New Milestone For The Blog -- October 29, 2015

18689 stand-alone posts prior to this one.

The page-view counter will go over the 8,000,000 mark sometime overnight.

A huge thank you to all the readers especially those that send me notes and alert me to things I would otherwise most likely miss.

At the height of the Bakken boom, the website averaged 6,000 page views / 24 hours. Now, the website is averaging about 3,000 page views in the same time period.

A google search for Bakken oil blog reveals this screen shot, taken at 10:23 p.m. Central Time, October 29, 2015:

A google search for topical news Bakken oil October 2015 revealed this screenshot:

Five (5) New Permits; Whiting Reports A High-IP Well East Of Williston; Three (3) More Bakken DUCs; Lots Of Stuff Going On -- October 29, 2015

Active rigs:

	10/29/2015	10/29/2014	10/29/2013	10/29/2012	10/29/2011
Active Rigs	69	190	182	183	200

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:

• 29094, 2,402, Whiting, P Vance 154-97-14-9-21-15HA, Truax, gas rose to 3,573 units in upper Bakken; 7 days to drill the lateral (there's an error in the file report), gas peaked at 6,372 units, 33 stages; 4.7 million lbs, t5/15 cum 64K 8/15;
• 29804, SI/NC, BR, Kirkland 14-21MBH, Pershing, no production data,
• 30232, SI/NC, BR, Sun Notch 43-32MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 30436, SI/NC, SM Energy, Anne 13-19HS, Ambrose, no production data,

Five (5) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (3), MRO (2)
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Four Bears (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Lots of stuff going on. Whiting has four more wells placed on the confidential list -- all Flatland Federal and all TFH wells, #2 - #5, Flatland Federal 11-4-XTFH

Lots of stuff going on. Is Statoil getting ready to shut down operations in the Bakken for awhile? Statoil canceled 12 permits: Raymond, Helling, Stallion, M. Olson, Edna, Poeckes, L E wells all in McKenzie County.

Lots of stuff going on. Slawson cancels five (5) permits: Howo, Skybolt, Shakafox (2), and Fox wells, all in Mountrail County.

Lots of stuff going on. EOG temporarily abandons four (4) more wells, all in the Parshall oil field. 

One (1) producing well completed:

• 30439, 802, Hess, EN-Kiesel-LE-155-94-1918H-1, Manitou, t10/15; cum 3K 9/15;

**********************************

29094, see above, Whiting, P Vance 154-97-14-9-21-15HA, Truax:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2015	8547	30364
7-2015	11970	37500
6-2015	17258	29705
5-2015	25020	1812
4-2015	432	0

NDIC November, 2015, Hearing Dockets Are Posted; Highlights Only

The November, 2015, hearing dockets are posted.

Disclaimer: these summaries are for my personal use only; you are free to read them; don't quote me on them; there will be typographical and factual errors.  If this is important to you go to the source. Link here.

Past dockets are archived here.


Highlights  
These are just the cases that caught my eye the first time through. This was done very, very quickly; it was not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors. The full summary is yet to be posted.  

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 (9 pages)

Mostly "continued" cases
24599, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well; authorize 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 12 wells
24622, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, amend, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail, 16 wells

Thursday, November 19, 2015 (13 pages)

A lot of risk penalty cases
XTO is very, very active
24633, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, amend, create three overlapping 3200-acre units; multiple wells, Mountrail
24634, EOG, temporary authority to rework #16986 as a water injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24635, EOG,  temporary authority to rework #17170 as a combined production/ injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24640, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14 wells, McKenzie
24641, XTO, Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 6 wells; 3 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, McKenzie
24642, Basin Shale ND, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 8 wells, McKenzie
24643, Hellervik Oilfield, certifying and/or approving the "Hellervik Oil Conditioning Unit" as an alternative method of oil conditioning,
24658, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, i) ten wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units (120 wells); ii) 2 wells each on 16 overlapping 2560-acre units (32 wells); McKenzie, Dunn (120 + 32 = 152 wells)
24659, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on each of 19 1280-acre units (228 wells)
24660, XTO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, i) 12 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) 12 wells on each of 7 1280-acre units (84 wells); iii) 2 wells on each of 9 overlapping 2560-acre units (18 wells), Dunn (12 + 84 + 18 = 114 wells)
24681, Enerplus, Antelope-Bakken, five wells on an existing 320-acre unit; 10 wells a 640-acre units; 10 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie (5+10+10 = 25 wells)

