August 11, 2017: Tesla's JUNK bonds are over-subscribed; will pay 5.25%.
Original Post
Junk: Phil LeBeau, the #2 cheerleader (after Musk Melon) for Tesla was just on CNBC announcing the $1.5 billion bond Tesla offering. The bonds have received a JUNK rating. I could have missed it, but I don't think Phil LeBeau mentioned these bonds have a JUNK rating. Link here.
Following the announcement, Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its
negative outlook for the automaker and assigned a "B-" rating for the
bond issue - deep into junk credit territory. S&P also maintained
its "B-" long-term corporate credit rating on Tesla.
Now, back to the solar patch story.
Now that President Obama is no longer in office, it appears that the mainstream media is feeling a bit more comfortable reporting stories suggesting not all is going well in the solar patch.
Sunvia: a Georgia solar-panel and solar-cell maker, filed for bankruptcy in April, 2017; Sunvia is majority-owed by a company in Hong Kong
SolarWorld: Oregon, joined the suit; SolarWorld is a German company
Ten K Solar: Minnesota's only solar-panel maker of any size; Bloomington; announced in May, 2017, it was getting out of the solar-panel business
Heliene: based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario; was left "out in the cold" (perhaps better said, left in the dark) when Silicon Energy, which manufactured panels for Heliene closed down
Meanwhile, St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that St Louis area companies are reeling from the bankruptcy filing of Sunvia.
I've always felt the solar panels being sold for residential rooftops reminded me of the aluminum siding craze in Williston, ND, when I was growing up there in the 50's and 60's.
*************************** Note For The Granddaughters
Over the weekend I read a note suggesting that for three-year-olds, the "great room" in Goodnight Moon was particularly superb. I forget where I read that; perhaps in the "Review" section of The Wall Street Journal, but most likely somewhere else. Having toddlers name everything they see in the "great room" is quite compelling.
Today, coincidentally, I get this daily update from TutorTime where Sophia attends "school" and loves it:
Two new solar projects have been approved for the state of Minnesota.
Minnesota regulators on Thursday approved a solar power project near
Marshall, MN, that will be the second-largest in the state.
NextEra Energy Resources was cleared to build a 62-megawatt solar
generator on 515 acres of farmland three miles east of Marshall. One
megawatt is 1 million watts of electricity.
The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission unanimously voted to approve the project, rejecting concerns that it violated state policy against building energy projects on prime farmland.
The other large solar farm, approved in January,
is the $180 million, 100-megawatt North Star Solar project on 800 acres
southeast of North Branch in Chisago County.
Both solar projects are expected to be built this year.
By 2020, 1.5 percent of the electricity sold by the state's major
utilities — Xcel Energy, Minnesota Power and Otter Tail Power — must
come from solar generation.
The Red Lake Band of Chippewa Indians has signed a formal agreement
with the Winkelman Building Corp. and Innovative Power Systems Inc. to
design, engineer, procure, construct and manage solar energy projects
for the three Red Lake casinos and various other tribal government
buildings.
Red Lake will install 15 megawatts—equal to 15 million watts—worth of
solar panels across the rooftops of the band’s largest buildings. When
they’re done, the panels will generate enough power to light every bulb
in the tribe’s three casinos, the tribal college and all government
buildings. The ultimate goal is to generate enough solar power on tribal
land to supply every home on Red Lake within five years.
The Red Lake solar power plan is divided into three phases. Phase I will
cover three casinos, the Red Lake Government Center, Red Lake Nation
College, the Justice Center Complex, the Humanities Facility and other
large buildings. It involves installing $20 million to $30 million in
solar energy equipment and providing solar energy training for the Red
Lake workforce.
But there's more:
Phase II will be the development of solar energy farms on ceded
lands up north and will consist of 40 to 100 acres of solar panels that
will provide 10 to 20 megawatts of electricity to be sold to the grid,
thus producing a steady revenue stream for years to come for the tribe.
The solar array will help Minnesota Power comply with the state’s new
solar mandate. It represents a part of the solar power that Minnesota
Power needs to add by 2020 under a new law requiring investor-owned
electric utilities to get 1.5 percent of their energy from the sun.
Coops like Beltrami Electric are not subject to the same mandate.
Phase III will be the development of a solar energy plant that will
produce solar equipment for the industry, while providing jobs
assembling solar panels for the members of Red Lake Nation.
