Allam Cycle Production Plant Update -- August 2, 2017

This is for the archives. I've only mentioned "Allam" once on the blog; I've mentioned La Porte, Texas, a couple of times.

For background, three links:

• wiki: Allam power cycle
• Forbes, February 21, 2017  -- it looks like we will know a year from now whether the technology works 
• this post, November 18, 2015
• today's post by RNB Energy: natural gas takes front seat in the oil-driven Bakken
• a YouTube video (miserably long; start at 2:05)

The first Allam power cycle production plant is scheduled to come on-line later this year in La Porte, TX.

A reader suggested that with the (somewhat unexpected) large gas production in North Dakota, one has to wonder if it might make more sense to use natural gas directly rather than convert coal to gas (at least initially), using the Allam cycle.

If one considers the amount of lignite in North Dakota, one can think of our state as a huge energy producer (Allam power cycle) not in terms of decades but in terms of centuries.

Allam cycle is essentially zero emissions, as I understand it. Algore would be thrilled.

The reader went on: due to population differences, fossil fuel energy's impact on a NoDak is 15x that of Texas' energy on a Texan. That applies to tax revenue and overall economy.

If the Allam cycle production plant in Texas is a success, there might be huge opportunities in North Dakota.

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Meanwhile, In Michigan ...

From The Detroit Free Press, data points:

• plans to build "a state of the art" natural gas power plant to replace two outmoded plants burning coal
• $1 billion plant
• 1,100 MW
• 100 acres
• power for about 850,000 homes beginning in 2022
• slightly less than $1 million / MW 
• unlike wind/solar: dispatchable; instant on/off
• because of the dependability of wind/solar and the fact that they still  have night in Michigan, the natural gas plant is likely to be running 65% of the time

Reposting / Updating Production Profile Of An Early CLR Holstein Federal Well -- August 2, 2017

The Holstein Federal wells are tracked here.

The production profile of this Holstein Federal well has been previously posted, but this is simply quite remarkable, and tells a story. Note:

• this well was fracked 2/14 and has not been re-fracked
• this well is still flowing; no pump
• dreaded Bakken decline rate? I don't see it
• see the slide "Midland Type Curve" and note the curve indicated by the arrow on the slide

Production profile of a selected Holstein Federal well:

• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 534K 6/17; still without a pump, as of 6/17;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	24947	25262	30006	37210	34335	2860
BAKKEN	5-2017	29	24830	24445	43125	34239	31094	3131
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	27	13692	13664	13110	18084	16335	1511
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	18256	18038	18636	25422	25165	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	7	793	1156	65	1361	1234	21
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	19316	19219	3496	25013	24439	93
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	17681	17671	2572	22481	22331	90
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	20476	20555	3519	26261	22488	3413
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	21432	21423	3827	28337	27779	93
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	21949	21884	4022	28284	26484	1350
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	22812	22850	4275	28826	28268	93
BAKKEN	4-2016	15	14135	13868	1407	16335	16075	42
BAKKEN	3-2016	22	17231	17485	3322	23166	22785	66
BAKKEN	2-2016	28	22512	22684	4118	28960	28876	84
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	27816	27566	5316	34135	31939	2196
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	24215	24351	4395	28640	28415	225
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	21356	21233	3387	21841	21751	90
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	21277	21327	3317	24907	24814	93
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	22198	22368	4018	27596	26392	1204
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	19512	19459	2524	19752	12130	7622
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	30482	30535	6024	37990	36782	1208
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	32301	32443	6513	43892	43622	270
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	24112	23865	3988	27484	27243	241
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	12868	12830	1280	13628	11772	1856
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	11716	12034	1347	10170	9468	702
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	21621	21284	3738	21643	14527	7116
BAKKEN	1-2015	7	4896	4536	0	6972	0	6972

Eleven New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; CLR's Holstein Federal Wells Are Telling Us A Story -- August 2, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.56↓	8/2/2017	08/02/2016	08/02/2015	08/02/2014	08/02/2013
Active Rigs	59	34	74	194	179

Eleven new permits:

• Operators: Crescent Point Energy (8); WPX (3)
• Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams); Mandaree (Dunn)
• Comments: Crescent Point with permits for two 4-well pads, one in 8-157-99, one in 9-157-99; WPX with permits for a 3-well permit in 5-148-99

Six permits renewed, all by CLR:

• CLR: six Colter permits in Dunn County

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30344, 1,536, CLR, Holstein Federal 12-25H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --
• 30346, 1,494, CLR, Holstein Federal 10-25H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --
• 30345, 1,138, Holstein Federal 11-25H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --

I track the Holstein Federal wells here.

