly, O. C. Taylor Elementary School, November 11, 2022.

Granddaughter Sophia introduced me and handed me the microphone.

Photos by the "Yearbook" photography staff, third and fourth grade students.

Two New Crude Oil Policies And China Opening Up -- November 11, 2022

Numbers rounded, and some numbers "cherry-picked" to make things look slightly better than they might actually be. But, go ahead, fact-check this stuff. It should make your head spin.

OXY:

• up 5.5% today and was actually higher at one time; up $3.88 (ditto)
• over last two days: from $67.60 to $74.29 = up almost 10% over two days
• I heard Warren Buffett may drink an extra can of Diet Coke today and will stop by McDonald's on the way home.

Over two days:

• COP: from $125 to $135
• CVX: from $178 to $187
• PSX: from $104 to $112
• DVN: from $67 to $72

One day, today:

• COP: up 4%; up $5.13.
• CVX: up 3%; up $5.45.
• PSX: up 4.88%; p $5.18.
• DVN: up 4.15%; up $2.85; and was much higher at the top before profit-taking;

Twitter is quiet; nothing over at CNBC; Urkraine rout; could war be over; steep sanctions on Russia from December 5, 2022? What's going on? As noted Twitter is quiet, as is CNBC and had I not checked, I would have completely missed what's going on. 

The Dow is up only 74 points; at 0.22%, flat; certainly not reflecting what "oils" did.

Other indices up a bit more (S&P 500 up 1% and NASDAQ up 2%) but nothing to indicate the blowout (in a positive sense) the oils are showing.

This is quite incredible.

Only explanation: this time China is serious -- will finally "open up."

And, of course, the two major explicit oil policies by the largest oil producers in the world:

• Saudi Arabia: "Saudi first."
• the US: "no more drilling.

Maybe more on this later, but oil bulls are having an incredible two days.

Now that the midterm elections are over, the fog will clear.

Peter Linder, link here:

• WTI back to $90, on its way too $100
• NYMEX gas price over $6
• winter is coming
• US gas drilling faces Biden's "no more drilling" policy
• buy what you like
• favorite oil producer: Whitecap Resources: clean Canadian oil.
  
• favorite gas producer: NuVista: Wapiti Montney.
  
• no recommendation, not an investment site.

North Texas:

• 36°F tonight; colder on Sunday -- and it's only mid-November

************************
And World Leaders Complain About Flaring In The Permian

Link here.

China Coal -- July 22, 2022

In hindsight, has any one person, other than Cathie Wood, been so incredibly wrong as Greta Thunberg? Okay, John Kerry.

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/07/21/china-approves-458-million-coal-project-power-crisis/. 

And, apparently, coal traders are making money, hand over fist, as they say.

Run On "Banks?" Great Couple Of Weeks For EV Stories -- June 13, 2022

First things first:

• I guess the Texas grid held after hitting record demand;
• apparently things are in better shape than expected: works that way as long as the sun shines and the wind blows, which means Texas will be fine this summer
• that doesn't mean we won't have warnings, alerts, brownout and rolling blackouts but won't amount to much
• bigger story will be watching ISO-NY and ISO-NE 
• that "winter thing" a couple of years ago: not only a "one-off" but it wasn't due to excessive demand
• ERCOT today: 
• capacity projected to be 86K MW
• demand projected to max out at 76K MW
  

Nicest thing about 104°F over the weekend?

• Monday morning, today, feels almost cool
• poolside with strong breeze; quite cool
• this a.m. -- still in bed -- I thought the a/c had come on -- it felt so cool -- but I don't use a/c when my wife is not home
  

The Sports Page:

• NASCAR yesterday: what little I saw, not interested
• PGA: stellar tournament this past weekend and now the US Open this week -- Brookline (Boston), MA
• Rory! Phil, who?
• NBA: fifth game tonight; now it gets serious; series tied; Stephen Curry amazing

Cryptocurrency:

• two cryptocurrencies stop withdrawals: Binance and Celsius;
• is this like a "run on the banks"?

Bear market. Everything is on sale.

EVs:

• ELMS: seeks bankruptcy protection
• happening faster than expected, link here;

Ovintiv: this is really, really cool

• a couple of days ago I brought this up, link here;
• today, we have a bit more background, link here.

**************************
Banner Week For Coal-Powered EVs

These made my week (actually, over the past two weeks, or so):

• GM Chevy Volt runs on coal.
• ELMS seeks bankruptcy protection.
• California grid.
• Coal: India and China coal production surging by 700 million tons per year; greater than all US coal output; link here.

************************
Solyndranization Of America

See Solyndra tag for background. See the list.
SPACs: just another name for laundering.