Eighty percent of phase one will be completed by the end of 2016.
Funding:
Winkelman estimates the cost at upwards of $20 million.
The band itself
will only pay only $100,000 for the project, with the vast majority of
costs shouldered by the Olson Energy Corporation, which specializes in
shuttling solar developers through the government incentive system.
Olson Energy has developed a financial plan to assist in addressing the
financial needs for solar energy development. U.S. tax law provides a
variety of benefits to developers and owners of renewable energy
projects, since non-taxed entities such as units of government cannot
benefit directly from these incentives.
Xcel Energy said Friday that its plan to reduce carbon emissions at
least 60 percent by 2030, including closing two coal-fired Sherco units
and replacing them with a new natural gas plant in Becker, will have a
minimal impact on electric rates.
In documents filed with the
Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, Xcel said its plan, if approved,
would result in an annual rate increase of 2.4 percent, compared to
2 percent a year if it continued business as usual for the next 15
years.
The plan calls for replacing Sherco units 1 and 2 with a
natural gas plant in Becker and more renewable energy like solar and
wind.
It will be interesting to look at actual wind/solar results fifteen years from now. Something tells me this is not going to be as rosy as folks think. But, hey, it could have been worse -- the utilities could have gone all in with solar / wind.
January 30, 2016: from the Obama administration - Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector,
by State, November 2015 and 2014 (cents per kilowatt-hour) -- selected states. All things being equal, electricity rates should be going down, no up.
North Dakota moved from #3 to #2, behind Louisana, but jumped ahead of both Washington State and Idaho; regular readers are aware of the hydroelectricity issue in these northwestern states.
According to a reader, the MDU residential rate in southwestern ND as of Decembe, 2015, billing, not including the 35 cents per day basic service charge, is 8.79 cents per KWH.
State - residential
November - 2015
November - 2014
Massachusetts
18.32
17.61
New York
18.30
19.45
Illinois
13.19
12.62
North Dakota
9.31
8.65
South Dakota
10.97
10.42
Iowa - wind
11.42
10.34
Florida
11.69
12.11
Alabama
11.46
11.09
Texas
11.48
11.98
Montana
10.85
10.25
Arizona
11.29
11.08
California - hmmm
17.36
17.00
Washington - Hydro
9.37
8.61
Alaska
20.28
19.70
Hawaii
27.16
34.84
US Average
12.73
12.48
States in New England and the state of California "stand out."
Original Post
Note: there will be typographical and factual errors in this post. It is not worth the time to fact-check or spell-check this article. Do not make any solar energy decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here.
Data points from this article:
even regulators had questions about the high cost
$30 million solar project
10-million-watt output
143,000 customers in Duluth area; Camp Ridley
at $3 / installed watt, exceeds Xcel Energy's North Star Solar Project near North Branch, MN ($1.80/watt); $3 / watt = $3 million / MW
The utility, it appears, was forced into this project. The state of Minnesota mandates that 1.5% (no typo, 1.5%) of its electricity from the sun by 2020. This $30 million project will ... drum roll ... provide ... drum roll ... one-third of that requirement.
Just to show you how unnecessary this project is, this is the stated purpose of the solar panels: it will feed electricity to Camp Ridley during power outages. As long as those power outages occur during daylight hours, and recall from the Nevada experience, it takes one to two hours to "bring up" a solar energy farm. The more one reads between the lines of this article, the more one wonders. If Arizona ever wants to sell the London Bridge, I know the state they can sell it to.
As the train rounded the curve, Sam and Liam saw the new billboards
going up asking for donations to help Minnesotans pay their intermittent
energy utility bills. The state was now completely reliant on
intermittent energy, and utility bills had surged, as expected. Even the
heirs to the great Dayton estate were surprised to see how many wind
farms it took to generate enough electricity to keep the lights on, not
to mention, to recharge the Teslas. To conserve electricity, the state
had asked Minnesotans to stop making Swedish meatballs during peak
electricity demand.
Sam noted the irony, "It's kind of funny how things worked out. Ever
since CO2 dropped, it got colder in Minnesota just as they were meeting
their state-mandated wind farm initiatives. And now no one can afford
it."
By the way, that $3 million/MW doesn't set any records: the Minnesotans are proud to say they installed solar energy at one of their airports for $7 million/MW. I can't make this stuff up. No links. Google it if interested. I'm burning daylight; more important stuff to cover.
