Updates
July 27, 2022: well, that was fast. The market just blew through $9-natural gas.
Original Post
The WTI-Brent spread is running $8.
Last month, Russian crude was selling at a $30 discount. Now? Eight bucks.
All three data points tell me one thing: oil and natural gas is getting tighter in Europe.
And then this:
Reporting "monster wells": about two years ago, before the Covid-19 lock downs, I mentioned that we were going to see a lot of wells going over the cumulative milestone of 500,000 bbls of crude oil. That was delayed, of course, because of the global pandemic. Now, with things getting back to normal, we are now seeing many, many wells going over that 500,000 bbls of crude oil threshold. That number is becoming so great, that as a general rule, I won't be posting wells that go over 500,000 bbls effective today. It would be just too many. I can't decide if I will even bother with 750,000 bbls milestone.
Wells with jump in production ("halo effect"; advantaged oil). I've been posting those wells at this site. Likewise, there are just too many wells that fit that this description and I just don't have time to post them any more. These wells will continue to be tagged so they can easily be found.
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 16 | 4763 | 4566 | 14890 | 4193 | 3560 | 151 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 0 | 0 | 309 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 25 | 7113 | 7109 | 19084 | 7629 | 6449 | 449 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 9267 | 9325 | 20622 | 9526 | 7748 | 804 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 29 | 13366 | 13219 | 29551 | 12601 | 9932 | 1294 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 23 | 7645 | 7602 | 28538 | 8418 | 7027 | 601 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 22 | 634 | 551 | 634 | 644 | 462 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 29 | 814 | 950 | 916 | 843 | 592 | 35 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 26 | 748 | 735 | 951 | 726 | 451 | 77 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 22999 | 22860 | 38926 | 22604 | 21741 | 197 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 14 | 4909 | 4948 | 9552 | 4020 | 3815 | 51 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 17574 | 17579 | 30442 | 14333 | 13643 | 201 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 15950 | 15971 | 32823 | 14512 | 14049 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 24352 | 24337 | 51384 | 21046 | 20358 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 21 | 23756 | 23617 | 50964 | 19920 | 18265 |
Stripper well status: November 14, 2014.
Nothing in the file report to explain jump in production. Multiple wells have been recently fracked.
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 11304 | 11432 | 18561 | 14704 | 12304 | 1226 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 27 | 14631 | 14588 | 20007 | 15769 | 13618 | 753 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 18491 | 18387 | 31593 | 19058 | 13755 | 3526 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 17 | 7566 | 7564 | 19481 | 7865 | 6546 | 559 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 13 | 7090 | 6931 | 26939 | 7567 | 6197 | 729 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 23 | 525 | 559 | 434 | 656 | 539 | 24 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 26 | 767 | 842 | 446 | 777 | 663 | 11 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 230 | 173 | 692 | 905 | 764 | 57 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 31 | 868 | 796 | 848 | 1023 | 869 | 16 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 21 | 742 | 678 | 766 | 675 | 556 | 19 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 15 | 139 | 168 | 105 | 63 | 49 | 5 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 319 | 436 | 216 | 257 | 208 | 11 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 663 | 721 | 534 | 745 | 613 | 29 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 31 | 702 | 672 | 689 | 896 | 765 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 30 | 646 | 846 | 632 | 890 | 682 | 52 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2020 | 31 | 776 | 774 | 683 | 1001 | 702 | 122 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2020 | 30 | 907 | 838 | 770 | 1021 | 623 | 217 |
So the question is, regarding President Biden and Covid-19:
Advantaged oil: I've rarely seen this term used; I believe Shell was one of the first to use it -- several years ago. Hadn't see the phrase used much; I have a tag "advantaged oil" and was thinking of getting rid of it because I seldom saw it in use. Then today, I saw "advantaged oil" used again, but forgot to get the link. So, I get the term is still occasionally used. So, let's take a look: wow, this is simply amazing, and I completely missed it. Link here.
From March 30, 2021.
A complex mix of geologic factors is in play. Relationships between reservoir geology and performance are strongest when the data are filtered by region or resource theme. And it’s only by looking at a wide population of similar reservoirs that operators can benchmark recovery factors – and pick out an asset, portfolio or play that presents an opportunity.
The scale of that opportunity could be huge. Brazil, for example, has by far the largest in place oil volumes, yet lags other leading deepwater countries in terms of average recovery factor. The prize for increasing deepwater field recovery to match international benchmarks would be enormous.