***********************
BNPL

Let's see, one pays for a large luxury item -- let's say, an Apple computer -- $2,500 -- on a major credit card, with "promise to self" to pay off in one month

• promise broken
• first month balance not paid in full: 24% APR interest rate
• difficulty paying it off; miss the deadline; vacationing, forgot about due date? Add "late fee" to that 24% APR interest
• Big Bank: making huge amount of money

Now, imagine, make that same large luxury item purchase and retailer says, "four easy installments" with no late fees and no interest as long as fully paid on time -- over "four easy installments"

• now we get story after story in the press telling us BNPL is "bad"
• ever wonder who plants those stories?
• next big thing: BNPL
• but interestingly, we've had BNPL forever -- only difference, AAPL is now getting into this big time

Firestone: has had BNPL for as long as I can remember. An incredible marketing idea. Except for annual inspections and simply oil changes, my hunch is that the average automobile "tune up" or "servicing" runs $600 for the average American, being able to pay for that very, very necessary charge over six months at no interest is a godsend for many. I wonder how many folks take advantage of this?

************************
Anti-Fracking

Tea leaves suggest OPEC knew long ago that their spare capacity was a myth.

• their biggest fear: US shale would fill the gap
• all of a sudden, OPEC loses not only money, but power
• then, story after story about the dangers of fracking
• ever wonder who planted those stories?

************************
From Twitter

Things don't just happen.

They happen by design. 

*************************
But ...

... having said all that, my favorite story all weekend was AP's fact checking confirmed that EVs placed a strain on California's power grid more than a year ago ... and it was not covered by mainstream media until someone noted it on twitter.

The AP trying to spin that story was more hilarious than the actual story itself.

China -- The Coming Energy Debacle -- March 7, 2022

The most entertaining game this autumn, prior to the mid-terms, will be watching everyone blame everyone else for the energy and agriculture debacle headed our way.

This is from Charles Kennedy, perhaps the "best" contributor over at oilprice.com, bar none.

"China scrambles to ensure energy security as commodities soar."

Hey, before I forget, you may want to take another look at this post before further reading. Just saying. UNP is going to be hauling a lot of coal this year. 

Now, back to Charles Kennedy.

According to the Chinese official, "The sources of China's crude oil and natural gas imports have been diversified, and long-term contracts account for a high proportion. As long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable," South China Morning Post reported.

The planning body NDRC said over the weekend that the country would raise coal production and reserves, develop "major petroleum reserve projects," and increase petroleum reserves, too, per Reuters.

Last month, China said it would help run its coal-fired power plants at full capacity in a bid to ensure energy security, despite the climate goals of the world's largest polluter. 

The Chinese authorities will increase coal supply, and coal-fired power plants will be supported in running at full capacity and generating more electricity to meet the electricity needs for production and residential consumption, state news agency Xinhua reported in mid-February, citing a decision made at the State Council's Executive Meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang.

This weekend, NDRC's Lian said that the Chinese government would not ration power and natural gas usage unless in extreme situations. China suffered a power crisis in the autumn of 2021, which resulted in blackouts in September and October and slowed the growth of China's economy in the third quarter of 2021.

Giving credit where credit is due.

Several years ago I was getting a note from one reader every few days telling me that someday coal was going to be incredibly important. I suppose this was about the time that Hillary Clinton said she was going to put every coal miner out of a job. 

Both the reader and I assumed the day King Coal would rise again would be "later," rather than sooner. I certainly did not have this on my 2022 bingo card. Maybe the reader did.

Coal Miner's Daughter, Loretta Lynn, Women of Country

Clearing Out The In-Box -- December 18, 2021

NFL starts postponing games due to Covid-19. Link here. 

NOG: link here for the NOG non-op model:

• low G&A that scales with bolt-ons
• low competition for deals

US oil demand: surges; hits all-time records; link here.

• this story has been told many, many times this past week;
• gets no air time in the evening news according to others; I don't watch the evening news;
• no air time? It's not the Greta narrative faux environmentalists want to hear;
• the surge in crude oil demand comes before the airlines are back to full capacity, full demand;
• demand , on a four-week basis, hit an all-time high last week. Link here. 
  

Congestion at the port, link here:

• containers actually reaching the terminal and being off-loaded has plummeted since Brandon intervened;
• at the time Brandon intervened, there were 60 cargo ships anchored off-shore; now there are 102 container vessels waiting for berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach
• unloadings have dropped 14% month/month (November/October)
• unloadings have dropped 13.2% year/year (2021/2020)
• smoke and mirrors: for the year, 2021 will be better than 2020, but the import volumes were front-loaded in the first half of the year, when congestion, though significant, was less severe than it is now -- after Brandon interceded
• November, 2021, after Brandon interceded:
• capacity (ships anchored off shore): has increased
• unloadings have decreased
• November, 2021:
• at the beginning of the month: 637,329 TEUs (a measure of capacity)
• at the end of the month: 745,305 TEUs
• once containers get unloaded at the terminal, it's call dwell time, until they are loaded on rail or truck for movement;
• dwell time by rail has dropped from a high of 13.5 days this summer (2021) to just two days, the lowest since pre-Covid; this is from the port's spokesperson; it needs to be fact-checked and definitions provided; a drop from 13.5 days to two days seems almost impossible; if not, investors, take note.