By the way, the quotes for natural gas (above) were back in 2008; since then the price of natural gas electricity has come way down (as noted above, 3.5 cents/kw-hour). If you live in Duluth, MN, and you are paying more than 3.5 cents/kw-hour, send a note to Xcel.
Remember, the new solar site will require complementary fossil fuel power to provide electricity during the night, during six months of winter, during cloudy days, ...
North Dakota is third cheapest at 8.58 cents/kwh.
Idaho, with its hydroelectric power, is cheapest at 7.87 cents/kwh.
Washington State, also with hydroelectric power, is second, at 8.28 cents/kwh.
New York State, which bans fracking, and hates coal, but loves wind,
pays 18.26 cents/kwh, more than twice what North Dakotans pay.
One can move the Excel spreadsheet to your own spreadsheet and then
sort. Doing that, New York is the most expensive for electricity,
excluding Hawaii, which is in last place, at 34.68 cents/kwh.
I think the Germans pay in excess of 35 cents/kwh.
Alcoa Inc. has struck a $1.5 billion long-term supply contract with
General Electric Inc.’s aviation unit, underscoring the aluminum
producer’s efforts to offset difficult conditions in its raw-aluminum
business.
Under the deal, New York-based Alcoa will supply
advanced nickel-based superalloy, titanium and aluminum components for
engines and for engine parts made by GE.
Alcoa shares rose 1% in recent premarket trading.
The
announcement comes ahead of what is expected to be Alcoa’s worst
quarterly report since early 2014, due after the market closes Monday,
including a 17% drop in revenue from a year earlier and earnings of two
cents a share, according to a poll of analysts. Raw-aluminum prices have
fallen over 25% to about $1,500 per ton in the past year.
As
usual, it will be first major U.S. company to report, setting the tone
during a volatile time for the stock market.
Front page, on-line edition, but way, way at the bottom, from The Los Angeles Times, google in North Dakota, an oil boomtown doesn't want to go bust.
It may be tempting to write off Williston as another boomtown heading
for a bust, a story that has defined the American West, whether the
resource was fur, gold or timber.
But Williston believes it can
build something more enduring. The way city officials tell it, closing
the camps is a show of faith in the future.
"It's very difficult to build a sustainable community on man camps," said Ward Koeser, who retired as mayor in 2014.
The
city used its newfound wealth to build a $70-million high school, a
$68-million recreation center, and new water and sewer systems. It
renovated Main Street and created a city position for someone to write
parking tickets. Highways have been widened, and an airport is under
development.
The biggest transformation may be in the city's
housing stock. As the population tripled to more than 36,000, developers
built about 10,000 houses and apartments.
Police are hunting for a gunman who shot and killed a fellow passenger on board a train in Oakland, California.
Description of the suspect, in broad daylight or at least a well-lit train, with at least one witness.
The suspect was wearing blue jeans, military-style boots and a dark jacket.
So politically correct we don't know whether the suspect is male, female; tall, short; thin, fat; white, black; hat, no hat; tattoos, no tattoos; long hair, short hair, no hair. But we do know the suspect was wearing --OMG -- "military-style" boots.
**************************
From The Boston Globe
Shire finalizes deal to buy Baxalta with $32 billion offer.
David Bowie dead, cancer, at age 69.
Burdened students confront candidates on college loans.
Boston Globe delivery problems persist. For the second consecutive week, thousands of Sunday newspapers did not reach subscribers.The Globe continues to print daily "apologies" to its subscribers. Comment: there's a huge backstory here that is not being reported.
**************************
The LA Times
Google: The Saudi-U.S. relationship: Shakier than ever.
Saudi Arabia's royal family is frightened — and that's a problem for the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
The
Saudis are surrounded by enemies.
To the north, Abu Bakr Baghdadi,
leader of Islamic State, has promised to overthrow the Al Saud dynasty,
which he calls “the serpent's head.” To the south, Sunni-led Saudi
forces are at war against Shia Muslim rebels in Yemen. To the east, the
Al Saud face the rival they fear most, Shia-ruled Iran.
The Saudis have problems at home, too.
Fearing subversion from both
Islamic State and Iran, the government has cracked down on Sunni and
Shia dissidents alike, jailing writers, journalists and human rights
lawyers as well as potential terrorists.