What are the subsurface factors that matter?
Our analysis focuses on three selected examples of key reservoir parameters that correlate with oil recovery factors.
These are:
- Porosity
- Reservoir depth
- Gross depositional environment (GDE)
Globally, the average oil recovery factors for combined primary and secondary recovery are around 32%. Increasing the recovery factor of maturing projects could significantly boost the economics of a mature asset. We can see this illustrated in our exploration of these three key subsurface factors.
A neighboring well, drilled in 2011, to the well below (#37283) showed a nice halo effect:
The older well:
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 31 | 11646 | 11549 | 6646 | 15641 | 7766 | 6466 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 11115 | 11078 | 6404 | 15021 | 6477 | 7296 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 10799 | 10816 | 6424 | 15031 | 3454 | 10567 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 30 | 11209 | 11185 | 7368 | 14264 | 2524 | 10685 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 31 | 12821 | 12805 | 12606 | 16243 | 3870 | 11348 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 28 | 13030 | 13035 | 18388 | 18162 | 5495 | 11691 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2019 | 31 | 13844 | 13820 | 31963 | 15589 | 5489 | 9150 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2018 | 13 | 6870 | 6802 | 18265 | 6607 | 3321 | 2866 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2018 | 1 | 403 | 439 | 586 | 403 | 4 | 397 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2018 | 8 | 3648 | 3608 | 15270 | 4939 | 0 | 4928 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2018 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 26 | 1597 | 1673 | 349 | 2446 | 1950 | 99 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 31 | 2352 | 2418 | 285 | 3433 | 2773 | 149 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 30 | 2648 | 2608 | 307 | 3384 | 2548 | 283 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 31 | 2603 | 2585 | 378 | 3412 | 2587 | 278 |
The new well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 5-2022 | 31 | 6988 | 6928 | 9927 | 29582 | 26022 | 2506 |
| SANISH | 4-2022 | 23 | 4482 | 4216 | 4884 | 25505 | 22760 | 2074 |
| SANISH | 3-2022 | 31 | 7886 | 7941 | 6851 | 37693 | 36532 | 0 |
| SANISH | 2-2022 | 28 | 8391 | 8336 | 6974 | 40125 | 38958 | 0 |
| SANISH | 1-2022 | 31 | 11191 | 11554 | 10813 | 41753 | 40250 | 0 |
| SANISH | 12-2021 | 31 | 12676 | 12404 | 11022 | 44587 | 42612 | 378 |
| SANISH | 11-2021 | 30 | 12193 | 12213 | 10345 | 46760 | 41518 | 3677 |
| SANISH | 10-2021 | 31 | 11728 | 11810 | 9292 | 55080 | 53523 | 0 |
| SANISH | 9-2021 | 30 | 12924 | 12794 | 9394 | 51480 | 49046 | 826 |
| SANISH | 8-2021 | 24 | 11924 | 11991 | 7233 | 36394 | 34009 | 1460 |
| SANISH | 7-2021 | 31 | 15526 | 15389 | 7629 | 53782 | 52548 | 0 |
| SANISH | 6-2021 | 30 | 16789 | 16747 | 10131 | 57442 | 56148 | 0 |
| SANISH | 5-2021 | 31 | 21492 | 21795 | 13035 | 64637 | 62124 | 948 |
| SANISH | 4-2021 | 30 | 26054 | 25939 | 17304 | 66059 | 63853 | 403 |
| SANISH | 3-2021 | 31 | 37611 | 37500 | 21909 | 75255 | 72303 | 503 |
| SANISH | 2-2021 | 28 | 51347 | 51503 | 26626 | 85579 | 82411 | 0 |
| SANISH | 1-2021 | 30 | 47626 | 47569 | 35867 | 68519 | 64385 | 1174 |
| SANISH | 12-2020 | 22 | 50286 | 50164 | 52952 | 65042 | 60626 | 1392 |
| SANISH | 11-2020 | 7 | 8995 | 9186 | 4539 | 13254 | 11316 | 1391 |
| SANISH | 10-2020 | 31 | 68977 | 68939 | 27159 | 90000 | 85824 | 0 |
| SANISH | 9-2020 | 30 | 110439 | 110134 | 56589 | 137824 | 130303 | 1077 |
| SANISH | 8-2020 | 15 | 28319 | 27932 | 19975 | 30120 | 26611 | 181 |
Advantaged oil: I've rarely seen this term used; I believe Shell was one of the first to use it -- several years ago. Hadn't see the phrase used much; I have a tag "advantaged oil" and was thinking of getting rid of it because I seldom saw it in use. Then today, I saw "advantaged oil" used again, but forgot to get the link. So, I get the term is still occasionally used. So, let's take a look: wow, this is simply amazing, and I completely missed it. Link here.