Friday, November 20, 2015

All continued cases

******************************************

Full Summary

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 (9 pages)

Mostly "continued" cases
24597, Sequel, North Branch-Bakken, redefine field limits, McKenzie
24598, Sequel, Snowcover-Bakken, redefine field limits, McKenzie
24599, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well; authorize 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 12 wells
24600, HRC, Eagle Nest-Bakken, amend, open a new lateral from an existing lateral, #27415, Dunn,
24601, Petro-Hunt, single well exception, whipstock set in the casing, McKenzie
24602, OXY USA, flaring, Dunn
24603, OXY USA, flaring, Dunn
24604, QEP, Grail-Bakken, setback rules, McKenzie
24605, BR, Blue Buttes-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 1 well, McKenzie
24606, Gadeco, Epping-Bakken, authorizing sale of oil produced from one of its wells there; Williams
24607, Secure Energy treating plant, Williams
24608, Secure Energy treating plant, McKenzie
24609, Secure Energy treating plant, Mountrail
24610, Clean Energy treating plant, McKenzie
24611, Oasis, SWD, Williams
24612, White Owl, SWD, McKenize
24613, White Owl, SWD, Mountrail
24614, Hess, pooling
24615, Hess, pooling
24616, Hess, pooling
24617, Hess, pooling
24618, Hess, pooling
24619, Hess, pooling
24620, Hess, pooling
24621, Hess, pooling
24622, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, amend, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail, 16 wells
24623, Hess, commingling
24624, Petro-Hunt, pooling
24625, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
24626, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
24627, BR, Dimmick Lake-Bakken, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
24628, QEP, pooling

Thursday, November 19, 2015 (13 pages)

A lot of risk penalty cases
XTO is very, very active
24629, Whiting, Springbrook-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, Williams
24630, Oasis, et al, Pronghorn-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, McKenzie
24631, CLR, others, Patent Gate-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine, McKenzie
24632, Statoil, Sakakawea-Bakken, redefine, McKenzie
24633, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, amend, create three overlapping 3200-acre units; multiple wells, Mountrail
24634, EOG, temporary authority to rework #16986 as a water injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24635, EOG,  temporary authority to rework #17170 as a combined production/ injection well to test the feasibility of water flooding the reservoir, Mountrail
24636, Liberty Resources, Temple and/or Northwest McGregor-Bakken, establish i) an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 1 well; ii) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 2 wells; Williams
24637, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, setback changes, Dunn
24638, XTO, West Capa and Grinnell-Bakken, setback changes, Williams
24639, XTO, Siverston-Bakken, setback changes, McKenzie
24640, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14 wells, McKenzie
24641, XTO, Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 6 wells; 3 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, McKenzie
24642, Basin Shale ND, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 8 wells, McKenzie
24643, Hellervik Oilfield, certifying and/or approving the "Hellervik Oil Conditioning Unit" as an alternative method of oil conditioning,
24644, TD Services treatment plant, throughout the state of ND
24645, Clean Fluid mobile treatment plants, throughout the state of ND
24646, Newfield, pooling
24647, XTO, pooling
24648, XTO, pooling
24649, XTO, pooling
24650, XTO, pooling
24651, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24652, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24653, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24654, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24655, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24656, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24657, XTO, risk penalty legalese, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn
24658, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, i) ten wells on each of 12 existing 1280-acre units (120 wells); ii) 2 wells each on 16 overlapping 2560-acre units (32 wells); McKenzie, Dunn (120 + 32 = 152 wells)
24659, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on each of 19 1280-acre units (228 wells)
24660, XTO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, i) 12 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) 12 wells on each of 7 1280-acre units (84 wells); iii) 2 wells on each of 9 overlapping 2560-acre units (18 wells), Dunn (12 + 84 + 18 = 114 wells)
24661, WPX, pooling,
24662, WPX, pooling,
24663, WPX, pooling,
24664, WPX, pooling,
24665, WPX, pooling,
24666, WPX, pooling,
24667, WPX, pooling,
24668, WPX, pooling,
24669, WPX, pooling,
24670, CLR, pooling,
24671, CLR, pooling,
24672, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24673, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24674, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24675, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Sanish-Bakken, Mountrail
24676, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24677, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24678, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24679, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Little Knife-Bakken, Mountrail
24680, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese, Robinson Lake-Bakken, Mountrail
24681, Enerplus, Antelope-Bakken, five wells on an existing 320-acre unit; 10 wells a 640-acre units; 10 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie (5+10+10 = 25 wells)
24682, Statoil, SWD, Banks, McKenzie