The plummeting price of oil has
blown a hole in the government's budget while the population,
accustomed to subsidized housing and utilities, keeps growing.
And
the family faces a succession crisis; 80-year-old King Salman, who
ascended to the throne last year, is described privately by diplomats as
nearly senile.
Once their regime was a pillar of conservative stability; now fear has made them unpredictable.
****************************
The Birther Problem
The Ted Cruz birth problem remains, perhaps, the top story in GOP politics. Who wudda thought? Legally, he's good to go. But he was a Canadian citizen, also, up until 18 months ago. He renounced his Canadian citizenship in 2014, when he was ready to announce he was running for president. That's a problem.
The
GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual
rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent on January 8, down
from 1.0 percent on January 6. The forecast for the contribution of
inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined 0.2
percentage points to -0.8 percentage points after this morning's
wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
***********************************
Nominee For Geico Rock Award
StarTribune has nominated Cathy and Kevin Palmer, Blaine, MN, for the Geico Rock Award, 2016. Apparently the couple had not heard about really, really inexpensive natural gas.
Technically it's not a nomination but it certainly reads like a nomination.
They spent $5,700 on six solar panels to provide 17% of their electricity needs (of course, that's a hypothetical number and we all know that reality will never match a high-pressure salesman's projections).
Assuming they have a $300/month utility bill, 17% of $300 = $51.
$5,700 / $51 = 111 months = 9 years. So, assuming everything works as advertised their solar panels will pay for themselves in about 10 years.
If their monthly utility bill is $150 (see below), then 17% of $150 = $25.
We're in a split-level from the early 1990's in Blaine. It's about 1800
square feet. We've got the original furnace and air conditioner in our
house, so probably not very efficient. We also haven't done much to
make our house more efficient (probably could use some more/better
insulation in a few places). We are fairly aggressive with a
programmable thermostat (80 in summer, 60 or so in winter during the
day). We also replaced the fridge, which probably saves $6-$7 a month in
electricity (plus the new one is bigger and actually keeps things
cold).
Gas averages about $55/month. But, it's highly variable (about $20 in
summer, tops out around $150 in winter). Electric is about $50/month
and more consistent. Water/sewer/garbage are all billed through the
city and come out to about $36/month. We do have the smallest garbage
bin available which saves a small amount of money per month.
That was back in 2011, when natural gas was selling for $4.00 / million BTUs, vs $2.00 today.
By the way, on a percentage basis the amount of energy that solar contributes to total US consumption still rounds ... drum roll ... 0.0%. To the first decimal place, solar contributes 0.0% of energy consumption in the US. Wind: 2%. And this is after decades of advocacy, tax credits, and government mandates:
There is talk that the amount of energy that solar contributes to total US consumption by 2030 could triple.
Phillips 66 Co. has commissioned a 100,000-b/d NGL fractionator near its 247,000-b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, TX.
Supported by 250 miles of pipelines and a multimillion-barrel storage cavern complex, Sweeny Fractionator One is now producing purity ethane and LPGs that deliver via pipeline to local petrochemical customers as well as to the market hub at Mont Belvieu, TX.
The company said it expects to begin LPG deliveries to international markets once it completes the 150,000-b/d LPG export terminal at Phillips 66’s existing marine terminal in Freeport, TX.
The Freeport LPG export terminal, which will have an initial export capacity of 4.4 million bbl/month, remains on schedule for startup during second-half 2016.
At a combined capital investment of more than $3 billion, Sweeny Fractionator One and the Freeport LPG export terminal will connect to a 100,000-b/d de-ethanizer unit to be installed at the Old Ocean site that will upgrade US propane for export
December 8, 2015: here's another example of the cost of new natural gas projects. Seeking Alpha is reporting on the Caithness Moxie Freedom power plant in
Luzerne County, PA, the first plant using GEs high efficiency 7HA.02
gas turbines to be project financed.
The 1,029 megawatt (MW) plant will be able to generate
the equivalent power needed to supply approximately one million US homes.
GE Energy Financial Services and its co-leads arranged $592 million
senior secured credit facilities to support the Caithness Moxie Freedom
Projects construction and operation, with eight other banks in the
syndicate.
I don't know if this is the total cost of the project, but if so, $592 million / 1,029 MW = $575,315 / MW.
GEs HA gas turbines are the worlds largest and most efficient at more
than 61% combined cycle efficiency, and lead the industry in total
life-cycle value. HA technology provides cleaner, reliable and
cost-effective conversion of fuel to electricity.