Refiners: Link here to Charles Kennedy.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $96.70.
Natural gas: $8.727
Active rigs: 46 or thereabouts.
New new permits, #39111 - #39115, inclusive:
... unemployment rate at record lows, 3.6%?
... more jobs than people seeking jobs?
... so much demand for workers, they can strike for 10% wage increases?
... recessionary talk driving prices down across the board?
... gasoline prices falling?
Utopia?
Without question, "themilliondollarway" blog is the best blog with regard to energy in general, and the Bakken specifically.
That opinion may be a bit biased.
But that doesn't mean it's not accurate.
If one is truly interested in the Bakken, and if one is not reading "themilliondollarway" blog daily ... well, what can I say?
Despite Freeport being "down," this is incredible.
Sunscreen: Trader Joe's $9 sunscreen all the rage, vs Supergoop's popular Unseen sunscreen at $36.
Saudi skyscraper: to be 1600 feet tall (80 stories?) and 75 miles long (no typo), two mirrored walls in the desert.
Services, oilfield: oil does not have to boom for these companies to thrive. Will make money even if oil goes to $40.
Notably, Halliburton’s operating margins—excluding charges related to its Russia exit—reached 14.2% in the second quarter, a milestone not seen since the peak of the fracking frenzy of 2014. Schlumberger’s latest quarterly operating margin of 17.1% was its highest since 2015.
Drilling activity still isn’t what it used to be. Baker Hughes data shows that there are 23% fewer oil rigs in North America today than there were three years ago and 58% fewer compared with 2014. While oil-field service revenues are nowhere near their peak eight years ago, many years of belt-tightening and efficiency-finding has meant the businesses are able to eke out more profit on less drilling activity.
That, and continued supply chain bottlenecks, are adding up to a lot of pricing power. Halliburton Chief Executive Jeff Miller repeatedly said on the company’s earnings call on Tuesday that the company’s equipment is “all but sold out” in the North American market for this year. The company has started talking to customers about purchases in 2023, which already looks like a tight year for equipment, according to Mr. Miller.
Sayonara: Baker Hughes has suspended all equipment and services contracts on Russian LNG projects. Link here.
Severe: gap between gasoline prices in US and EU. Link here.
Tea leaves suggest a tough quarter.
Recent links from MacRumors:
On the other hand:
Apple shares seem to reflect the adage, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news."
Far Side: link here.
WTI: $96.52
Natural gas: $8.46
Active rigs: 42 or thereabouts.
Tuesday, July 26, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 365 for the year
Monday, July 25, 2022: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 363 for the year
Sunday, July 24, 2022: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 362 for the year
RBN Energy: will the propane market be prepared for winter?
We are only two months away from the official start of propane heating season in the U.S., and inventories are 3.5 MMbbl lower than last year, or 2.6 MMbbl below the five-year week-on-week low. Volumetrically, it’s a story very much like last summer: Propane exports are running high and while production is up it’s not increasing fast enough to get inventories back to where we would like to see them. But propane prices are not behaving at all like last year. At this point in 2021, the price of propane was moving higher, both in absolute terms and relative to the price of crude oil. This year, prices have been falling for the past four months and are much weaker relative to crude than a year ago. With low inventories and low prices, what are the prospects for the propane market being prepared for the upcoming heating season? And what are the risks if there's a cold-weather surprise? We’ll consider those issues and more in the blog series we begin today, focusing first on how we got here.
Propane Exports, Seasonality and Inventories
The highly seasonal U.S. propane market is traditionally divided into two halves: April through September, when the industry builds inventories, and October through March, when inventories are drawn down to meet winter demand. About this time each year, the industry is laser-focused on the status and pace of inventory increases, and whether it looks like there will be enough supply to meet the expected surge in demand during the impending heating season, particularly if an unusual spell of sustained cold weather hits the market. In recent years this calculus has become increasingly complex as exports have overtaken total domestic demand for propane.
