Monday, February 14, 2011

A Second Look at GE Rapidly Diversifying Into ..... Oil

Updates

GE accelerates its transition to oil investment.
The acquisition of Wellstream expands GE Oil & Gas' extensive subsea manufacturing and services portfolio and accelerates its presence in the fast growing deepwater production regions of Africa, Asia and Brazil.

Original Post

I was alerted to the story that GE had just bought John Wood Group's well support division a couple of days ago. I didn't know anything about John Wood at the time and I completely missed the significance of the story.

Now that I have had the opportunity to read a much longer story and analysis of the deal in the Financial Times, I have a much better understanding and appreciation for what this means.

I am strongly convinced that fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) will be the major source of energy for America and the rest of the world for many decades, notwithstanding all the hype about wind and solar energy in the press and from politicos.

I have been accused of colleagues that I can't see anything "other than oil." I admit it.

It took awhile, but any serious student of energy requirements can see that there is not enough land in the United States for enough solar panels to generate the amount of electricity that would be needed to replace coal, nuclear, and natural gas.

There may be a niche for solar energy but it's not going to amount to a hill of beans, as they say, in the big picture.

Wind energy is a much bigger source of energy than solar but it, too, will provide an inconsequential amount of energy for the world compared to oil, coal, and nuclear.

It has been interesting to watch General Electric over the past few years try to make a go of it with regard to wind energy. General Electric had a huge interest in wind energy and wind turbines.

But it looks like even General Electric has finally seen the light (no pun intended). Read the Financial Times story; read the direct quotes, and read between the lines.

Here's a sampling of items from the article:
By buying John Wood Group's well support division GE has secured one of the British company’s crown jewels: its electric submersible pumps, which are in ever greater demand for squeezing more oil out of aging fields.

GE was willing to pay a huge price for this division: GE’s winning bid is worth about 17 times last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $166m, and 14 times the ebitda of $200m it predicts for 2011.

A GE spokesman says: "About two-thirds of the world’s oil comes from 300 highly depleted giant fields, and the world has only tapped about a third of what they hold. So if you can squeeze another 1 or 2 per cent out of them, it is really worth doing. This is the first place oil companies will want to invest their money, because it is a lot more productive than trying to find new fields.”

In the US, the unconventional gas industry has been booming, and is expected to invest a further $40bn-$60bn over the next five or six years. It also has the potential to expand to China and some parts of Europe.

Those industry trends mean that the global oil services market, which is expected to be worth $500bn this year, is growing fast, with a 15 per cent rise expected for 2012.
All of that was very interesting, but it was the final thoughts of the article that spoke volumes:
GE still has to prove that its rapid move into oil services, diversifying away from its traditional base in power generation, will pay off.
Two points in that last statement caught my attention: 1) "rapid move into oil services"; and, b) "diversifying away from its traditional base in power generation."

GE seems to have lost its footing the past few years (yes, partly due to the recession) but I think its move into wind turbines instead of oil services was a strategic mistake. GE is now trying to correct that mistake and trying to do it "rapidly."

Even others have noted that GE was not diversified in energy. With 20/20 hindsight, it looks like they were sucked into the hype of wind energy during the lost decade.

When GE, which I think of as a wind turbine company in energy production, looks to diversify and to do so "rapidly" almost takes my breath away. And their diversification is back to the old standby: oil.

GE diversifying into oil convinces me that fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) will be the major source of energy for America and the rest of the world for many decades, notwithstanding all the hype about wind and solar energy in the press and from politicos.

And Yet, Still One More Pipeline -- Ethane From Tioga, ND, to Alberta -- North Dakota, USA

Vantage Pipeline Canada, Inc., is looking to construct and operate a pipeline that would carry 45,000 b/d liquid ethane from a processing plant near Tioga, ND, through Saskatchewan, to a gathering system near Empress, Alberta.

The pipeline would be about 430 miles long; obviously most of it would be on the Canadian side of the border.

Capacity would be expandable to 60,000 b/d (from the initial 45,000 b/d) if the Williston Basin can support the increase. If approved, the project could be started in the first half 2012 and completed by the end of 2012.

Nova Chemicals signed a memorandum of understanding with Hess in July, 2010, to purchase and transport ethane production from the Hess Tioga gas plant via a proposed pipeline to Alberta.

Five (5) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Producers: Anschutz (2), Burlington Resources, Tracker, and EOG.

Fields: Blue Buttes, Clear Water, Murphy Creek, and a wildcat.

The two Anschutz wells will be on a single pad in Murphy Creek in Dunn County.

The wildcat is a Tracker wildcat, ten (10) miles southwest of Watford City. This area continues to pick up in activity.

The results of only one well was reported on today's daily activity report (DAR) despite the fact that several wells came off the confidential list today, which I posted elsewhere earlier today.

The one well reported in the DAR:
  • 18599, 1,003, Anschutz, Andrew Schmidt 1-3-10H-143-97, Dunn Country.  It was considered a wildcat, but is now in Cabernet oil field, a very good field.