Friday, November 20, 2015

All continued cases

WSJ Reports Occidental Will Leave The Bakken Oil Fields -- October 29, 2015

This is old news; it was in The Wall Street Journal today -- Occidental to leave Bakken oil fields. I'm posting it / linking it for archives, but I don't see much news in the article. OXY never did "crack the Bakken code." Some cherry-picking / selected examples of recent wells after eight years of practice in the Bakken:

• 26782, 53, OXY USA, Shuck 3-33-28H-144-97, Little Knife, t12/14; cum 57K 8/15;
• 28164,108, OXY USA, Federal Bud 4-29-32H-143-96, Fayette, t11/14; cum 68K 8/15;
• 28163, 94, OXY USA, Federal Bud 3-29-32H-143-96, Fayette, t11/14; cum 53K 8/15;
• 28581, 226, OXY USA, State 4-21-16H-143-96, Fayette, t3/15; cum 34K 8/15;
• 28759, 854, OXY USA, Raphael Stroh 3-13-24H-143-97, Fayette, t2/15; cum 68K 8/15;
• 28758, 963, OXY USA, Raphael Stroh 4-13-24H-143-97, Fayette, t2/15; cum 63K 8/15;
• 28757, 633, OXY USA, Kenneth Stroh 4-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet, t2/15; cum 74K 8/15;
• 28582, 438, OXY USA, Schneider 2-28-33H-143-96, Fayette, t2/15; cum 40K 8/15;
• 28583, 661, OXY USA, Schneider 3-28-33H-143-96, Fayette, t2/15; cum 61K 8/15;
• 26674, 80, OXY USA, State Anderson 2-3-25H-143-97, Little Knife, producing, appears to be a typical OXY USA well, t9/14 cum; 47K 8/15;
• 27543, 50 (no typo), OXY USA, John Kinne 2-27-34H-142-98, Snow, t8/14; cum 35K 8/15;

Elvis Has Left The Building

Random Update Of BR's Hammerhead Wells In Sand Creek Oil Field, The Bakken, North Dakota -- October 29, 2015

BR's Hammerhead wells in Sand Creek Oil Field, section 26-153-97. See original post. 

28778, 1,483, Hammerhead 11-26MBH, Sand Creek, t5/15; cum 28K 8/15;
28779, 1,443, Hammerhead 11-26TFH, Sand Creek, t6/15; cum 15K 8/15;
28780, 1,603, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek, t6/15; cum 27K 8/15;

28781, 1,080, Hammerhead 31-26TFH, Sand Creek, t5/15; cum 23K 8/15;
28782, 1,488, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t5/15; cum 27K 8/15;
28783, 1,512, Hammerhead 21-26TFH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t6/15; cum 26K 8/15;

20812, 1,884, Hammerhead 31-26MBH, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.2 million lbs, t4/12; cum 355K 8/15;

28784, 1,200, Hammerhead 41-26TFH, Sand Creek, 35 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t4/15; cum 23K 8/15; 

**************************************

Production Profiles For The First Six Months

28778, 1,483, Hammerhead 11-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	22	13374	13307	6042	26982	26927	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	25	14162	14162	16548	28234	0	28172
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28779, 1,443, Hammerhead 11-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	3	68	68	366	282	275	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	14	14497	14497	15267	37419	20726	16658
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28780, 1,603, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	12457	12395	7554	25369	25292	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	0	0	0	77	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	26	13994	13994	8719	31261	12562	18635
BAKKEN	5-2015	1	286	286	215	518	0	516
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

28781, 1,080, Hammerhead 31-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	11323	11267	9038	25890	25821	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	10766	10810	21104	22599	0	22562
BAKKEN	4-2015	3	497	453	3305	1798	0	1791

28782, 1,488, Hammerhead 21-26MBH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	14191	14121	28	55142	55142	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	5	3158	3327	5	11485	6755	4730
BAKKEN	5-2015	17	9696	9527	17	22804	5005	17799