Compare that to the load factor of solar energy: 9%.
Original Post
Finally some good news coming out of Minnesota. This is a nice story coming out of Minnesota because it gives us current cost estimates for a new natural gas plant vs solar/wind.
Minnesota
Power is moving forward with plans to build a major natural gas-fired
power plant, accepting bids through January from multiple companies in
an ongoing push to move away from coal.
The utility is expected to
negotiate with multiple bidders in 2016 for the plant which could be
built anywhere in the Upper Midwest -- not necessarily in northern
Minnesota, but within the Midwest electric grid system, company
officials said.
Specifications require the proposals to be between
200 and 400 megawatts, and the facility -- essentially a large gas
turbine that would fire to create electricity when demand requires --
will cost from $300 million to $400 million to build, said Al Rudeck,
Minnesota Power's vice president of strategy and planning.
$400 million / 400 WM = $1 million / MW. At $300 million / 400 MW = $750,000 / MW.
On a day like today, one might want to drop in to see what condition one's condition might be in:
the market plunges 300 points based on talk of maybe, just possibly, a very, very small rate increase because the economy is getting too "hot" and needs to be slowed down a bit;
14 people are killed and scores injured by a Saudi mom-and-pop team in full-body battle armor, armed to the teeth with thousands of rounds of ammunition with a small IED arsenal, and the FBI is hesitant to call it an act of terrorism (at least we know why there's a shortage of ammunition; California Saudis have bought it all);
we have a meteorological ideologue for president, who no longer wants to be briefed on terrorism; because a) he gets it; and b) there is no credible evidence of imminent danger;
people get excited about saving a buck a month on their utility bills by locking in a 25-year solar energy contract in a state that has six months of darkness (some call it winter); based on rates going up 4% a year for the next 25 years; and,
Saudi thinks it's great to see Venezuela implode.
Just Dropped In, Kenny Rogers
**************************** FBI: Terrorism = Fanatic Islam And Nothing Else?
Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik — the couple who stormed a county social services office in San Bernardino, CA yesterday morning killing 14 at an office gathering, before dying hours later in a shootout with police — had an ample arsenal of high-power weapons, ammo and explosive devices, in addition to running an 'IED factory' out of their home. The FBI still is not ready to call them terrorists, as it examines computer and cell phone equipment taken from the couple's home.
Correct me if I'm wrong (that's rhetorical; please don't comment) but it appears that to be labeled "terrorism" in this country, it has to be radicalized Islam. If not, then it's not going to be labeled "terrorism." Workplace violence? Hate crime? PTSD? A bad day at the office?
On another note, California has some of the strongest gun-control laws on the books. If all those high-power weapons were legally purchased and bought by the same person, wouldn't that warrant a second or third or fourth look? And then the purchaser travels to Saudi Arabia? Something tells me the government is doing a lousy job of integrating databases. Maybe "they" need to integrate computer data identifying folks returning from overseas with high-power weapon purchases. I'm beginning to wonder what customs/passport control really accomplish at US points of entry.
****************************
Solar Will (Maybe) Save You $1/Month Over 25 Years
But If Solar Works In Minnesota, It Can Work Anywhere
After speaking to several solar developers earlier this year, a
Minnesota town decided last month to subscribe to a community solar
garden that will be operated by Sunshare. Jordan, a community of 6,148 residents southwest of Minneapolis,
became the largest and one of the first cities in Minnesota to announce
it would be offsetting its electric use through community solar.
That short but growing list of cities subscribing to gardens
includes, for now, just the nearby community of Cologne, which signed a
contract with Sunshare earlier this year.
Jordan's power would come from a 5 megawatt community garden proposed
for Blakely Township in Scott County. The garden could also serve
nearby Savage, where city council members in October heard about the
benefits of community solar from a Sunshare representative.
Under the 25-year contract Jordan could save as much as $1.6 million
by 2040, according to Tom Nikunen, city administrator. That is based on
the assumption that Xcel Energy, which serves Jordan, will increase costs on average of four percent a year over the length of the contract.
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. $1.6 million savings / 25 years = $64,000 / year divided by 6,000 residents = $10 saving / year or less than a dollar a month. Just to have a huge solar farm in your backyard, land that can no longer be used for anything else.
