Wednesday, September 21, 2022

No New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; WTI Trending Toward $80-Floor -- September 21, 2022

Active rigs: 48. Note the gradual increase over the past couple of months.

WTI: $82.87. If WTI drops below $80, there are folks who suggest "freefall" to $60.

Natural gas: $7.719.

No new permits.

Eight permits renewed:

  • CLR (5): two Miles permits and three Kennedy permits, all in McKenzie County, same pad, I believe;
  • MRO (3): permits for an Arnew well, an Erbe well, and an Archie well, all in Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 38340, 2,046, Enerplus, Backhand 149-92-31C-30H, Heart Butte, no production data provided;
  • The Enerplus "Tennis" pad is tracked here
  • I believe the following well is the parent well; it is on line and I see no evidence of any significant jump in production; it was off line for only a few days from late June, 2021, to late August, 2021, about sixty days. This well is a "steady Eddy" but has never shown much monthly production:
    • 22240, 603, Enerplus, Net (as in "tennis net") 149-92-30B-31H, Heart Butte, t7/12; cum 367K 7/22;

*********************************
Meanwhile

Oil and the Fed: oil traders hate "uncertainty," and that's what they got in "the Fed" statement, a huge amount of "uncertainty." 

But there's one thing oil traders hate even more than "uncertainty," and that's when they get the feeling that no one knows what's going on. And listening to "the Fed" summary statement today, one certainly gets the feeling no one knows what's going on.

Brussels: thousands take to the streets protesting soaring energy prices; this will make Covid-19 demonstrations look like a cakewalk as they say.

Russia-China: Gazprom will suspend pipeline natural gas deliveries to China for one week. 

This was announced about the same time Putin announced mobilization of 300,000 troops for the Ukraine war, but this was apparently scheduled maintenance, September 22, 2022 - September 29, 2022. 

The pipeline: Power of Siberia; went into operation in 2019, after eight years of construction. Timing is interesting, but apparently routine:  

Under the sales and purchase agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for gas supply via the route, preventive maintenance of the equipment along the pipeline is carried out twice a year, once in the spring and once in the autumn, according to Gazprom.

The XTO Teddy Federal Wells

Locator: 10010TEDDY. 

Updates

May 31, 2024: production updates here. Some huge, huge production numbers. Wells are all coming offline -- no obvious explanation.

March 24, 2024: early production.

  • 35211, 1,500, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, Dunn County; of note, 27,362 over 11 days extrapolates to 74,624 bbls.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2024112736227611200135116050505549
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-20234249099586520652

********************************
The Wells

The wells:

  • 35211, 1,500, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, Dunn County, went off line 1/24; and remains off line; 3/24; t12/23; cum 114K 1/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-20234249099586520652
  • 35217, 1,977, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, Dunn County; off line 3/24; t1/24; cum 136K 2/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202300420000
BAKKEN11-202331561149235116401164
  • 35218, 3,156, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, Dunn County; 20 southeast of Watford City; sited in section 5-148-97; a six-well pad; middle Bakken; sections  34, 27, and 23-149-97; three-section-long horizontal; 1920-acre drilling unit; 20.5 total drilling days; t12/23; one month of produciton, and then came off line; t12/23; cum 127K 12/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331108340108634534331693411681181040
BAKKEN11-2023370705704534993148820478
BAKKEN10-20235550095078590859
  • 35219, 714, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, Dunn County; t1/24; cum 139K 2/24; off line 3/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202331822438209862511140361139347862
BAKKEN11-2023740083171666456605126525
BAKKEN10-2023424909958652065
  • 35216, AB/SI, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, npd,
  • 35215, IA/SI-->SI/A, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5EXH, North Fork, 1/24; cum 114K 2/24; now offline; 
  • 19908, IA/1,308, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5, North Fork, t8/11; cum 321K 4/23; offline; remains off line, 3/24;
    BAKKEN6-20230000000
    BAKKEN5-20230000000
    BAKKEN4-2023132809941287096500
    BAKKEN3-20233110701021228212218350
    BAKKEN2-20232810351029427210918210
    BAKKEN1-20233110481037568245521190
    BAKKEN12-20223112031117554248721520
    BAKKEN11-20223012491269466264423180

February 21, 2024: the maps --




February 16, 2024: production being reported.

Original Post

See this post.

The wells:

  • the XTO Teddy Federal wells are extended long laterals (three sections) and they run south-to-north, paralleling the Arlene Federal wells, running north-to-south (see below). 
  • The Teddy Federal wells are not yet showing any production data (at least of the ones I checked), with one exception (September 21, 2022)
  • 19908, 1,308, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5, North Fork, t8/11; cum 311K 7/22; this well is a "standard" two-section well; not an extended lateral (three-section); it has also not been off line recently suggesting the newer Terry Federal wells on that same pad have not yet been fracked.

The graphics:


The wells:

  • 35215 SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5EXH, North Fork, no production reported;
  • 19908, 1,308, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5, North Fork, t8/11; cum 311K 7/22; offline from 8/18 to 6/20;
  • 35216 SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, no production reported;
  • 35217 SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5F, North Fork, no production reported;
  • 35211 SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5H, North Fork, no production reported;
  • 35218, SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5D, North Fork, no production reported;
  • 35219 SI/NC, XTO Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, North Fork, no production reported;

Recent production:

  • 19908:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223113601234618311029340
BAKKEN6-20223013541440639302428560
BAKKEN5-20223114941459558310929350
BAKKEN4-20222713401304467233321990
BAKKEN3-20223115831675991312627930
BAKKEN2-20222817552160606288225800
BAKKEN1-2022241037925396154913630
BAKKEN12-20213112551440490294626310
BAKKEN11-20213014301334553343531090
BAKKEN10-20213114711477596392535880

Initial production:

BAKKEN3-201231615962181672987993520
BAKKEN2-201229619362881617974992560
BAKKEN1-20123171457523187511117105900
BAKKEN12-20113177167398185212000114730
BAKKEN11-20113084188774233712616121060
BAKKEN10-20113097419888265414000138450
BAKKEN9-2011189128842527381047979412438
BAKKEN8-2011281440213970596113093012943

Update Of The XTO Arlene Federal Wells -- September 21, 2022

Memo to self:

  • the XTO Teddy Federal wells are extended long laterals (three sections) and they run south-to-north, paralleling the Arlene Federal wells (see below). The Teddy Federal wells are not yet showing any production data (at least of the ones I checked), with one exception:
  • 19908, 1,308, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5, North Fork, t8/11; cum 311K 7/22; this well is a "standard) two-section well; not an extended lateral (three section); it has also not been off line recently suggesting the newer Terry Federal wells on that same pad have not yet been fracked.

The XTO Arlene Federal wells are tracked here.

I posted initial results last month. A reader suggested I take another look now that we've had a full month of production for these wells. The reader says this is the highest production they've seen in this area in all the years of production.

So, here is a production update: 

  • 34313, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23B:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223153522536393348195635955550
BAKKEN6-20221318967185621555934449302874140
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20222008331880188
  • 34314, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23F:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022315838458578369591087041086130
BAKKEN6-20221423609233181841538226336234578
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20221218014921570157

34315, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23C:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022315908959328353631110871109940
BAKKEN6-20221425237255731713843264380465190
BAKKEN5-20222463042056920692
BAKKEN4-20221431022645120512
  • 34316, SI/IA, Arlene Federal 44X-23G:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022316331963526510391059321058440
BAKKEN6-20221425171251431824939365346314709
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20222520011879390939
  • 34317, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23D, North Fork, t--; no production reported; 
  • 34318, SI/IA, Arlene Federal 44X-23H:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20220090000
BAKKEN6-2022004270000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20226437027119150915

Bakken DUCs -- September 21, 2022

Data provided by a reader, thank you.

Month/Year









Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUCs

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-15

197

193

736

Feb-15

230

151

815

Mar-15

182

170

827

Apr-15

142

127

842

May-15

124

139

827

Jun-15

110

135

802

Jul-15

102

124

780

Aug-15

111

101

790

Sep-15

99

92

797

Oct-15

118

84

831

Nov-15

100

89

842

Dec-15

98

78

862

Jan-16

71

80

853

Feb-16

61

41

873

Mar-16

68

45

896

Apr-16

43

39

900

May-16

46

59

887

Jun-16

42

54

875

Jul-16

45

56

864

Aug-16

53

82

835

Sep-16

49

66

818

Oct-16

59

85

792

Nov-16

61

86

767

Dec-16

53

49

771

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

122

818

Aug-19

122

144

796

Sep-19

110

88

818

Oct-19

116

108

826

Nov-19

96

88

834

Dec-19

94

86

842

Jan-20

99

98

843

Feb-20

94

100

837

Mar-20

94

108

823

Apr-20

69

33

859

May-20

33

14

878

Jun-20

18

11

885

Jul-20

18

22

881

Aug-20

19

27

873

Sep-20

18

51

840

Oct-20

19

41

818

Nov-20

20

31

807

Dec-20

20

50

777

Jan-21

20

41

756

Feb-21

19

24

751

Mar-21

25

45

731

Apr-21

27

46

712

May-21

29

62

679

Jun-21

31

33

677

Jul-21

32

61

648

Aug-21

39

69

618

Sep-21

42

81

579

Oct-21

43

82

540

Nov-21

46

78

508

Dec-21

52

75

485

Jan-22

53

75

463

Feb-22

64

75

452

Mar-22

66

76

442

Apr-22

58

69

431

May-22

75

76

430

Jun-22

75

77

428

Jul-22

75

77

426

Aug-22

76

77

425