28783, 1,512, Hammerhead 21-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	12026	11967	9564	24480	24158	252
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	11	11143	11143	16500	30101	8654	21419
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	2704	2704	13436	7463	0	7426

20812, 1,884, Hammerhead 31-26MBH, Sand Creek:

BAKKEN	9-2012	14	7876	7611	2535	12130	3178	8952
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	20759	20845	6922	33485	26646	6839
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	22680	22605	7002	37838	30951	6887
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	21819	21694	6716	40520	28347	12099
BAKKEN	5-2012	29	9538	9382	3777	16215	0	16143
BAKKEN	4-2012	21	4041	3941	12795	11149	0	11096

28784, 1,200, Hammerhead 41-26TFH, Sand Creek:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2015	28	14222	14152	7317	32774	32704	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	10	8622	8688	9641	18593	0	18568
BAKKEN	3-2015	1	67	0	1765	855	0	852

"They" Must Be Reading The Blog -- October 29, 2015

Just a couple of days ago I suggested that we are witnessing a new phenomenon in the United States: the "establishment" of non-government strategic petroleum reserves.

Now, CNBC has brought up the same issue, asking whether we need the SPR any more. There is so much craziness in the article.

The lede suggests that the government plans to sell a lot of oil out of the SPR. In fact, they will sell on an annual basis, 5 million bbls, starting in 2018. North Dakota has choked back oil production and is producing 5 million bbls every five days; unfettered, in a national emergency, North Dakota could easily produce 5 million bbls every two days. And that's just the Bakken. The Permian is bigger and the Eagle Ford is probably bigger.

Then, the article suggests that the SPR oil sale will raise huge amounts of money to fund the government. In fact, we are talking maybe $2 billion. (5 million bbls x $50 = $250 million annually).

Whether it's $2 billion or a fraction of that, both are rounding errors when it comes to the US budget, deficit, and debt.

Then this from an analyst who apparently has never heard of the Bakken:

McNally says that in addition to the sales already planned, the government has been eyeing the SPR to fund another government project — highway funding and transportation.

"If this turns into a feeding frenzy and we sell down our entire reserve, that's where it could become a market issue," McNally said. "We better be sure we'll be at peace, and I wouldn't make that bet." 

According to the article, the SPR stands at slightly less than 500 million bbls. North Dakota produces over 400 million bbls as it is right now, and unfettered could easily double that. 

Another analyst has it partly right:

The barrels set to be sold are "hardly even a blip on the screen," he said. "Down the road it will have an impact [on oil prices], but not as much as other macro elements." 

But this is where he is wrong: bringing 14,000 additional bbls to market each day -- in a market that uses 9 million bbls daily -- will have no effect on price whatsoever. 

The article completely missed the opportunity to talk about the amount of oil being held back in North Dakota and why it is being held back.

By the way, there have now been two stories in the past week that suggests there is a relative shortage of light crude oil for refiners, particularly for refiners on the East Coast. One story was in the Wall Street Journal; the other story was posted by RBN Energy.

The North American Energy Revolution -- October 29, 2015

Before we get to the "main story," here's the weekly natural gas story and gasoline demand data:

Natural gas fill (a dynamic link): 63. In the East Region, stocks were 14 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 33 Bcf.

Gasoline demand (a dynamic link): significant upturn, consistent with historical trends; most recent reporting period, 9.343 million bbls vs 9.157 million bbls one week early and 8.867 million bbls one year earlier. The addiction to crude oil is back, driven by low-priced gasoline.

Now back to the main story.

*****************************

North American Oil Revolution

Propane

If there's any doubt in anyone's mind that we are witnessing a North American energy revolution, all one has to do is look at this graphic, and look that our propane exports to even Russia are increasing significantly:

But look at what is going on in the far east.

This is a "big story."

******************************* 

Every Child Left Behind

Speaking of big stories, this is perhaps the saddest story of the week. This is pathetic. This is criminal. This is beyond belief. Should the NEA be brought up on RICO charges? The only way one gets to 96% failure in education is through a concerted, conspiratorial effort. CNS is reporting (becasue mainstream media won't): in the Detroit Public Shool system, nearly every student fails grade-level reading, math:

In the Detroit public school district, 96 percent of eighth graders are not proficient in mathematics and 93 percent are not proficient in reading.