Coal, link here.

• before we get started: whatever happened to "clean coal"? asking for a friend;
• as noted earlier, this is the story of the week, and it is going to be the biggest untold energy story for 2021;
• IEA: amount of electricity generated by coal -- worldwide -- will hit a record high in 2021, and another record in 2022
• coal-generated electricity soared 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours
• exacerbated by decommissioning oil- and gas-fired power plants, ironically resulting in an energy crisis worldwide
• the economic rebound coincided with these policy changes
• after two years of declines, coal use in 2020 (sic) is set to jump 9%; link here:
  
• biggest increases by the following:
• US: 20%
  
• UK: 20%
  
• India: 12%
  
• China: 9%
  

UK energy crisis, link here:

• natural gas and coal now accounting for 60 - 70% of total power generation;
• this is before the cold winter weather arrives next week;
• wind? Producing 0.77 GW out of a total demand of 40.4 GW.

Auto sales plummet worldwide, link here.

• this comes at a time when auto manufacturers desperately need the cash to advance their EV-revolution; the quarterly and annual reports could be disasterous
• European auto stocks are on watch heading into Friday's cash session in the U.S., after ugly November sales data was released from across the pond.
• new registrations plunged 17% in November, marking the fifth month in a row where the region's auto market contracted, according to Bloomberg Friday morning.
• new car registrations came in at 864,119, the worst number since the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association started tracking figures in 1993, the writeup says.

Saudi Aramco: From Shubham Garg, link here:

• drilling costs are down 70%;
• completion costs are down 90%;
• productivity is up 500%
• Garg: even with the above, $70 billion cost to generate $8.6 billion of annual net income results in a project that doesn't even pay out on NPV5 (NPV definition).

Saudi Arabia: Prince MBS takes the reigns; new leadership coincides almost exactly with what is now going on in London;

Covid-19, NYC, link here:
cases hit an all-time high, on a daily basis, this past week: 20,000 new cases in one day

ROCE: definition over at Investopedia.

China And India Opened The Door: Coal Is Back On The Table As A Transitional Fuel -- Sunday, November 14, 2021

Updates

November 19, 2021: coal really is the transitional fuel. And "we haven't even seen any true EV penetration yet. LOL. From social media. 

Later, 6:46 p.m. CT: I continue to doubt that President Biden is in charge of much of anything in his White House. This suggests there are two huge factions: one faction is very, very ideological and will do everything -- no matter how painful to the American public -- to kill "US oil." The other faction is reality-focused and very,  very concerned that the mid-terms could be devastating. Link to Irina Slav. 

Later, 6:12 p.m. CT: COP26 is hardly over and as noted, "coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel." From twitter:

COP26: Pretty funny. China and India opened the door. Coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel. LOL. And to think John Kerry signed off on it and said it was "a great agreement."

• this is really amazing when you think about it:
• 85 cars in Brandon's motorcade
• 200 private jets
• '2 weeks of meeting that could have been held on Zoom; and, for all of that,
• coal is back on the table; didn't even get to natural gas or crude oil.
  

Coal in the US, Brandon's own agency, link here: the EIA estimates that the US will use almost twenty percent more coal to generate electricity in 2021 than it did in 2020 ... and this is before EVs make any significant inroads.

Another pipeline at risk:

• Brandon: "I'll show them who's boss. Shut down Line 5."
• FERC: "Here, hold my beer."

• FERC could wreak havoc in Missouri if it shuts down the STL Pipeline. Link here. 
• I have no dog in this fight. 
• The Dems now control FERC, 3 - 2. 

Shortage? What shortage? OPEC sees huge surplus next year. Link here:

For The Archives -- Global Warming -- Coal: The New Transitional Fuel -- John Kerry -- November 14, 2021

The UN Climate Conference, 2021, COP26: the takeaway -- China and India opened the door -- coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel.