168 Active Rigs: Ties Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

168 active rigs; ties record.

WSJ: China's Increasing Presence in US Fossil Fuels

The Wall Street Journal provides a nice summary of Chinese buying spree in US fossil fuels.

It is intriguing and amazing to estimate how much the US could do to ease its debt burden if it took advantage of low-hanging fruit. But something tells me it won't happen any time soon. Sad. Too many air quality permits to get through first.

Some Great Bakken Wells Being Reported Today -- North Dakota, USA

Some nice wells came off the confidential list today:
  • 19132, 1,219, Oasis, Ellis 5602 12-17H, Bull Butte, Bakken
  • 19270, 1,006, Tracker, Gudmunsen 27-1H, Wildcat, Bakken
  • 19097, 2,944, Oasis, Merritt 5693 11-24H, Alger, Bakken
  • 18464, 1,424, EOG, Mandaree 1-10H, Squaw Creek, Bakken
  • 19138, 2,616, Encore, Franchuk 34-19SWH, Murphy Creek, Bakken
  • 19313, 1,135, American Oil and Gas, Olson 15-36H, Wildcat, Bakken
A reminder: American Oil and Gas (AEZ) and some Tracker assets were bought by Hess last year.

Shell Will Not Drill in Alaska's Beaufort Sea This Year -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.

The EPA needs more time to study air quality permits.

Anything to destroy the oil industry.

Isn't this the second company to delay drilling "in" Alaska? I think I recall BP dialing back on Alaskan drilling this year, also.

President Obama's 2012 Budget: $3.73 Trillion -- Not a Bakken Story Unless You Count New Taxes on Oil

US debt now equals entire US economy. The administration: "What, Me Worry?"
“I still don’t see a sense of urgency from the president about the massive federal debt,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander, Tennessee Republican. “His budget calls for too much government borrowing – even though the debt is already at a level that makes it harder to create private-sector jobs.”

*********


2011: the president requested $3.83 trillion.
2010: the president requested $3.55 trillion.

Sources: Wikipedia. These were the requests; the final budgets would have been much different.

In the energy area, the budget would support Obama's goal of putting 1 million coal-powered vehicles on the road by 2015 and doubling the nation's share of electricity from clean energy sources by 2035.

Obama's budget would raise $46 billion over 10 years by eliminating various tax breaks to oil, gas and coal companies.

Nation Can't Afford Coal-Powered Cars -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.

SeekingAlpha article.

Still in the News: Enbridge Will No Longer Ship Sour Crude -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This information has been previously posted at this site, but it's still a news story in some parts of North Dakota.
The Grand Forks Herald is reporting that Enbridge will soon stop shipping sour crude in its pipelines. (The link will be broken soon; regional newspaper.)

The only company still shipping sour crude on a North Dakota pipeline is halting the practice next month to make way for a higher quality and more plentiful crude from the state's booming oil patch.
Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge Inc. says eliminating the practice of shipping “sour” crude — oil that's high in sulfur and more difficult to refine than low- or no-sulfur “sweet” crude — will allow it to more than double by early 2013 the amount of sweet crude it will be able to ship from the Bakken and underlying Three Forks formation.
That's not entirely correct, at least not how I understand it. Simply shifting to only sweet crude would not result in doubling capacity for sweet crude. Enbridge is doubling the amount of pipeline in its system over the next couple of years.

Other data points from the article:

Currently, about 5,000 bbls of 160,000 barrels is sour crude that moves through the Enbridge system on a daily basis in its North Dakota's mainline
  • Enbridge will add about 24,000 bopd of sweet crude once the change is made
  • The line runs from North Dakota to Clearbook, Minnesota
  • The decision will mostly affect oil produced from fields along the Canadian border, between the towns of Bowbells and Bottineau; it will affect the Spearfish formation
  • Sour crude will be trucked to Canada; trucking adds $1 to $3 per bbl in cost; pipeline adds 50 cents to $1.50 per bbl
  • North Dakota has pipeline capacity of 340,000 bopd; an additional 100,000 bopd by train
  • North Dakota is producing about 350,000 bopd
  • Enbridge plans to expand its network by an additional 330,000 bopd at a cost of $370 million
  • The Enbridge system from western North Dakota ends at Clearbrook, Minnesota

EnerMAX/S&S Sales To Provide Housing for Williston Workers -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here. Will be broken soon; regional newspaper.

Adequate housing is still an issue in the heart of the Bakken.
North American Building Solutions LLC, a West Fargo-based developer, is providing employees of Williston-compnay Enermax S&S Solutions with apartment-style housing at its location outside of town.

The two-story complex, west of town on the company's lot on 139th Avenue Northwest will have eight four-bedroom apartments. Still under discussion is whether families of employees will be allowed to live there.
See comment below. Apparently the correct name is either EnerMAX/S&S Sales or S&S Sales/EnerMax. I see it various ways on the net.