Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Gasoline Demand Continues To Disappoint Fossil Fuel Investors, Refiners -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47166B.

Link here.

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The Movie Page 

"Quentin Tarantino on Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry" -- from eight days ago.

  • from Quentin Tarentino's book, Cinema Speculation, which I have on my "top shelf" and have read.

"How Pulp Fiction Revolutionized Cinema" -- from three days ago.

Two New Permits -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47165B.

Social security: some are already predicting that social security benefits could rise by 3.2%; link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $48.63.

Active rigs: 37.

Two new permits, #40753 - #40754, inclusive

  • Operators: CLR, Oasis
  • Fields: Cabernet (Dunn); Sorkness (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Rutledge well, SESE 11-144-97
      • to be sited 325 FSL and 1253 FEL;
    • Oasis has a permit for a Van Berkoom well, spacing -- sections 11 / 14 / 23 - 157-93, 
      • note did not state in which section to be sited (based on map, most likely section 11)
        • to be sited 255 FNL and 1317 FEL
      • wells of interest:
        • horizontal runs north: 22438, Oasis, M Lee, t11/12; cum 167K 3/24;
        • horizontal runs south: 18320, Oasis, Van Berkom, t4/10; cum 182K 3/24;

One permit renewed:

  • 39904, Enerplus, Spoiler, South Fork, Dunn County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40149, 956, Koda Resources, Amber 1435-2BH, Divide County;

Buffett Watch, 13F Released Today For 1Q24 -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47164BUFFETT.

Warren Buffett is tracked here.

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Buffett

Chubb

First thought: old school. Okay.

Link here.


Spreadsheet. Source here for the top 50 holdings. A great interactive spreadsheet at that link. This is the 1Q24 BRK equity portfolio that I use for myself. It is not meant to replace other sources. I added today's Chubb announcement and updated the top 20 or so holdings. At the annual meeting, 2024, Buffett said he had sold the entirety of his Paramount position, but in the 13F released today there was still a small amount PARA noted.

Disclaimer: I often make typographic and content errors on spreadsheets like this. If this is important to you, go go the source.

The portfolio that tries men's souls.

In no particular order. Some are one-year comparisons; some are five-year comparisons:




After An Incredible Day, Cisco Supports With Earnings Report After Hours -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47163MARKET.

All Three Major Indices Hit New 52-Week High (All-Time Highs?)
S&P 500: crosses 5,300 first time ever

Individual Tickers: New 52-wek highs: 285.

VIX at an all-time low (again needs to be fact-checked)

Bull market, link here, 581 days:

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Buffett

Chubb

First thought: old school. Okay.

Link here.


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CISCO (CSCO)
 

CISCO beats EPS $0.88 vs $0.82

$12.70 billion vs $12.53 billion.

After hours CSCO jumps.

Currently up about 4.5% after hours. 

Link here.  One "ticker" I've never understood: CSCO. It remains one of my core holdings. No recommendation. See disclaimers. I've simply had it forever, and have pretty much forgotten about it, although periodically, by rule, I add a bit of new money to my core CSCO holding.

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Netflix

Very positive day, today.

A lot of good things being reported by Netflix.

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McDonald's
Or, How One Loses Credibility

A $5-meal?

Sure, but it's only a month-long promotion. Link here.

Somehow this doesn't impress me.

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AAPL

So far, up 11% this past month, where as market itself has gained 5%. Quote from CNBC anchor, needs to be fact-checked. Fact-check, past month:

  • AAPL: up 12.01%
  • S&P 500: 5.08%

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Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Green Energy For Europe -- Seriously? May 15, 2024

Locator: 47162RENEWABLES.

From oilprice.com. 

Does anyone seriously "link" green energy (wind and solar) with  Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbedistan?

Oh, give me a break.

Meanwhile, in the US, by state, renewable energy production (2022): link here.


Rivian Losing $38,000 / Vehicle -- CEO: Those Results Exceeded Our Outlook -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47161EVS.

Link here.

Sort of reminds me of the old adage: "He's out standing in his field."

Selling more (revenue) and losing more. What's wrong with that picture? 

From the linked article:

Rivian announced a loss of $1.24 per share in the first quarter, down from a $1.25 loss a year ago, while revenue increased more than 80% to $1.204 billion. Analysts predicted a loss of $1.15 per share in Q1 with sales totaling $1.17 billion.

Meanwhile, Rivian ended Q1 with $7.858 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. Rivian ended Q4 with around $9 billion in cash.

Rivian also lost $38,784 per vehicle delivered in Q1.

"First-quarter results exceeded our outlook ...." -- CEO.

Sports -- PGA -- Jimmy Dunne -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47160PGA.

A lot of talk this week is about Jimmy Dunne.

Who is Jimmy Dunne? Link here.

Top Apple Story -- Perhaps Top Streaming Story -- Yesterday -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47159STREAMING.
Locator: 47159AAPL.

Link here.

Why is this important? 

Two of the best streaming companies are now "part of one" bundle. This is incredible. All those folks who watch Netflix but don't watch Apple will now see Apple TV+. Of the three big legacy television networks, NBC is as good as they get; some would argue NBC is the best of the three; others would argue CBS. 

Be that as it may, NBC got two of the best streaming companies. 

For Apple, this is all about "eyeballs" on Apple. Let's say nationwide, NBC/CBS/ABC each share one-third of the legacy pie. Overnight Apple is available to one-third of Americans streaming content.