****************************
At Her Own Peril
Ms Yellen knows that she may end up putting the country into recession. Today, "just" the talk of a paltry rate hike causes the market to plunge 300 points -- at least that's what folks smarter than I are blaming the market's reaction on today.
*****************************
The Apple Page
Yesterday I mentioned that every car in the universe coming out in 2016 will have Apple's CarPlay installed (okay, that's not quite accurate, but it's close), today we learn that Ford is taking it a step further. Ford will activate Apple's Siri on five million automobiles dating back to 2011. Macrumors is reporting:
While many carmakers are starting to roll out support for Apple's CarPlay in-vehicle functionality, an older Siri Eyes Free feature
is also designed to help minimize driver distraction by using Siri
voice recognition and spoken responses to allow drivers to interact with
an iPhone without needing to look at the screen.
Siri Eyes Free is generally activated through a hardware button on the
vehicle's steering wheel and is available in a number of makes and
models, and Ford today is officially announcing
the launch of Eyes Free support for over five million vehicles dating
back to the 2011 model year via a software update to Ford's
second-generation SYNC infotainment system.
If you go to the linked article at Macrumors, be sure to read the comments. Readers confirm this is actually accurate and Ford "pushed" the update to their older model Fords. One reader noted that this is virtually unheard of in the automotive world, getting something like this for free. Updating other mapping systems will cost you upwards of $200 according to one reader.
A solar energy project at the Minneapolis airport came in at twice the going rate for solar energy projects.
The solar energy project came in at almost $7 million / MW compared to the usual price of $3.5 million / MW and compared to $2 million / MW for wind, and significantly less for natural gas and coal.
Minnesota’s largest solar power project is now generating electricity
atop two parking ramps at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International
Airport.
The 3 million-watt system containing 8,705 solar panels went online
Tuesday, and is expected to supply 20 percent of the electricity used in
Terminal 1 and to cut carbon emissions by nearly 7,000 tons per year,
airport officials said. [It would be interesting to know how much carbon is emitted by a/c flying into this airport in one day.]
“It is a big deal for us,” said Dennis Probst, executive vice president for the Metropolitan Airports Commission. [At $7 million / MW -- it is a big deal.]
The $20 million solar project is the first of two at the airport. The
commission recently approved a plan to install a 1.3 million-watt solar
array atop a parking ramp at Terminal 2, at a cost of $8.5 million.
Construction is expected to begin next year.
Both solar arrays are expected to make money immediately for the airport
— with 30-year savings of $10 million on the first project, and about
half that on the second, smaller project.
The $20 million project for 3 MW = almost $7 million / MW.
The smaller project comes in about the same price / MW. At $8.5 million / 1.3 MW = $6.5 million / MW.
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source, and use a reliable calculator. These numbers are so off the scale, I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere. If indeed the numbers are accurate ($7 million/MW), I would think the state's attorney general might want to have an independent auditor / inspector check into the bidding process.
Apparently, "everyone" from the reporter to the engineers were surprised about the relative lack of sunshine in Minnesota, or at least the lack of predictability. [Note to engineers: the days get shorter in the winter in Minnesota. It's been that way for millenia.]
In Minnesota:
A state mandate requires investor-owned utilities to generate 1.5
percent of electrical power from solar by 2020, one way or another.
So, they have a "Twin Cities solar power demonstration" but it looks like there wasn't a lot of pre-planning.
“We’ve seen pretty significant output differences between December
and June and July, which is anticipated, though I guess we didn’t have a
firm concept of how large of a difference that might have been, when we
started the project,” said Andy Bergrud, senior engineering project
manager for Great River Energy.
Don was kind enough to provide the number of "sunny" days in the following cities (he provided the links if anyone needs them, just ask):
Jordan, MN: 197
Maple Plains, MN: 193
Maple Grove, MN: 196
Buffalo, NY: 155
US Average: 205
Bowman, ND, yes, Bowman, North Dakota: 214
Las Vegas, NV: 294
Einstein's definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Original Post
From the folks who ban fracking, will now put up solar panels in the snowiest city in the US. The New York Times is reporting:
On
the often cloudy shores of the Buffalo River, where a steel factory
once thrived, lies the rising framework of one of New York’s most
ambitious economic endeavors ever: a giant solar panel factory that the
state says will be the largest of its kind in the Western Hemisphere.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo
has committed up to $750 million to the project, the biggest economic
development effort he has undertaken in his five years as governor.