• this was actually a step back from the Paris Protocol or whatever the last major summit was called. two 30-second elevator observations:
• this was a complete failure -- because it did not advance the Paris Protocol. Regardless of what the UN might say, it was China and India that carried the day -- and they carried the day with commitment to continue using coal, like "forever."
• there was much more emphasis on the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies being there. They understand the importance of virtue signaling. Every corporate presentation now includes an "ESG slide" and "COP26" needs to be on that slide.
• from now on, every country will go its own way, with reality leading the way;
  
• it raises questions on the future of such conferences. These events are becoming bigger than the Summer Olympics and generating a whole lot less in excitement. How do you spell "ho-hum"?

That first line, "... or whatever the last major summit was called." Quick review, courtesy of wiki.

• COP: conference of the parties
• Framework Convention, 1992
• Berlin, 1995: first UN Climate Change Conference
• Kyoto Protocol, 1997: to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries (China, India, given a pass)
• Kyoto Protocol conferences: annually beginning in 2005
• Durban Amendment, 2011: supposed to result in a binding treaty; to be defined by 2015; become effective in 2020
• Prelude to Paris Agreement: annually from 2011 to 2015
• Paris Agreement, 2015: Kyoto Protocol "passed"; international treaty; legally binding (LOL)
• COP 26: first UN Climate Conference to actually be advertised as a "COPXX" just like "SuperBowl XX." Twenty-sixth COP, but the third meeting of the parties of the Paris Agreement ; US formally (and legally withdrew on November 4, 2020; President Biden "signs the instrument to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement; treaties require 2/3rd majority of US Senate; vote has not taken place
  
• COP 27: to be held in Egypt, 2022
• COP 28: to be held in UAE

It appears COP26 will be seen as the high tide.

Items for further discussion:

• we have only ten years to act -- 1994, and every year after that
• Greta has moved on: it appears Greta has moved on to global issue du jour
• this year: Covid vaccine equity
• next year: "Taylor Swift licensing" protocols
• coming: a Tesla in every garage
  
• China and India: set unobtainable goals for 2060
• 2.5°C vs 1.5°C
• new sheriff in town: President Xi
• zero dollars for all those sinking islands
• it was all about sinking islands; why did that meme "go away"?
  
• quick: name the Pacific island that is the poster child for global warming: Kiribati. The atoll has actually gained more land above sea level since the Kyoto Protocol

Finally, note:

• these UN conferences are still numbered by COP -- so this was COP26. The longer this goes on, the less urgency is obvious. COP28 is still planned for UAE in 2023
• in an attempt to return to some sense of urgency, the conferences will eventually morph into PPA (parties of the Paris Agreement); COP26 was held in conjunction with PPA3
• PPA5 will likely be the "lead-off" meeting. It is still unknown when / if PPAs will become annual events. Tea leaves: PPA4 in 2025 and every every five years after that, although if the billionaires want to party sooner, we could see these events on an annual basis starting next year;

********************************
Doofus

John Kerry.

Touts "good" climate deal ... after China, India announce they won't be giving up coal any time soon. 

I just can't imagine spending the best (and last) years of one's life doing something so meaningless. Speaking of which, where is his yacht moored this year, Connecticut or Rhode Island?

About That Energy Revolution -- October 23, 2021

 In land area, Indonesia is smaller than Denmark. Hold that thought. 

Countries strongly dependent upon coal, ZeroHedge:

Oil: meanwhile the stories keep coming in -- shortage of crude oil; end-of-year crude oil could see $90-Brent; $87-WTI. With WTI at $84 yesterday, I don't see a lot of difference between yesterday's price and end-of-year price as forecast by Goldman's Jeff Curie. Remember: whether or not guys like Jeff Curie are right or wrong, folks make decisions based on their estimates. 

***************************
Americans on the Move

Moving company, Mayflower, data:

• top inbound metro: Sarasota, FL (New Yorkers leaving high cost/high tax NYC)
• top inbound states with number one listed first:
• Idaho
• South Carolina
• Oregon
• Tennessee
• Florida

• Top inbound metro areas:
• Sarasota, FL
• Wilmington, NC
• Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL
• Sante Fe, NM
• Boise, ID
  

• Top reasons certain destinations selected once decision to move was made:
• two-thirds indicated water as a top influence:
• almost as many cited proximity to parks, green spaces, and nature trails
• over half indicated dining out options influenced their move

• Most interesting: the definition of "home town" is changing
• when I was growing up, "home town" meant where I was originally from;
• now, more and more, "home town" means where one currently lives

• Unable to verify, but it appears Mayflower did not poll the 75,000 Haitians currently on their way to America.
  

******************************
Lana Del Rey

Eighth album: Blue Bannisters.

Apparently just released.

Full album is already on YouTube.

Review. 

Her fans are incredible.

Coal

Background

Electricity mix: ourworldindata.org.

 Updates (infrequent)

September, 2021: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

• expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
• is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
• this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
• the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
• remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
• supply decline driven by two factors:
• inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
• the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
• much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia