Showing posts with label Bakken_Boom_Goes_Bust. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bakken_Boom_Goes_Bust. Show all posts

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Wow, We Talked About This Two Years Ago -- Or Whenever It Was -- Folks Overpaid To Get Into The Permian -- November 12, 2020

From SeekingAlpha:

Summary:

  • Drilling rights in the Permian Basin averaged $24K/acre in recent deals, down 67% from 2018, and the average price across all U.S. shale has plummeted to ~$5K/acre from $17K two years ago, Rystad Energy reports. 
  • The plunge in acreage prices is a sign of the crisis facing U.S. oil and gas explorers, who are trying to survive a pandemic-driven decline in crude demand after more than a decade of debt-fueled production growth. 
  • In ConocoPhillips' proposed $9.7B purchase of Concho Resources, Concho's drilling rights were valued at $10,471/acre compared with $75,504/acre for Concho's 2018 acquisition of RSP Permian, according to Bloomberg. 
  • Industry-wide costs for drilling and completing wells will probably drop as much as 5% next year because of consolidation, increased standardization and lower service costs, Rystad says.

5%? That's a rounding era. Means nothing. It's that third bullet that's staggering.

Flashback: December 3, 2018 -- the various Bakken periods. 

Bakken 2.0: 

  • October 19, 2016: the beginning of Bakken 2.0
    • the event that triggered the Bakken 2.0 designation: the SM Energy announcement that it was selling some Bakken acreage/assets to Oasis
    • it appears Permian Shale 2.0 began with the WPX, Noble, and XOM announcements regarding acquisitions in the Permian -- late 2016/early 2017

From the outside, from an investment point of view, operators started getting interested in unconventional oil in the Permian in late October, 2016. 

From my perspective, and I talked about it often on the back in 2017 - 2018, operators really overpaid to get into the Bakken. Now we have a contributor over at SeekingAlpha showing just how much they overpaid.  

But look at that: Concho's drilling rights were valued at $10,471/acre compared with $75,504/acre for Concho's 2018 acquisition of RSP Permian.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Back To Man-Camps In Boomtown, USA? -- And East Coast Folks Said The Boom Was Over -- April 10, 2018

This link sent to me by a reader; quite a story.  Completely unexpected. My headline is a bit of hyperbole; the housing shortage this time around is a lot different than the kind of housing shortage Williston had in the early years of the boom. 

From nationalmortgagenews.com: Williston housing shortage could have regional repercussions, by Jessica Holdman, The Bismarck Tribune, April 10, 2018 --
Williston Realtors sold more homes in the first quarter of the year than in any other previously — even outselling 2012 and 2014 boom levels.
Homes that changed hands in the quarter numbered 110 — about 30 a month — said Williston's Development Services Director Mark Schneider.
The North Dakota city is in the midst of a single-family housing shortage that promises only to get worse as oil and gas activity picks up for the season. And while Williston area homebuilders are encouraged by city response to local affordable housing needs, officials are still unsure how incoming workers might be housed through the summer.
Apartments and hotels are at 90% to 95% occupancy already, Schneider said. Williston Area Builders Association President Mike Dolbec, of Windsong Custom Homes, expects those units will be full within a couple months.
Twenty-five single-family homes are listed for sale in the $250,000 to $330,000 range and 24 in the $330,000 to $400,000 range, according to the Multiple Listing Service.
It takes three to four months to build a new home but the current inventory could be gone in two months.
A "task force" has formed to look for solutions. More from the article:
He said this is particularly important with high lot prices — about $65,000 on average in the city and about $70,000 for larger county lots — and higher costs for materials, such as the 40 percent increase for lumber over the past year.
North Dakota Job Service's Williston office has 2,000 job openings advertised. Each week of this school year, the Williston School District saw, on average, 19 new students. And a 2016 North Dakota State University study predicts 60 percent population growth in Williams County by 2029.
That's about 1,600 new people per year, meaning more than 500 homes needed annually if the prediction holds, according to Schneider. The city has 732 buildable lots, complete with sewer and water available, but that won't hold them through even next building season.

Of the homes in the $250,000 to $330,000 range, a price range Gorder said is most attainable for the majority of the young families who are looking, 15 are more than 50 years old and four have been on the market more than 50 days. Only eight are less than 50 years old. In the $330,000 to $400,000 range, six are older than 50 years, one has been on the market more than 100 days, six are still being constructed and 11 are less than 50 years old.
The End of the Line, The Traveling Wilburys

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

From The Wall Street Journal Today -- The Bakken -- June 8, 2016

Updates

Later, 8:26 p.m. Central Time: a new non-operated E&P company -- a new vulture -- W Energy Partners -- circling over the Bakken.
  
Original Post
 
The epicenter of America's oil bust is drawing buyers. Link here.
The vultures are descending on North Dakota.
Investors hoping for a bargain are buying up oil and gas wells from cash-strapped operators in the state’s Bakken Shale, a bet they will eventually be able to profit off one of the country’s hardest-hit oil plays. Hundreds of wells have changed hands or are in the process of being sold, state figures show, to a grab bag of fortune seekers ranging from industry experts to first-time wildcatters. They are picking up properties as more established producers scale back or shed assets to pay creditors.
Houston-based Lime Rock Resources, founded by a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker and an oil-industry veteran, bought more than 340 North Dakota wells from Occidental Petroleum Corp. in November. The firm says it has at least $1.6 billion in private-equity money to invest, a portion of which it has spent on the Bakken.
In another pairing of Wall Street and oil-patch veterans, NP Resources LLC bought 53 wells from Whiting Petroleum Corp. in December and is looking for more Bakken acreage.
These stories have been previously reported on the blog, see sidebar at the right. For example: NP/Whiting was posted here. Much more at the linked WSJ article.

*************************
Solar Energy? No, It's LED Energy

This is really quite interesting. From The Wall Street Journal today:
Inside the cavernous interior of a former Boston-area taxi depot—walls covered in graffiti, pools of water on the concrete floors—three gleaming green-and-white containers sit side by side. The steel boxes are former “reefers”—refrigerated shipping containers used to transport cold goods. Bone-chilling rain is falling outside, but inside the 320-square-foot boxes, it’s a relatively balmy 63 degrees, and the humid air is heavy with the earthy smell of greens. Filling each box are 256 neat vertical towers of plants, bathed in a noonday-intense pink light.

The crops being cultivated here—lettuce, herbs and other leafy greens—are not what we’ve come to expect from this kind of operation. But the company behind this agricultural innovation owes a large debt to America’s pot farmers. Freight Farms was founded in 2010, its existence predicated on a bet that LEDs would soon become efficient enough for farming as if the sun had disappeared—without breaking the bank. Co-founder Brad McNamara puts it this way: “Traditional research said, yeah, LEDs are good, but the more important research was that they were improving at a Moore’s-Law rate.” Moore’s Law, used to describe the exponential increase in computing power over the past 50 years, can be applied to LEDs thanks in part to the needs—and considerable resources—of marijuana growers.

In addition to 128 LED strips, each “farm” has a water circulation system, 8 gallon-size tanks of liquid fertilizer and a propane tank for producing supplemental CO2—all running on as little as 10 gallons of water and 80 kWh of energy per day. Under the right conditions, a grower can go from seeds to sellable produce within six weeks. According to data pooled by the company, an average Freight Farms box can produce 48,568 marketable mini-heads of lettuce a year—the growing power of two acres of farmland.

Freight Farms is part of a rapidly expanding field: Food and agricultural technology startups received $4.6 billion in investment in 2015, almost double the $2.36 billion that poured into the sector in 2014, according to a report from agriculture investment platform AgFunder. Companies like John Deere and Monsanto have long invested in new technology for conventional farming, but we’re now seeing a disruption of farming itself.

There are more than 60 Freight Farms containers installed in 22 states and two Canadian provinces, in climates ranging from the long winters of Ontario to the sweltering heat of Texas. In a development that surprised even the company’s founders, the containers are increasingly making their way onto traditional farms for supplemental income outside the growing season. But most are parked in the interstitial spaces of cities, from warehouses and underneath highway overpasses to alleyways behind the restaurants where their crops are served. The result is hyperlocal produce, which sometimes travels just a few feet from farm to table.
Later: I may have to link this website in the sidebar at the right -- not! With regard to CO2:
Plants use CO2 for growth. It is the essential building block for photosynthesis (along with light and water). Plants cannot grow without CO2. The current levels in the atmosphere are about 350 parts per million (PPM). It is theorized that millions of years ago, levels of CO2 were about 1,500 PPM. Throughout the years, plants have evolved in many ways-and in many ways have stayed the same. Knowing this can be advantageous for us all.

It seems that plants have not lost the ability to use up to 1,500 PPM of CO2. Plant growth can be accelerated by increasing the CO2 levels in your growing area.
Conversely, CO2 levels below 250 PPM have a detrimental effect on your plants. If you have six plants growing in your closet, and there is no ventilation, your plants can use the CO2 in a few hours. They then stop growing. You must, at a minimum, provide fresh air for your plants every hour or so. An even better way is to provide supplemental CO2 for your plants by using either a CO2 generator or bottled CO2. Any of these solutions will keep your plants growing at optimal rates.
It has been proven that you can increase your growth rates by up to 20 percent and size by up to 30 percent by providing supplemental CO2 at levels over 1,200 PPM. You should never go over 1,500 PPM, as this soon becomes toxic for the plants, and they tend to grow very stringy. 
I'm glad "they" explained that -- how plants "use" CO2, unlike humans who exhale CO2. There's probably a lot of folks using marijuana that did not know that. 

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

"Sure, There's Some Oil There, But Not Much"

 Updates

February 12, 2014: I want to post this story so it's in the archives, but I want to bury it deep in the blog so folks are unlikely to stumble across it unless they are specifically looking for it or come across through random surfing. Over at ZeroHedge, which I thought was a pretty good blog, posted a very poorly written guest column which appears to be nothing more than an advertisement to invest in gold and/or silver.  The lies, damned lies, and statistics are incredible in this article. In case the link is broken, it is an opinion that the Bakken boom is about to go bust, if it hasn't already. The article was posted November 17, 2013. It's a pretty bad post for ZeroHedge.

Original Post
Rigzone is reporting:
When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets in December, it is rumored that they may slash its oil production for the first time in five years, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The organization could reduce production by half a million barrels a day due to the surge in the North American shale boom.
OPEC's latest report, released last week, projected that demand for its crude will slide 300,000 barrels a day next year to 29.6 million barrels of oil per day, or about 2.6 percent less than the organization is currently producing.
"Yes, OPEC is 'concerned' about U.S./Canadian production increases in that while these [projected] volumes do not (yet) move into international markets, they displace oil that would have otherwise come here – thus the net available market for OPEC oil is a bit more competitive," Marcela Donadio, partner and Assurance Services Americas Oil and Gas Sector leader at Ernst & Young, told Rigzone.
I wonder if Snopes will ever update its page on the Bakken or whether Jane Nielsen will update her blog, the one in which she said this about the Bakken: "Don't believe the hype. Sure, there's some oil there, but not much."