That is according to the results of the 2015 National Assessment of Educational Progress tests published by the Department of Education’s National Center for Educational Statistics.

Only 4 percent of Detroit public school eighth graders are proficient or better in math and only 7 percent in reading. This is despite the fact that in the 2011-2012 school year—the latest for which the Department of Education has reported the financial data—the Detroit public schools had “total expenditures” of $18,361 per student and “current expenditures” of $13,330 per student.

And that's why President Obama wants to get rid of testing. The truth is very, very inconvenient.  President Obama was provided this data last week; on Saturday, President Obama called for less testing.

State expenditure per student (most recent data from 2011 - 2012):

• California: $58,000
• Iowa: $5,000
• Massachusetts: $14,000
• Michigan: $16,000 (Detroit is in Michigan)
• Minnesota: $9,000
• Mississippi: $4,000
• New York: $52,000
• North Dakota: $1,000
• South Dakota: $1,100 
• Pennsylvania: $23,000

I'm not sure if "free college education" is where our attention needs to be in the 2016 presidential race.

*****************************

Notes For The Granddaughters

I am now re-reading Edmund Wilson's Memoirs of Hecate County. I am finally ready to read this book. I've tried reading it twice before, giving up both times.

The first story was "The Man Who Shot Snapping Turtles." Very, very creepy and done the right way, it would be an incredibly good Halloween story.

The second story was a very long short story, "Ellen Terhune." It was a "back to the future story," every bit as good as any Stephen King novel. It was perhaps better, being told in 40 pages vs a 400-page Stephen King ghost story.

The stories are clearly based on personalities Edmund Wilson knew.

Words I've added to the list of works for the oldest granddaughter to add to her list of words to learn (for all I know, she already knows some of these) (page number in parentheses:

• sententious (33)
• dolorous (34)
• vicarious (35)
• Canova Hebe (35)
• plangency (51)
• Gorgon-like (52)

Kemper County Clean Coal Power Plant Will Cost Another $159 Million -- October 29, 2015

Regular readers know my fascination with this story.

Past posts:

• October 16, 2015
• October 2, 2015
• May 23, 2015
• October 28, 2014 
• September 13, 2014
• This story is now tracked here.
  

Here it is again, being reported by Penn Energy:

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — Further delays and other problems mean Mississippi Power Co.'s Kemper County power plant is likely to cost another $159 million, the company announced Tuesday.

The unit of Atlanta-based Southern Co. made the disclosure on the eve of the parent company reporting quarterly earnings Wednesday.

The total cost of the plant is now $6.4 billion.

Mississippi Power says it will absorb at least $110 million in increases. But the company's 186,000 customers could have to pay another $49.4 million to cover interest, regulatory costs and legal fees if the Mississippi Public Service Commission eventually approves. That decision likely won't come until sometime next year.

Customers have resumed paying 18 percent higher rates for Kemper after Mississippi regulators granted an emergency rate increase when Mississippi Power said it was running out of money. That came after Kemper opponent and Southern District Democratic PSC candidate Thomas Blanton won an appeal to the state Supreme Court to overturn an earlier 18 percent rate increase and force $377 million in refunds. Mississippi Power is in the process of disbursing those refunds.

The plant and associated lignite coal mine were originally supposed to cost $2.8 billion at most, but customers could pay almost $4.2 billion if the Mississippi Public Service Commission approves. The utility is absorbing more than $2 billion in overruns.

Mississippi Power spokesman Jeff Shepard said that much of the cost increase came from last month's announcement that the plant wouldn't go into full operation until as late as June 30. He said that the company needs to spend more to fix problems and keep workers on hand during that extended startup phase.

$2 billion, $4 billion, $6 billion, can I get $8 billion?

The Auctioneer Song, Leroy Vandyke

October 29, 2015

Jack Kemp's weekly energy tweets:

• Total US crude and product stocks fell -3.7 million bbls last week, the largest one-week decline in three months
• US refineries have started to come back from the fall turnaround season and ramp up processing
• US crude and product stocks all well above the 10-year range, except for distillate fuel stocks which are smack dab in the middle and trending down
• US refineries pass midpoint of turnaround season; crude stocks rise more slowly; refined fuel stocks draw strongly 

From the EIA:

US propane exports surging --

 ********************************

The Silly Season In Massachusetts 
Call It Their "Guilt Tax" 
The State Religion Folks Feel Guilty For Not Having Any Wind Power So They Impose A Carbon Tax To Make Them Feel Good

This will be good for the state: Massachusetts is considering a state-wide price on carbon.