In doing so, he has not just bet big on solar energy,
a competitive and rapidly growing business, but also on the success of
SolarCity, a fast-growing California company that will operate out of
the factory that the New York State will own.
The
potential benefits seem substantial: The state has said the 1.2
million-square-foot SolarCity factory, which is scheduled to open in
early 2016, will create 5,000 jobs, with 3,000 of them in western New
York.If the demand for solar power
grows, and the companies the state has attracted are able to capitalize
on that, then it could be well positioned to profit.
Companies lured to
New York by generous state grants have created jobs, often in
struggling regions or cities like Buffalo. The government hopes a
virtuous cycle will follow, and public money will attract private
investment.
Memo to self: check back on this story in five years. LOL. And the taxpayers will pay for this boondoggle also. Promoted by Elon Musk.
I can't find a solid estimate for the cost of this solar farm but it sounds like about $6 billion. Someone said SolarCity will be investing $5 billion in the project and the state about a billion works out to $6 billion / 1,000 MW = $6 million / MW -- about what I would expect. Solar remains the most expensive energy out there, even more expensive than off-shore wind. Buffalo, of course, is noted for its sunny days. LOL.
Cuomo: preparing for his 2020 presidential big. Hillary will be 73 years young by then ... or something like that -- I think she will be 69 when she votes next year ...
Apparently, "everyone" from the reporter to the engineers were surprised about the relative lack of sunshine in Minnesota, or at least the lack of predictability. [Note to engineers: the days get shorter in the winter in Minnesota. It's been that way for millenia.]
In Minnesota:
A state mandate requires investor-owned utilities to generate 1.5
percent of electrical power from solar by 2020, one way or another.
So, they have a "Twin Cities solar power demonstration" but it looks like there wasn't a lot of pre-planning.
“We’ve seen pretty significant output differences between December
and June and July, which is anticipated, though I guess we didn’t have a
firm concept of how large of a difference that might have been, when we
started the project,” said Andy Bergrud, senior engineering project
manager for Great River Energy.
GRE is owned by 28 member co-ops, making it Minnesota’s second largest electric power supplier to 650,000 ratepayers.
Great River installed a 240 kilowatt solar array at its Maple Grove
headquarters in 2014 to test how solar technology performs in Minnesota
to improve the design and operation of future projects.
And this is what they found:
GRE recorded ideal weather conditions — clear, sunny days from sun-up to
sunset — just 10 percent of the time. Surprisingly, none of the perfect
days came during typically sunnier, summer months.
I think everyone in North Dakota is very, very aware of the bright, sunny days we have most of the winter -- the days are short, but the skies are often clear as can be. That's why the UND aviation school is such a success -- so many clear, cloudless days. At least that's what I remember growing up in Williston.
So, how is the demonstration project going?
Overall, the solar facility produced power at an average of 13.6
percent of its potential capacity, generating enough electricity to
supply about 30 homes.
And then this profundity:
John Kearney, a staff representative from Minnesota Solar Industries
Energy Association, said the fluctuation of sunshine is factored in to
solar power planning. [LOL -- I can't make this stuff up.]
“Solar customers understand how the erratic nature of solar impacts
their energy requirements when they make their solar investment,” he
said. [Really?]
Is this what they were told? That it would take 17 years to pay back without state subsidies?
While Minnesota’s mandate does not apply to electric co-ops, 13 of
GRE’s members have installed small community solar gardens in response
to consumer interest.
Lake Region Electric Cooperative customers in Pelican Rapids, for
example, can buy a solar panel for 20 years at a cost of $1,400. The
investment takes 17 years to pay back without state subsidies, but the
co-op has sold out a 40 kilowatt solar set-up, and most of a new 20
kilowatt array.
"Most of a new 20-kilowatt array." Wow.
I don't know if I'm getting more and more cynical with age, or the more I learn about intermittent energy, the more discouraged I become.
Much, much more at the linked article.
Remember, this is all being done to help with global warming -- I have no idea how much Minnesota contributes to global emissions of anything, but mandating investor-owned utilities to generate 1.5
percent of electrical power from solar by 2020 in light of all the new coal plants in India and China (for around 3 billion people) seems incredibly naive. Whatever. All I know is that Minnesota has several world-class colleges and universities, and an incredibly educated and enlightened population with Al Franken as one of their two senators.