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Some Notes On The Holstein Federal Wells
Track the Holstein Federal wells here

These four wells remain on the SI/NC list, but all have been fracked.
29936, API: 33-053-06449, a Three Forks second bench well; according to FracFocus, fracked 2/17/17:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	17520	17472	37414	25692	22349	3277
BAKKEN	5-2017	6	3377	4069	10365	4592	4020	540
BAKKEN	4-2017	3	821	0	7170	1002	0	1002

29936, API: 33-053-06448, according to FracFocus, fracked 2/17/17:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	35698	35915	24743	48633	42305	6203
BAKKEN	5-2017	8	15080	16650	8423	19828	17358	2330
BAKKEN	4-2017	3	2147	0	8438	1478	0	1478

29934, API: 33-053-06447, according to FracFocus, fracked 3/11/17:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	24417	24727	39488	33771	29377	4307
BAKKEN	5-2017	9	14527	14160	20151	19125	16743	2247
BAKKEN	4-2017	1	189	0	1152	0	0	0

29933, API: 33-053-06446, according to FracFocus, fracked 3/11/17:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	35750	35843	28995	49335	42917	6292
BAKKEN	5-2017	8	11849	11396	7416	13131	11495	1543
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

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Look at the production jump in this phenomenal Holstein Federal well,
27564, API: 33-053-05653:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	24947	25262	30006	37210	34335	2860
BAKKEN	5-2017	29	24830	24445	43125	34239	31094	3131
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	27	13692	13664	13110	18084	16335	1511
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	18256	18038	18636	25422	25165	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	7	793	1156	65	1361	1234	21
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	19316	19219	3496	25013	24439	93
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	17681	17671	2572	22481	22331	90
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	20476	20555	3519	26261	22488	3413
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	21432	21423	3827	28337	27779	93

Look at the production jump in this phenomenal Holstein Federal well,
32294 API: 33-053-07411:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	37719	37695	25176	54233	44173	9821
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	29334	29246	44462	41743	37845	3665
BAKKEN	4-2017	3	260	222	40	1	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	5	1692	1832	758	2396	2292	12
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	26979	26944	7933	33122	32439	390
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	38402	38547	14249	53175	52563	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	8	12819	12355	11766	15635	14932	528

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Every Production Profile Tells A Story

Every Picture Tells A Story, Rod Stewart

Rain Impacting Bakken Operations? -- August 2, 2017

From The Herald via Twitter four hours ago:

Because of the impact rain is having on county roads, Williams County is not allowing oversize movement on county roads until further notice.

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Quick Look At Midland: Filloon

Over at SeekingAlpha. At the link, this is the well I'm interested in (see graphic):

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TCM

Nice discussion regarding Columbo and Dial M For Murder.

A Random Look At Slawson's Wolf Well In Van Hook (Big Bend), #17505 -- August 2, 2017

On/about April 15, 2016, Slawson requested to place this well on the TA (temporary abandon) list for economic reasons, saying it would bring the well back to active (A) status once economic conditions improved. The NDIC denied the request on/about May, 2016. Check to see what happened next.

This well was shut-in for 24 months or so, before finally coming back on line.

• 17505, 309, Slawson, Wolf 1-4H, Van Hook (I believe this is an error; it looks like it is in Big Bend); t7/09; cum 198K 6/17; API: 33-061-00823.

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Bees Back From The Brink

That's the theme of the Bloomberg article. Things aren't quite that simple, but here's the lede:

The number of U.S. honeybees, a critical component to agricultural production, rose in 2017 from a year earlier, and deaths of the insects attributed to a mysterious malady that’s affected hives in North America and Europe declined, according a U.S. Department of Agriculture honeybee health survey released Tuesday.

The number of commercial U.S. honeybee colonies rose 3 percent to 2.89 million as of April 1, 2017 compared with a year earlier, the Agriculture Department reported. The number of hives lost to Colony Collapse Disorder, a phenomenon of disappearing bees that has raised concerns among farmers and scientists for a decade, was 84,430 in this year’s first quarter, down 27 percent from a year earlier. Year-over-year losses declined by the same percentage in April through June, the most recent data in the survey.

Still, more than two-fifths of beekeepers said mites were harming their hives, and with pesticides and other factors still stressing bees, the overall increase is largely the result of constant replenishment of losses, the study showed.

No comment. I get it.

Wednesday US Crude Oil Data In Three Charts -- August 2, 2017

US Crude Oil: Weeks To Re-Balance -- August 2, 2017

US crude oil reserves fell less than expected in latest report. This link will download a PDF on your screen: go.usa.gov/xRPEP  .

Weeks to re-balance: 39 weeks (up from 38 weeks following previous report):

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	39

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The Myth Persists

A reader sent me the link to this CNBC article: OPEC wants oil above $50, but US shale producers won't play along.

I replied:

Saudi Arabia is doing a great job in perpetuating this myth, that ND and TX won't play along.

In fact, as I posted on the blog earlier this week, total OPEC production has hit new records (mostly due to Iraq).

Saudi Arabia has a problem; it's not ND, TX. Saudi Arabia's problem is Iraq, Iran, and Libya.

I assume it was Saudi money that was behind all the efforts to kill shale crude oil pipelines and all the anti-fracking activity. Not all Saudi money but a huge portion of it.

Later: the reader reminds me that Putin was also involved in the US anti-fracking, anti-pipeline movement.

There's Always Two Sides Of The Story -- August 2, 2017

The other day I posted this photo:

Today, I woke up to this headline:

I'm not sure how the pilots are doing but Sophia is safe and sound, back on the ground. I'll get her side of the story later. LOL.

Sophia was heard to have said this: any landing you walk away from, was a good landing.