Barrett laid out his plan in Senate Bill S.1747, one of two carbon price options before the legislature. Massachusetts joins five other states—Connecticut, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington—with proposed legislation exploring this option for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Although the idea of a carbon price is not new, it is increasingly seen as a key climate solution in the leadup to the U.N. climate talks in Paris in December.

Six major oil and gas companies, including BP, Shell and Statoil, have said they support carbon pricing. In recent weeks, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel and Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg voiced support for a global price on carbon. So have the heads of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, along with many global leaders in business and politics.

It is very important to note where BP, Shell, and Statoil are headquartered when looking at this.

The really "funny" thing about all this is that if the truth be told, the folks in Boston would love slightly warmer winters. I know; I was there for four winters. Shoveling.

Wind power by state, Massachusetts:

• installed wind power: 107 MW (essentially zero in the big scheme of things)
• state ranking: 34th
• under construction 8 MW (LOL)
• number of wind turbines: 88 (107/88 = 1.2 MW/wind turbine = mom-and-pop operations
• Cape Wind throttled

The carbon tax will help those in Massachusetts who feel guilty. 

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The Silly Season 

For Algore's Contingency, It's Year-Round

I may have to add a new segment to the blog. I may have to steal something from Hillary Clinton. One of her favorite sayings is "this is the silly season" whenever she is personally attacked, and the attack actually happens to be accurate.

With the craziness coming out of the Algore contingency, we may have to add the "Algore silly season." It begins, of course, with the Algore assertion that rising CO2 levels might be making "us" less smart, or as Algore would say: dumb and dumber.

Now, today, the Washington Times is reporting that the US Energy Department says pumpkins cause climate change. The link is still loading; so slow I may not see it today.

US Economy Comes To A Screeching Halt; GDP Collapses -- Reuters -- October 29, 2015

GDP, Reuters is reporting --

U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the third quarter as businesses cut back on restocking warehouses to work off an inventory glut, but solid domestic demand could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate after expanding at a 3.9 percent clip in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. 

The spin comes in the next paragraph:

The inventory drag, however, is likely to be temporary and economists expect growth to pick up in the fourth quarter given strong domestic fundamentals.

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Jobs 

Speaking of spin: "applications barely rise." Monthly average falls to 42-year low.

The numbers:

• actual: 260K
• consensus: 263K
• previous: 259K 

From another source with a lot of blog advertising:

Today's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims was slightly better than the forecast of 263K.

The four-week moving average is at 259,250, down from last week's 263,250, is at a new low last seen in 1973.

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ObamaCare

ObamaCare stories coming out fast and furious as:

• open season begins
• becomes clear that things are not going well
• even President Obama is defunding the ObamaCare co-ops, something the GOP could not do (previously reported); nearly half (eventually, "more than half") of the co-ops will shut down (this was Big Health's plan all along)

By the way, it's not hard to connect these dots:

• President Obama defunds the healthcare co-ops
• the healthcare co-ops collapse
• Big Health moves in, consolidates
• Aetna 3Q15 earnings beat forecasts; increase guidance

Minnesotans Keystoning The Sandpiper Provide Bakken Twist -- RBN Energy -- October 29, 2015

Perhaps the biggest news story today will have greatest impact on the granddaughters: China relaxes its one-child policy. Chinese families will now be allowed to have two children. So very many story lines here.

Active rigs:

	10/29/2015	10/29/2014	10/29/2013	10/29/2012	10/29/2011
Active Rigs	69	190	182	183	200

RBN Energy: Enbridge Montreal Line Reversal Likely to Squeeze Bakken Crude Supply.

Delays to the Enbridge Sandpiper project bringing greater volumes of Bakken crude onto the Enbridge Mainline system at Superior, WS threaten to limit the supply of crude to feed refineries in Quebec when Enbridge’s Line 9B reversal project comes online in November 2015. The market impact could push crude prices higher in North Dakota.

Today we discuss the crude supply picture and possible impact when Line 9B opens up.
In Episode 1 we explained the somewhat tortuous path that crude oil has to travel to get to the origin of Enbridge’s Line 9B at Westwood, Ontario – via Line 5 that runs across the top of Lake Michigan or via Lines 78 and 6B that deliver crude northeast from Flanagan, IL to Sarnia, Ontario.