Then, think about this, re-posting:

AppleCHAT? Let's watch for the stories this next week. 

Link here.

This has been posted previously but it's back in my twitter feed.

Some think Apple, Inc, -- AAPL -- is a value company, a value stock.

For Apple, its services segment is a growth story.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Global Oil Demand Forecast Certainly Doesn't Suggest Recession, Stagflation, Or Global Slowing -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47158B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil in storage dropped again, from 3% to 4% below the five-year average
  • refiners upped their activity from 88% to 90%
  • jet fuel supplied was up a very, very nice 3.7% compare with a year ago

Oil demand forecast:

Two Charts -- The Charts For Today -- A Shoutout To Greta -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47157B.

Charts of the day. From Bloomberg


CNBC On A Record Day -- Starting With The Cramer Morning Hour -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47156B.

All three major indices will likely close at all-time highs. Despite all the headwinds.

Note:

GPDNow, link here.

Economic indices:

  • CPI
  • PPI
    • headline: tracks all prices
    • core: strips out food and energy
  • PCE, link here.

Analysts:

  • some analysts "know" too much and end up missing huge moves, huge opportunities

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The Halftime Report

AAPL: at 11:30 a.m. CDT -- AAPL hit $190.26. The panelists who dissed AAPL / who sold AAPL are now trying to spin their "wrong" decisions. Pretty funny. Hilariously funny.

Anyone paying attention?

Joe buys AMGN:

Mentions EW in same breath as AMGN:


 

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Second Hour With Sara Eisen

US markets:

  • S&P and NASDAQ both trading at new highs.
  • Sempra hits a 52-week high; completely unexpected only a few months ago;
    • ETSC
  • most exciting: Charles Schwab at a new 52-week high; great news for Schwab's employees
    • I don't directly hold stock in Charles Schwab
  • CVX holding back the Dow; CVX now the most shorted stock; takes that bragging right away from TSLA in past 24 hours
    • oil coming down in price; CVX unlikely to close deal with HES 
  • AAPL: wow, after breaking through $188, now, just broke through $189!
    • I'm completely convinced the Comcast announcement was huge for Apple 

SRE: not often seen in utilities -- and completely unexpected only months ago --

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First Hour With Jim Cramer

All-time highs at the opening. -- CNBC

Dividend watch:

  • TSM increased dividend year/year; but a decrease from previous quarter.
  • SRE maintains dividend.
  • 3M cuts quarterly dividend from $1.50 to 70 cents y/y but recently paid special dividend of $17 cash/stock.

3M:

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Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

AAPL: up again today in pre-market trading. Albeit, not by much, but broke through $188.

CPI: first slowdown of the year. Futures surge:


Personal investing:

  • I'll re-post my earlier thoughts which I took down overnight. 
  • adding to positions in CRH and MU today, by rule
  • no recommendation; see disclaimers.

Market: US equity markets -- 70% of the market is run by:

  • "algos"
  • momentum

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The Cramer Morning Hour

Cramer is in "fine form" this morning.

Nvidia's CEO just got a 60% pay raise.

Watch the 52-week highs today, TWSJ. At open: 150 new highs. Including:

  • ONEOK
  • SCCO
  • WMB

Israel: Sara Eisen one-on-one wiht Netanyahu in Israel. What a scoop. CNBC sent their best to interview Netanyahu. I'm impressed.

 

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Statesman

Link here

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New Shirts

Link here.

Anticipation:

Pre-Market Surges -- April CPI Comes In Better Than Expected -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47156B.

CPI: first slowdown of the year.

Personal investing:

  • I'll re-post my earlier thoughts which I took down overnight. 
  • adding to positions in CRH and MU today, by rule
  • no recommendation; see disclaimers.

Market: US equity markets -- 70% of the market is run by:

  • "algos"
  • momentum

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.99.

Thursday, May 16, 2024: 21 for the month; 85 for the quarter, 284 for the year
39877, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf W 158-06-1-12-1MBH,

Wednesday, May 15, 2024: 20 for the month; 84 for the quarter, 283 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: as data centers proliferate, utilities turn to gas-fired power to meet demand. Archived.

The growing number of energy-intensive data centers coming online across the U.S. is spurring utilities to ramp up their plans for adding new sources of power generation — including a slew of gas-fired plants — and also complicating their efforts to rely more on renewable resources and decarbonize the power grid. The push to quickly develop new energy infrastructure is also running into well-documented issues with permitting such projects. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the proliferation of massive data centers — many of them catering to the surge in interest in artificial intelligence (AI) — and what that means for utilities and power-related demand for natural gas. 

U.S. electricity consumption totaled 4.07 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, the highest on record and 14 times greater than in 1950, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). As shown in Figure 1 below, electricity use increased in all but 11 years between 1950 and 2022, although the recent trends tell a more complex story — eight of those year-over-year decreases have occurred since 2007 thanks to efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce power usage. But things are changing, and quickly.

U.S. Electricity Retail Sales to End-Use Sectors, 1950-2022

Figure 1. U.S. Electricity Retail Sales to End-Use Sectors, 1950-2022. Source: EIA

The EIA expects the U.S. to set new power-demand records in 2024 and 2025, and fast-rising demand from AI-focused data centers, electric vehicles (EVs) and the “electrification of everything” strongly suggest that we’re in for an extended period of power-generation development. The EIA sees U.S. energy consumption steadily increasing through 2050, with electricity playing an increasingly large role.