The predominantly light crude oil that Line 9B will deliver to refineries in Quebec Province was expected to mostly come from the North Dakota Williston Basin (Bakken) as well as some synthetic light crude processed from oil sands bitumen in Alberta. We pointed out that Enbridge plans to deliver light crude to Line 9B appear to rely on additional Bakken crude volumes that will flow onto their system from North Dakota at Superior, WS once the 225 Mb/d Sandpiper pipeline comes online in 2017. However, delays to Sandpiper (originally expected online early in 2016) mean that committed shippers on Line 9B may initially struggle to source adequate supplies to meet their take or pay arrangements with Enbridge.   

In the paragraphs below, we consider the existing crude diet of the refineries that Line 9B will feed in Quebec and then assess the market impact of limited crude supply before Sandpiper comes online.

The first of the two Quebec refineries that the Line 9B reversal is primarily designed to feed is the 137 Mb/d Suncor plant in Montreal. This refinery currently runs on a diet of crude supplied from four sources according to the company’s 2014 financial statements. The first source is rail – Suncor has a 36 Mb/d rail unloading terminal at the refinery that received an average of 33 Mb/d in 2014 (described as non-proprietary inland crude – likely light Bakken crude from North Dakota or Saskatchewan). The second source is East Coast light conventional Canadian crude  - probably from offshore Newfoundland production fields (23 Mb/d). Next came 79 Mb/d of “other light conventional crude” that is likely imported to Montreal either from the East Coast by tanker along the St. Lawrence River or by pipeline on the Portland-Montreal pipeline (PMPL – more on this route and the St. Lawrence in a minute).

The fourth source of crude for the Montreal refinery is about 21 Mb/d of heavy and sour conventional crude that is likely also imported from the East Coast or via the PMPL. Suncor will be able to continue using any of these routes to source crude after Line 9B opens but expects to eliminate imports – meaning they wish to source as much as 100 Mb/d from the new pipeline.

 Much, much more at the link.

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Earnings Today

COP

• ConocoPhillips: Q3 EPS of -$0.38 in-line.
• Revenue of $16.05B (+24.2% Y/Y) beats by $7.94B. (this may be an error; was not in the corrected Seeking Alpha update)
• Press release here.  

BXLT

• AP story here. 
• On a per-share basis, the Deerfield, Illinois-based company said it had net income of 45 cents. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were 56 cents per share.
• The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 48 cents per share.

CRR

• AP story here.
• On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had a loss of 60 cents. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 35 cents per share.
• The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 63 cents per share.

EPD

• misses by 2 cents
• misses on revenues

MPC

• refiner profits jump 40%, Reuters 
• profit of $1.76 per share
• results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.80 per share
• revenue of $18.76 billion in the period, topping Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $18.19 billion 

XEL

• misses by 4 cents

UPL

• press release here
• a loss of 2 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 21 cents per share
•  results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 18 cents per share

FSLR

• forecast $1.55; hits record revenue on sale of massive power plant; shares up 13%; revenues beat; raises 2015 guidance;

SCTY

• forecast a loss of $1.95; shares collapse; fall 18% after hours; earnings miss; a loss of $2.10/share; 

FLS

• forecast 79 cents; beats; 81 cents;

SBUX

• forecast 43 cents; 
• profit jumped 11% in the third quarter driven by growing sales at its U.S. cafes, though it projected earnings for the current period that came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.
• global same-store sales rose 8% in the latest quarter, above Consensus Metrix analysts’ expectations for an increase of 6.9%
• same-store sales in the Americas segment grew 8%—driven by a 9% jump in the U.S.—also exceeding analysts’ forecasts.

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Time To Slash

Now that Trump/Carson forced the debates from three hours to two hours, it is now time to limit the number of those on stage from 10 to 5.

We still have these folks on stage (poll results following the debate)

• Huckabee: 0.65% (are you kidding?)
• Bush: 1.24%
• Christie: 2.76%
• Fiorina: 2.8%
• Paul: 3.32%

The only thing Huckabee and Christie add to this is "comic relief"; I have no idea what any of the other five add; time to slash.
Of course several others do not much better, including Carson at 4.46%.
Trump: almost 50%